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2006/10/13 市场评论

(2006-10-13 19:57:07) 下一个

2006/10/13 市场评论

NDX继续创了新高1727,仍然维持强势,期待涨至1750/1780前期头部或创新高后出现必须的调整,因为下周是OE周。NDX的主要成分股也支持这个可能:

MSFT今天创了4年来换算后的最高点(2004年11月MSFT有$3 special dividend),同时收盘也是4年来换算后的最高收盘,今昨两天各有100M以上的量,本是很好的现象。但今天收成长上影跳空垂线,使得个股走势有了一点隐忧,这需要以下两天来确认。日内5分钟图先果断拉高,然后横盘,量主要是在拉高过程中放出的。强势横盘后,无量跌了下来,不算很坏。如果往后两天不带量跌下$28.15,则还可肯定属于强势.

CSCO继续缩量小阳线创新高,强势依旧。

GOOG继续在$430-的W突破口缩量强势调整。

INTC平量收在$21.50之上,强势。但也可开始调整。

ORCL长下影小阳线缩量创新高$19+,强势依旧。

SBUX回探跳空缺口已完毕,在$38前支撑线一带缩量调整,很强势。可以期待新年高!

CMCSA继续缩量创新高!

QCOM 突破$39 W颈线阻力线,期待在上探$41填补缺口后调整。

AAPL增量长上影跳空阴线,可上可下,可调整,不是很明朗。

AMGN不明朗。

EBAY/DELL也成短线强势欲突破状态。

YHOO呈连跌后的放量短线反转形态。

SP500小阳线创新高,依然强势。各个股和板块情况:

GE ER后跳低空开盘带量长下影反转小阳线。后市看涨。
PG 长下影再探$62支撑线,期待就地反转。

JNJ长上影阴线,要续跌. PFE连跌后阳线反转,MRK创了新高.BBH到了186前期高点附近。根据PFE/MRK的情况可能会反转。

C放量下探$50支撑线,是否反转,还需观察。JPM创了新高。BAC今日小阳线反转下探$54支撑线完毕。WFC强势调整。WB两根小反转阳线下探$56完毕,要突破了。USB创新高后强势调整。WB欲突破$43.50一带的调整带。XLF创了新高。BKX欲突破115.

XOM突破了$68 W颈线。CVX跳空小十字阴线收在$64前期跳空落点以上且跳空被填补。虽然稍弱一些,也属强势。COP收在$60支撑线以上。MRO强势。OIH跳空长上影小阳线上探130阻力线,暂且没有把握马上突破。

综上所述,金融板,制药板,石油板皆无走弱的迹象。依然保持罕见的三个主要板块同时坚挺的局面。SP500新高可待!

NDX各强势股如CSCO/GOOG/MSFT/ORCL/SBUX/QCOM/INTC连续强势拉升,回调幅度很小。且ORCL/SBUX跳空不回补,颇有轧空意味,特别象MSFT/ORCL/CSCO如此大的流通盘,维持这种强势,非常罕见。当然,也见主力资金拉高指数的决心!

 需要留心的是10/20 OE day象2006/01/20那样单日反转。4个交易日后10/26 MSFT盘后出报表,很好的timing?

*************************************************************
Just saw AH news out on Vista shipping on time. This reminds me of that MSFT was intentionally held down today. Level 2 today saw huge blocks on the sell of 250K+ shares but as the stock price got close the blocks just disappeared and they were not sold. They were only put out to show sell interest and scare the individual investor into selling...

From TA perspective, volume never lies! The fact that the solid volume yesterday and the first 2/3 day of today drove the price to $28.50-$28.60s level explicitly tells the true story!

The majority of analysts didn't think MSFT could launch Vista in January. On the initial plan, Vista was supposed to ship in August 2003 (when XP was released in 2001) and it was delayed a few times. Now finally it comes...

A good timing to release this "news" and a good excuse to pump MSFT and index hard...

MSFT Oct. $30 call MSQJK 单日成交量26K @ $0.05 全部成交于 11:35am, MSFT跌下$28.55拉回的瞬间!
MSFT Oct. $27.50 call MSQJY 单日成交量17K 绝大部分成交于 12pm之前, MSFT拉高盘整时段!
也就是说后来MSFT日内下跌时几乎没有这两个strike price call的成交!

Both MSFT and NDX/Naz may well gap up next Monday. MSFT is a rocket ready on the launching station with the engine being ignited on Monday...

Shorts, it's a cruel world. Who says life is fair?

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