ValuationonlyHALFrecoveredfromAprillowthankstostrongearningswhilepricehasmorethanrecovered-onereasonIstilllikeUSequities,andmag7andtech.Concentrationisafeaturenotabugofthisphaseofaitransformation. [阅读全文]
狮山巡礼
投资杂谈
博文
(2025-07-20 15:49:15)
ValuationonlyHALFrecoveredfromAprillowthankstostrongearningswhilepricehasmorethanrecovered-onereasonIstilllikeUSequities,andmag7andtech.Concentrationisafeaturenotabugofthisphaseofaitransformation. [阅读全文]
(2025-07-20 10:11:35)
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/usa-today_nvidia-ceo-believes-us-tech-companies-will-activity-7349860118198423554-ytm9?utm_medium=ios_apprcm=ACoAAACEHzkBXhlhaZoeLN_zh4yLN3PtB_A5MK4utm_source=social_share_video_v2utm_campaign=copy_link
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(2025-07-20 10:11:18)
投资过程往往能直视人的弱点，贪婪与恐惧就像一对孪生兄弟形影不离，该贪婪时不敢进场重仓，该恐惧时依然贪心不已不收手
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(2025-07-20 05:38:09)
Inthecomingweeksbothbullsandbearswillprobablyberightatsomepoint,andIstayriskontacticallybecause:?
Fundamentalsholdingup,earningsexpectationsof5.8%Q2YoYforSPXlookingverybeatable,andmag7valuationof30xfwdp/emidrangesincelaunchofChatGPT;
USdebtsustainabilityconcernwillhelpminimiseextremelefttailsduringtariffnegotiations;
Thishasnotbeenaheavilyparticipatedrally,positioningnowhereasstretchedcom...[阅读全文]
(2025-07-20 05:37:57)
U.S.inflationwilllikelyfallquicklyasprojectedbythebondmarket(Seechartonleft)butmanyhavecasttheirdoubts,raisingthequestionwhethertheinflationbreakevenratesareaccurateatallinprojectionactualinflation. China’sexporttotheU.S.hasdroppedtolessthan3%ofChineseGDP,butWallStreet’sexposuretoChinahassteadilyrisen.? ? Today,over7%ofSP500’srevenuecomesfromChina.Weknowthattheaverageoperatingleveragef...[阅读全文]
(2025-07-19 08:27:55)
人生确实不只是追逐结果，而是如何在每一个当下找到意义、活得充实
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Twenty-eightyearsago,apivotaldecisionalteredthecourseofmyfuture.Investinginmyfirststockin1997kickstartedatransformativejourney.Thereturnsfromthisinvestmentplayedavitalroleinfundingmywife'sandmygraduateeducation,markingasignificantturningpointinourlives.
Backintheearly1990s,whentheopportunitytopursueaPhDinbiologyintheUSaros...[阅读全文]
(2025-07-18 20:27:48)
Buyprotectionwhenyoucan,notwhenyoumust That'swhateveryriskmanagerpreaches. Yethereweare,SPputsatmulti-yearlows,andnobodywantsthem. Classicherdbehaviour. Marketsareripping.VIXissleepwalking.Everyone'sforgotten2022evenhappened. Buthere'sthethingaboutcheapinsurance:it'sonlycheapwhenthehouseisn'tonfire. Rightnow,95%SPputsaretradingatlevelswehaven'tseenforawhile. Meanwhile...[阅读全文]
(2025-07-18 05:39:37)
(2025-07-18 04:15:08)
Theequitymarketissignalingoptimism,withcyclicalsoutperformingandtheSP500nearrecordhighs.Yet,theinterestratemarketsuggestscaution,anticipatingFedratecuts.Thisdivergencebetweenequitiesandratesraisesacriticalquestion:istheFedmoreconcernedaboutmacroeconomicrisksthanthemarketrealizes? [阅读全文]
(2025-07-17 19:32:04)
媒体报道，美国总统特朗普正准备签署一项行政命令，计划将价值9万亿美元的美国养老金市场（俗称401(k))向加密货币、黄金以及私募股权投资开放。分析认为，此举将彻底改变美国人储蓄资金的管理方式。 据三位知情人士对媒体透露，特朗普最快本周就会签署该行政命令，允许401(k)退休计划投资于传统股票和债券之外的另类资产。这些可投资的资产类别将涵盖广泛领域，[阅读全文]
