By: Giorgio Provinciali
Live from Ukraine????????
（在过去的三年里，Giorgio Provinciali作为独立媒体一直在乌克兰战争的所有战线上进行报道。他们记录了战争的方方面面包括自卫装备、急救工具、车辆、燃料和基本物资。他们的报道工作包括超过2500篇文章和近130个视频录影，提供来自被轰炸城市和活跃战区的真实、第一手报道。
他们正在众筹，目标是购买和在他们的车辆上安装反无人机РЕБ设备，以免受激战地区的无人机攻击。我们计划使用的Reb Contra-drone 9 Ultra在多个频率（200-1200MHz、23902500 MHz和57255850 MHz）上运行，单价约为9,000欧元。他们经历了多次危及生命的险境，包括ДРГ伏击、距离400米的热压炸弹、在面前爆炸的炮弹，以及最近的FPV无人机袭击。在您的帮助下，他们可以继续提供来自乌克兰的关键的第一手资讯。
愿意支持他们工作的读者，下面是他们最新的捐款PayPal链接：https://www.paypal.com/pools/c/9ijrLlBdsL）
Pavlohrad Estonia is digging a nearly 40-kilometer-long anti-tank ditch near its southeastern border with the Russian Federation, planning to complete it within two years at the latest to prevent a potential breakthrough. Opposition parties have also introduceda bill in Tallinn calling for the immediate closure of that border.Poland has already closed its one, deploying over 40,000 soldiers on its eastern flank(10,000 of whom are provided by the rest of the Atlantic Alliance), welcoming part of the NATO contingent as part of Operation Eastern Sentinel.Warsaw and Bucharest are currently carefully considering the possibility of establishing a no-fly zone over the regions of Ukraine bordering Poland and Romaniato protect their airspace. They aim to neutralize any threats within Ukrainian airspace that are similar to or worse than those that have recently encroached upon their skies and resulted in crashes. Beyond this latest violation,the reason for such urgency is the joint exercise Zapad 2025(West 2025) involving the Russian and Belarusian armed forces, which also includes a 65-strong Indian contingent and several smaller delegations from China, Pakistan, and various African countries.
One only needs to examine the disposition of the troops and the placement of the launchers to see that these large-scale maneuvers are not just simple technical training exercises leading up to defensive drills, but ratherextensive preparation for offensive operations. The Russian Federation has gatheredarmored and motorized army corps near the Baltic states and Poland, establishinglogistics chains capable of withstanding possible preemptive strikes, rather than just conducting neutral exercises. Notably,the deployment of dual-use missile systems like the Iskander-M, which can launch either conventional or tactical nuclear warheads within a 500 km range, covers the entire Polish and Baltic regions, and even parts of central Germany.
During that exercise, Belarusian Chief of Staff Pavel Muravejko even boasted aboutdisplaying intermediate-range ballistic missiles capable of carrying strategic nuclear warheads, such as the Oreshnik (which was already launched on November 21st for experimental and intimidating purposes against the city of Dnipro). He explained thatdrones in various configurations were also actively used in those maneuvers.
At the same time,similar Russian attack drones struck the National University of Pharmacyin Kharkivs Slobidsky district yesterday in broad daylight. Others had preceded that brutal attack,destroying yet another point in the Epitsenter chain in Kyivovernight, bringing the total damage inflicted to that group to over a billion dollars.
What sets Zapad 2025 apart from earlier editions of such maneuvers is the theatricality of its political-military message. By showcasing even larger rather than hidden numbers and directly showing the international public how real those threats can be,Moscow aims to demonstrate its ability to turn these simulations into actual operations, still able to concentrate significant military power despite the war in Ukraine.
This perfectly exemplifies the well-known and frequently cited in our articles Russian practice ofmaskirovka, which is making something appear different from what it really is. Despite displaying their finest remaining silverware,Moscow and Minsk intentionally kept the number of troops in the exercise low to stay below the threshold set by the OSCE Vienna Documentregarding mutual trust and transparency among member states, knowing that going beyond that level would have triggered the mandatory presence of foreign inspectors.The Belarusian authorities ostentatiously invited American observers anyway, to farcely make it clear that there was nothing to hide in the exercise.
As the Ukrainian example demonstrates, however,when Moscow tries to draw international focus to one front, it is very likely they are quickly advancing on another.
This is a message NATO cannot afford to overlook.
Its clear that Zapad 2025 isnt just a normal training cycle. The real threat, however, isnt limited to the large-scale military drills that Moscow has slowed down, even partly, on the Ukrainian front. Instead, it lies inthe quiet preparations happening behind the scenes: integrating the Belarusian forces (and possibly the Indian ones, or smaller delegations from other countries) into the Russian command structure, testing logistics routes through the Suwalki Corridor, deploying electronic warfare and dual-use systems like those mentioned, and planning rapid, coordinated actions involving sabotage, cyberattacks, and energy blackmail.
To prevent a repeat of the Ukrainian crisis in the rest of Europe, we need to see beyond what Putin wants us to focus on.
北约开始挖战壕，伪装术于白俄罗斯粉墨登场
作者：Giorgio Provinciali
2025年9月17日
乌克兰现场报道????????
帕夫洛格勒-爱沙尼亚正在其东南部与俄罗斯联邦接壤的边境附近挖掘一条近40公里长的反坦克壕沟，计划最迟在两年内完成，以防止潜在的入侵行动。反对党也已在塔林提出一项法案，呼吁立即关闭该边境。波兰已经关闭了其边境，并在其东翼部署了超过4万名士兵（其中1万名由北约组织其他成员国派遣），欢迎部分北约特遣队加入东方哨兵行动。华沙和布加勒斯特目前正在仔细考虑在乌克兰与波兰和罗马尼亚接壤的地区设立禁飞区的可能性，以保护其领空。他们的目标是在乌克兰领空内消除侵入（波兰和罗马尼亚）领空并导致坠机的威胁，类似或更严重于最近发生的2起。除了最新的违规行为外，如此紧迫的原因是俄罗斯和白俄罗斯武装部队的联合军事演习Zapad 2025，其中还包括一支65人的印度特遣队和来自中国、巴基斯坦和非洲各个国家的小型代表团。
人们只需要看看部队的部署和发射器的位置，就会清楚这些大规模的调动不仅仅是旨在防御演练的简单技术训练，而更是为进攻行动所做的大规模准备。俄罗斯联邦已在波罗的海国家和波兰附近集结了装甲和机动军团，建立了能够承受可能的先发制人打击的后勤链，而不仅仅是进行中立的演习。值得注意的是俄军还部署了伊斯坎德尔-M等两用导弹系统，该系统可以在500公里范围内发射常规或战术核弹头，覆盖整个波兰和波罗的海地区，甚至德国中部部分地区。
在演习期间，白俄罗斯参谋长Pavel Muravejko甚至吹嘘展示了能够携带战略核弹头的中程弹道导弹，包括于11月21日针对第聂伯罗市发射的用于实验和威吓的奥列什尼克。他解释说，此次演习中还使用了各种配置的无人机。
与此同时，类似的俄罗斯攻击无人机昨天在光天化日之下袭击了哈尔科夫斯基斯洛比德斯基区的国立药科大学。早于那次残酷袭击的其他袭击一夜之间摧毁了基辅Epitsenter连锁店的另一个分店，使该集团遭受的总损失超过10亿美元。
（图：Alla进入乌克兰的一个苏联时代核设施，在地下一百多米处-版权所有照片Giorgio Provinciali）
Zapad 2025与之前此类演习的不同之处在于其政治-军事信息的戏剧性。莫斯科通过展示更大数量的武器而非遮遮掩掩，并直接向国际社会展示这些威胁的真实性，旨在证明其有能力将这些模拟转化为实际行动，尽管正在乌克兰交战，它仍然能够集中大量的军事力量。
这完美地体现了众所周知的并且经常在我们的文章中被引用的俄罗斯的伪装术，即让某事物看起来与其实际情况不同。尽管展示了他们剩下的最好的银器，但莫斯科和明斯克故意将演习中的部队人数保持在低于欧洲安全与合作组织（OSCE）《维也纳条约》设定的人限之下，该文件涉及各成员国之间的相互信任和透明度，因为他们知道超过该人限将引致外国检查员的强制监察。白俄罗斯当局还是炫耀性地邀请了美国观察员，以虚伪地表明演习中没有什么可隐瞒的。
（图：欧洲领导人讨论关于俄罗斯的战略）
然而，正如乌克兰的例子所表明的那样，当莫斯科试图将国际关注点吸引到一条战线时，他们很可能正在迅速推进另一个战线。
这是北约不能忽视的信息。
很明显，Zapad 2025不仅仅是一个普通的训练行动。其实，真正的威胁不局限于莫斯科在乌克兰前线已经放缓，即使是部分放缓，的大规模军事行动。相反，它在于幕后悄无声息的准备：将白俄罗斯部队（以及可能的印度部队，或来自其他国家较小的军团）整合到俄罗斯指挥结构中，测试通过苏瓦基走廊的后勤路线，部署上述电子战和双用途系统，以及计划涉及破坏、网络攻击和能源勒索的快速、协调的行动。
为了防止乌克兰危机在欧洲其他地区重演，我们需要看穿普京想要我们关注的目标之外的东西。
（图：我站在一个苏联时代导弹附近-版权所有照片Giorgio Provinciali）
