新叶投旅笔记
3 C's of life: choices, chances, and changes.
In the stock market, **mNAV** stands for **Multiple of Net Asset Value**. It is a valuation metric primarily used to assess companies that hold significant assets, such as Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies, relative to their market capitalization. The term has gained prominence with companies like MicroStrategy, which hold large Bitcoin reserves as part of their treasury strategy.[](https://protos.com/microstrategy-wannabes-and-the-return-of-mnav-mania/)[](https://medium.com/%40yves-andre.graf/explaining-the-mnav-as-strategys-main-valuation-method-b0f28f82f65d)
### Definition and Calculation
- **mNAV** is calculated as the ratio of a company’s **Enterprise Value (EV)** or **market capitalization** to its **Net Asset Value (NAV)**, where NAV typically represents the value of the company’s primary assets (e.g., Bitcoin holdings) minus liabilities.
- **Formula**:
- **Enterprise Value (EV)**: Market capitalization + total debt + preferred stock - cash.
- **Net Asset Value (NAV)**: Market value of assets (e.g., Bitcoin holdings) minus liabilities.[](https://medium.com/%40yves-andre.graf/explaining-the-mnav-as-strategys-main-valuation-method-b0f28f82f65d)
- For Bitcoin-focused companies, NAV is often approximated as the market value of their Bitcoin holdings, as these assets dominate their balance sheet.
### Key Points
- **Premium or Discount**:
- An **mNAV > 1** indicates the stock is trading at a **premium** to the value of its assets (e.g., an mNAV of 2 means investors are paying twice the value of the company’s Bitcoin holdings).
- An **mNAV < 1** suggests the stock is trading at a **discount** to its asset value.[](https://medium.com/%40yves-andre.graf/explaining-the-mnav-as-strategys-main-valuation-method-b0f28f82f65d)
- **Why a Premium Exists**: Investors may pay a premium due to:
- Expectations of future asset growth (e.g., a company increasing its Bitcoin holdings through debt or equity issuance).
- Confidence in management’s strategy (e.g., MicroStrategy’s "intelligent leverage" to acquire more Bitcoin).
- Market sentiment or speculative demand for exposure to Bitcoin via a publicly traded stock.[](https://creators.spotify.com/pod/profile/bitcoinnotcrypto/episodes/Why-MSTR-mNAV-actually-makes-sense-e2rhof7)[]
(https://finance.yahoo.com/news/microstrategys-nav-premium-shouldnt-feared-152629425.html)
- **Volatility**: mNAV can fluctuate significantly based on the stock price and the value of the underlying assets (e.g., Bitcoin price movements). It is often calculated daily but reflects market sentiment after the fact.[](https://www.reddit.com/r/MSTR/comments/1h8uird/mnav_think_of_it_like_a_mirrorit_reflects_stock/)
### Context and Use
- **Bitcoin Treasury Companies**: mNAV is particularly relevant for companies like MicroStrategy, Metaplanet, or Semler Scientific, which use their balance sheets to hold Bitcoin as a primary asset. Traditional valuation methods (e.g., price-to-earnings ratios) are less effective for these firms, as their value is tied to Bitcoin holdings rather than operational earnings.[](https://medium.com/%40yves-andre.graf/explaining-the-mnav-as-strategys-main-valuation-method-b0f28f82f65d)
- **Investor Insight**: mNAV helps investors gauge whether a stock is overvalued or undervalued relative to its asset base. For example, a high mNAV may signal speculative hype, while a low mNAV could indicate a buying opportunity if the company’s strategy is sound.[](https://blog.microstrategist.com/is-the-mnav-worth-it-introducing-days-to-cover-mnav/)
- **Days to Cover mNAV**: A related metric, introduced by Adam Back, measures how long it would take a company to accumulate enough Bitcoin (at its current rate) to justify its mNAV. For instance, a company with an mNAV of 4.26 and a daily Bitcoin yield of 0.88% would need 165 days to "cover" its market valuation.[](https://blog.microstrategist.com/is-the-mnav-worth-it-introducing-days-to-cover-mnav/)
### Example
- **MicroStrategy (MSTR)**: As of early 2025, MicroStrategy’s mNAV has ranged from 1.72x to over 3.4x, reflecting a premium over its Bitcoin holdings. Investors pay this premium expecting the company to grow its Bitcoin per share through financial strategies like convertible bonds or share issuance.[](https://protos.com/microstrategy-wannabes-and-the-return-of-mnav-mania/)[](https://www.strategy.com/notes)[](https://x.com/thepowerfulHRV/status/1925962503034438090)
### Limitations
- **Simplistic Metric**: mNAV ignores factors like debt, operational expenses, or other business obligations, making it a crude valuation tool.[](https://protos.com/microstrategy-wannabes-and-the-return-of-mnav-mania/)
- **Not a Driver**: mNAV is a **key performance indicator (KPI)** that reflects market sentiment rather than directly influencing stock prices.[](https://www.reddit.com/r/MSTR/comments/1h8uird/mnav_think_of_it_like_a_mirrorit_reflects_stock/)
- **Market Risk**: In a Bitcoin bear market, mNAV premiums can shrink significantly, as seen in 2022 when MicroStrategy’s mNAV dropped close to 1x.[](https://www.reddit.com/r/MSTR/comments/1fzgwk2/a_nav_explanation/)
### Sentiment on X
Recent posts on X highlight ongoing discussions about mNAV, particularly for MicroStrategy:
- Some investors view low mNAV (e.g., 1.72x) as a buying opportunity, citing favorable market conditions like Bitcoin ETF approvals or regulatory changes.[](https://x.com/thepowerfulHRV/status/1895212642098385002)
- Others caution against chasing high mNAV stocks (e.g., Metaplanet at 5.25x), warning of potential overvaluation.[](https://x.com/bariksis/status/1924854255279599920)
- There’s debate about whether mNAV expansion is sustainable, with some arguing it reflects confidence in long-term Bitcoin accretion strategies.[](https://x.com/RoaringRagnar/status/1918770216525258852)[](https://x.com/80IQmindset/status/1931326756947988865)
### Conclusion
mNAV is a specialized metric for evaluating companies with significant cryptocurrency holdings, offering insight into how the market values their assets relative to their stock price. While useful for Bitcoin treasury companies, it should be used alongside other factors like management strategy, leverage, and market conditions. For detailed mNAV data, investors can explore websites tracking historical values or company disclosures.[](https://www.reddit.com/r/MSTR/comments/1h8uird/mnav_think_of_it_like_a_mirrorit_reflects_stock/)
----------mNAV of MTPLF vs MSTR--------------
As of June 2025, the most recent data available on the market Net Asset Value (mNAV) for **Metaplanet Inc. (MTPLF)** and **MicroStrategy Incorporated (MSTR)** is as follows:
- **Metaplanet (MTPLF)**:
- Current mNAV: Estimates range from **4.56x** to **6.5x**, with a specific X post on June 8, 2025, citing an mNAV of **4.56x** based on data from @invest_answers. Another post on June 11, 2025, mentions an mNAV of **6.5x**, indicating potential volatility or differing calculations. Earlier web reports from May 2025 consistently cited an mNAV of **3.3x**, with projections suggesting it could reach **8.3x** if growth trends continue.[](https://coincentral.com/metaplanet-or-microstrategy-analyst-reveals-the-unexpected-leader/)[]
(https://x.com/BitcoinRobbie/status/1931743530143092804)
- Context: Metaplanet’s mNAV reflects its aggressive Bitcoin acquisition strategy, holding approximately **7,800 BTC** (valued at over $800 million as of May 23, 2025). Its smaller market cap (~$3.82 billion) and rapid Bitcoin yield (e.g., 2x yield in 3 months) contribute to a higher mNAV, signaling investor enthusiasm but also higher risk.[](https://coinpedia.org/news/metaplanet-stock-undervalued-despite-bitcoin-surge-says-investor-richard-byworth/)[](https://blog.wenxuecity.com/myblog/82763/202506/4536.html)
- **MicroStrategy (MSTR)**:
- Current mNAV: Estimates range from **1.70x** to **2.16x**, with an X post on June 8, 2025, citing an mNAV of **1.70x** from @invest_answers. Web sources from May 2025 report an mNAV of **2.16x**, taking 19 months to achieve, and another source mentions **2.1x** with a 626-day coverage period. An X post suggests MSTR’s mNAV could increase to **3x** or more, but current data leans toward the lower range.[](https://coincentral.com/metaplanet-or-microstrategy-analyst-reveals-the-unexpected-leader/)[]
(https://x.com/BitcoinRobbie/status/1931743530143092804)
- Context: MicroStrategy holds **576,230 BTC** (valued at over $59 billion as of May 23, 2025), with a market cap of ~$106.67 billion. Its slower Bitcoin yield (0.12% daily) and larger scale result in a lower mNAV compared to Metaplanet, reflecting more institutional confidence but less aggressive growth.[](https://coinpedia.org/news/metaplanet-stock-undervalued-despite-bitcoin-surge-says-investor-richard-byworth/)[]
(https://blog.wenxuecity.com/myblog/82763/202506/4536.html)[]
### Comparison
- **MTPLF mNAV (4.56x–6.5x)** is significantly higher than **MSTR mNAV (1.70x–2.16x)**, indicating that Metaplanet trades at a steeper premium relative to its Bitcoin holdings. For every $1 of Bitcoin held, investors pay $4.56–$6.50 for MTPLF versus $1.70–$2.16 for MSTR.
- **Bitcoin per Dollar Invested** (from @invest_answers, June 8, 2025):
- MSTR: **$0.59** of Bitcoin per $1 invested.
- MTPLF: **$0.42** of Bitcoin per $1 invested.[](https://x.com/BitcoinRobbie/status/1931743530143092804)
- This suggests MSTR offers more direct Bitcoin exposure per dollar at current valuations.
- **Days to Cover mNAV**:
- Metaplanet: ~**110 days** with a 1.5% daily BTC yield, reflecting faster accumulation.[](https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/05/21/days-to-cover-mnav-the-new-standard-for-evaluating-bitcoin-equities)
- MicroStrategy: ~**626 days** with a 0.12% daily BTC yield, indicating slower growth relative to its valuation.[](https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/05/21/days-to-cover-mnav-the-new-standard-for-evaluating-bitcoin-equities)
### Sentiment and Risks
- **Metaplanet**: High mNAV suggests speculative enthusiasm, with some X users warning against FOMO at an mNAV of 5.25x or higher, citing potential overvaluation. Its stock surged 255% in 2025, but high short interest (~30%) and volatility raise concerns about a possible correction.[]
(https://x.com/bariksis/status/1924854255279599920)
- **MicroStrategy**: Lower mNAV indicates a more stable valuation, with analysts maintaining a “Strong Buy” rating and a price target of $513.85. However, share dilution (42.35% increase in shares) and a $4.22 billion Q1 net loss pose risks.[](https://www.tipranks.com/news/uncategorized/microstrategy-and-metaplanet-pile-up-bitcoin-to-boost-holdings)[](https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NASDAQ-MSTR/)[]
(https://blog.wenxuecity.com/myblog/82763/202506/4536.html)
### Data Limitations
- mNAV values are snapshots and vary across sources due to differences in calculation (e.g., market cap vs. enterprise value, Bitcoin price fluctuations). The latest X posts (June 2025) provide the most current estimates but lack consensus.
- Metaplanet’s OTC market (MTPLF) has lower liquidity, which may inflate mNAV volatility.[](https://web3.bitget.com/en/academy/metaplanet-stock-price-soars-in-2025-what-bitcoin-investors-should-know)
- MicroStrategy’s mNAV data is more consistent but still subject to Bitcoin price swings and capital raises.
### Conclusion
At current estimates, **Metaplanet’s mNAV (4.56x–6.5x)** significantly exceeds **MicroStrategy’s mNAV (1.70x–2.16x)**, reflecting Metaplanet’s faster Bitcoin accumulation and higher market premium. MSTR offers better Bitcoin exposure per dollar invested ($0.59 vs. $0.42), making it a more conservative choice, while MTPLF’s higher mNAV and growth potential come with greater risk and volatility. Investors should monitor Bitcoin price trends and company-specific risks like dilution and short interest.
For real-time updates, check sources like Microstrategist.com or Bitcoin Treasuries, as mNAV can shift rapidly with market conditions. If you need a deeper analysis of either stock or specific data points, let me know!
