Americans barely own gold — and that means prices could clim

Americans barely own gold and that means prices could climb even further, Goldman says

• Americans barely own gold. That could supercharge the metals next move, according to Goldman Sachs.

• Gold ETFs are just 0.17% of US portfolios and physical gold buying is low.

• That means even small inflows into the metal could push prices sharply higher.

Golds record rallythis year has grabbed headlines, but American investors barely own any of it, which means the yellow metals price could have more room to run, according to Goldman Sachs.

Even with gold hitting repeated highs, US ownership hasnt budged much. Gold ETF exposure is stillsix basis points, or 0.06 percentage points, below its 2012 peaksince the launch of gold ETFs in the mid-2000s, according to Goldmans analysis published on Wednesday.

The low gold allocation is simply because portfolio growth has outpaced gains in gold prices and volumes over the past decade, Goldmans analysts wrote.

And while gold has surged to new all-time highs in 2025, Goldmans analysis shows that the rally hasnt translated into meaningful increases in actual US ownership.

Gold ETFs make up just 0.17% of private US financial portfolios as of the second quarter a microscopic slice of the roughly $112 trillion Americans hold in stocks and bonds, according to Goldmans analysis.

Goldmans data also shows that fewer than half of large US institutions managing over $100 million hold any gold ETF position at all. Among those that do, allocations typically sit between 0.1% and 0.5%. For major long-term investors, only about 0.2% of their portfolios are in gold.

Despite the social media buzz aroundCostco gold barsand US Mint coin sales, the report notes that physical gold demand in the US is tiny compared with ETF flows just 11 to 15 metric tons year-to-date, versus roughly 400 tons of net ETF buying.

That low ownership stands in sharp contrast to recommendations coming from major market voices, including Citi, UBS, Morgan Stanley, BlackRock, and Bridgewater founder Ray Dalio, advising investors to add gold to their portfolios.

The gap between those recommendations and reality is exactly what Goldman says could pushgolds next leghigher.

The bank estimates that every 1-basis-point, or 0.01 percentage point, increase in golds share of US financial portfolios would push gold prices up by about 1.4%.

Goldman argues that if households or institutions meaningfully boosted theirgold exposure as a diversifier especially amid global macro uncertainty, including concerns about the fiscal outlook such inflows could substantially raise prices in the small gold market.

The bank forecasts gold to reach $4,900 by the end of 2026, but says that forecast carries significant upside risk if private-sector buying broadens beyond the central banks that have dominated demand in recent years.

The spot gold price hit a record high near $4,400 per troy ounce in late October and has since pulled back to around $4,220 per ounce. Prices are up 60% so far this year.