????????????????: ???? ???????????????????????????????????? ????

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/john-haslett-ca-sa-frm-717b2535_the-10th-man-ugcPost-7407643448847015936-w_Ff?utm_source=shareutm_medium=member_iosrcm=ACoAAACEHzkBXhlhaZoeLN_zh4yLN3PtB_A5MK4

????????????????: ???? ???????????????????????????????????? ????????????????????????... ???????????? ???????????????? ???????????? ????????????????????????????????????????????????

My feed right now is basically Outlook Season or posts that collate all these , a never?ending thread of PDFs where the logo changes, but the conclusions dont vary much .

Every December, the same ritual begins.

???????????? ???????????????????? ???????????????? ???????????????????????????? ???????????????????????????? ????????:

When everyone agrees, its usually a good idea to at least explore why the group could be wrong. Akin to the idea of the 10th man . The 10th Man idea emerged after the 1973 Yom Kippur war to counter severe intelligence failures caused by groupthink, mandating that if nine experts agree, the tenth must argue the opposite to challenge assumptions and prevent surprise attacks, a concept popularized by the movie World War Z.

Going through the Alpine Macro and Chen Zhaos recent 2026 Outlook I have extracted and provided below a highlights reel of ???? contrarian views, where they have challenged the consensus. To be clear they dont just act contrarian for the sake of it and I have focussed on specific views that differ from the herd for this post.

ie Not the narrative youll hear on CNBC/Bloomberg.
Not the forecasts youll read on linkedin. (If I had a dollar for every cicular AI investment graphic ive seen pop up, I could fund these hyperscaler ambitions myself )????

This is instead a series of high-conviction, more uncomfortable calls that might define the next 12-18 months.

From an AI-led disinflation shock
To the AI bubble is not about to pop and a melt-up in equities is possible for 2H 2026
To industrial metals quietly outpacing gold
To China tech trading at a 45% discount with stronger earnings growth than the SP

Which one do you think the herd has most wrong?

None of this is a crystal ball , its just a reminder that consensus is comfortable, and markets rarely pay you for comfortable.