Fed Funds: Futures Implied Probabilities

This chart shows how markets are positioning for the Feds rate path ahead, based on CME Group futures data:

September 2025:
80.3% probability of no change target range remains at 5.255.50%.

December 2025:
Shift toward a 4.755.00% range, but no clear majority.

March 2026:
Most likely range drops to 4.004.25%.

September 2026:
Expectations widen significantly pricing spans 3.004.25%.

???? This is not a forecast its a snapshot of trader positioning via fed funds futures. The implied path points to gradual easing in 2026, not a rapid pivot.

???? With inflation cooling and growth slowing, rate cut expectations are evolving in real time.

???? Key catalysts:
CPI on August 13
Jackson Hole symposium (August 2224)

Are market expectations realistic or overly cautious?