中国是第一个系统地消除每一个压力点的国家

https://x.com/RnaudBertrand/status/1977266253837251066?

Arnaud Bertrand @RnaudBertrand

Here's a question I know many are wondering about: why did China wait until now to use rare earths as leverage against the US? Why not in the first Trump administration when the US started the trade hostilities? Or when the Biden administration unleashed the chips export controls 3 years ago?

 

I just watched a fascinating explanation by a Chinese analyst and, unexpectedly, a big part of the explanation is... helium.

 

I had no idea but as he explains (source here:

 

https://xiaohongshu.com/discovery/item/68ea3495000000000303b044?source=webshare&xhsshare=pc_web&xsec_token=CBLZXo_5up3BGAPXAS2CwmEtSVmIyGanbvYPL_ni6nqA0=&xsec_source=pc_share…), all the way until 2022 China imported 95% of its helium and most of it was controlled by the US. Of the world's ten largest helium producers, four were American companies, and the remaining six all used American technology.

 

Helium isn't just a party balloons gas: it has plenty of industrial applications for things such as quantum computing, rocket technology, MRI machines, as a coolant for chip lithography equipment, etc.

 

In a nutshell what he's explaining is that with helium the US had an even stronger card to play if China ever used the rare earths card.

 

This raised huge alarm bells inside China. In an article published in late 2022 in the journal Frontiers in Environmental Science (https://frontiersin.org/journals/environmental-science/articles/10.3389/fenvs.2022.1028471/full…), several researchers from PetroChina’s Beijing-based Research Institute of Petroleum Exploration and Development stressed that China would be greatly affected if the US imposed a “stranglehold” blockade on helium exports.

 

So over the past few years there were gigantic efforts in China to break the "helium shackles," with seven helium extraction facilities going into production, and China also switching imports from the US in favor of imports from friendly countries like Russia.

 

China's research ecosystem also went into overdrive to find solutions to the helium dependency issues, with China's Academy of Sciences awarding its annual 2024 "Outstanding Science and Technology Achievement Prize" to a new helium extraction technology project (https://english.casad.cas.cn/newsroom/nc/202502/t20250228_902739.html…) because "these scientific and engineering achievements broke the long-standing monopoly of the US and ensured the security of China's helium resources" (https://guancha.cn/internation/2024_10_15_751771.shtml…)

 

The result: by the end of 2024 China had cut its helium dependence on the US to less than 5% (https://scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3282295/china-quietly-extracting-itself-us-helium-stranglehold-experts-say…). The "helium shackles" were broken.

 

That's what most people don't realize: power isn't about intentions or rhetoric - it's about what you can actually do. Many wonder why countries almost never retaliate when the US imposes sanctions or export controls. The answer is simple: they can't. They lack the alternatives, the technology, the supply chains.

 

China is the first country that systematically worked to eliminate every single pressure point, with humongous efforts. It's not just helium: it's chips, energy, telecommunication, pharmaceuticals, etc.

 

That's why the rare earth card can finally be played now. Not because China suddenly became aggressive, but because they have developed the capabilities to say "no."

 

Last word: as a European, this is both depressing and inspiring. Depressing because it highlights the immense magnitude of the task at hand to become genuinely sovereign and develop our own capabilities to say "no." Inspiring because China demonstrated that it can actually be done, and relatively fast if we execute competently. Although with the current crop of folks at the helm in Europe, that last part is admittedly a very, very big "if"...