风萧萧_Frank
以文会友
《经济学人》推出《展望世界2026》——富裕国家入不敷出，债券市场危机风险日益加剧
https://www.economist.com/worldahead2026
新闻稿由《经济学人》提供，2025年11月10日
伦敦，2025年11月10日/PRNewswire/——《经济学人》推出年度年终特刊《展望世界》，探讨将影响来年的重要主题、趋势和事件。《展望世界2026》是《经济学人》展望未来年刊的第40版，标志着该刊四十年来取得的出版成功。编辑提出的2026年十大主题及相关文章已于今日上线。
今年的《展望世界》将随11月15日发行的《经济学人》周刊印刷版一同发行，同时也将作为独立报刊亭特刊出售。
在今年的《展望世界》特刊中，主编汤姆·斯坦迪奇评论道：“2026年将是充满不确定性的一年，唐纳德·特朗普对地缘政治、外交和贸易领域长期既定规则的重塑持续引发全球性影响，也使这位总统始终处于全球关注的焦点。但这一年也预示着世界将走向何方。贸易战会导致经济放缓吗？人工智能会带来繁荣、萧条还是反弹？特朗普先生非常规的外交手段会给中东带来持久的改变吗？债券市场会否对那些入不敷出的富裕国家发出警告？这些问题的答案将决定未来几年全球事务的走向。《展望世界2026》分析了这些趋势以及其他趋势，并探讨了它们在未来一年给各国、企业和公民带来的挑战和机遇。”
《展望世界》杂志今年迎来第40个年头，探讨了广泛的议题，但其2026年的十大主题如下：
1. 美国建国250周年。在纪念美国建国250周年之际，共和党和民主党对同一个国家——美国——的过去、现在和未来可能会出现截然不同的描述，届时人们可能会听到截然不同的说法。
2. 地缘政治格局的演变。外交政策分析人士意见不一：世界是否正处于一场由美国和中国领导的新冷战之中？或者，特朗普式的协议是否会将地球划分为美国、俄罗斯和中国的“势力范围”，各自为政？这两种可能性都不大。
3. 战争还是和平？答案是肯定的。如果幸运的话，加沙脆弱的和平能够维持下去。但乌克兰、苏丹和缅甸的冲突仍将持续。俄罗斯和中国将通过在北欧和南海的“灰色地带”挑衅来考验美国对其盟友的承诺。随着战争与和平的界限日益模糊，北极、轨道、海底和网络空间的紧张局势都将加剧。
4. 欧洲面临的问题。所有这些都对欧洲构成特殊的考验。欧洲必须增加国防开支，保持与美国的关系，促进经济增长，并应对巨额赤字，尽管紧缩政策可能会助长极右翼政党的支持。欧洲还希望继续成为自由贸易和环保的倡导者。它无法同时做到所有这些。
5. 中国的机遇。中国自身也面临着通货紧缩、经济增长放缓和工业过剩等问题，但特朗普的“美国优先”政策为中国提升其全球影响力开辟了新的机遇。
6. 经济担忧。到目前为止，美国经济对特朗普关税的韧性比许多人预期的要强，但这些关税仍将抑制全球经济增长。富裕国家入不敷出，债券市场危机的风险日益增加。
7. 对人工智能的担忧。美国在人工智能基础设施上的巨额支出可能掩盖了其经济的疲软。泡沫会破裂吗？
8. 复杂的气候形势。将升温幅度限制在1.5摄氏度以内的目标已不可能实现，特朗普先生也对可再生能源深恶痛绝。但全球排放量可能已经达到峰值，清洁技术在全球南方蓬勃发展，企业将达到甚至超过其气候目标——但为了避免激怒特朗普先生，他们会对此保持沉默。地热能值得关注。
9. 体育价值观。体育通常能让人暂时忘却政治——但2026年或许并非如此。足球??世界杯由美国、加拿大和墨西哥联合举办，而这三个国家的关系十分紧张。球迷可能会选择不去现场观赛。在拉斯维加斯举行的“增强型奥运会”可能更具争议性：运动员可以使用兴奋剂。这算是作弊吗？还是仅仅有所不同？
10. 比 Ozempic 更好。更好、更便宜的 GLP-1 减肥药即将问世，而且还有药片形式。这将扩大药物的可及性。但服用这些药物也算是作弊吗？
今年的版本包含一个特别版块“2026 年地图”，探讨了地理因素在全球诸多领域中引人入胜的重要性。
Good Judgment 的“超级预测”团队以及一个关于全球值得关注的冲突的互动图表。
与往年一样，《经济学人》的记者们在“展望2026”特刊中邀请了来自政界、商界和科学界的领袖人物，他们在“特邀嘉宾”专栏中分享了他们对2026年的看法和预测：
欧盟委员会外交与安全事务负责人卡娅·卡拉斯；
加拿大总理马克·卡尼；
印孚瑟斯联合创始人兼董事长南丹·尼勒卡尼；
美国前政府律师杰克·戈德史密斯和罗伯特·鲍尔；
斯坦福大学美国历史学荣誉教授理查德·怀特；
国际货币基金组织总裁克里斯塔利娜·格奥尔基耶娃；
伦敦卫生与热带医学院疫苗人类学家海蒂·拉尔森。
The Economist launches The World Ahead 2026-with rich countries living beyond their means, the risk of a bond-market crisis is growing
NEWS PROVIDED BY Economist Nov 10, 2025
LONDON, Nov. 10, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- The Economist has launched The World Ahead, the annual special year-end issue from The Economist that examines important themes, trends and events that will shape the coming year. The World Ahead 2026 is the 40th edition of The Economist's future-gazing annual, marking four decades of publishing success. The editor's top ten themes for 2026 and the accompanying articles are online today on https://www.economist.com/worldahead2026.
This year The World Ahead will be included in The Economist's weekly print edition dated November 15th, as well as being sold as a stand-alone newsstand edition.
Commenting on this year's edition of The World Ahead, its editor, Tom Standage said, "2026 will be a year of uncertainty, as Donald Trump's reshaping of long-standing norms in geopolitics, diplomacy and trade continues to cause worldwide repercussions—and keeps the president in the global spotlight. But it also promises to be a year that tells us about where the world is heading. Will the trade war cause an economic slowdown? Will AI produce a boom, a bust or a backlash? Will Mr Trump's unconventional approach to diplomacy bring lasting change to the Middle East? Will the bond markets call time on rich countries that are living beyond their means? The answers to these questions will determine how global affairs unfold over the next few years. The World Ahead 2026 provides our analysis of these and other trends, and the challenges and opportunities they present to countries, companies and citizens in the coming year."
In its 40th year, The World Ahead edition discusses a broad range of topics, but its top ten themes for 2026 are as follows:
1. America's 250th. Expect to hear wildly diverging accounts of America's past, present and future, as Republicans and Democrats describe the same country in irreconcilably different terms to mark the 250th anniversary of its founding.
2. Geopolitical drift.Foreign-policy analysts are divided: is the world in a new cold war, between blocs led by America and China, or will a Trumpian deal divide the planet into American, Russian and Chinese "spheres of influence", in which each can do as they please? Don't count on either.
3. War or peace? Yes.With luck, the fragile peace in Gaza will hold. But conflicts will grind on in Ukraine, Sudan and Myanmar. Russia and China will test America's commitment to its allies with "grey zone" provocations in northern Europe and the South China Sea. As the line between war and peace becomes ever more blurred, tensions will rise in the Arctic, in orbit, on the sea floor and in cyberspace.
4. Problems for Europe. All this poses a particular test for Europe. It must increase defence spending, keep America on side, boost economic growth and deal with huge deficits, even though austerity risks stoking support for hard-right parties. It also wants to remain a leading advocate for free trade and greenery. It cannot do all of these at once.
5. China's opportunity. China has its own problems, with deflation, slowing growth and an industrial glut, but Mr Trump's "America First" policy opens up new opportunities for China to boost its global influence.
6. Economic worries.So far America's economy is proving more resilient than many expected to Mr Trump's tariffs, but they will dampen global growth. And with rich countries living beyond their means, the risk of a bond-market crisis is growing.
7. Concerns over AI.Rampant spending on infrastructure for artificial intelligence may also be concealing economic weakness in America. Will the bubble burst?
8. A mixed climate picture.Limiting warming to 1.5°C is off the table, and Mr Trump hates renewables. But global emissions have probably peaked, clean tech is booming across the global south and firms will meet or exceed their climate targets—but will keep quiet about it to avoid Mr Trump's ire. Geothermal energy is worth watching.
9. Sporting values. Sport can usually be relied upon to provide a break from politics—but maybe not in 2026. The football World Cup is being jointly hosted by America, Canada and Mexico, whose relations are strained. Fans may stay away. The Enhanced Games, in Las Vegas, may be even more controversial: athletes can use perf ormance-enhancing drugs. Is it cheating—or just different?
10. Ozempic, but better. Better, cheaper GLP-1 weight loss drugs are coming, and in pill form, too. That will expand access. But is taking them cheating, too?
This year's edition includes a special section, "Mapping 2026", which considers the intriguing significance of geography in a range of global the
"superforecasting" team at Good Judgment and an interactive graphic on conflicts to watch around the world.
As in previous years, The Economist's journalists are joined in The World Ahead 2026 by leaders from politics, business and science, who add their ideas and predictions for 2026 in "By Invitation" guest articles: Kaja Kallas, head of foreign affairs and security, European Commission; Mark Carney, prime minister of Canada; Nandan Nilekani, co-founder and chairman, Infosys; Jack Goldsmith and Robert Bauer, former US government lawyers; Richard White, emeritus professor of American history, Stanford University; Kristalina Georgieva, managing director, IMF; and Heidi Larson, vaccine anthropologist at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine.
