风萧萧_Frank
以文会友
加拿大制造业的未来 2023
Manufacturing Canada's Future November 2023
Alan Arcand
加拿大制造商和出口商协会首席经济学家
Alan Arcand 是国家政策团队的成员，负责制定和执行加拿大制造业协会 (CME) 的主要国家研究项目，进行 CME 的宏观经济分析以支持全国范围内的组织工作，管理我们的税收政策工作，并作为代表协会及其会员利益与政府和公众沟通的主要声音。
加入 CME 之前，Alan 在加拿大会议委员会 (The Conference Board of Canada) 工作了 19 年，担任过多个职务，包括市政研究中心副主任。Alan 的背景包括市政、区域和国家经济事务方面的专业知识，包括经济预测和分析。
Alan 拥有皇后大学经济学硕士学位。
关于加拿大制造商和出口商
自1871年以来，我们一直致力于为加拿大制造业和出口行业做出贡献。我们为他们的未来而奋斗，帮助他们节省成本，并帮助制造商发展壮大。
该协会直接代表全国2500多家领先企业。CME超过85%的会员是中小企业。作为加拿大领先的商业网络，CME通过包括成立加拿大制造业联盟在内的多项举措，覆盖了加拿大东西海岸地区超过10万家从事制造业、全球业务和服务业相关行业的企业。CME的会员网络约占加拿大制造业总产量的82%，占加拿大出口总额的90%。
执行摘要
制造业是加拿大经济的基石，在创造就业机会、促进创新和推动经济增长方面发挥着至关重要的作用。加拿大9万家制造业企业直接创造了加拿大实际国内生产总值（GDP）的9.5%，贡献了企业研发支出的四分之一，并占加拿大出口商品的60%。制造业的直接、间接和衍生影响合计占加拿大经济总量的27%。此外，制造业通过供应链活动和员工支出，雇佣了179万加拿大人，并创造了358万个就业岗位，无疑为加拿大各地社区做出了巨大贡献。
制造业生产 尽管制造业在加拿大经济中发挥着重要作用，但自21世纪初以来，制造业经历了长期投资疲软、生产力低迷和竞争力下降的困境。面对这一低迷时期，加拿大制造商和出口商协会（CME）及其会员公司于2016年启动了一项新战略，旨在利用第四次工业革命带来的机遇，推动制造业走上更强劲的增长之路。 “工业2030”战略是在一项全面的成员咨询和研究计划的基础上制定的，旨在更好地了解加拿大制造业面临的挑战，并最终向各国政府提出了一系列建议，旨在振兴加拿大关键的增长引擎之一——制造业。
自该倡议七年前启动以来，制造业产量有所增长，部分原因是报告部分建议的实施，但增长速度低于预期，总体落后于其他发达经济体。造成这种增长放缓的部分原因在于近年来一系列危机和挑战，这些危机和挑战严重考验了制造业的韧性，包括新冠疫情、供应链中断、劳动力短缺急剧加剧、地缘政治紧张以及气候变化和环境问题在国家和全球议程中日益凸显的重要性。但这也可以归咎于该行业多年来一直面临的持续存在且未得到解决的问题，例如劳动力挑战、相对较高的税负、监管环境不完善以及缺乏国家制造业战略，所有这些因素共同阻碍了企业投资。
值得注意的是，近年来全球经济遭遇的接连危机也使人们重新关注制造业的重要性及其在关键商品生产中的作用。事实上，这场疫情暴露了一个严峻的现实：加拿大制造业产能的下降使该国处于脆弱境地，各国政府都在争相采购关键物资和设备。值得庆幸的是，尽管环境充满挑战，许多加拿大制造商仍加紧生产，将生产转移到生产个人防护装备和其他必要物资，以保护一线工人并帮助患者。
致命病毒。尽管如此，这场疫情还是给加拿大的政策制定者敲响了警钟，提醒他们制造业在经济中的关键作用以及重建国家工业产能的迫切需要。
地缘政治紧张局势加剧，以及对关键商品过度依赖中国日益增长的担忧，是提升制造业重要性的其他主要趋势。正因如此，加拿大和其他发达经济体的政府都宣布将供应链核心环节回流或“友好”地转移到中国作为优先事项。全球竞相打造清洁、净零排放经济，一些人认为这是自工业革命以来最重要的经济转型之一，这也将制造业推到了政治议程的更高位置。全球对清洁技术的需求正在快速增长，这为加拿大发展经济和创造良好就业机会提供了重要机遇。
鉴于全球经济的动态变化，芝加哥商品交易所需要确保其代表加拿大制造商的倡导工作能够在这个快速变化的世界中继续取得成效。为了协助完成这项工作，加拿大制造业协会 (CME) 于 2023 年春夏与其会员公司开展了跨国磋商，充分利用他们的专业知识和行业经验。
在整个磋商过程中，一些一致且熟悉的主题再次印证了加拿大制造业面临的诸多问题，例如劳动力和技能短缺、繁文缛节和监管壁垒，以及缺乏投资于提高生产率的机械设备的动力。磋商还揭示了该行业目前面临的新挑战，包括住房短缺、市政当局对增长的主要阻碍作用，以及快速实现行业脱碳的压力日益增大。总而言之，如果加拿大制造业要保持长期竞争力，就需要政府采取新的政策建议来应对这些挑战。
通过应对这些挑战，制造商将能够抓住当前经济、地缘政治和环境趋势带来的机遇。因此，现在比以往任何时候都更需要各级政府与产业界合作，制定并实施一项全面的先进制造业国家战略。该战略包含22项建议，主要围绕以下四大支柱：
1. 扩大和提升加拿大制造业劳动力的技能。
2. 刺激创新、投资和先进制造技术的采用。
3. 鼓励国内制造业生产和增值出口。
4. 加快并扩大清洁技术激励措施，帮助制造商适应和推进加拿大的气候变化计划。
加拿大制造业协会 (CME) 认为，实施该战略及其建议将创造更具竞争力的商业环境，提高投资、创新和生产力水平，促进该行业的生产和出口，并有助于减少排放。鉴于制造业的深远影响，其复兴将有助于确保加拿大子孙后代的繁荣。
结论
自七年前启动“工业2030”战略以来，加拿大制造业面临着新的复杂挑战，包括全球疫情、地缘政治断裂、供应链中断、劳动力和技能短缺的急剧加剧，以及气候变化和环境问题在国家和全球议程中日益凸显的重要性。许多挑战，尤其是此次疫情，给加拿大的政策制定者敲响了警钟，提醒他们制造业在经济中的关键作用以及重建国家工业产能的迫切需要。
制造业面临的挑战也影响了更广泛的经济表现。事实上，加拿大商业部门的劳动生产率在过去10个季度中有9个季度出现下降，这是人均实际GDP连续四个季度下降和生活水平停滞的关键原因。如果不从根本上改变我们对劳动生产率和经济增长的态度，加拿大未来的繁荣将岌岌可危。
幸运的是，解决加拿大经济困境的方案触手可及：制定一项全面的先进制造业战略，应对制造业面临的核心挑战，并抓住当前经济、地缘政治和环境趋势带来的机遇。该战略及其建议为加拿大重振其关键经济增长引擎之一提供了愿景和路径。
加拿大制造业协会 (CME) 认为，实施制造业国家战略将创造更具竞争力的商业环境，提高投资、创新和生产力水平，促进制造业的生产和出口，并有助于减少排放。鉴于制造业的深远影响，其复兴将有助于确保加拿大子孙后代的繁荣昌盛。
Manufacturing Canada's Future
November 2023
Alan Arcand
Chief Economist Canadian Manufacturers & Exporters
Alan Arcand is a member of the National Policy team where he is responsible for developing and executing CME’s major national research projects, conducting CME’s macroeconomic analysis to support the organization across the country, managing our tax policy efforts, and be a leading voice representing the interests of the association and members with government and with the public.
Before joining CME, Alan spent 19 years at The Conference Board of Canada where he held multiple roles, including the Associate Director of the Centre for Municipal Studies. Alan’s background includes expertise in municipal, regional, and national economic matters including economic forecasting and analysis.
Alan has an M.A. in Economics from Queen’s University.
ABOUT CANADIAN MANUFACTURERS & EXPORTERS
Since 1871, we have made a difference for Canada’s manufacturing and exporting communities. Fighting for their future. Saving them money. Helping manufacturers grow.
The association directly represents more than 2,500 leading companies nationwide. More than 85 per cent of CME's members are small and medium-sized enterprises. As Canada's leading business network, CME, through various initiatives including the establishment of the Canadian Manufacturing Coalition, touches more than 100,000 companies from coast to coast to coast, engaged in manufacturing, global business, and service-related industries. CME's membership network accounts for an estimated 82 per cent of total manufacturing production and 90 per cent of Canada’s exports.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The manufacturing sector is a cornerstone of Canada’s economy, playing a crucial role in creating jobs, fostering innovation, and driving economic growth. The nation’s 90,000 manufacturers directly generate 9.5 per cent of Canada’s real gross domestic product (GDP), make up one-quarter of its business research and development spending, and account for 60 per cent of the country’s outbound goods. Taken together, the sector’s direct, indirect and induced impacts amount to 27 per cent of Canada's total economic activity. In addition, by employing 1.79 million Canadians and supporting 3.58 million more jobs through supply chain activity and employee spending, the manufacturing industry undoubtedly makes substantial contributions to communities across Canada.
Manufacturing production Despite its significant role in the country’s economy, the manufacturing sector suffered through a prolonged period of weak investment, sluggish productivity, and declining competitiveness starting in the early 2000s. As a result of this slump, Canadian Manufacturers & Exporters (CME) and its member companies launched a new strategy in 2016 with the goal of leveraging the opportunities presented by the Fourth Industrial Revolution and placing the sector on a stronger growth path. The Industrie 2030 strategy was developed following a comprehensive member consultation and research initiative to better understand the challenges facing Canada’s manufacturing sector, and it resulted in a set of recommendations to governments designed to revitalize one of the country’s key growth engines.
Manufacturing production has expanded since the initiative was launched seven years ago, aided in part by the implementation of some of the report’s recommendations, but the pace of growth has been weaker than desirable and generally lagging those of other advanced economies. Part of the blame for this subpar growth can be pinned on a number of crises and challenges that have severely tested the sector’s resilience in recent years, including the COVID-19 pandemic, supply chain disruptions, a dramatic spike in labour shortages, geopolitical fracturing, and the rising prominence of climate change and environmental issues on national and global agendas. But it can also be blamed on persistent and unaddressed issues that the sector has had to grapple with for years, like workforce challenges, a relatively high tax burden, a sub-optimal regulatory environment, and the lack of a national manufacturing strategy, all of which combine to deter business investment.
Notably, the succession of crises that have buffeted the global economy in recent years have also brought renewed attention to the importance of the manufacturing sector and the role it plays in the production of critical goods. Indeed, the pandemic laid bare a stark reality: the erosion of Canada’s manufacturing capacity left the country in a vulnerable position, as governments scrambled to source critical supplies and equipment. Thankfully, despite the challenging environment, many Canadian manufacturers stepped up and shifted production to make PPE and other supplies needed to protect front line workers and to help patients dealing with the deadly virus. Still, the pandemic served as a wake-up call for Canadian policymakers, a reminder of manufacturing’s critical role in the economy and the vital need to rebuild the nation’s industrial capacity.
Rising geopolitical tensions and emerging concerns about being overly dependent on China for critical goods are other major trends raising the manufacturing sector’s profile. This is why governments in Canada and in other advanced economies have declared it a priority to reshore or friend-shore core parts of the supply chain. The global race to build a clean, net-zero economy, which some consider to be one of the most significant economic transformations since the Industrial Revolution, has also pushed manufacturing higher up the political agenda. Global demand for clean technologies is increasing rapidly, representing a significant opportunity for Canada to grow its economy and create good jobs.
Given the evolving dynamics of the global economy, CME needed to make certain that its advocacy efforts on behalf of Canadian manufacturers would continue to pay off in a world of accelerating change. To help with this undertaking, CME embarked upon cross-country consultations with its member companies during the spring and summer of 2023, leveraging their expertise and industry experience.
Throughout the consultation process, consistent and familiar themes emerged that reaffirmed the welldocumented problems facing the manufacturing industry in Canada, such as labour and skills shortages, red tape and regulatory barriers, and the lack of incentives to invest in productivity-enhancing machinery and equipment. It also revealed new challenges that the sector is facing today, including housing shortages, the role of municipalities as a major obstacle to growth, and growing pressures to rapidly decarbonize the industry. Put together, these challenges require new policy recommendations for governments to act upon if the Canadian manufacturing sector is to remain competitive over the long run.
By addressing these challenges, manufacturers will be able to seize the opportunities presented by current economic, geopolitical, and environmental trends. Accordingly, now more than ever, all levels of government need to work together with industry to develop and implement a comprehensive national strategy for advanced manufacturing. The strategy includes 22 recommendations organized under the following four pillars:
1. Expanding and upskilling Canada’s manufacturing workforce.
2. Stimulating innovation, investment, and the adoption of advanced manufacturing technologies.
3. Encouraging domestic manufacturing production and value-added exports.
4. Speeding up and expanding clean technology incentives to help manufacturers adapt to and advance Canada’s climate change plan.
In CME’s view, implementing this strategy and its recommendations will result in a more competitive business environment, lead to higher levels of investment, innovation, and productivity, boost the sector’s production and exports, and contribute to emissions reductions. Given manufacturing’s far-reaching impact, its revival will help securre Canada’s prosperity for generations to come.
CONCLUSION
Since the launch of the Industrie 2030 strategy seven years ago, Canada’s manufacturing industry has faced new and complex challenges, including a global pandemic, geopolitical fracturing, supply chain disruptions, a dramatic spike in labour and skills shortages, and the rising prominence of climate change and environmental
issues on national and global agendas. Many of these challenges, especially the pandemic, served as a wakeup call for Canadian policymakers, a reminder of manufacturing’s critical role in the economy and the vital need to rebuild the nation’s industrial capacity.
The challenges that manufacturing has been facing has also affected the wider economy’s performance. In fact, labour productivity in Canada’s business sector has declined in 9 out of the last 10 quarters, the key reason real GDP per capita has decreased for four
consecutive quarters and living standards have stalled. Without fundamental changes to our approach to labour productivity and economic growth, Canada’s future prosperity is in jeopardy.
Fortunately, the solution to Canada’s economic troubles is at our fingertips: the adoption of a comprehensive advanced manufacturing strategy that addresses the
manufacturing sector’s core challenges and seizes the opportunities presented by current economic, geopolitical, and environmental trends. This strategy and its recommendations provide a vision and path for Canada to revitalize one of the country’s key economic growth engines.
In CME’s view, implementing a national strategy for the sector will result in a more competitive business environment, lead to higher levels of investment, innovation, and productivity, boost the sector’s production and exports, and contribute to emissions
reductions. Given manufacturing’s far-reaching impact, its revival will help secure Canada’s prosperity for generations to come.
