风萧萧_Frank
以文会友
美国外交政策的阴暗面
By Rishi Suri , a senior editor covering international affairs at The Daily Milap, India's oldest and largest circulated Urdu daily newspaper. 印度 2023 年 12 月 12 日https://www.globalorder.live/post/the-dark-side-of-america-s-foreign-policy
美国过去破坏民主国家稳定的努力构成了现代历史上复杂而有争议的一章，反映了地缘政治战略、意识形态斗争和经济利益的混合体。 这些努力的根源往往在于冷战背景下，美国出于遏制共产主义蔓延的愿望，在世界不同地区从事各种秘密和公开的行动。
从历史上看，第二次世界大战后的时期见证了美国作为全球超级大国的崛起。 这一时期的特点是以美国为代表的资本主义和以苏联为首的共产主义之间的意识形态斗争。 对多米诺骨牌效应的恐惧，即一个国家陷入共产主义，会导致其他国家效仿，这极大地影响了美国的外交政策。
美国干预的最著名地区之一是拉丁美洲。 1954 年，中央情报局支持的危地马拉政变推翻了民选总统雅各布·阿本斯，此类行动的理由是防止共产主义影响。 同样，1973 年在智利，美国支持军事政变，推翻了民选社会党总统萨尔瓦多·阿连德。
越南战争是美国的努力不仅仅只是破坏民主政权的稳定的另一个例子。 这是一次全面的军事干预。 美国支持南越政府对抗共产主义北越，导致了一场旷日持久且毁灭性的冲突。
在伊朗，1953 年由中央情报局和英国情报部门策划的针对总理穆罕默德·摩萨台的政变，旨在维持西方对伊朗石油资源的控制。 虽然摩萨台是民主选举产生的，但他对石油工业的国有化威胁到了西方的经济利益。
除了意识形态原因之外，经济利益往往在这些干预措施中发挥着重要作用。 确保友好政府可能意味着更容易获得自然资源、军事基地的战略位置和美国商品的市场。
这些干预措施对相关国家产生了长期影响。 它们常常导致压制政治自由和人权的独裁政权。 这些行动的影响继续影响着国际社会对美国的看法。
近年来，美国国内对这些政策的反思和重新评估日益增多。 承认过去的错误并转向更加合作和尊重的外交政策可以被视为解决历史恩怨的步骤。 美国过去破坏民主国家稳定的努力是由意识形态恐惧和经济利益共同造成的。 虽然这些行动被合理化为国家安全和全球稳定所必需的，但它们往往给相关国家带来负面后果。 理解这段历史并从中学习对于未来制定更加道德和有效的外交政策至关重要。
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西方外交政策的阴暗面
穆斯林 2024年2月10日
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3z3W4ijAvrQ
测量
如果你不选择接受这笔交易，请记住穆罕默德·摩萨德在伊朗发生的事情，请记住萨尔瓦多在智利发生的事情； 还记得阿尔班斯、危地马拉、ZM、越南和刚果的伦巴发生了什么吗？ 这些都是拒绝玩游戏并在政变或暗杀中被消灭的总统或总理，我将揭露西方外交政策的非常黑暗的一面。
现在我们马上就会明白我的意思，我将播放 pbd 播客中的一个片段，它体现了西方外交政策可怕的黑暗面。 他们不仅发动战争贿赂人民，它的意义远不止于此，我们将看到他们邪恶的总体计划是什么，他们在南美和中东等地对这些地区进行殖民化。
不同地区和国家以及他们的计划正是我们要去的
从某人那里亲眼目睹
在地面上做这些事情不是
只是一个阴谋论或
没有事实依据地谈论事情或
我们要向某人展示的证据
谁承认自己也是其中的一部分
但那里有你所知道的一切
我国有非常严格的反腐败法
当年的美国和我
我猜他们仍然是，但有很多
绕过它们的方法我们知道
所有这些绕过它们的方法让你
进去告诉总统这个
你这么说就买了这笔贷款，他
说但我们会解决这个问题
巨额债务，这意味着我们将
必须从教育中拿走钱
和社会服务和医疗保健
支付我们的债务利息
说是，但你 GNA 赚了很多钱
给你和你的家人钱，让他知道
他正在做某事
可能不会帮助他的人民
但这会帮助他然后你
也说但是如果你不选择接受
RO 这个呃如果你不选择的话
接受这笔交易记住发生了什么
给伊朗的穆罕默德·摩萨德记得什么
发生在智利的萨尔瓦多·安德身上
记住阿尔班斯发生了什么事
危地马拉和 ZM 以及越南和伦巴
在刚果，这些都是总统或
拒绝参加比赛的首相
游戏并在政变中被淘汰或
暗杀，所以基本上我们是
说记住有我们打电话给的人
基本上，豺狼在幕后
说嘿，总统先生，我在这手上
为你提供很多钱并且
你的朋友，但如果你选择的话
不要把它拿在手里我有一把枪
我实际上并没有带枪，但我知道
那些人基本上都是中央情报局的资产
我身后有枪，你知道
经典案例 最初的案例是
克米特·罗斯福谁穿越了
伊朗总理莫斯克并被替换
他带着煞神，这就是设定
先例和这些总统都知道
他们知道他们知道历史
他们知道如果这样的话他们会被带走
那么你知道帕特里克的选择是什么
你会怎么做这个人是约翰
帕金斯他写了一本书，叫做
经济杀手，他是
经济杀手长期以来
在美国工作了几年，他的工作是
去这些外国
基本上是贿赂他们以达成交易
说好的，我们可以这样做
引用 unquote 改善你的经济
并且会有优惠提供给
这些国家和这些外国
领导人 总统 首相 国王
等等，如果他们选择不听
他们或接受他们的交易 他做了什么
说他们会被杀，他们会
被其他人取代
愿意听从西方的命令
美国和英国等国家
法国和所有这些不同的国家
他们做这些事已经很久了
时间到了，我们看到一个人约翰·帕金斯
一位经济杀手写了一篇
整本书演示和解释
他过去所做的事情的细节以及
他说看我没带枪
我的手，但我会告诉这些人
他们清楚地知道会发生什么
如果他们拒绝接受我的交易但是
无论如何，让我们进一步听听他
更详细一点让我问一下
当你这么说的时候你好吗
对我这么说就像我了解你一样
刚才说了，你怎么说
如果我是伊朗贫民，而你是
和我坐在一起，你告诉我
这是选项让我如果你如果你
可以和我一起进行角色扮演吗？
就像你首先会怎么说
一切都与 sh 我们没有，我们没有玩
相当不错的比赛，因为他有很多
钱他不必借给我们
只是想让他相信他
他应该与我们合作，而不是与
苏联他应该让你知道
我们想要他的石油并且我们愿意
帮助他使他的国家西化，我们
不想 他不想去
苏联所以有点
不同的是我们会得到那一分钟给
我就是你所做的一个例子
我在说什么 假设我正在和他说话
你你是你你是你是你是
科利亚总统 好的，我们想要
在那里获取你的资源并且
我对你说我正在向你展示一切
这些精美的报告显示了
你的国家将会这么做，你也可以
向你们的媒体展示这些报告
你的人民 你可以说服你的人民
通过接受这些贷款，您
帮助你要去的国家
建造你要建造的这些大坝
建造这些大型电力系统
不管怎样，你得到了你得到了所有
你需要的材料在这里，就是它
通常是一系列会议，也许是一些
午餐时喝点鸡尾酒
等等，总统可能会选出一个
很少，然后你就有点
突然开始谈论你
你提出了发生的事情的话题
最近去了智利的萨尔瓦多或者什么
发生在阿尔班斯和格马尔身上取决于
你在世界的哪个部分
你谈论这些人并说
你知道这不是一种耻辱吗？
关于这个你知道一点
取决于总统不同
总统们，你的做法不同
但他们明白了 我的意思是他们知道
历史你不认识这些人
了解正在发生的事情以及他们的顾问
知道发生了什么，他们通常
开会时也坐在那里
非常聪明的顾问，可能就是你
知道上过商学院也一样
我去过的商学院等等
那里每个人你都知道我我
说西班牙语，但一半的人
房间里的人也会说英语
他们他们F你知道他们得到了
相同的背景，但我会说帕特里克
我提到我在书中谈到
两位没有玩游戏的总统
呃民主选举的总统
厄瓜多尔海梅·罗斯与国家元首
巴拿马 OM
maros 他们非常正直
看到了我想要做的事情，他们
没有这样做，他们理解
他们所面临的危险以及他们
谈论了这些事情并且两者
我相信他们是被暗杀的
他们都被拿出来了
两个差不多两个多月了
彼此分开在
1981年，他们被带出他们的
厄瓜多尔首架私人飞机配备 h
罗斯他的私人飞机坠毁得很厉害
可疑情况少于
三个月后同样的事情发生了
奥马尔·特罗斯，这些是吗？
只有两个人能挺身而出
说我们不会购买这些交易
事实公开了一个重要的观点
他们出去建立了关系
非常强烈的声明，他们设定了
世界的榜样，他们是
在这些飞机失事中被带走
尽管从来没有确凿的证据
成立
因为在一场空难中 确凿的证据
烟雾缭绕，飞机失事
私人飞机失事是最好的办法
刺杀某人，如果你曾经
决定你想做的事
因为证据已经消失了
但在呃至少其中之一的情况下
这些案例 H Ros 是计划的引擎
被送到 in in in 的一个实验室
瑞士或瑞典瑞士嗯和
他们的结论是，这架飞机没有
坠毁后它在空中爆炸了
所以嗯还有很多其他的
证据这是巨大的证据
这表明这些已经
暗杀所以你有它我
意味着他会讲更多细节
采访和讨论确实是
令人着迷，但它暴露了真正的黑暗
西方外交政策的一面
特别是美国他们
雇用像约翰·帕金斯这样的人
谁是经济杀手去这些
外国国家与他们坐下来
并说看这就是我们需要你做的
您需要接受这些贷款吗？
会借钱给你，你需要做的
XYZ 与它，我们会帮助您
XYZ 据说如果你不这样做我会
只是提醒你这位总统
神秘地死于飞机失事
你基本上知道这真是太遗憾了
让他们知道嘿伙计如果你不这样做
这样做你就是下一个，这就是发生的事情
也会发生在你身上，这不是
阴谋论 这是一个人
这实际上是他的工作
你知道人们谈论的几年
这些东西有时就像
阴谋论，但这是现实
当你看到某人实际上是
他的工作是听从美国的命令
这种时尚使它变得严肃
现实现在我们应该如此困惑吗
至于为什么许多穆斯林国家和穆斯林
统治者似乎在合作
至少与外国的议程有关
美国、英国等政府以及
他们所在的其他地方
受到压力也许他们受到威胁
我不知道所有的细节
每个国家都在发生但我想说
这以前发生过，我确信
目前很多地方都在发生这种情况
他们只是回顾了这件事是如何发生的
伊朗和其他许多国家
这不仅发生在
穆斯林国家一定要说话
关于南方很多国家
基本上发生这种情况的美国
一种勒索权利的方法
这些外国资源尝试得到
他们的钱基本上都花在了
挂钩以确保他们做任何事
美国告诉他们这样做，如果他们不这样做
他们会以一种方式摆脱你或者
另一个，你换成
愿意做自己的事的人
出价可能听起来很可怕
阴谋，但当你看到某人时
就像约翰·帕金斯所说的那样
关于这一点你意识到它不是
阴谋这是一个悲伤的现实
穆斯林需要团结起来反对这个你
知道我们需要找到一种方法
团结起来反对这一点，但显然
第一步是教育公众
到底发生了什么所以我建议
人们观看完整视频并且
进一步了解约翰·帕金斯
pbd 播客上的经济杀手不
我想推广这个播客但是
如果您有兴趣，请观看此特定视频
在阅读方面我推荐阅读他的书
也关于这个主题，我希望
这个视频教育了我的观众
你们更多地研究这些主题
并意识到这不仅仅是一个
这是严重的阴谋，我们需要
制定打击行动计划
那到底是怎么回事
伙计们说我感谢大家的观看
以及您持续的支持，但直到
下次安拉，我会见到你们所有人
再次
The Dark Side of Western Foreign Policy
The Muslim 2024年2月10日
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3z3W4ijAvrQ
转写文稿
If you don't choose to take this deal, remember what happened to Muhammad mosad
in Iran, remember what happened to Salvador a yende in Chile; remember what
happened to arbans and Guatemala and ZM and Vietnam and lumba in the Congo. These are all presidents or prime ministers who refused to play the game and were taken out in coups or assassinations I'm going to expose a very Dark Side of Western foreign policy.
Now we'll see just what I mean by that in a second and I'm going to play a clip from the pbd podcast that exemplifies the horrific Dark Side of Western foreign policy. They don't only start wars bribe people it goes much deeper
than that and we'll see what their evil
master plan is what they've done in
places like South America in the Middle
East in their colonialization of these
different regions and countries and just
exactly what their plan is we're going
to see it from somebody firsthand who's
done these things on the ground it's not
just a mere conspiracy theory or
speaking about things without facts or
evidence we're going to show you someone
who admits to being part of this himself
but so there were all the you know there
were very strict anti-corruption laws in
the United States in those days and I
guess they still are but there's so many
ways to get around them and we we knew
all those ways to get around them so you
go in and you tell the president this
you say so buy into this loan and he
says but we're going to take on this
huge debt and it means we're going to
have to take money away from education
and social services and and health care
to to pay the interest on the debt we
say yes but you're GNA make a lot of
money you and your family so he knows
that he's doing something that's
probably not going to help his people
but it's gonna help him and then you
also say but if you don't choose to take
the RO the this uh if you don't choose
to take this deal remember what happened
to Muhammad mosad in Iran remember what
happened to Salvador aende in Chile
remember what happened to arbans and
Guatemala and ZM and Vietnam and lumba
in the Congo these are all presidents or
prime ministers who refused to play the
game and were taken out in coups or
assassinations and so basically we're
saying remember there's people we call
Jackal behind the scenes so basically
say hey Mr President in this hand I'm
offering you a lot of money for you and
your friends but in and if you choose
not to take it in this hand I got a gun
I didn't actually carry a gun but I knew
those guys were basically CIA assets
behind me that had guns and you know the
classic case the original case was was
Kermit Roosevelt who who over through
prime minister mosc in Iran and replaced
him with a sha and that was that set a
precedent and these presidents all know
this they know they know the history
they know they will be taken out if so
so what's the choice you know Patrick
what would you do this guy is John
Perkins he wrote a book which is called
the economic Hitman and he was an
economic Hitman for a long time for
several years for the US and his job was
to go to these foreign Nations to
basically bribe them to give them a deal
to say okay here's the way that we can
quote unquote improve your economy
and there would be deals offered to
these countries and to these foreign
leaders presidents Prime Ministers Kings
Etc and if they chose to not listen to
them or accept their deal what did he
say they would be killed and they would
be replaced by somebody else who's
willing to do their bidding Western
countries like the US and the UK and
France and all these different countries
they've done these things for a long
time and we're seeing a guy John Perkins
who was an economic Hitman man wrote an
entire book demonstrating and explaining
the details of what he used to do and
he's saying look I didn't carry a gun in
my hand but I would tell these people
and they knew exactly what would happen
if they refused to accept my deal but
anyway let's take a listen further as he
goes into a bit more detail let me ask
you when you are saying it how are you
saying it to me like I know the way you
just said it right now how would you say
it to me if I'm the shab Iran and you're
sitting with me and you're telling me
here's the options let me if you if you
could role play with me what would it be
like how would you say it yeah first of
all with the sh we didn't we didn't play
quite that game because he had plenty of
money he didn't have to take a loan we
were just trying to convince him that he
he ought to work with us rather than the
Soviet Union that he ought to you know
we wanted his oil and we were willing to
help him westernize his country and we
didn't want he didn't want to go to the
Soviet so that was a little bit
different we'll get that a minute give
me an example of somebody who you did
what I'm talk let's say I'm talking to
you you're you're you're you're the
president of colia okay and and we want
to get at your resources there and and
I'm saying to you I'm showing you all
these fancy reports that show how well
your country is going to do and you can
show these reports to your press and to
your people you can convince your people
that by taking on these loans you're
helping the country you're going to
build these big dams you're going to
build these big electrical systems
whatever so you got you got all the
material you need here and and it's it's
usually a series of meetings maybe some
of them over lunch with a few cocktails
Etc and the president's maybe electing a
little and then you you just sort of
suddenly start talking about you somehow
you bring up the topic of what happened
recently to Salvador in Chile or what
happened to arbans and guemal depending
on what part of the world you're in you
you talk about these people and you say
you know isn't that a shame and you talk
a little bit about this you know
depending on the president different
presidents you you approach differently
and but they get it I mean they know the
history it doesn't you know these guys
know what's going on and their advisers
know what's going on and they're usually
sitting there at the meetings too some
pretty smart advisers who probably you
know been to business school the same
business schools that I went to and so
forth and there everybody's you know I I
speak Spanish but half most of the
people in the room can speak English too
and they they F you know they got the
same background but I will say Patrick
and I mentioned I talk in the book about
two presidents who did not play the game
uh democratically elected president of
Ecuador haime Ros and the head of state
of Panama OM
maros they had tremendous Integrity they
saw what I was trying to do and they
didn't do it and they they understood
the dangers they were taking and they
talked about these things and both of
them were were I believe assassinated
they were they were both taken out and
two almost a little over two months
apart from each other in
1981 they were taken out in in their
private planes in Ecuador first with h
Ros his his private plane crashed very
suspicious circumstances in less than
three months later same thing happened
to Omar teros and can these were the
only two guys that stood up to this that
said we're not buying these deals and in
fact made a big Point uh public
relations they went out there and made
very strong statements and they set
examples for the world and they were
taken out in these plane crashes and
although there was never a Smoking Gun
found
because in a plane crash The Smoking Gun
Goes Up in Smoke um plane crashes
private plane crashes are the best way
to assassinate someone if you ever
decide you want to do
that and because of the evidence is gone
but in the case of of uh least one of
those cases H Ros the the plan's engines
were sent to a laboratory in in in in
Switzerland or Sweden Switzerland um and
They concluded that the plane had not
crashed it had blown up in the air and
so um and and there was tremendous other
evidence it's tremendous evidence that
that that points to these having been
assassinations so there you have it I
mean he goes into a lot more detail
really the interview and discussion is
fascinating but it exposes a really dark
side of Western foreign policy and
specifically the United States they
employ people like this guy John Perkins
who is an economic Hitman to go to these
foreign countries to sit down with them
and say look this is what we need you to
do you need to accept these loans we
will loan you money and you need to do
XYZ with it and we'll help you out with
XYZ supposedly and if you don't I'll
just remind you of this president that
mysteriously died in a plane crash and
it was such a shame you know basically
letting them know hey buddy if you don't
do this you're next this is what's going
to happen to you too and this isn't a
conspiracy theory this is a guy that
this was actually his job to do this for
several years you know people talk about
these things sometimes as sort of
conspiracy theories but it's a reality
when you see somebody who was actually
his job to do the bidding of the US in
this fashion that it becomes a serious
reality and now should we be so confused
as to why many Muslim nations and Muslim
rulers seem to be in cooperating at the
very least with the agendas of foreign
governments like the US and the UK and
these other places they're being
pressured maybe they're being threatened
I don't know all the details on what's
going on in each country but I'm saying
this has happened before and I'm sure
it's currently going on in many places
they just went over how it happened in
Iran and there are many other countries
where this has taken place not only
Muslim countries to be sure you talk
about a lot of countries in South
America where this is happened basically
a method of extortion right to get the
resources of these foreign countries get
their money basically have them on the
hook to make sure that they do whatever
the US tells them to and if they don't
they'll get rid of you in one way or
another and have you replaced by
somebody who is willing to do their
bidding might sound scary it might sound
conspiratorial but when you see somebody
like John Perkins actually speaking
about this you realize that it's not
conspiracy it's a sad reality and the
Muslims need to unite against this you
know we need to find a way to actually
unite against this but obviously the
first step is educating the public about
what actually is going on so I suggest
that people watch the full video and
look more into this John Perkins
economic Hitman on the pbd podcast not
that I want to promote this podcast but
this specific video if you're interested
in Reading I recommend reading his book
on the subject as well and I hope that
this video educates my audience and that
you guys look more into these subjects
and realize that this is not just a
conspiracy this is serious and we need
to come up with a action plan to combat
what's actually going on with that being
said guys I thank you all for watching
and your continued support but until
next time inshallah I'll see you all
again
then
The Dark Side of America's foreign policy
Rishi Suri - Editor - The Daily Milap - India Dec 12, 2023
https://www.globalorder.live/post/the-dark-side-of-america-s-foreign-policy
America's past efforts to destabilise democratic nations form a complex and contentious chapter in modern history, reflecting a mixture of geopolitical strategies, ideological battles, and economic interests. The origins of these efforts often lay in the Cold War context, where the United States, driven by the desire to contain the spread of communism, engaged in various covert and overt operations in different parts of the world.
Charting this through history, the period following World War II saw the emergence of the United States as a global superpower. This period was marked by the ideological struggle between capitalism, represented by the United States, and communism, led by the Soviet Union. The fear of a domino effect, where one nation falling to communism would lead to others following, significantly influenced U.S. foreign policy.
One of the most notable regions where the U.S. intervened was Latin America. Operations like the CIA-backed coup in Guatemala in 1954, which overthrew the democratically elected president Jacobo Árbenz, were justified on the grounds of preventing communist influence. Similarly, in Chile in 1973, the U.S. supported the military coup that ousted Salvador Allende, a democratically elected socialist president.
The Vietnam War is another example where the U.S. efforts went beyond just destabilising a democratic regime; it was a full-scale military intervention. The U.S. supported the South Vietnamese government against the communist North Vietnam, leading to a prolonged and devastating conflict.
In Iran, the 1953 coup against Prime Minister Mohammad Mossadegh, orchestrated by the CIA and British intelligence, was aimed at maintaining Western control over Iranian oil resources. While Mossadegh was democratically elected, his nationalisation of the oil industry threatened Western economic interests.
Beyond ideological reasons, economic interests often played a significant role in these interventions. Ensuring friendly governments could mean easier access to natural resources, strategic locations for military bases, and markets for American goods.
These interventions have had long-lasting impacts on the countries involved. They often led to authoritarian regimes that suppressed political freedoms and human rights. The legacy of these actions continues to influence the perception of the United States in the international community.
In recent years, there has been a growing reflection and reassessment of these policies within the United States. The acknowledgment of past mistakes and the shift towards a more cooperative and respectful foreign policy can be seen as steps towards addressing the historical grievances. America's past efforts to destabilise democratic nations were shaped by a mix of ideological fears and economic interests. While these actions were rationalised as necessary for national security and global stability, they often resulted in negative consequences for the countries involved. Understanding and learning from this history is crucial for formulating more ethical and effective foreign policies in the future.
马可波罗世界的回归：二十一世纪的战争、战略和美国利益
作者：罗伯特·D·卡普兰（作者）2018 年 3 月 6 日
https://www.amazon.ca/Return-Marco-Polos-World-Twenty-first/dp/0812996798
畅销书《地理的复仇》和《即将到来的无政府状态》作者对过去二十年美国外交政策和世界秩序的令人振奋的评估
“[卡普兰]不仅成为外交政策现实主义的雄辩捍卫者，而且成为五角大楼寻求远景的伟大战略家。”——《华尔街日报》
十三世纪末，马可波罗开始了从威尼斯到中国的长达数十年的长途跋涉，沿着欧洲和亚洲之间的贸易路线（被称为丝绸之路）——这是忽必烈庞大帝国的基础。 现在，在二十世纪初，中国政权提出了一条完全复制马可波罗走过的路线的陆上和海上丝绸之路。
罗伯特·D·卡普兰（Robert D. Kaplan）凭借数十年担任《大西洋月刊》驻外记者和军事记者的第一手经验，概述了永恒的原则，这些原则应塑造美国在面临中国挑战的动荡世界中的角色。 从卡普兰对特朗普总统的直接想法，到对与朝鲜发生战争时会发生什么的坦率审视，这些文章是对美国未来几年将面临的艰难选择的有力思考。
赞颂马可波罗世界的回归
“优雅而人性化。 。 。 [a] 来自一位有着令人沮丧的准确预测记录的观察者的预言。”——布雷特·斯蒂芬斯，《纽约时报书评》
“这些文章对地理、政治、技术和经济趋势进行了真正开创性的、精彩的综合和分析，具有深远的影响。 《马可·波罗世界的回归》是罗伯特·D·卡普兰的另一部作品，将被视为经典。”——大卫·彼得雷乌斯将军（美国陆军退役军人）
“对世界事务的深思熟虑、令人不安但并非世界末日的分析不断从媒体上流传出来，这是一个很好的例子。 。 。 。 充满了活力和洞察力，足以吸引读者将其放在一边，几年后再重读。”——《柯克斯评论》（星评）
“一场精明、有力、令人振奋的演讲。”——Booklist
“本书收录了国家安全评论员卡普兰关于美国外交政策的十六篇重要文章。 。 。 。 对随着环境变化而演变的深思熟虑、多层次的立场和观点的概述。”——《出版商周刊》
黑暗面的外交政策
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/28/books/review/robert-kaplan-return-of-marco-polos-world.html
《马可波罗世界的回归, 二十一世纪的战争、战略和美国利益》
罗伯特·D·卡普兰, 280 页, 28 美元。
作者：布雷特·斯蒂芬斯 2018 年 3 月 28 日
20 世纪 90 年代：还记得他们吗？ 这十年是从苏联解体开始的。 最终道指突破 10,000 点大关。 在此期间，我们取得了海湾战争的胜利、欧盟和世界贸易组织的成立、北约东扩、美国预算盈余、北爱尔兰和平、谷歌、巴尔干半岛的胜利以及（查尔斯·巴克利除外）一个坚定的世界 团结一致想要“像迈克一样”。
美好时光。
或者说他们看起来是这样。 1994 年，外国记者罗伯特·D·卡普兰 (Robert D. Kaplan) 在报道巴尔干半岛、两伊战争和埃塞俄比亚饥荒方面崭露头角，他在《大西洋月刊》上发表了一篇颇具影响力的文章，警告“即将到来的无政府状态”。 如果像弗朗西斯·福山所想的那样，我们已经进入了一个资产阶级舒适和民主合法性的“后历史”时代，那么这个时代的恩赐相对较少。 卡普兰写道，其余的人“将被困在历史中，生活在棚户区里，摆脱贫困、文化障碍和种族冲突的努力将因缺乏饮用水、耕种土壤和生存空间而注定失败。”
历史并没有证明卡普兰论文的各个方面都是正确的——例如，巴基斯坦和印度并没有分崩离析，尽管文章暗示它们可能会分崩离析，而且大多数人类福利指标仍然显示出进步。 但他对 21 世纪世界的普遍悲观态度现在看起来非常有先见之明，至少与技术乐观主义者、民主推动者和全球化热衷者的盲目乐观预测相比是这样。
这就是欢迎《马可·波罗世界的回归》的原因，这是一本不拘一格的文集，收录了优雅而人性化的文章，其中除了一篇之外，其他所有文章都曾在过去十几年中出现在《大西洋月刊》和其他出版物上。 卡普兰的兴趣广泛：中亚的种族纠葛； 塞缪尔·亨廷顿的政治思想； 荣誉勋章获得者的无名英雄主义； 朝鲜半岛爆发战争的前景。 最重要的是，他着迷于地理对政治家和社会的算计、野心和幻想的决定性影响。
以地中海为例。 半个世纪以来，它不仅分隔了两个大陆，而且分隔了两种文明：基督教世界和伊斯兰教世界。 然而，马格里布大部分地区政治秩序的崩溃提醒了数百万非洲人，中海毕竟没有那么宽阔。 数千人在试图穿越它时被淹死； 更多的人取得了成功，对我们过去认为的欧洲社会产生了累积影响。
卡普兰写道：“我们回到了一种更古老的地图学，它让人回想起中世纪盛期，其中‘东方’并不是从任何一个特定的地方开始的，因为区域重叠并且定义更加模糊。” “东方和西方的二分法正在全世界瓦解，尽管微妙的差别继续存在。”
地中海盆地的情况在其他地方也同样如此——并且以其他方式发生。 俄罗斯 2014 年入侵乌克兰（以及西方事实上的默许）是冷战后国家边界脆弱性的最明显证据。
但俄罗斯在保加利亚等地秘密兜售影响力又如何呢？ 或通过《今日俄罗斯》“新闻”频道公然兜售影响力； 或者通过 Twitter 和 Facebook 进行网络行动来扰乱和破坏西方选举？
冷战结束后，我们许多人天真地认为，通信革命将成为西方向世界其他地区传播其价值观、态度和品味的工具。 我们忘记了这场革命也朝着相反的方向发展：每一位在开罗为政治自由化而奋斗的谷歌高管，也可能有一位在西方被疏远的年轻伊斯兰主义者，通过阅读基地组织的精明在线书籍《Inspire》来学习如何制造炸弹。 杂志。
卡普兰从未忽视这种流动性：“由于技术的进步，世界实际上变得越小，”他写道，“它似乎越具有渗透性、复杂性和压倒性，无数看似棘手的危机相互交织。”
这就是世界的现实——扭曲的、出乎意料的、讽刺的、常常是悲剧的——它导致卡普兰走向他的大写R现实主义外交政策倾向。 这是他在章节长度中探讨的主题
亨利·基辛格、亨廷顿和芝加哥大学的约翰·J·米尔斯海默（其 2001 年的代表作《大国政治的悲剧》，后来被他带有倾向性和偏执的长篇大论《以色列游说与美国外交政策》所掩盖）的人物简介 与斯蒂芬·M·沃尔特 (Stephen M. Walt) 合着）。
卡普兰明确表示，现实主义在最好的情况下为美国政治家提供了一条介于基辛格曾经所说的“过度承诺与孤立之间的灾难性摇摆”之间的中间道路。 这就是尼克松政府寻求以一种既保留美国作为可靠盟友的声誉，又确保权力平衡（通过向中国开放）的方式退出越南的指导方针，这将有助于美国渡过难关。 冷战。
卡普兰认为基辛格愿意以令美国道德自由主义者感到愤慨的方式来做这件事，这是非常好的。 “确保一个国家的生存有时会导致私人道德几乎没有可悲的余地，”他认为。 “认识到违反这种道德的必要性、采取相应行动并为自己的行为承担责任的少数人，是他们国家最需要的领导人之一，尽管他们在几代善意的知识分子中引起了极大的不安，他们没有 现实世界官僚责任的负担，做出抽象的选择，并将道德视为一种不灵活的绝对。”
这一观察有很多道理：外交政策不仅仅是道德的一个子集。 然而现实主义也有其实践者无法认识到的局限性。 如果它对我们在越南和伊拉克进行国家建设活动时过度使用理想主义提出了强有力的警告，那么它也可能使政治家们无法抓住机会。 许多现实主义者对罗纳德·里根相信冷战能够获胜的信念感到震惊。 事实证明他是对的，部分原因是他比他们更了解反共产主义斗争的道德层面； 部分原因是，有时确实有理由保持乐观。
现实主义者也可能无法掌握意识形态塑造国家行为的力量，而这种力量往往会扭曲或无视自己的利益。 例如，伊朗没有合理的理由威胁以色列，因为它与以色列有着古老的文化纽带和当前的敌人。 然而，德黑兰威胁以色列是出于神学信念，不管现实政治如何。 正是许多所谓现实主义的理性主义破坏了其理解世界真相的主张。
卡普兰明白了这一点：“莎士比亚的学生，”他写道，“早在国际关系专家之前就掌握了弗拉基米尔·普京的性格。” 地理可能是地缘政治不可改变的事实，但地缘政治仍然是政治，因此也是一个人类的故事。
这使得卡普兰关于新乌托邦主义危险的最后一章更加令人毛骨悚然。 我们可能认为我们已经把奥威尔的“老大哥”抛在了身后，但导致法西斯主义和共产主义产生的心理状况今天仍然存在于我们身边。 “一些布道、博客或推文像病毒一样传播，这本身就是对 21 世纪个人主义现状的悲惨反思，”他说。 “电子群是对孤独的否定，为新的极权主义意识形态铺平了道路。”
这是来自一位有着令人沮丧的准确预测记录的观察者的黑暗预言。 当谈到抑制我们的热情时，卡普兰的成就是用如此多的热情投下如此多的阴影。
布雷特·斯蒂芬斯是《泰晤士报》的专栏作家。
The Return of Marco Polo's World: War, Strategy, and American Interests in the Twenty-first Century
By Robert D. Kaplan (Author) March 6 2018
https://www.amazon.ca/Return-Marco-Polos-World-Twenty-first/dp/0812996798
A bracing assessment of U.S. foreign policy and world disorder over the past two decades from the bestselling author of The Revenge of Geography and The Coming Anarchy
“[Kaplan] has emerged not only as an eloquent defender of foreign-policy realism but as a grand strategist to whom the Pentagon turns for a tour d’horizon.”—The Wall Street Journal
In the late thirteenth century, Marco Polo began a decades-long trek from Venice to China along the trade route between Europe and Asia known as the Silk Road—a foundation of Kublai Khan’s sprawling empire. Now, in the early twenty-first century, the Chinese regime has proposed a land-and-maritime Silk Road that duplicates exactly the route Marco Polo traveled.
Drawing on decades of firsthand experience as a foreign correspondent and military embed for The Atlantic, Robert D. Kaplan outlines the timeless principles that should shape America’s role in a turbulent world that encompasses the Chinese challenge. From Kaplan’s immediate thoughts on President Trump to a frank examination of what will happen in the event of war with North Korea, these essays are a vigorous reckoning with the difficult choices the United States will face in the years ahead.
Praise for The Return of Marco Polo’s World
“Elegant and humane . . . [a] prophecy from an observer with a depressingly accurate record of predictions.”—Bret Stephens, The New York Times Book Review
“These essays constitute a truly pathbreaking, brilliant synthesis and analysis of geographic, political, technological, and economic trends with far-reaching consequences. The Return of Marco Polo’s World is another work by Robert D. Kaplan that will be regarded as a classic.”—General David Petraeus (U.S. Army, Ret.)
“Thoughtful, unsettling, but not apocalyptic analyses of world affairs flow steadily off the presses, and this is a superior example. . . . Presented with enough verve and insight to tempt readers to set it aside to reread in a few years.”—Kirkus Review (starred review)
“An astute, powerfully stated, and bracing presentation.”—Booklist
“This volume compiles sixteen major essays on America’s foreign policy from national security commentator Kaplan. . . . An overview of thoughtful, multilayered positions and perspectives evolving through changing circumstances.”—Publishers Weekly
Foreign Policy From the Dark Side
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/28/books/review/robert-kaplan-return-of-marco-polos-world.html
THE RETURN OF MARCO POLO'S WORLD
War, Strategy, and American Interests in the Twenty-First Century
By Robert D. Kaplan
280 pp. Random House. $28.
President Reagan with Henry Kissinger and other officials past and present, October 1981.Credit...Bettmann
When you purchase an independently reviewed book through our site, we earn an affiliate commission.
THE RETURN OF MARCO POLO'S WORLD
War, Strategy, and American Interests in the Twenty-First Century
By Robert D. Kaplan
280 pp. Random House. $28.
The 1990s: Remember them? The decade began with the collapse of the Soviet Union. It ended with the Dow bursting past the 10,000 mark. In between, we got victory in the gulf, the creation of the European Union and the World Trade Organization, NATO enlargement, an American budget surplus, peace in Northern Ireland, Google, victory in the Balkans and (Charles Barkley aside) a world firmly united in wanting to be “like Mike.”
Good times.
Or so they seemed. In 1994, Robert D. Kaplan, a foreign correspondent who had cut his teeth covering the Balkans, the Iran-Iraq war and the famine in Ethiopia, wrote an influential essay in The Atlantic warning of “The Coming Anarchy.” If, as Francis Fukuyama thought, we had entered a “posthistorical” era of bourgeois comfort and democratic legitimacy, it was an era whose bounties relatively few shared. The rest, Kaplan wrote, “will be stuck in history, living in shantytowns where attempts to rise above poverty, cultural dysfunction and ethnic strife will be doomed by a lack of water to drink, soil to till and space to survive in.”
History has not vindicated every aspect of Kaplan’s thesis — Pakistan and India, for instance, haven’t fallen apart, despite the essay’s suggestion that they might, and most measures of human welfare continue to show progress. But his general pessimism about the world that lay in wait in the 21st century now looks remarkably prescient, at least next to the Pollyannaish forecasts of techno-optimists, democracy promoters and globalization enthusiasts.
That’s reason to welcome “The Return of Marco Polo’s World,” an eclectic collection of elegant and humane essays, all but one of which previously appeared in The Atlantic and other publications over the past dozen or so years. Kaplan’s interests run wide: the ethnic tangles of Central Asia; the political thought of Samuel Huntington; the unsung heroism of Medal of Honor winners; the prospect of war on the Korean Peninsula. Above all there is his fascination with the decisive impact of geography on the calculations, ambitions and illusions of statesmen and societies.
Take the Mediterranean. For half a millennium, it mostly separated not only two continents but also two civilizations: Christendom and Islam. Yet the collapse of political order throughout much of the Maghreb has reminded millions of Africans that the Middle Sea isn’t so wide after all. Thousands have drowned trying to cross it; many more have succeeded, with cumulative effects on what we used to think of as European society.
“We are back to a much older cartography that recalls the High Middle Ages, in which ‘the East’ did not begin in any one particular place because regions overlapped and were more vaguely defined,” Kaplan writes. “The dichotomy of the Orient and the Occident is breaking down the world over, even as subtle gradations continue to persist.”
What’s true in the Mediterranean basin is true in other places, too — and in other ways. Russia’s 2014 invasion of Ukraine (and the West’s de facto acquiescence in it) is the most visible evidence of the flimsiness of the post-Cold War’s national borders.
But what about covert Russian influence peddling in places like Bulgaria; or overt influence peddling through the Russia Today “news” channel; or cyberoperations, via Twitter and Facebook, to disrupt and undermine Western elections?
After the Cold War, many of us naïvely assumed that the communications revolution would be the vehicle through which the West would spread its values, attitudes and tastes to the rest of the world. We forgot that the revolution worked in the opposite direction as well: that for every Google executive fighting for political liberalization in Cairo, there might also be an alienated young Islamist in the West learning how to build a bomb by reading Inspire, Al Qaeda’s slick online magazine.
Kaplan never loses sight of this fluidity: “The smaller the world actually becomes because of the advance of technology,” he writes, “the more permeable, complicated and overwhelming it seems, with its numberless, seemingly intractable crises that are all entwined.”
That is the world’s reality — crooked, unexpected, ironic and often tragic — and it leads Kaplan to his capital-R Realist foreign-policy inclinations. It’s a subject he explores in chapter-length profiles of Henry Kissinger, Huntington and the University of Chicago’s John J. Mearsheimer (whose 2001 magnum opus, “The Tragedy of Great Power Politics,” was later overshadowed by his tendentious and bigoted screed, “The Israel Lobby and U.S. Foreign Policy,” written with Stephen M. Walt).
Kaplan makes clear that, at its best, Realism provides American statesmen with a middle path between what Kissinger once called “the disastrous oscillations between overcommitment and isolation.” This is what guided the Nixon administration as it sought to get out of Vietnam in a way that preserved America’s reputation as a reliable ally, while also securing a balance of power (through the opening with China) that would help see the United States through the Cold War.
That Kissinger was willing to do this in ways that scandalized moralistic American liberals is more than fine by Kaplan. “Ensuring a nation’s survival sometimes leaves tragically little room for private morality,” he argues. “The rare individuals who have recognized the necessity of violating such morality, acted accordingly and taken responsibility for their actions are among the most necessary leaders for their countries, even as they have caused great unease among generations of well-meaning intellectuals who, free of the burden of real-world bureaucratic responsibility, make choices in the abstract and treat morality as an inflexible absolute.”
There is much truth in that observation: Foreign policy is not merely a subset of ethics. Yet Realism also has limits that its practitioners can fail to appreciate. If it offers a powerful caution against overdosing on the kind of idealism that led us into nation-building exercises in Vietnam and Iraq, it can also keep statesmen from grasping their opportunities. Many Realists were scandalized by Ronald Reagan’s belief that the Cold War could be won. He proved to be right, in part because he understood the moral dimensions of the struggle against Communism better than they did; and in part, too, because sometimes there really is a good case for optimism.
Realists can also fail to grasp the power of ideology to shape the behavior of states, often in ways that deform or disregard their own interests. Iran, for instance, has no rational reason to threaten Israel, with which it shares ancient cultural bonds and current enemies. Yet Tehran threatens Israel as a matter of theological conviction, Realpolitik be damned. It is the very rationalism of much of what goes by the name Realism that undermines its claims to understand the world as it really is.
Kaplan gets this: “A student of Shakespeare,” he writes, “would have grasped Vladimir Putin’s character long before an international relations wonk.” Geography may be the immutable fact of geopolitics, but geopolitics is still politics, and thus a human story.
This makes one of Kaplan’s final chapters, on the dangers of a new utopianism, all the more chilling. We may think we’ve put Orwell’s “Big Brother” behind us, but the psychological conditions that gave rise to fascism and Communism are very much with us today. “The very idea that some sermon or blog or tweet has gone viral is a sad reflection on the state of individualism in the 21st century,” he says. “The electronic swarm is a negation of loneliness that prepares the way for the new ideologies of totalitarianism.”
It’s a dark prophecy from an observer with a depressingly accurate record of predictions. When it comes to curbing our enthusiasms, Kaplan’s achievement is to throw so much shade with so much verve.
Bret Stephens is a columnist for The Times.
