顶尖科学家拒绝上帝

顶尖科学家仍然拒绝上帝

爱德华·拉尔森和拉里·威瑟姆，1998 年 7 月 23 日
《自然》第 394 卷，第 313 页（1998）引用本文

自本世纪初以来，美国科学家的宗教信仰问题就一直存在争议。 我们最新的调查发现，在顶级自然科学家中，人们的怀疑程度比以往任何时候都更大——几乎是全部。

关于这一主题的研究始于美国著名心理学家詹姆斯·H·卢巴（James H. Leuba）和他在1914年进行的具有里程碑意义的调查。他发现，在随机挑选的1000名美国科学家中，有58%的人对上帝的存在表示不相信或怀疑，而这一数字上升到接近70%。 他的样本中 400 名“更伟大”的科学家中的 %1。 20 年后，Leuba 以略有不同的形式重复了他的调查，发现这些百分比分别增加到 67 和 852。

1996 年，我们重复了 Leuba 1914 年的调查，并在 Nature3 上报告了我们的结果。 我们发现美国科学家总体上与 1914 年相比变化不大，60.7% 的人表示不相信或怀疑。 今年，我们密切模仿了 Leuba 1914 年调查的第二阶段，以衡量“更伟大”科学家的信念，结果发现信念率比以往任何时候都要低——只有 7% 的受访者相信。

卢巴将“伟大”科学家的更高程度的怀疑和怀疑归因于他们的“卓越的知识、理解和经验”2。 同样，牛津大学科学家彼得·阿特金斯 (Peter Atkins) 对我们 1996 年的调查评论道：“你显然可以成为一名科学家，同时拥有宗教信仰。 但我不认为你能成为一名真正的科学家，因为它们是非常陌生的知识类别。”4这样的评论导致我们重复 Leuba 研究的第二阶段，以进行最新的比较 “伟大”和“小”科学家的宗教信仰。

我们选择的“更伟大”科学家团队是美国国家科学院 (NAS) 的成员。 我们的调查发现，NAS自然科学家几乎普遍拒绝超验。 NAS 生物科学家中不相信上帝和永生的比例分别为 65.2% 和 69.0%，NAS 物理科学家中则分别为 79.0% 和 76.3%。 其余的大多数人对这两个问题都是不可知论者，很少有人相信。 我们发现 NAS 数学家的信仰比例最高（14.3% 相信上帝，15.0% 相信不朽）。 生物科学家的信仰率最低（5.5%相信上帝，7.1%相信不朽），物理学家和天文学家的信仰率稍高（7.5%相信上帝，7.5%相信不朽）。 1914 年、1933 年和 1998 年调查的总体比较数据见表 1。

表1“更伟大”科学家的调查答案比较
全尺寸桌子
重复 Leuba 的方法带来了挑战。 在一般调查中，他对标准参考书《美国科学家》（AMS）中列出的科学家进行了随机调查。 我们使用的是当前版本。 在 Leuba 的时代，AMS 编辑在他们的条目中指定了“伟大的科学家”，而 Leuba 用这些来识别他的“更伟大的”科学家1,2。 AMS 不再进行这些任命，因此我们选择 NAS 成员作为我们的“更伟大”科学家，这一地位曾经确保在早期 AMS 中被指定为“伟大的科学家”。 我们的方法肯定比 Leuba 的方法产生了更精英的样本，这（如果 Leuba 和阿特金斯引用的评论是正确的）可以解释我们的受访者中信念水平极低的原因。

在 1914 年的调查中，Leuba 将他的简短调查问卷邮寄给了 400 名 AMS“伟大科学家”的随机样本。 它询问了受访者对“与人类进行智力和情感交流的上帝”和“个人不朽”的信仰。 对于每个问题，受访者都可以选择肯定相信、不相信或不可知论1。 我们的调查包含完全相同的问题，并且还要求匿名回答。

Leuba 将 1914 年的调查发送给了 400 名“生物和物理科学家”，后者包括数学家以及物理学家和天文学家1。 由于 NAS 会员规模相对较小，我们向这些核心学科的所有 517 名 NAS 会员发送了调查。 Leuba 在 1914 年获得的回报率约为 70%，1933 年超过 75%，而我们的回报率在 1996 年的调查中约为 60%，来自 NAS 会员的回报率略高于 50%1,2。

当我们整理我们的发现时，国家科学院发行了一本小册子，鼓励在公立学校教授进化论，这是科学界和美国一些保守基督徒之间持续摩擦的根源。 这本小册子向读者保证，“上帝是否存在是一个科学中立的问题”5。 NAS院长布鲁斯·艾伯茨说：“这个学院有很多非常杰出的成员，他们都是非常虔诚的人，相信进化论，其中很多人是生物学家。” 我们的调查表明情况并非如此。

Leading scientists still reject God

https://www.nature.com/articles/28478#:~:text=Our%20survey%20found%20near%20universal,both%20issues%2C%20with%20few%20believers.?

Edward J. Larson & Larry Witham ， 23 July 1998
Nature volume 394, page313 (1998)Cite this article

The question of religious belief among US scientists has been debated since early in the century. Our latest survey finds that, among the top natural scientists, disbelief is greater than ever — almost total.

Research on this topic began with the eminent US psychologist James H. Leuba and his landmark survey of 1914. He found that 58% of 1,000 randomly selected US scientists expressed disbelief or doubt in the existence of God, and that this figure rose to near 70% among the 400 “greater” scientists within his sample1. Leuba repeated his survey in somewhat different form 20 years later, and found that these percentages had increased to 67 and 85, respectively2.

In 1996, we repeated Leuba's 1914 survey and reported our results in Nature3. We found little change from 1914 for American scientists generally, with 60.7% expressing disbelief or doubt. This year, we closely imitated the second phase of Leuba's 1914 survey to gauge belief among “greater” scientists, and find the rate of belief lower than ever — a mere 7% of respondents.

Leuba attributed the higher level of disbelief and doubt among “greater” scientists to their “superior knowledge, understanding, and experience”2. Similarly, Oxford University scientist Peter Atkins commented on our 1996 survey, “You clearly can be a scientist and have religious beliefs. But I don't think you can be a real scientist in the deepest sense of the word because they are such alien categories of knowledge.”4 Such comments led us to repeat the second phase of Leuba's study for an up-to-date comparison of the religious beliefs of “greater” and “lesser” scientists.

Our chosen group of “greater” scientists were members of the National Academy of Sciences (NAS). Our survey found near universal rejection of the transcendent by NAS natural scientists. Disbelief in God and immortality among NAS biological scientists was 65.2% and 69.0%, respectively, and among NAS physical scientists it was 79.0% and 76.3%. Most of the rest were agnostics on both issues, with few believers. We found the highest percentage of belief among NAS mathematicians (14.3% in God, 15.0% in immortality). Biological scientists had the lowest rate of belief (5.5% in God, 7.1% in immortality), with physicists and astronomers slightly higher (7.5% in God, 7.5% in immortality). Overall comparison figures for the 1914, 1933 and 1998 surveys appear in Table 1.

Table 1 Comparison of survey answers among “greater” scientists
 

Repeating Leuba's methods presented challenges. For his general surveys, he randomly polled scientists listed in the standard reference work, American Men of Science (AMS). We used the current edition. In Leuba's day, AMS editors designated the “great scientists” among their entries, and Leuba used these to identify his “greater” scientists1,2. The AMS no longer makes these designations, so we chose as our “greater” scientists members of the NAS, a status that once assured designation as “great scientists” in the early AMS. Our method surely generated a more elite sample than Leuba's method, which (if the quoted comments by Leuba and Atkins are correct) may explain the extremely low level of belief among our respondents.

For the 1914 survey, Leuba mailed his brief questionnaire to a random sample of 400 AMS “great scientists”. It asked about the respondent's belief in “a God in intellectual and affective communication with humankind” and in “personal immortality”. Respondents had the options of affirming belief, disbelief or agnosticism on each question1. Our survey contained precisely the same questions and also asked for anonymous responses.

Leuba sent the 1914 survey to 400 “biological and physical scientists”, with the latter group including mathematicians as well as physicists and astronomers1. Because of the relatively small size of NAS membership, we sent our survey to all 517 NAS members in those core disciplines. Leuba obtained a return rate of about 70% in 1914 and more than 75% in 1933 whereas our returns stood at about 60% for the 1996 survey and slightly over 50% from NAS members1,2.

As we compiled our findings, the NAS issued a booklet encouraging the teaching of evolution in public schools, an ongoing source of friction between the scientific community and some conservative Christians in the United States. The booklet assures readers, “Whether God exists or not is a question about which science is neutral”5. NAS president Bruce Alberts said: “There are many very outstanding members of this academy who are very religious people, people who believe in evolution, many of them biologists.” Our survey suggests otherwise.

References

1. Leuba, J. H. The Belief in God and Immortality: A Psychological, Anthropological and Statistical Study (Sherman, French & Co., Boston, 1916).

2. Leuba, J. H. Harper's Magazine 169, 291–300 (1934).

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3. Larson, E. J. & Witham, L. Nature 386, 435–436 (1997).

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4. Highfield, R. The Daily Telegraph 3 April, p. 4 (1997).

5. National Academy of Sciences Teaching About Evolution and the Nature of Science (Natl Acad. Press, Washington DC, 1998).

Authors and Affiliations

1. Department of History, University of Georgia, Athens, 30602-6012, Georgia, USA

   Edward J. Larson

2. 3816 Lansdale Court, Burtonsville, 20866, Maryland, USA

   Larry Witham