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地下帝国 美国如何武器化世界经济

(2023-11-07 03:18:28) 下一个

地下帝国:美国如何武器化世界经济

Underground Empire: How America Weaponized the World Economy 

作者:亨利·法雷尔、亚伯拉罕·纽曼,2023 年 9 月 12 日

一项深入研究的调查揭示了美国如何像蜘蛛一样处于国际监视和控制网络的中心,并以光纤电缆和模糊的支付系统等全球网络的形式编织该网络

美国安全国家在 9/11 事件后首次开始将这些渠道武器化,当时它们似乎是打击恐怖主义的必需品,但现在它们已成为理所当然的事情。 AT&T 和花旗集团等跨国公司建立枢纽,它们用来赚钱,但政府也可以将其部署为咽喉要道。 今天有关贸易战、制裁和技术争端的头条新闻只是暗示着表面之下更大的地震变化。

华盛顿缓慢但坚定地把世界经济最重要的路径变成了统治外国企业和国家的工具,无论它们是竞争对手还是盟友,从而使美国能够维持全球霸主地位。 在这个过程中,我们梦游般地进入了一场新的帝国斗争。 亨利·法雷尔和亚伯拉罕·纽曼利用真实的故事、领域定义的发现和原创报道,展示了冷战后经济中最普通的方面如何成为诡计和胁迫的领域,以及我们必须采取哪些措施来确保这种新武器 种族不会失控。

Underground Empire: How America Weaponized the World Economy 

https://www.amazon.ca/Underground-Empire-America-Weaponized-Economy/dp/1250840554

By Henry Farrell, Abraham Newman, Sept. 12 2023

A deeply researched investigation that reveals how the United States is like a spider at the heart of an international web of surveillance and control, which it weaves in the form of globe-spanning networks such as fiber optic cables and obscure payment systems

America’s security state first started to weaponize these channels after 9/11, when they seemed like necessities to combat terrorism―but now they’re a matter of course. Multinational companies like AT&T and Citicorp build hubs, which they use to make money, but which the government can also deploy as choke points. Today’s headlines about trade wars, sanctions, and technology disputes are merely tremors hinting at far greater seismic shifts beneath the surface.

Slowly but surely, Washington has turned the most vital pathways of the world economy into tools of domination over foreign businesses and countries, whether they are rivals or allies, allowing the U.S. to maintain global supremacy. In the process, we have sleepwalked into a new struggle for empire. Using true stories, field-defining findings, and original reporting, Henry Farrell and Abraham Newman show how the most ordinary aspects of the post–Cold War economy have become realms of subterfuge and coercion, and what we must do to ensure that this new arms race doesn’t spiral out of control.

评论:美国对全球经济的意外控制

https://www.chathamhouse.org/publications/the-world-today/2023-10/review-americas-accidental-control-global-economy?

《地下帝国》认为,由于美国安装了世界金融体系的管道,它必须表现出克制——尼尔·希林写道,这是不可能的。

作者:Neil Shearing 副研究员,2023 年 9 月 29 日

给尼尔发邮件

地下帝国:美国如何武器化世界经济
亨利·法雷尔和亚伯拉罕·纽曼,艾伦·莱恩,25英镑

乌克兰战争在多个战线上进行。 其中一个在前线,双方似乎都已陷入僵局,血腥的僵局迫在眉睫。 另一个问题深藏在连接全球经济的技术和金融网络的地下深处。 在这方面,美国的支持意味着天平压倒性地向有利于乌克兰的方向倾斜。

--- 作者认为,美国并没有寻求建立一个它可以控制的全球体系

两位美国学者亨利·法雷尔和亚伯拉罕·纽曼在一本重要的新书中讲述了美国如何主宰连接世界的金融和技术网络以及这些网络如何被武器化的故事。 阅读他们的书有几个原因:它易于理解、引人入胜且简洁得令人耳目一新。 但最重要的是,它们触及了权力在全球化经济中如何真正发挥作用的核心。

法雷尔和纽曼论点的核心是,美国的影响力源于其对全球经济管道的控制,即本书标题中的“地下帝国”。 这部分是财务方面的,部分是技术方面的。 外汇市场上几乎 90% 的交易都是以美元进行的。 与此同时,美国的技术霸主地位意味着国家之间的通信流往往通过美国境内的基础设施进行。

法雷尔和纽曼认为,美国并没有有意寻求建立一个它可以控制的全球体系,这在我看来是正确的。 相反,美国恰好是 20 世纪 90 年代和 2000 年代的世界主导经济体,当时全球化和技术的结合推动了贸易、资本和信息的跨境流动的爆炸式增长。 尽管如此,华盛顿的政策制定者正在越来越多地利用这一立场。

——有人认为,美国金融霸权的时代已经结束。 有几个理由对此表示怀疑

俄罗斯对乌克兰战争的反应就说明了这一点。 在美国对俄罗斯采取的所有措施中,最痛苦的是对其银行的制裁。 这些限制了美国银行与俄罗斯银行乃至俄罗斯公司进行交易的能力。 由于所有美元结算都会在某种程度上触及美国金融体系,这使得俄罗斯公司更难以美元进行交易。 鉴于美元在全球经济体系中的主导地位,这对他们来说是一个问题。

作为回应,美国的对手越来越多地提倡使用本国货币来结算跨境交易。 最重要的是中国推动扩大人民币在双边贸易中的使用。 这些努力导致一些评论家认为美国金融霸权的时代已经结束。 但正如我为查塔姆研究所所写的那样,有几个理由对此表示怀疑。

一是任何取代美元的货币都需要具有类似的属性:它必须得到强大而稳定的机构的支持,并由运营开放资本账户的央行发行。 这将阻止人民币的使用规模足以与美元相抗衡。

但另一个问题是,书中概述的强大网络效应将使其他货币难以取代美元。 因此,虽然越来越多的对华双边贸易将以人民币结算,但绝大多数跨境交易将继续以美元结算 — — 而美国将继续为全球金融体系提供管道。 同样,很难想象一个美国不在促进大多数通信流动方面发挥重要作用的世界。

---美国可以部署其帝国来建立一个联邦,其中权力和合法性相互加强,作者:亨利·法雷尔和亚伯拉罕·纽曼

这是什么意思呢? 法雷尔和纽曼认为,随着中国和俄罗斯寻求摆脱美国主导的体系的束缚,世界将变得更加脱节和日益敌对。 因此,他们认为美国政策制定者必须后退一步,用他们的话说,认识到“权力越大,责任越大”。 他们写道,“美国可以部署其帝国来建立一个联邦,在这个联邦中,权力和合法性相互加强。”

但目前尚不清楚这在实践中意味着什么,除了值得称赞的多边主义和美国以更积极的方式利用其影响力(例如打击全球逃税)。

更根本的是,我认为这误读了形势。 尽管美国政策制定者可能并没有打算建立一个他们可以施加这种控制的全球体系,但运气和环境结合起来给他们带来这种控制的事实在华盛顿并不是不受欢迎的。

图片 — 2009 年,雅加达的一位反债务活动家。在 20 世纪 90 年代和 2000 年代的全球化和科技繁荣时期,美国有幸成为世界主导经济体。 照片:Bay Ismoyo/法新社/盖蒂图片社。

美国的国际角色

20世纪90年代和2000年代的全球化时代已经被扔进了历史的垃圾箱。 全球经济非但没有一体化,反而分裂成两个阵营——一个与美国结盟,另一个与中国结盟,其中包括俄罗斯,还包括非洲和拉丁美洲的大部分地区。

在这个新世界中,美元的主导地位已成为巨大权力和影响力的源泉,华盛顿的政策制定者将发现越来越难以抵制其利用。

Review: America's accidental control of the global economy

https://www.chathamhouse.org/publications/the-world-today/2023-10/review-americas-accidental-control-global-economy?

'Underground Empire' argues that because America installed the plumbing of the world's financial system, it must show restraint – that is unlikely, writes Neil Shearing.

By Neil Shearing Associate Fellow,   

Email Neil

Underground Empire: How America Weaponized the World Economy
Henry Farrell and Abraham Newman, Allen Lane, £25 

The war in Ukraine is being fought on several fronts. One is on the frontline, where both sides appear to have dug in and a bloody stalemate looms. Another lies deep underground in the tangle of technological and financial networks that connect the global economy. On this front, United States backing means the scales are tilted overwhelmingly in Ukraine’s favour.

--- The authors argue that America did not seek to create a global system that it could control

The story of how the US came to dominate the financial and technological networks that connect the world – and how they are now being weaponized – is told in an important new book by Henry Farrell and Abraham Newman, two US academics. There are several reasons to read their book: it is accessible, it is engaging and it is refreshingly concise. But most of all, they get to the heart of how power really works in a globalized economy.

The core of Farell and Newman’s argument is that US influence stems from its control over the plumbing for the global economy, the ‘underground empire’ of the book’s title. This is part financial and part technological. Almost 90 per cent of transactions in the foreign exchange market take place in dollars. At the same time, American tech supremacy means that communication flows between countries tend to be routed through infrastructure that sits on US soil.

Farrell and Newman argue, correctly in my view, that America did not intentionally seek to create a global system that it could control. Rather, it just happened that the US was the world’s dominant economy in the 1990s and 2000s when globalization and technology combined to fuel an explosion in cross-border flows of trade, capital and information. Nonetheless, it is a position that is being increasingly exploited by policymakers in Washington.

--- Some argue that the days of US financial hegemony are over. There are several reasons to doubt this

The response to Russia’s war in Ukraine illustrates this point. Of all the measures imposed by the US on Russia, the most painful have been the sanctions on its banks. These have restricted the ability of US banks to transact with Russian banks, and by extension Russian companies. And since all US dollar settlements touch the US financial system at some point, this has made it much harder for Russian companies to deal in dollars. That’s a problem for them given the dominance of the dollar in the global economic system.

In response, adversaries of the US are increasingly promoting the use of their own currencies to settle cross-border transactions. The most important has been China’s push to expand the use of renminbi in bilateral trade. These efforts have led some commentators to argue that the days of US financial hegemony are over. But as I have written for Chatham House, there are several reasons to doubt this.

One is that any currency that replaces the dollar would need to share similar attributes: it would have to be backed by strong and stable institutions, and be issued by a central bank that operated an open capital account. This will prevent the use of the renminbi on a scale sufficient to rival the dollar.

But another is that the strong network effects outlined in the book will make it hard for other currencies to dislodge the dollar. Accordingly, while a growing share of bilateral trade with China will be settled in renminbi, the vast majority of cross-border transactions will continue to be settled in dollars – and the US will continue to provide the plumbing for the global financial system. Similarly, it is difficult to envisage a world in which the US does not play a major role in facilitating most communication flows.

--- America could deploy its empire to build a commonwealth, in which power and legitimacy reinforce each other, By Henry Farrell and Abraham Newman

What does all this mean? Farrell and Newman argue that as China and Russia seek to untether themselves from the US-dominated system, the world will become more disconnected and increasingly hostile. Accordingly, they argue that US policymakers must step back and, in their words, recognize that ‘with great power comes great responsibility’. ‘The United States could deploy its empire to build a commonwealth, in which power and legitimacy reinforce each other,’ they write.

But it is not clear what this amounts to in practice, other than a laudable pitch for multilateralism and for America to use its influence in more positive ways, such as tackling global tax evasion.

More fundamentally, I think this misreads the situation. While US policymakers may not have set out to create a global system over which they exert such control, the fact that luck and circumstance combined to give it to them has not been unwelcome in Washington.

The era of globalization that defined the 1990s and 2000s has been consigned to history’s dustbin. Rather than integrating, the global economy is now fracturing into two blocs – one that aligns with the US and another that aligns with China, which includes Russia but also large parts of Africa and Latin America.

In this new world, the dominance of the dollar has become the source of huge power and influence that policymakers in Washington will find increasingly difficult to resist exploiting. 

亨利·法雷尔教授
Henry Farrell 是约翰·霍普金斯大学高级国际研究学院 SNF Agora 研究所教授、曾担任乔治华盛顿大学和多伦多大学的教授、伍德罗·威尔逊国际学者中心的研究员以及德国波恩马克斯·普朗克项目组的高级研究员。研究主题包括民主、互联网政治以及国际和比较政治经济学。 著有《信任的政治经济学:利益、机构和企业间合作》 2009 ,《隐私与权力:跨大西洋的自由与安全之战》 2019,还撰写或合着了 34 篇学术文章,以及多部书籍章节和大量非学术出版物。 他是外交关系委员会的成员。

亚伯拉罕·纽曼教授
Abraham L. Newman 是乔治城大学埃德蒙·A·沃尔什外交学院政府学和埃德蒙·A·沃尔什外交学院教授。 他是莫塔拉国际研究中心主任。 他的研究重点是全球化产生的政治,是《隐私与权力:跨大西洋自由与安全斗争》2019,《自愿中断:国际软法、金融和权力》2018,《隐私保护者:全球经济中的个人数据监管》2008 ,《数字革命如何革命性》2006。 作品发表在一系列期刊《比较政治研究》、《国际组织》、《国际安全》、《科学》和《世界政治》。

Professor Henry Farrell
Henry Farrell is SNF Agora Institute Professor at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, 2019 winner of the Friedrich Schiedel Prize for Politics and Technology, and Editor in Chief of the Monkey Cage blog at the Washington Post. He has previously been a professor at George Washington University and the University of Toronto, a fellow at the Woodrow Wilson Center for International Scholars, and a senior research fellow at the Max-Planck Project Group in Bonn, Germany. He works on a variety of topics, including democracy, the politics of the Internet and international and comparative political economy. His first book, The Political Economy of Trust: Interests, Institutions and Inter-Firm Cooperation, was published in 2009 by Cambridge University Press. His second (with Abraham Newman) Of Privacy and Power: The Transatlantic Fight over Freedom and Security, was published in 2019 by Princeton University Press, and has been awarded the 2019 Chicago-Kent College of Law / Roy C. Palmer Civil Liberties Prize and the ISA-ICOMM Best Book Award. In addition he has authored or co-authored 34 academic articles, as well as several book chapters and numerous non-academic publications. He is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations.


Abraham Newman
Abraham L. Newman is professor of Government and the Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University. He is the Director of the Mortara Center for International Studies. His research focuses on the politics generated by globalization and is the co-author Of Privacy and Power: The Transatlantic Struggle over Freedom and Security (Princeton University Press 2019), which was the winner of the 2019 Chicago-Kent College of Law / Roy C. Palmer Civil Liberties Prize, the 2020 International Studies Association ICOMM Best Book Award, and one of Foreign Affairs’ Best Books of 2019, co-author of Voluntary Disruptions: International Soft Law, Finance and Power (Oxford University Press 2018), author of Protectors of Privacy: Regulating Personal Data in the Global Economy (Cornell University Press 2008) and the co-editor of How Revolutionary was the Digital Revolution (Stanford University Press 2006). His work has appeared in a range of journals including Comparative Political Studies, International Organization, International Security, Science, and World Politics. 

Review

"A revelatory book."
Paul Krugman, The New York Times

"The U.S. has made use of a novel, often mysterious set of tools for rewarding those who help it and punishing those who cross it. That set of tools is now a bit less mysterious, thanks to Henry Farrell and Abraham Newman. Their book Underground Empire reveals how the U.S. benefits from a set of institutions built up late last century as neutral means of streamlining global markets."
Christopher Caldwell, The New York Times

“Farrell and Newman’s book is like an MRI or CT scan of recent world history, giving us a new and startling image of the global body politic, as clear as an X-ray. Cognitive mapping takes on a new aspect with their analysis, as they shift from the technological to the historical, showing both how this new nervous system of world power came to be, and how it could be put to better use than it is now. Given the intertwined complexities of our very dangerous polycrisis, we need their insights.”
―Kim Stanley Robinson, author of The Ministry for the Future

Underground Empire is an astonishing explanation of how power really works. From fiber optic cables to the financial system, Farrell and Newman show how the networks that knit us together are also powerful coercive tools, providing a subtle and revelatory account of how the United States learned to weaponize its dominance of the world order’s plumbing. A riveting read, essential for understanding how economic and technological power is wielded today.”
―Chris Miller, author of Chip War

“An eye-opening journey into the hidden networks that power the high-tech world, where all roads lead not to Silicon Valley but to suburban Washington DC, bankers and spies matter as much as tech entrepreneurs, and an industry built by the Cold War has become a geopolitical battleground once again. A truly important book to explain―and move beyond―our tumultuous times.”
―Margaret O’Mara, author of The Code

“The sharpest and most striking analysis I’ve seen in years of the state the world’s in, cunningly disguised as a user-friendly business book.”
―Francis Spufford, author of Golden Hill

Underground Empire tells a riveting story about the deep forces that have shaped our present moment. The book is a portrait not of a single protagonist or event, but rather a system that shapes much of the world today: a web of dollars and data that has, half accidentally, given the United States a new kind of geopolitical control over both its enemies and allies. It is history written in its most powerful form: a view of the recent past that gives us a new lens to better discern our future.”
―Steven Johnson, author of How We Got to Now

If you want to understand where the world economy has been and where it may be headed, you need to read this book.
Dani Rodrik, author of The Globalization Paradox

"Like an iceberg, most of the power and almost all the mechanisms of economic coercion are below the surface, in the very infrastructure that undergirds international commerce. . . . Underground Empire should rightly stimulate much discussion."
Wesley K. Clark, The Washington Monthly

"The publication of Underground Empire could not be more timely. Henry Farrell and Abraham Newman offer an important corrective to a dominant narrative in US foreign policy circles that positions the US and other Western governments as innocent by-standers, caught off-guard by their main rivals."
Times Literary Supplement

"Farrell and Newman set out a compelling thesis, defend it well, and tell a fascinating tale. And when they finish, they leave you with a way to make sense of things that seem senseless and terrible. This may not make those things less terrible, but at least they're comprehensible."
Cory Doctorow, author of Little Brother

"Farrell and Newman write fluidly and grippingly. . . . As the book jumps from nondescript Northern Virginia office parks housing America’s intelligence establishment, to the boardrooms of mid-20th-century New York banks, to sanctions-dodging tankers traversing the Indian Ocean, it’s not hard to detect the influence of techno-thriller writers such as Neal Stephenson."
―The Washington Post

"Farrell and Newman describe the rise over the past 50 years of what they call America’s 'network imperialism.' In an era where markets were supposedly becoming ever-more disembedded from states, the authors show that the opposite was the case.... The vision one leaves their book with is one of great-power conflict where, as usual, those at the bottom of the world’s hierarchy of wealth continue to suffer the most, with no refuge in sight."
―Quinn Slobodian, The New Statesman

"Captivating. . . . A gripping account."
―Financial Times

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