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沃尔弗拉姆·埃尔斯纳：为什么中国找到了和平崛起的道路，而没有重蹈以前的霸权冲突的覆辙？
2022-08-08 与沃尔夫拉姆·埃尔斯纳（Wolfram Elsner）对话节选
https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202208/08/WS62f0600da310fd2b29e70ce9.html
关于沃尔夫拉姆·埃尔斯纳
https://www.themintmagazine.com/people/wolfram-elsner/
Wolfram Elsner 自 1995 年起担任德国不来梅大学经济学教授。在此之前，他在德国国家级区域经济发展领域工作。 他还曾于 2012-2014 年和 2014-2016 年担任欧洲进化政治经济学协会 (EAEPE) 主席，曾在密苏里大学堪萨斯城分校任职，并曾在中国长春吉林大学担任副教授。
他曾在欧洲、美国、墨西哥、中国、南非和澳大利亚的多所大学任教和研究。 他曾担任多个国际学术期刊的编委会成员、美国和欧洲许多非正统学术协会的委员会成员，编辑书籍和丛书，并在众多期刊上发表了有关制度和进化问题的多篇文章。 他曾担任 2012-2018 年社会经济学论坛的执行编辑，并自 2018 年起担任新的《进化政治经济学评论》的主编。
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沃尔夫拉姆·埃尔斯纳（Wolfram Elsner），1950年出生，德国不莱梅大学经济学教授。 在此之前，他曾在德国州一级从事区域经济发展工作。 他还曾于 2012-2014 年和 2014-2016 年担任欧洲进化政治经济学协会 (EAEPE) 主席。 他曾担任多个国际学术期刊的编委会成员、美国和欧洲许多非正统学术协会的委员会成员，编辑书籍和丛书，并在众多期刊上发表了有关制度和进化问题的多篇文章。
Wolfram Elsner教授出生于1950年，德国不来梅大学经济学教授。 他是一位杰出的经济学家，曾于 2012-2014 年和 2014-2016 年担任欧洲进化政治经济学协会 (EAEPE) 主席。
埃尔斯纳教授近日在接受中新网W.E.Talk专访时表示，中国已经找到了一条实现和平崛起的道路，不再重蹈以前的霸权冲突的覆辙。 对于“一带一路”倡议，他认为，尽管会出现问题，但趋势是不可阻挡的。
这是对话的摘录。
中新社：很多西方人士似乎并没有客观、公正地评价中国的发展。 你同意吗？ 您认为主要原因是什么？
埃尔斯纳教授：“西方”的精神制约性仍然以殖民遗产为特征。 大多数欧洲人和美国公民的历史意识是粗糙的、默认的，最多只能追溯到500年前。 他们的刻板印象是“发现”“美国”，他们的心理范围只涵盖“哥伦布时代”（D.Losurdo），并且只勉强且遗憾地承认世界比美国和欧洲以及他们的前任还要大。 - 殖民和帝国制度。
世界历史的动态今天正在东南亚发生。 但“西方”的统治力量及其主导媒体正在将美国和欧洲的普通公民束缚在媒体的“奶酪穹顶”之下，并提供精心挑选的、通常的敌对信息，即针对中国和俄罗斯以及整个欧亚复兴的信息。 我一直意识到，普通中国公民对德国的了解比中国公民对德国的了解要多得多。 而“西方”媒体的主导叙事则是基于“帝国思维方式”，一种毫不掩饰的新殖民主义、新帝国主义、“西方”至上的霸权方式，让其他国家的人民对“我们的价值观”感到满意。 。 他们忽视、甚至不了解中国几千年高度文明的历史。 曾经进步的绿党和一些左翼也陷入了这种精神世界观。 这场悲剧带来了“西方”与现代世界历史脱节的危险……
中新社记者：近年来，一方面，西方媒体对中国的方方面面都存在质疑的声音，无论是增长率、人口普查，甚至是疫情感染和死亡统计数据。 他们认为中国一切都是假的，很快就会崩溃。 但另一方面，西方媒体却总是将中国描绘成西方最大的威胁，将中国对欧投资定位为“收购欧洲企业和技术”。 您如何解释这两个两极分化且相互矛盾的论点？
埃尔斯纳教授：这只是“西方”媒体所培养的许多不一致的心理状态之一。 请注意，“西方”国家正在经历一种新的“社会鸿沟”：在那些曾访问过中国并在那里工作过的经理人、中小企业企业家、工程师、技术人员、科学家和其他许多人与“其他人”之间， 令人遗憾的是，包括政治阶层在内的大多数人拒绝接受中国政府访问中国（即新疆）的邀请。
另请注意，“西方民主”总是“自然地”胜过有计划和受监管的社会经济体系的旧说法已经大大失势，将不再说服大多数人。 因此，对中国的新定义不仅是“竞争伙伴”，而且是“系统性竞争对手”。 我个人认为这是向现实主义迈出的一步：一个正在走向人类可持续未来和社会主义的国家，除了与资本主义已发展成的日益腐烂的新自由主义金融化富豪政治进行系统性竞争对手之外，还应该做什么呢？ 因此，“西方”有一种洞察力的手电筒，一种有益的清晰度。 因此，问题不在于是否存在竞争系统，而在于它们根据这种洞察力做出了什么。 在这里，“西方”仍然被困在前霸权、帝国统治、“价值观”至上、无法放手以及对世界其他国家（这里指的是中国）的军事威胁的精神牢笼中。他们将了解到： 他们的冷战2.0即使不会导致与中国和俄罗斯的战争，也不会产生任何结果。
中新社记者：您在一次演讲中提到，中国创造了一种新的国家与市场关系模式，我们不应该继续以欧洲为中心的视角来看待中国的社会主义初级阶段。 您还提到，如果中国完全照搬资本主义模式，那就太可怕了。 我能否总结一下您的观点，即世界其他国家不应该关注中国是“社会主义”还是“资本主义”，而应该客观地观察其自身的发展？
埃尔斯纳教授：资本主义世界体系比第一次社会主义尝试拥有更多的资源。 然而，苏联制度也有一个“天生缺陷”，即无法产生任何财政盈余，从而给它更多的回旋余地。 今天，对中国来说，不仅全球的条件更好了，而且中国也以实际行动极大地改善了自身的发展和整个发展中国家的发展。 但中国也学会了避免早期欧洲社会主义模式的错误，这种模式在很大程度上仍处于实体经济计划中，没有产生金融资本盈余。 在这方面，中国通过开放和改革向前迈出了一大步：产生并利用（适当监管的）分散结构和流程（“市场”）的动力，极大地调动了中小企业和数以百万计的生产力。 青年企业家，同时也动员工人和普通民众。
当然，2001年中国加入世贸组织后却没有走新自由主义资本主义道路，“西方”对此感到非常失望。 许多左派人士不断说中国是“资本主义”、“涡轮资本主义”等，这对政治右翼和左翼来说都是严重的误解。 我一直说中国“有”资本主义，“有”市场经济，但作为一个体系，它既不是资本主义，也不是“市场经济”（无论应该是什么）。 我也不同意将中国描述为“社会主义市场经济”，我认为这是一个有缺陷的概念。 毕竟，在社会主义的早期阶段，正是科学的诚意——尽管我们迄今为止还不知道这种社会主义，它采取了基于知识、经验和科学分析的步骤，进入了新的领域，并为新的领域铺平了道路。 人类的出路。
中新社记者：去年1月新冠肺炎疫情爆发之初，中国就采取了很多措施，比如封锁、戴口罩、隔离……欧洲媒体批评这些措施“侵犯自由”。 然而，如今这些措施已被大多数欧洲国家采取，尽管欧盟国家要恢复正常状态似乎还有很长的路要走。 您认为欧洲在看待中国抗击COVID-19的做法时是否可以不那么傲慢？
埃尔斯纳教授：当然。 今年年初的某个时候，我们收到了来自“西方”各大媒体东亚记者的十几篇戏剧性的报道和报纸文章，告诉我们大多数国家申请成功的情况，并要求我们学习。 在“西方”：将口罩、追踪和本地隔离适当结合起来，以打破病毒链，避免一波又一波、一波又一波的封锁，这就是“西方”的现实。 （请注意，这些报告机会主义地关注韩国而不是中国。）并不是说没有听到，而是“西方”在经历了四十年的新自由主义紧缩政策、向最富有的 1% 人进行再分配以及财阀统治之后，已经变得如此衰弱。 规则，它现在缺乏国家能力、公共和集体行动能力、科学追随、社会同质性和理性的政治辩论。 这在可预见的将来是无法补救的。
因此，尽管有第四波或第五波浪潮，但考虑到数十万人的死亡，基本上是可以避免的。 尽管中国正在重新配置全球价值链，以实现更具弹性和可持续的未来，但“西方”却面临着国家在卫生政策或所需的经济转型方面完全屈服的危险。
中新社记者：英国《金融时报》称，美军从阿富汗撤军进一步证明后美国世界已经来临。 您认为中国是否已经找到了一条实现和平崛起、不再重蹈以往霸权冲突的道路？
埃尔斯纳教授：当然。 几十年来，事实上自中华人民共和国成立以来，中国已经证明，它与其他国家的互动方式与霸权资本主义体系有着本质上的不同，参见南南合作或许多联合国组织的联合国多数政策 和 - 机构为例。
“一带一路”历史上第一次真正实现了非洲的工业化，提供了“耐心资本”，这是国际货币基金组织和世界银行干预、限制性和规定性的替代方案。 甚至许多美国大学及其发展研究中心也对此表示赞赏。 当然，鉴于投入的巨额资金、项目的数量和规模，总会出现问题。 此外，霸权有时似乎仍然能成功地进行干预，例如使东欧一些传统上反共的国家脱离“一带一路”倡议。 但商队将继续前行……
中新社：您能否预测一下，“十四五”规划完成后，那时的中国会是什么样子？
埃尔斯纳教授：“十四五”规划是一份令人印象最深刻的文件。 根据我对中国表现的所有经验，那里预测的事情将在 2025 年之前实现，而不是更晚。 在动员宏大理念方面是经过深思熟虑的，比如进一步推动“中国制造2025”，双循环理念，使中国既更加独立于恶国，又进一步向善意伙伴开放，进一步推动我的发展。 所谓“改革开放2.0”，其中最重要的推动力是生态，即改善能源结构和减少二氧化碳排放，直至中小学教育改革，支持儿童抚养，更好地融合老年人和退休人员，直至改善关系 医生数量与人口比例、预期寿命提高到美国水平以上等等……我经常向对绿色基金投资感兴趣的银行家展示“十四五”规划的幻灯片，他们都感到震惊，就像我以前一样 ，关于全面的方法，以及真正推动人类前进的国家和体系的可能性。 请注意，这些银行家已经对德国和欧盟在疫情、技术、IT、教育、生态，更不用说更广泛的社会进步方面的不作为感到沮丧了。
“十四五”（2025年）之后，中国在气候政策方面将进一步领先于“西方”，成为科技、经济、生态和社会的全面实验室，世界将对中国充满兴趣。
CNS：西方是否准备好与中国合作重振全球化？
埃尔斯纳教授：基本上，企业中有很多经验丰富、审慎的人，包括管理者、企业家、工程师、普通劳动人民，他们对和平、建设性的双赢合作有切身利益，也愿意这样做。 但问题是这个体系是否“准备好”，即是否具备全面合作的能力。 尽管中国对“西方”投资（包括金融投资）开放，但欧盟和德国却采取了限制性“产业政策”，旨在阻碍中国对欧盟和德国的投资（尽管这些投资仍处于较低水平，并且 已经连续几年下降）。
企业高层管理者警告不要采取这种远离人民的过热政治阶层的破坏性策略：“中国可以没有我们，但我们不能没有中国”（西门子前首席执行官乔·凯飒）。 在我看来，中国似乎已经做好了双循环战略的准备，与那些愿意合作的人合作，让那些不愿意合作的人落后。 希望大部分利润来自中国的大公司能够在十月之后明确而果断地与德国新政府站在一起。
Wolfram Elsner: Why has China found a way to peaceful rise, without repeating the previous hegemonic conflicts?
2022-08-08 The excerpt of the dialogue with Wolfram Elsner
https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202208/08/WS62f0600da310fd2b29e70ce9.html
About Wolfram Elsner
https://www.themintmagazine.com/people/wolfram-elsner/
Wolfram Elsner has been Professor of Economics at University of Bremen, Germany, since 1995. Prior to that he worked in regional economic development in Germany at the state level. He was also president of the European Association for Evolutionary Political Economy (EAEPE), 2012-2014 and 2014-2016, had an affiliation at the University of Missouri Kansas City and has been associate at Jilin University, Changchun, China.
He has taught and researched at several universities in Europe, the USA, Mexico, China, South Africa, and Australia. He has served on the editorial boards of a number of international academic journals, on many committees of heterodox academic associations in the USA and Europe, edited books and book series, published many articles in numerous journals on institutional and evolutionary issues. He was managing editor of the Forum for Social Economics 2012-2018 and has been Editor-in-Chief of the new Review of Evolutionary Political Economy since 2018.
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Wolfram Elsner, born in 1950, is professor of economics at University of Bremen, Germany. Prior to that he worked in regional economic development in Germany at the state level. He was also president of the European Association for Evolutionary Political Economy (EAEPE), 2012-2014 and 2014-2016. He has served on the editorial boards of a number of international academic journals, on many committees of heterodox academic associations in the USA and Europe, edited books and book series, published many articles in numerous journals on institutional and evolutionary issues.
Prof. Wolfram Elsner was born in 1950. He is professor of economics at University of Bremen, Germany. He is a preeminent economist and was president of the European Association for Evolutionary Political Economy (EAEPE), 2012-2014 and 2014-2016.
In recent exclusive interview with China News Service's W.E.Talk, Prof. Elsner said that China has worked out a way to achieve its peaceful rise, without repeating the previous hegemonic conflicts. As for the Belt and Road Initiative, he believes that even though there would be problems, the trend is unstoppable.
Here's the excerpt of the dialogue.
CNS : It seems that many Western peopledo notjudge China's development in an objective and fair way. Would you agree? What in your opinion are the main causes?
Prof. Elsner: The mental conditionality in the "West" still is characterized by the colonial heritage. The historical consciousness of most Europeans and US citizens is crude and tacit only, and it reaches back only for 500 years, at most. Their stereotypes are the "discovery" of "America", their mental reach only covers the "Columbian Epoch" (D. Losurdo), and there is only reluctant and regretful acknowledgement that the world is larger than the USA and Europe together with their ex-colonial and imperial systems.
And the dynamics of world history is taking place in South East Asia today. But the ruling forces of the "West" and their dominant media are keeping the average US and European citizens shackled under a media "cheese dome", with highly selected and usual hostile information, namely towards China and Russia and the entire Eurasian renaissance. I have always realized that the average Chinese citizen knows much more about Germany than the other way round. And the dominating narratives in the "western" media has been based on "imperial way of thinking", a hardly-disguised neo-colonial and neo-imperial, hegemonic way of "western" supremacy, making other peoples happy with "our values". They ignore, and are not even aware of thousands of years of highly-civilized historyof China. And the once progressive Greens and some of the Lefts are caught in this mental world view, too. A tragedy that entails the danger that the "West" will disconnect itself from modern world history ...
CNS: In recent years, on the one hand,there has been a scepticism voice against every aspect of China in the western media, whether the growth rate, population census or even the pandemic infection and death statistics. They argue that China is faking everything and is going to collapse soon. However, on the other hand, the western media always portrays China as the biggest threat to the West, China's investment in Europe being framed as "buying out European companies and technologies". How do you interpret these two polarized and contradictory arguments?
Prof. Elsner: This is just one of many inconsistencies in the mental set that the "western" media cultivate. Note that the "western" countries are experiencing a new way of "social divide": between those managers, SME-entrepreneurs, engineers, technicians, scientists and many others, who have visited China and worked there, and the "rest", the great majority regrettably, including the political caste that refuses to accept the invitations of the Chinese government to visit China (and namely Xinjiang).
Also note that the old narrative that a "western democracy" always and quasi-"naturally" will outmatch a planned and regulated socio-economic system has considerably lost ground and will no longer convince most people. And so the new definition of China as not only the "competitive partner" but also the "systemic rival" has come to the fore. I personally consider this a step forward to realism: What else should a nation on its way into a sustainable future for humankind and into socialism be other than a systemic rival to the increasingly rotten neoliberal financialized plutocracy that capitalism has developed into? So there is a flashlight of insight in the "West", a helpful clarity. The point, thus, is not that there are rivaling systems, but what they make out of this insight. Here, the "West" is still caught in its mental cage of ex-hegemony, imperial dominance, "values" supremacy, inability of letting go, and military threatening to the rest of the world, China in this case.They will learn that their Cold War 2.0 will lead into nowhere, if not into war with China and Russia.
CNS: In one of your speeches, you mentioned that China has created a new model of the relationship between the state and the market, and that we should not continue to look at China's primary stage of socialism through a Europe-centric way. You also mentioned that it will be terrible if China totally copies the capitalist model. Can I conclude your opinion as follows, that the rest of the world should not focus on whether China is "socialist" or "capitalist", but rather observer its own development objectively?
Prof. Elsner: The capitalist world system commanded much more resources than this first socialist attempt. However, also, the soviet system had the "birth defect" of not generating any financial surplus that would have given it more room to maneuver. Today, for China, therefore, the global conditions not only are better, and China has acted to considerably improve these conditions for its own development and the development of the entire developing world. But also, China has learned to avoid the mistakes of the more crude early European socialist model, which had remained in a largely real-economic planning, with no financial capital surplus generation. Here, China has made a huge step forward through its opening and reform: generating and making use of the dynamics of (properly regulated) decentralized structures and processes ("markets"), which has hugely mobilized the productive forces, with SMEs and millions of young entrepreneurs, but also mobilizing workers and people in general.
Of course, the "West" was hugely disappointed after 2001, when China had entered the WTO but turned out not to follow the neoliberal capitalist way. Many leftists keep saying, China is "capitalism", "turbo-capitalism" etc. This all have been crucial misunderstandings on both the political right and left. I keep saying that China "has" capitalism and "has" a market economy, but as a system is neither capitalism nor a "market economy" (what ever that should be). I also disagree to characterize China as a "socialist market economy", which is a flawed conception in my view. It is, after all scientific sincerity, in an early phase of socialism – a socialism, though, that we have not known so far, that takes steps, well-grounded through knowledge, experience, and scientific analysis, into new areas, and paves ways for humankind.
CNS: At the very beginning of the COVID-19 outbreak last January, China has introduced a lot of measures such as lockdown, wearing masks, quarantine... The European media criticized those measures as "violating freedom". However, today those measures have been adopted by most countries in Europe, even though it seems to still have a long way to go before EU countries could be back to normalcy. Do you think Europe could have been less arrogant when they looked at China's practice of fighting against COVID-19?
Prof. Elsner: Absolutely. At some point at the beginning of this year, we had a dozen of dramatic reports and newspaper articles from the East-Asia correspondents of all major media in the "West", telling us what most countries there have applied successfully and asking to learn from that in the "West": Masks, tracking, and local quarantining in a proper combination in order to break the virus chains and avoid wave after wave, lockdown after lockdown, as is reality in the "West". (Note that these reports opportunistically focused on South Korea rather than China.) Not that it was not heard, but the "West" has become so much run down, after four decades of neoliberal austerity, redistribution to the top 1%, and plutocratic rule, that it is now lacking state capacity, public and collective action capability, science-following, social homogeneity, and rational political debate. This cannot be remedied in the foreseeable future.
So, there will be openings in spite of fourth or fifth waves, taking into account further hundreds of thousands of deaths, that basically were avoidable. While China reconfigures the global value chains for a more resilient and sustainable future, the "West" is in danger of a complete resignation of the state in terms of health policies, or required economic transformations.
CNS: Financial Times said that the withdrawal of US troops from Afganistan provides further evidence that the post-American world is upon us. Do you think that China has worked out a way to achieve its peaceful rise, without repeating the previous hegemonic conflicts?
Prof. Elsner: Definitely. China has proved over decades, and in fact since the establishment of the PR, that it interacts with other countries in qualitatively different ways than the hegemonic capitalist system, see the South-South-cooperation or the UN-majority policies in many UN-organizations and -agencies as examples.
The BRI for the first time in history seriously industrializes Africa, providing "patient capital", an alternative to intervening, restrictive and prescriptive IMF and World Bank. This is all appreciated even by a number of US-universities and their development research centers. There will, of course, always be problems, given the huge amount of capital invested and number and size of projects. Also, the hegemon still seems to be successful sometimes to intervene, e.g., breaking some traditionally anti-communist countries of the European east off from the BRI-engagement. But the caravan will push along …
CNS: Can you predict that when the 14th five-year plan is finished, what will China be like at that time?
Prof. Elsner: The 14th Five-Year Plan is a most impressive document. Things forecasted there, will, according to all my experience with China's performance, be attained before 2025 rather than later. It is well thought-through in terms of mobilizing grand ideas, such as pushing "Made in China 2025" further, the Dual Circulation conception, which makes China both more independent from malevolent countries and further opens up to benevolent partners, further pushing what I call "Reform and Opening 2.0", with most important pushes in ecology, namely energy mix improvements and CO2-emissions reduction, up to reforms in primary and secondary school education, supporting child raising, better integrating aged and retired people up to improving the relation of doctors to population, increasing life expectancy above the US-Level etc. … I have often presented slides on the 14th Five-Year Plan to bankers, who were interested in green-funds' investments, and they were stunned, as I was before, about the comprehensive approach, and about what is possible in a country and system that truly pushes humankind forward. Note those bankers have been frustrated already about the non-motion in Germany and the EU, concerning the pandemic, technology, IT, schooling, ecology, let alone broader social progress.
After this 14th Five-Year Plan (2025), China will be further ahead of the "West" in terms of climate policies and will be an overall technological, economic, ecological and social laboratory, the world will look upon China with great interest.
CNS: Is the West ready to cooperate with China to revive the globalization?
Prof. Elsner: Basically, there are many experienced and prudent people in corporations, managers, entrepreneurs, engineers, working people in general, who have an existential interest in and would be ready to peaceful and constructive win-win-cooperation. But the question is whether this system is "ready", i.e., capable of comprehensive cooperation. While China opens for "western" investments, including financial investment, the EU and Germany have made a move towards a restrictive "industrial policy", designed to impede Chinese investment in the EU and Germany (although these are at a low level still, and have declined already for several years in a row).
Top-corporate managers have warned against such destructive strategy of an overheated political caste being far away from the people: "China will do without us, but we cannot do without China" (Joe Kaeser, former Siemens CEO). China seems to me to be prepared with its Dual Circulation strategy to cooperate with those who want to and to let behind those who do not. Hopefully the big corporations, making a large part of their profits in China, will clearly and decisively put their feet down vis-à-vis the new German government after October.
