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Rudd tells Biden he can ease US-China tensions
R Ray Dalio's five megatrends help explain what comes next
桥水创始人达利欧重磅警告：中美正处于“战争边缘” 美国总统大选前情况只会恶化
FX168财经报社(香港)讯 对冲基金桥水(Bridgewater)创始人、亿万富翁瑞·达利欧(Ray Dalio)表示，美国和中国正处于“战争的边缘”，在明年美国总统大选前夕，这种情况只会恶化。
(截图来源：《澳大利亚金融评论报》)
最近两次访问中国的达利欧周三(4月26日)在领英上写道：“这将是一个风险极大的时期，因为中国和美国现在已经处在了战争的边缘，没有能力谈判。”
他表示：“当我说美国和中国处于战争边缘时，我的意思是，他们似乎接近于制裁战争和/或军事战争，双方都不希望发生，但许多人认为可能会发生。”
达利欧的理由有三点，包括双方都“非常接近对方的红线”，同时利用边缘政策迫使对方“冒着越过对方红线的风险”，而在未来18个月里，政治可能会导致更激进的边缘政策。
达利欧表示：“他们非常接近越过红线，如果越过红线，将不可逆转地把他们推到某种战争的边缘，这种战争会损害这两个国家，并以严重和不可挽回的方式对世界秩序造成损害——就像俄罗斯入侵乌克兰对俄罗斯和世界造成的损害一样，只是规模要大得多。”
白宫负责亚洲事务的高级外交官坎贝尔(Kurt Campbell)上月表示，希望中美两国能够在几个月内重新开启沟通渠道。
坎贝尔上月对新美国安全中心(Centre for a New American Security)表示：“我认为，你将在未来几个月看到，美中之间是否有可能重建有效、可预测、建设性的外交关系。”
然而，达利欧表示，中美两国关系非常糟糕，谈判只会使局势恶化。
达利欧说道：“至于双方无法相互交谈，我的意思是，关于重大问题的讨论已经变成了相互指责，使关系恶化，而不是有助于关系，因此进行讨论比避免讨论更糟糕。”
他还认为，在明年总统大选之前，民主党人和共和党人都会加剧这种情况。他说，定于明年1月举行的台湾领导人选举也可能加剧紧张局势。
达利欧表示：“从现在到2024年美国和台湾选举之间的选举周期的政治时间表，可能会导致美国采取更多极限反华边缘政策。虽然两党和大多数美国人都同意反华，但他们无法就反华的程度和方式达成一致。”
他表示，这将是一个“非常危险的时期，因为中国和美国现在已经处于战争的边缘”。
然而，达利欧通过区分“处于战争边缘”和实际武装冲突，缓和了这一信息。
达利欧说道：“我想强调的是，我说他们处于战争边缘，并不是说他们一定会越过边缘。”
达利欧曾写过有关地缘政治对投资影响的书籍。他表示，他正试图促成这两个世界大国之间采取一些和解行动。
他说：“我处于中间立场，既要帮助双方，又要在帮助对方的过程中不伤害任何一方。我最近对中国进行了两次为期13天的访问，其间与来自不同背景的人进行了多次会面和交谈。”
作为全球屈指可数的金融巨头，达利欧对全球市场与投资管理有独到见解，是全球基金投资的重要风向标。
这位亿万富翁最近退出了桥水基金的日常管理。以管理的资产规模计算，这家开创性的对冲基金已被他打造成全球最大的对冲基金。
桥水为主权财富基金中国投资公司(China Investment Corp)管理着数十亿美元资产。
敬告读者：所有内容不代表FX168财经报社立场，仅供读者参考！FX168提供的交易相关数据及资讯不构成投资决策的依据，由此带来的投资风险和损失由交易者自行承担。
Ray Dalio says China, US on ‘brink of war’
https://www.afr.com/world/north-america/ray-dalio-says-china-us-on-brink-of-war-20230427-p5d3k8
Matthew Cranston is the United States correspondent, based in Washington. He was previously the Economics correspondent and Property editor. Connect with Matthew on Twitter. Email Matthew at mcranston@afr.com
Washington | Ray Dalio, the billionaire founder of hedge fund Bridgewater, says America and China are on the “brink of war”, and the situation will only deteriorate in the run-up to the US presidential election next year.
Following a 13-day trip through China, Mr Dalio, whose fund Bridgewater Associates has managed billions of dollars for the sovereign wealth fund China Investment Corp, says he is in a “privileged and awkward position of being deeply attached to the two greatest powers in the world”.
Ray Dalio: “The United States and China are on the brink of war and are beyond the ability to talk.” AP
But his view is not one of optimism.
“The United States and China are on the brink of war and are beyond the ability to talk,” Mr Dalio said in a letter posted on networking platform LinkedIn.
“What I mean when I say that the US and China are on the brink of war is that it appears that they are close to having a sanctions war and/or military war that neither side wants but many believe will probably happen.”
His rationale is threefold, and includes each side being “very close to the other’s red lines”, while using brinksmanship to push the other “at the risk of crossing each other’s red lines”, with politics likely to cause more aggressive brinksmanship over the next 18 months.
“They are very close to crossing red lines that, if crossed, will irrevocably push them over the brink into some type of war that damages these two countries and causes damage to the world order in severe and irrevocable ways – like Russia’s invasion of Ukraine did for Russia and the world, just much bigger,” Mr Dalio said.
The White House’s top Asia diplomat, Kurt Campbell, last month expressed hope that China and the US could reopen channels of communication within a few months following a hiatus initially triggered by former US Speaker of the House’s visit to Taiwan, and prolonged by a Chinese spy balloon over mainland America.
“I think you will see in the coming months whether it’s going to be possible to reestablish effective, predictable, constructive diplomacy between the United States and China,” Mr Campbell told the Centre for a New American Security last month.
Role of mediator
However, Mr Dalio says that the relationship is so bad that talks would only worsen the situation.
“As for the two sides not being able to talk with each other, what I mean is that discussions about big, important things have become exchanges of accusations that worsen relations rather than help them, so it is worse to have the discussions than to avoid them,” Mr Dalio said.
He also thinks the situation will be exacerbated by both Democrats and Republicans in the lead-up to next year’s presidential election. Presidential elections in Taiwan scheduled for January could also add to tensions, he said.
“The political timetable of the election cycle between now and the 2024 elections in the United States and Taiwan will likely lead to more push-the-limit anti-Chinese brinksmanship from the US,” Mr Dalio said.
“While both parties and most Americans agree on being anti-China, they can’t agree on how much and in what ways.”
He says this will be a “very risky period because China and the US are now already on the brink of war”.
However, Mr Dalio tempers the message by differentiating between “being on the brink” of war and actual armed conflict.
“I want to emphasise that by saying that they are on the brink, I don’t mean to say that they will necessarily go over the brink.”
Mr Dalio, who has written books about geopolitical influence on investment, said he was trying to broker some conciliatory actions between the two world powers.
“I am in the middle trying to help both while trying not to hurt either side in the process of helping the other,” he said.
“I recently had two trips to China lasting 13 days that included many meetings and conversations with people from a variety of backgrounds.”
