在政策制定者和商界领袖前往达沃斯之际，全球经济可能面临着自二战以来最大的考验。
俄罗斯入侵乌克兰使疫情危机进一步恶化——危机接连到来，破坏了人们的生活，拖累了经济增长，并推高了通货膨胀。居高不下的粮食和能源价格给全世界的家庭带来沉重负担。融资环境收紧进一步给重债国家、公司和家庭带来了压力。在持续受到扰动的情况下，各国和企业正在重新评估全球供应链。
此外，金融市场波动急剧上升，气候变化持续带来威胁。我们面临着潜在的一系列灾难。
然而，我们的应对能力被削弱了，原因在于乌克兰战争的另一个后果——地缘经济分裂风险的急剧上升。
我们如何走到了这一步？过去三十年中，得益于新技术和新理念的传播，资本、货物、服务和人员的流动改变了我们的世界。这些促进一体化的力量提高了生产率和生活水平，使全球经济规模扩大为原来的三倍，并让13亿人摆脱了极端贫困。
但一体化的成功也带来了自满情绪。长期以来，收入、财富和机会的不平等在太多国家内部持续恶化，近年来各国之间的不平等也在加剧。随着各行各业在全球竞争中发生了变化，一些人被落在了后面。各国政府也在竭力帮助他们。
多年来，贸易、技术标准和安全方面的紧张局势持续加剧，损害了经济增长和人们对当前全球经济体系的信任。根据国际货币基金组织（IMF）的研究，仅贸易政策的不确定性就导致2019年全球国内生产总值下降了近1%。自乌克兰战争爆发以来，我们的监测显示，已有约30个国家限制了粮食、能源和其他重要大宗商品的贸易。
进一步分裂的代价对于各国而言都将是巨大的。从高薪专业人士和从事出口相关工作的中等收入工人，到依靠进口粮食生存的低收入劳动者，每一收入水平的人们都会受到损害。更多人将去其他领域艰难地寻找机会。
想想供应链重构和投资壁垒升高的影响。它们可能会使发展中国家更难向发达国家出售产品，也使它们更难获取技术和积累财富。发达经济体也必须为同样的产品支付更多的费用，从而加剧通胀。由于失去了目前与其共同进行创新开发的合作伙伴，发达经济体的生产率也将受到影响。 IMF的研究估计，仅技术分裂就可能导致许多国家的GDP损失5%。
或者想想，如果各国开发并行的、互不相连的支付系统，以减轻潜在的经济制裁风险，那么公众和企业将为新的交易成本买单。
所以，我们面临一项选择。 要么屈从于那些使我们的世界更贫穷、更危险的地缘经济分裂力量，要么重塑我们合作的方式——在解决共同面临的挑战上取得进步。
恢复对全球体系的信任 —— 四大优先事项
为了恢复人们对以规则为基础的全球体系能够造福于所有国家的信任，我们必须以全新的、更好的方式塑造经济结构。如果我们能够从重点关注那些一旦取得进展就将明显惠及所有人的紧迫问题开始，我们就可以建立必要的信任，在存在分歧的其他领域开展合作。
以下是只有通过共同努力才能推进的四大优先事项。
首先，巩固贸易以提高韧性。
我们现在可以从降低贸易壁垒开始，以缓解粮食和其他产品的短缺问题并降低其价格。
不仅是各个国家，各家企业也需要促进进口的多元化，以确保供应链安全，并维护全球一体化给企业带来的巨大好处。尽管地缘战略因素将主导一些采购决策，但这不会导致全球一体化的逆转。商业领袖在这方面可以发挥重要作用。
IMF的最新研究表明，多元化可以减少一半的因供应扰动引起的潜在GDP损失。汽车制造商等发现，设计可使用替代零件或更容易获得的零件的产品可以减少80%的损失。
提高出口的多元化程度也可以增强经济韧性。支持性政策包括：强化基础设施以帮助企业缩短供应链、增加宽带接入，以及改善营商环境。世贸组织也可通过其对更可预见、更透明的贸易政策的全面支持来提供帮助。
第二，进一步共同推动解决债务问题。
由于约60%的低收入国家存在严重的债务脆弱性，一些国家将需要进行债务重组。如果不开展果断合作来减轻它们的负担，那么它们和其债权人的状况都会恶化。而恢复债务可持续性将吸引新的投资，并刺激包容性增长。
这就是为什么改进二十国集团（G20）债务处理共同框架刻不容缓。这意味着为债务人和债权人制定明确的程序和时间表，并让其他重债脆弱国家也可使用该框架。
第三，实现跨境支付现代化。
低效的支付系统是实现包容性增长的另一个障碍。以汇款为例：国际汇款的平均成本为6.3%。这意味着每年约有450 亿美元从数百万的低收入家庭流向了中介机构。
可能的解决措施是什么？各国可合作开发一个全球公共数字平台 。这将是一项具有明确规则的全新的支付基础设施，使每个人都可以以最低的成本、最快的速度实现安全转账。它还可以与各种形式的货币相连接，包括央行数字货币。
第四，应对气候变化：压倒一切的生存挑战。
在第26届联合国气候变化大会期间，代表全球80%以上排放量的130个国家承诺在本世纪中叶前后实现净零排放。
但弥合目标与政策之间的差距迫在眉睫。为加快绿色转型，IMF已主张采取一种综合性方法，将碳定价和可再生能源投资结合起来，并对那些受到不利影响的人提供补偿。
为民众利益推动取得进展
严峻的事实是，随着我们的经济结构开始瓦解，我们的行动速度过慢。但是，如果各国现在能够找到办法，围绕这些超越国界、影响我们所有人的紧迫问题共同行动，我们就可以开始缓解分裂、加强合作。一些迹象让人心怀希望。
当疫情来袭时，各国政府采取了协调一致的货币和财政措施，以防止再次出现经济大萧条。国际合作对于在极短时间内开发出疫苗至关重要。在全球公司税收方面，137个国家同意进行改革，以确保跨国企业在其开展业务的任何地方都缴纳其应缴税额。
去年，IMF成员国支持6500亿美元的特别提款权历史性分配，以加强各国的储备。就在最近，我们的成员国同意建立韧性与可持续性信托。该信托提供可负担的长期融资，帮助我们更脆弱的成员国应对气候变化和未来的流行病。
在力求取得更大进展的过程中，所有各方都必须坚持一个简单的指导原则：政策是为民众服务的。我们应该采取行动，将 互联世界的好处本地化，而不是追求利润的全球化。
每个国家都有一些社区在过去的全球化中利益受损，并因新冠疫情而进一步倒退。我们首先应支持这些社区：投资于它们的医疗和教育系统。帮助失业者学习所需的技能并转移到正在扩张的行业工作。例如，出口企业的平均工资更高，更环保的就业岗位也是如此。
多边机构也可以在重塑全球合作和抵制分裂方面发挥关键作用，包括进一步强化其治理，以确保其反映不断变化的全球经济动态。即将到来的IMF资本和投票权比重审查将提供一个这样的机会。多边机构还可以利用其号召能力，并最大限度地使用其多元化的工具箱。例如，IMF可以通过其一系列金融工具、双边和全球监督以及对所有成员国的公平做法来提供帮助。
我们没有解决最具破坏性的分裂形式的速效良方。但是，通过与所有利益相关方就迫切的共同关切开展合作，我们可以开始构建一个更强健、更具包容性的全球经济。
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Kristalina Georgieva（简历见链接）
Gita Gopinath 于2022年1月21日起担任IMF第一副总裁。她负责领导IMF工作人员开展工作，代表IMF参加多边会议，与成员国政府和执董会成员、媒体和其他机构高层保持接触，牵头IMF在监督和相关政策上的工作，并负责牵头研究和旗舰出版物的工作。
此前， Gopinath女士于2019至2022年担任IMF首席经济学家。在此期间，她担任IMF的经济顾问兼研究部主任。在她的领导下，IMF发布了十三期《世界经济展望》，包括对新冠疫情对全球经济造成的影响开展预测。她与他人联合撰写了关于如何结束新冠疫情的“疫情文件”。该文件为世界各地接种疫苗建立了目标，得到了全球认可，促成了一个由IMF、世界银行、世贸组织和世卫组织负责人组成的多边工作组，以结束新冠疫情。另外，其还促了一个与疫苗生产商合作的工作组，以识别贸易壁垒、供给瓶颈并加快向低收入和中低收入国家提供疫苗。她还与IMF其他部门一道，与各国政策制定者、学术界和其他利益相关方共同制定了新的分析方法，通过“综合政策框架”帮助各国应对国际资本流动。她还帮助在IMF内部成立了气候变化小组，开展了减缓气候变化最优政策的分析等工作。
在加入IMF之前，Gopinath女士是哈佛大学经济系国际研究和经济学“约翰•兹万斯特拉”教授（2005至2022年）。此前，她曾于芝加哥大学布斯商学院担任经济学助理教授（2001至2005年）。她的研究重点是国际金融和宏观经济学，研究成果被广泛引用，并发表在诸多顶级经济学期刊上。她撰写了大量关于汇率、贸易和投资、国际金融危机、货币政策、债务和新兴市场危机的研究文章。
Gopinath女士是美国艺术与科学院以及计量经济学会当选院士，且是三十人小组成员。此前，她还担任美国国家经济研究局国际金融和宏观经济学项目的联合负责人，纽联储经济顾问委员会成员，以及波士顿联储访问学者。她是当前版本《国际经济手册》的联合编辑，之前担任《美国经济评论》的联合编辑和《经济研究评论》的主编。
Gopinath女士于1971年生于印度，是美国公民及印度海外公民。她曾多次获得奖项和表彰。2021年，《金融时报》将她列为“年度最具影响力的25位女性”之一；国际经济协会授予其“熊彼特 • 哈伯勒杰出研究员”称号，农业与应用经济学协会授予其“约翰肯尼思 • 加尔布雷思奖”；卡内基公司将她列为“伟大的（美国）移民”。她被彭博评为“影响2019年的50人”，被《外交政策》评为“全球顶级思想家”，被《时代杂志》评为“突破重大障碍成为第一的女性”。
Gopinath女士被印度政府授予海外印裔的最高殊荣——萨满奖（Pravasi Bharatiya Samman），并获得华盛顿大学杰出校友奖。她在2014年被IMF评为“45岁以下最杰出的25位经济学家”之一，在2012年被金融时报选为“25位最受关注印度人”之一，2011年被世界经济论坛选为全球青年领袖。
Gopinath女士于2001年获得普林斯顿大学经济学博士学位。此前，她分别获得德里大学文学学士学位，以及德里经济学院和华盛顿大学文学硕士学位。
Ceyla Pazarbasioglu 是IMF战略、政策及检查部主任。在担任该职务期间，她牵头开展了IMF战略方向的相关工作，以及IMF政策的设计、实施和评估。她还负责IMF与其他国际机构（如二十国集团和联合国）的往来工作。
Why We Must Resist Geoeconomic Fragmentation—And How
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Only international cooperation can address urgent global issues such as fixing shortages of food and other products, eliminating barriers to growth, and saving our climate.
As policymakers and business leaders head to Davos, the global economy faces perhaps its biggest test since the Second World War.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has compounded the Covid-19 pandemic—a crisis upon a crisis—devastating lives, dragging down growth, and pushing up inflation. High food and energy prices are weighing heavily on households around the world. Tightening financial conditions are putting further pressure on highly indebted nations, companies, and families. And countries and companies are re-evaluating global supply chains amid persistent disruptions.
Add to this sharply increased volatility in financial markets and the continuing threat of climate change, and we face a potential confluence of calamities.
Yet our ability to respond is hampered by another consequence of the war in Ukraine—the sharply increased risk of geoeconomic fragmentation.
How did we get here? Over the past three decades, flows of capital, goods, services, and people have transformed our world, helped by the spread of new technologies and ideas. These forces of integration have boosted productivity and living standards, tripling the size of the global economy and lifting 1.3 billion people out of extreme poverty.
But the successes of integration have also brought complacency. Inequalities of income, wealth, and opportunity have continued to worsen within too many countries for a long time—and across countries in recent years. People have been left behind as industries have changed amid global competition. And governments have struggled to help them.
Tensions over trade, technology standards, and security have been growing for many years, undermining growth—and trust in the current global economic system. Uncertainty around trade policies alone reduced global gross domestic product in 2019 by nearly 1 percent, according to IMF research. And since the war in Ukraine started, our monitoring indicates that around 30 countries have restricted trade in food, energy, and other key commodities.
The costs of further disintegration would be enormous across countries. And people at every income level would be hurt—from highly-paid professionals and middle-income factory workers who export, to low-paid workers who depend on food imports to survive. More people will embark on perilous journeys to seek opportunity elsewhere.
Think of the impacts of reconfigured supply chains and higher barriers to investment. They could make it more difficult for developing nations to sell to the rich world, gain know-how, and build wealth. Advanced economies would also have to pay more for the same products, stoking inflation. And productivity would suffer as they lost partners who currently co-innovate with them. IMF research estimates technological fragmentation alone can lead to losses of 5 percent of GDP for many countries.
Or think of the new transaction costs on people and businesses if countries develop parallel, disconnected payment systems to mitigate the risk of potential economic sanctions.
So, we have a choice: Surrender to the forces of geoeconomic fragmentation that will make our world poorer and more dangerous. Or reshape how we cooperate—to make progress on addressing collective challenges.
Restoring Trust in the Global System—Four Priorities
To restore trust that the rules-based global system can work well for all countries, we must weave our economic fabric in new and better ways. If we can start by focusing on urgent issues where progress will clearly benefit everyone, we can build the trust needed to cooperate in other areas where there is disagreement.
Here are four priorities that can only be advanced by working together.
First, strengthen trade to increase resilience.
We can start now by lowering trade barriers to alleviate shortages and lower the prices of food and other products.
Not only countries but also companies need to diversify imports—to secure supply chains and preserve the tremendous benefits to business of global integration. While geostrategic considerations will drive some sourcing decisions, this need not lead to disintegration. Business leaders have an important role to play in this regard.
New IMF research shows that diversification can cut potential GDP losses from supply disruptions in half. Auto manufacturers and others have found that designing products that can use substitutable or more widely available parts can reduce losses by 80 percent.
Diversifying exports can also increase economic resilience. Policies that help include: enhancing infrastructure to help businesses shorten supply chains, increasing broadband access, and improving the business environment. The WTO can also help with its overall support for more predictable, transparent trade policies.
Second, step up joint efforts to deal with debt.
With roughly 60 percent of low-income countries with significant debt vulnerabilities, some will need debt restructuring. Without decisive cooperation to ease their burdens, both they and their creditors will be worse off. But a return to debt sustainability will draw new investment and spur inclusive growth.
That is why the Group of Twenty’s Common Framework for Debt Treatment must be improved without delay. This means putting in place clear procedures and timelines for debtors and creditors—and making the framework available to other highly-indebted vulnerable countries.
Third, modernize cross-border payments .
Inefficient payment systems are another barrier to inclusive growth. Take remittances: the average cost of an international transfer is 6.3 percent. This means some $45 billion per year are diverted into the hands of intermediaries—and away from millions of lower-income households.
A possible solution? Countries could work together to develop a global public digital platform—a new piece of payment infrastructure with clear rules—so that everyone can send money at minimal cost and maximum speed and safety. It could also connect various forms of money, including central bank digital currencies.
Fourth, confront climate change: the existential challenge that looms above everything .
During the COP26 climate conference, 130 countries, representing over 80 percent of global emissions, committed to achieve net-zero carbon by around mid-century.
But we urgently need to close the gap between ambition and policy. To accelerate the green transition, the IMF has argued for a comprehensive approach that combines carbon pricing and investment in renewables, and compensation for those adversely affected.
Progress for People
The hard fact is that we have all been too slow to act as our economic fabric started to fray. But if countries can find ways now to come together around these urgent issues that transcend national borders and impact us all, we can begin to mitigate fragmentation and bolster cooperation. There are some hopeful signs.
When the pandemic hit, governments took coordinated monetary and fiscal measures to prevent another Great Depression. International cooperation was essential to developing vaccines in record time. On global corporate taxation, 137 countries agreed on reforms to ensure that multinational enterprises pay their fair share wherever they operate.
Last year, the IMF’s membership supported a historic $650 billion allocation of the Fund’s Special Drawing Rights to strengthen countries’ reserves. Even more recently, our members agreed to create the Resilience and Sustainability Trust—which provides longer-term affordable financing to help our more vulnerable members address climate change and future pandemics.
In the pursuit of further progress, we must all adhere to a simple guiding principle: policies are for people. Instead of globalizing profits, we should act to localize the benefits of a connected world.
Start with the communities in every country that lost out in the “old globalization,” and were set back further by the pandemic: Invest in their health and education. Help displaced workers learn in-demand skills and transition to careers in expanding industries. For example, firms that export pay higher salaries on average—as do greener jobs.
Multilateral institutions can also play a key role in reshaping global cooperation and resisting fragmentation, including by further strengthening their governance to ensure they reflect changing global economic dynamics—the upcoming IMF review of capital and voting shares will provide such an opportunity. They can also leverage their convening power, and maximize use of their diversified toolkits. The IMF can help, for example, with its range of financial instruments, bilateral and global surveillance, and even-handed approach across our membership.
There is no silver bullet to address the most destructive forms of fragmentation. But by working with all stakeholders on urgent common concerns, we can begin to weave a stronger, more inclusive global economy.
