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纽约时报罕见承认：乌克兰问题上，世界大多数国家不跟西方站在一起
刘骞 2022-04-19 观察者网 【编译/观察者网 刘骞】
“我们生活在一个泡沫之中……实际上，世界大多数的政府并不跟我们站在一起。”
美国主流媒体之一《纽约时报》18日发文罕见承认，在乌克兰问题上，并不是世界上所有国家都与西方立场一致。有很多国家属于“中间派”，它们既不支持乌克兰也不支持俄罗斯。西方国家的民众所持有的“全世界集体对付普京”的印象是不真实的。
《纽约时报》报道截图
这篇题为“混乱的中间派”（messy middle）的报道少见地反思了西方国家看待俄乌冲突视角上的狭隘，重点关注了那些在俄乌问题上保持中立、不以制裁的方式解决冲突的国家。
该文章在开头写道，如果你生活在大多数的西方国家中，你的政府正在通过援助武器、制裁俄罗斯等方式支持乌克兰，那么你可能会有一种印象：全世界都在联合起来“回应”俄罗斯在乌克兰的军事行动。
但这不是真的。文章称，全世界195个国家中大多数国家都没有向乌克兰运送武器，或加入制裁俄罗斯。有少部分国家积极支持俄罗斯。其他大部分国家属于“混乱的中间派”，它们既不站在乌克兰一边，也不站在俄罗斯一边。
“在美国和欧洲地区，我们生活在一个泡沫之中……但实际上，世界大多数的政府并不跟我们站在一起。”文章援引美国智库大西洋理事会高级副主席巴里·帕维尔（Barry Pavel）的话说道。
当地时间2022年3月24日，美国纽约，联合国大会24日通过一项关于乌克兰人道主义局势的决议草案。图自视觉中国
那么这些未跟随西方的中间派国家在俄乌问题上究竟是如何行事，它们背后的动机是什么？文章接下来做了一些具体的分析。
首先是印度和以色列。文章称它们是被西方认可的“民主国家”，是美国的重要盟友。但是这两国都未向乌克兰提供武器或者制裁俄罗斯。文章将原因总结为，两国都在国家安全方面需要俄罗斯的帮助，不站队西方更符合它们的“国家利益”。
印度是俄罗斯出口武器的最大买家，长期以来与俄保持着良好关系。以色列则需要俄罗斯来调停其与主要对手伊朗及邻国叙利亚之间的关系。
其他部分拉丁美洲、东南亚和非洲国家也出于“国家利益”做出类似选择。文章称，在3月2日联合国大会关于谴责俄罗斯军事行动决议的投票中，玻利维亚、越南和非洲54国中的近一半都投下弃权票。
其次是对西方持质疑态度的国家。文章称，它们会援引西方国家帝国主义时期的罪恶历史及过往不尊重人权的事例，来说明西方如今在乌克兰问题上的姿态是非正义的。
比如南非总统西里尔·拉马福萨就批评北约组织对俄罗斯的军事行动负有责任，南非驻联合国大使在上月关于乌克兰问题的辩论中批评美国入侵伊拉克造成了严重的人道主义危机。
有些在联合国大会上投票谴责俄罗斯的国家也不支持西方对俄制裁等手段。如巴西驻联合国大使就批评西方给乌克兰送武器以及制裁俄罗斯将会“使战争升级”。
文章把第三种类型的国家称为“俄罗斯的朋友”，中国也被分入这一类型。该文声称中国把俄乌冲突视为“一个机会”，可以制衡美国、提升自身的地缘政治地位。不过它也承认中国“似乎没有向俄罗斯提供武器或经济援助”，在西方和俄罗斯之间保持着微妙的平衡。
值得注意的是，该文章最后也提及，随着俄乌冲突的持续，这些目前还维持中立姿态的国家未来将面临更多西方国家要求“选边站”的压力。到那时，即使是选择中立也需要勇气。
当地时间4月18日，美国国务院发言人内德·普莱斯（Ned Price）在简报会上再度炒作“中国援助俄罗斯”，并施压中国“谴责俄罗斯”，逼迫中方选边站队。
秦刚在美国《国家利益》杂志发表署名文章
同日，中国驻美大使秦刚在美国《国家利益》杂志发表署名文章进行回应。秦刚强调，中国过去是、将来也是独立自主的大国，始终坚持从事情的是非曲直出发作出判断、决定立场，不受任何外来压力干扰。所谓中方事先知情俄方对乌军事行动以及中方向俄方提供军事援助都是虚假信息。类似俄乌冲突的事件如果发生在其他地方、其他国家之间，中国也会持今天这样的立场。
The ‘Messy Middle’
The West is arming Ukraine and punishing Russia. Today we look at the countries that aren't.
Volodymyr Zelensky addresses the United Nations Security Council this month.Credit...Timothy A. Clary/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images
If you live in most any Western country, your government’s support for Ukraine, including sending weapons and imposing sanctions on Russia, can give the impression of a united global response to Vladimir Putin’s invasion.
But that isn’t the case. Most of the world’s 195 countries have not shipped aid to Ukraine or joined in sanctions. A handful have actively supported Russia. Far more occupy the “messy middle,” as Carisa Nietsche of the Center for a New American Security calls it, taking neither Ukraine’s nor Russia’s side.
“We live in a bubble, here in the U.S. and Europe, where we think the very stark moral and geopolitical stakes, and framework of what we’re seeing unfolding, is a universal cause,” Barry Pavel, a senior vice president at the Atlantic Council, told me. “Actually, most of the governments of the world are not with us.”
Today’s newsletter offers a guide to some of those countries and why they have committed to their stances.
National interests
India and Israel are prominent democracies that ally with the U.S. on many issues, particularly security. But they rely on Russia for security as well and have avoided arming Ukraine or imposing sanctions on Moscow. “In both cases, the key factor isn’t ideology but national interests,” says my colleague Max Fisher, who has written about Russia’s invasion.
India is the world’s largest buyer of Russian weapons, seeking to protect itself from Pakistan and China. India joined 34 other countries in abstaining from a United Nations vote that condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, as you can see on the map below. And India appears to be rebuffing Western pleas to take a harder line.
Israel coordinates with Russia on Iran, its chief adversary, and in neighboring Syria (with which Russia has a strong relationship). Russian-speaking émigrés from the former Soviet Union also make up a sizable chunk of the Israeli electorate. Israel’s prime minister has avoided directly criticizing Putin, and though its government has mediated between Ukraine and Russia, little has come out of the effort.
Several Latin American, Southeast Asian and African countries have made similar choices. Bolivia, Vietnam and almost half of Africa’s 54 countries declined to support the U.N. resolution condemning Russia. Some rely on Russian military assistance, said Bruce Jones, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. Others don’t want to risk jeopardizing trade relations with China, which has parroted Russian propaganda about the war.
Those countries “might be more accurately described as disinterested,” Max says, unwilling to risk their security or economies “for the sake of a struggle that they see as mostly irrelevant.”
West skeptics
Some countries, citing the West’s history of imperialism and past failures to respect human rights, have justified opposing its response to Ukraine. South Africa’s president blamed NATO for Russia’s invasion, and its U.N. ambassador criticized the U.S. invasion of Iraq during a debate last month about Ukraine’s humanitarian crisis.
Other countries, including some that voted to condemn Russia’s invasion, accuse the West of acting counterproductively. Brazil’s U.N. ambassador has suggested that arming Ukraine and imposing sanctions on Russia risk escalating the war.
“There’s nothing intellectually incoherent between viewing Russia’s actions as outrageous and not necessarily fully siding with the West’s reaction to it,” Jones told me.
Autocratic leaders — including in the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Nicaragua — may also feel threatened by Ukraine’s resistance and the West’s framing of the invasion as a struggle between democracy and authoritarianism, experts said. “They’re concerned that this could inspire opposition movements in their own countries,” Nietsche said.
Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping in Beijing in February.Credit...Alexei Druzhinin/Sputnik, via Agence France-Presse — Getty Images
Russia's friends
China, with all its economic and military might, has seen the war as a chance to enhance its own geopolitical standing as a counterweight to the U.S. while still maintaining ties to Russia. The countries recently issued a joint statement proclaiming a friendship with “no limits.” But China has struggled with the delicate balancing act of honoring that commitment without fully endorsing Russia’s invasion: Beijing has denounced Western sanctions but has not appeared to have given Russia weapons or economic aid.
“China's support for Russia, while very important, is also carefully hedged and measured,” Max says.
Four countries — North Korea, Eritrea, Syria and Belarus — outright voted with Russia against the U.N. resolution condemning the invasion of Ukraine. Belarus is a former Soviet state whose autocratic leader asked Putin to help suppress protests in 2020 and allowed Russia to launch part of its invasion from within Belarus.
Russia intervened in Syria’s civil war on behalf of the Moscow-aligned government there, and Syria is sending fighters who may aid Russian forces in Ukraine.
What's next?
It’s not unusual for countries to avoid picking sides on big global issues. Several stayed neutral during World War II; dozens sought to remain free of both U.S. and Soviet influence during the Cold War.
But if the war in Ukraine drags on, Jones said, neutral countries could come under stronger international pressure to condemn Moscow. And for countries with close ties to Russia, even neutrality can be an act of courage.
More on Ukraine
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The fate of Mariupol, in the southeast, hinges on a battle at a steel factory, where Ukrainian forces are holding out.
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Capturing Mariupol would create a land bridge between Russia’s stronghold in Crimea and eastern Ukraine.
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Russian forces fired missiles at Lviv, in western Ukraine, killing at least six people. It’s part of a pattern of attacking cities even as they prepare for an offensive in the east.
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In Russia, brutal crimes by soldiers are rarely investigated or acknowledged — let alone punished.
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A Ukrainian village is haunted by the disappearance of five men who went to feed the cows.
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