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气候

(2021-10-15 17:59:57) 下一个
 
如果全球气温上升2ºC
如果全球气温只上升2ºC,已是万幸了
 
 “放心啦,援助,肯定的”; “一群傻帽” | image tagged in rich white men laughing | made w/ Imgflip meme maker
 
 
 
一个多月前,习近平和拜登均在联合国年会上发言【1】,习近平表示中国不再给新火力发电厂提供资金,拜登则表示美国将会给已经提供的援助基金加倍,两位领导人的许诺,被誉为是全球对抗气候变化的重要一步,是一件大事。中国的决定,使得以后世界上兴建新火力发电厂更难【2】,但却反映了当今世界的一个现实:发展中国家和落后国家的发展还没起步,工业化遥遥无期,需要的是能源,巨大、稳定的能源往往来自火力发电厂,如果不能兴建新的火力发电厂,那他们怎么发展?他们能靠西方的援助吗?能靠拜登“加倍”的援助吗?在2015年巴黎的世界气候峰会上,发达国家许诺给发展中国家和落后国家每年提供1000亿美元的援助【3】,发达国家几年前已经开始提供了,但据统计,2020年肯定达不到1000亿,美国一直只给28.5亿,今年4月拜登才加到57亿,这次翻番,是到114亿,可是从历史排放的数量分配,美国责任是434亿美元
 
 
各自寻求方案?不就是各顾各,各管各吗?
 
1. 表态
 
联合国:大国里每一个尽责了的
 
 
2. 资金
 
无穷多
 
美媒不愿意给美国点名
 
, diplomats from Canada and Germany said on Monday in a joint statement that they expected “significant progress toward the U.S.$100 billion goal in 2022 and express confidence that it would be met in 2023.”
美国那点,基本上就是“责任全在他人”,拜登在白宫大骂中印,在通过党媒透露出来,就是这种心态,老实说这你不能不联想其帝国主义和殖民主义,奴役完了,掠夺完了,大家赶紧将民主、自由,人权,习近平不出席,有人推测说那是习近平给西方翻白眼,这也不无道理
 
作为一个阵营,发达国家承诺到2020年之前每年出资1000亿美元,用来满足上述要求。但是到了2021年秋,只有790亿美元承诺资金到位,而且其中大部分是贷款,是需要偿还的借贷资金,而不是项目拨款或无偿资助。
 

 

 

 

3. 中国
亚洲的艰难
 
【中国的责任】
习近平的许诺还不小,但是
 
中国似乎是把希望寄托在技术上,而不是传统的减排、零排放,因为从现有的水平,2060年不可能实现碳中和
 
 
中国这几十年的高速发展,出乎了世界的预料,也出乎了中国人自己的预料(也许是中国不少人哄哄的原因)但这一段高速发展时期是建立在化石燃料的基础上的,,
 
China has pushed back against calls for the UN climate conference in Glasgow to aim to limit global temperature rises to 1.5C.
The country's top climate negotiator, Xie Zhenhua, said the higher rise of 2C agreed under the 2015 Paris Agreement had to remain up for discussion.
"If we only focus on 1.5, we are destroying consensus and many countries would demand a reopening of the negotiations," he said.
 
 
 

 

 

 

 

 

印度

 

 

 

印度的许诺是2070零排放,这是可以理解、接受的,印度要发展
By 2030 will increase #Nonfossil fuel capacity to 500 GW.
By 2030 India will get  50% energy from #renewable
By 2030 1 billion tonne carbon reduction
By 2030, more than 45% emission intensity reduction
By 2070- India will achieve #NetZero
 
4. 美国
 
美国能源结构
Chart showing nuclear has generated a fifth of US electricity since the late 1980s
 
 
美国太舔了
可拜登不这么说,怎么说呢?老实承认说美国不行?
苏利文:中国不行
但美国另一个党媒挑明了,美国这点伎俩,中国看得清
There's been ongoing virtual meetings [and] the U.S. has been out in full force with Kerry’s team really focused on delivering at this conference,
that Chinese policymakers are skeptical of U.S. climate rhetoric as they’ve watched Biden scale back climate provisions of his infrastructure bill due to political gridlock.
 
 

 

 

 

 

 

A blueprint for how developed countries will contribute $100 billion a year to poor nations confronting climate change is set to be unveiled on Monday despite objections from the U.S. and other nations that almost derailed the announcement
 

 

 

 
 
不仅仅美国不能找个借口说议会制民主必须坚持,所以通不过也没办法,但通不过就是通不过,就是失职,民主也是失职,而且还给人一种民主反而碍事的感觉,况且从拜登当局对油价的态度,一切都是虚假的
 
 
 
美国捅了气候全权大使克里(John Kerry)一刀,说他是投降派,要拜登总统“软下来”,苏利文坚决表示“不跟中国做任何交易”,
 which has identified both climate change as an “existential threat” and China as “the biggest geopolitical test of the 21st century.”
拜登左右为难
The Biden administration rejects the notion that it’s traveling to Scotland empty-handed, noting its ambitious emissions target and pledge to double U.S. financial support for developing countries to adopt clean-energy technologies.
党媒跟中国差不多
many world leaders may see those commitments as merely words on a page rather than concrete action
Sullivan disagreed苏利文是反对和中国降温的砥柱,大概有国安委坎贝尔带头的鹰派在做后盾,不过不急降温也不只是美国这么想,中国也一直给美国吃冷馒头,结果反而让美国改变了策略,苏利文也改了
The disappointing meetings ended up uniting Biden’s team behind the need to connect the two presidents
但“责任全在中国”. “There was unanimity in the administration at this point that we were not getting anywhere in the bilateral relationship at that level and we were concerned that Beijing was not being responsible in its management of the competition.”
为难:Kerry’s deputy, Jonathan Pershing, has told lawmakers that the U.S. government will need more time, five to 10 years, to move the global supply chain for solar panels away from Xinjiang
另一个来源:
 
两年前,克里还担心输给中国了,现在说中国不够?
 
美国:我们美国自己不能出太多的力,但世界就应当出了,他们不出力,责任在他们,我们也没办法
But they also believe world leaders understand that the domestic talks are out of Kerry's control
Kerry’s Secret to Sealing a Global Methane Deal: Lower the Bar
More than 90 countries have signed the emissions-reduction agreement pushed by the U.S. and EU, which is non-binding and doesn’t include national targets
 


****天然气与中国****

 

 

中国和美国签订长期(20年)“巨额”液化天然气协议
合同规定美国每年向中国供应400万吨天然气
但数量太少,2020年中国进口1315亿立方米的天然气(近一亿吨)
 
让中国从美国进口的液化天然气总量在去年310万吨的基础上增加一倍。
 
中国天然气产量为1925亿立方米,但消费量达3240亿立方米,这意味着有近1315亿立方米的天然气需求要依靠进口来满足;同时,截至2020年末,中国天然气消费对外依存度已达40%以上,其中,进口液化天然气(LNG)占中国天然气进口量的60%以上
 
2020年,我国共进口了6670万吨液化天然气,占天然气进口总量的65.61%。2021年一季度,我国共进口了1955万吨LNG
中国进口LNG的40%来源于澳大利亚、政治局势或引发变数
澳大利亚对中国的液化天然气出口在2020至2021年创下纪录
 
 
产量(左):亿立方米(这是普通天然气,不是液化)
 
进口(左):万吨
 
累计进口天然气5982万吨,同比增长22.9%。其中,LNG进口量为3978万吨,占当期我国天然气进口量的66.5%;管道气进口量为2004万吨,占比为33.5%。
 
 
中国的天然气:进口在12-01-2020达138,371.132百万立方米,相较于12-01-2019的129,730.000百万立方米有所增长。中国天然气:进口数据按年更新,12-01-1975至12-01-2020期间平均值为0.000百万立方米,共46份观测结果。该数据的历史最高值出现于12-01-2020,达138,371.132百万立方米,而历史最低值则出现于12-01-2005,为0.000百万立方米。CEIC提供的中国天然气:进口数据处于定期更新的状态,数据来源于Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries,数据归类于世界趋势数据库的机构:能源行业 – 表 RB.OPEC.NG:天然气进口。
中国 天然气:进口
 
2020年我国新增天然气探明地质储量达到1.29万亿立方米(20年)
2020年,我国进口天然气10166万吨(约1403亿立方米),同比增长5.3%。其中,液化天然气进口量6713万吨,同比增长11.5%,气态天然气进口量3453万吨,同比下降4.9%。受国产气快速增长和需求增速放缓影响,我国天然气进口增速回落。天然气对外依存度约43%,较2019年回落约2个百分点。
管道进口=
 
2020年,我国储气库工作气量达147亿立方米,较2019年略有增长,约占全国天然气年度消费总量的4.5%。(17天)
2020年,我国LNG接收站总接收能力达8700万吨/年,同比增长14.2%,年新增接收能力1085万吨/年,在建和扩建项目潜力巨大。若在建和规划项目如期建成,预计2025年接收能力将接近1.8亿吨/年。(一旦打仗,这1.8亿吨就出问题了)
 
大丈夫能伸能缩;为了国家的繁荣富强,某些委屈我国还是能够忍受的,毕竟是有”大肚量“的国家!
 
Deliveries from Australia were up 7.3% from the previous record of 28.6 million tonnes posted in the full year ending June 2020,
 
 
In 2020, total annual U.S. natural gas exports were 5.28 Tcf
 
spot trades in which cargoes are freely bought and sold account for 10-20 per cent of America’s 10bn cubic feet a day of LNG shipments
 
****天然气与中国****结尾
 
The American president seems to want to make decisions in the U.S.’s selfish strategic interest, but without the consequences that come with doing so
“gave us the rise of an authoritarian China”译成“给我们带来了一个崛起的中国”
 
美国自己的“价值”和气候价值
 
****以上是其他****

 

 

 

第六条(Article 6),涉及如何利用国际碳交易市场来减少各国碳排放
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 
 
5. 西方的责任
 
西方有没有责任除了减排,还率先把大气中的的二氧化碳回收,让其他国家有个发展的机会?
 

 

 

20强峰会啥也没有,
“I leave Rome with my hopes unfulfilled—but at least they are not buried,” U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres said on Sunday.
拜登: singled out Russia, China and Saudi Arabia as standing in the way
developing nations are going to divide the burden of limiting emissions
Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India had urged G-20 leaders to give 1% of gross domestic product to developing nations to ease their transition away from fossil fuels
 
 
6. 对世界(中西)现状的质疑
 
这种观点也许只在左派里见到,但不得不把体制地价值观提出来,西方的价值观被自己怀疑,对于西方的自信来说不是什么是值得自豪的事
美国冠疫死亡人数还是那么高,高到拜登当局都不说了,认了,在国际社会面前也不是什么面子,
 

中国的发展方式肯定有很多问题,对能源的依赖性太高,

 
《彭博》给20强领袖的描述没有半点恭维
 
7. 如果上升超过2°C
 
生态
An infographic containing information about the impacts of 1.5 degree and 2 degree warming, and the difference between both.
 
气候
2 vs. 1.5
 
 
 the 1.5°C target appears to many experts to be out of reach. A United Nations report in 2018 concluded as much, saying back then that average global temperatures will likely reach 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels sometime between 2030 and 2052 if emissions continue rising as they have been“如果”。但这如果绝对不是如果,而是必然,当今世界上没有任何一个国家愿意,能做出扭转全世界局面的行动。的确,西方已经在减排,但那是两百年积累的结果,大家没那个“福气”
 
后果
Extreme heat
Rising sea levels:比现在升0.5米
这种预料是靠不住的,因为大自然的变化是非线性的,而且在极端环境高阶导数占主导地位,预测0.5米,结果肯定是大于1米
Declining biodiversity
Melting Arctic sea ice
At-risk coral reefs
Declining global fisheries
Rising poverty
Health impacts
Food impacts因为灾难是全球性的,如果出现粮荒,那么就有饥民,很可能冲击其他国家,美国有拉丁美洲(比较好控制),欧洲面临非洲和中东,印度也说不清,中国自身难保,那时恐怖主义是不是因为灾荒而盛行?
 
It said the average sea level rise was 2.1mm a year from 1993 to 2002, but 4.4mm a year from 2013 to 2021, mostly the result of accelerating loss of ice from glaciers and ice sheets. Prof Jonathan Bamber at Bristol University’s glaciology centre said: “If we continue on our current trajectory, that rise could exceed 2m by 2100 and displace some 630 million people worldwide
4.4毫米的速度到本世纪末是0.5米,但速度在增加,所以十年后速度可能是每年1厘米了,二十年后2厘米,甚至还会上升。
 
 
 
什么时候过2°C?
Map animation showing human climate niche, the suitability of land for habitation.  In 2020, 0.8% of the earth’s surface had a mean annual temperature (MAT) of 29C or more, and was home to 29m people.  By 2070, 19% of the earth’s surface will have an MAT of at least 29C, affecting up to 3bn people
Up to 3bn out of the projected world population of about 9bn could be exposed to temperatures on a par with the hottest parts of the Sahara by 2070, according to research by scientists from China, US and Europe(预测)
目前只有大约三千万人
 very narrow mean annual temperature band of 11C-15C (52F-59F)
 
海平面上升不是第一大威胁,第一大威胁是气候上升致使很多地区温度远高于2°C,没法生活,到时多少难民?多少恐怖主义?
 
8. 现实、大局
 
近期的能源荒给石化产业繁荣
 

 

 

A pledge to end deforestation aims to protect ‘the lungs of our planet
This pledge to end deforestation is a lot less than it appears on the surface
 
20强峰会唯一清晰的答案:
James Ferguson illustration of  Gideon Rachman column ‘UK-French rivalry puts the west at risk’
 

 

 

 

不是那么糟糕
你愿意做出什么牺牲?西方的废话,没行动,才是牺牲
印度:英国以为自己的面子
人类生存:确有其事
人类还是在进步,不足,但不是瞎扯
 
中国:别光说,看行动
 
 
 
 
什么人担心气候?
 
 
 
More frequent severe weather events are leading to an increase in economic losses but improved evacuations have reduced death tolls. Charts showing Top 10 disasters by reported economic losses and deaths since 1970
 
多渺茫
但是
真的吗?
《华邮》也难说是权威性的,但至少说明数字松动余地很大,非常不精确
While the Paris agreement calls for a more transparent system by the end of 2024, it could take until 2030 to get to robust reporting
主要是这位的工作:Phillipe Ciais, the French emissions expert
But it only looks at individual countries, not the whole world as The Post has done
痛宰马来西亚,值吗?
 
不过,即使二氧化碳排气有所控制,气温还是会上升,因为太多,要排除、回收
另一个估计
 
 
 
 
如果20强峰会,联合国气候峰会的目标是2°C,我还有些希望,知道世界领袖们不是耍嘴皮。是当真,严肃;保目标定成1.5°C,就是应付、糊弄环保女孩
 
环保女孩们:欺骗!
 
信心:
 
The analysis reveals widespread agreement between four different groups assessing the climate outcomes of COP26. They suggest that current policies will lead to a best-estimate of around 2.6C to 2.7C warming by 2100 (with an uncertainty range of 2C to 3.6C).
最重大的成就是大家把意图说得更清楚了,这样就估计就跟准确了
 
 
 
四个组织(the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), Climate Action Tracker (CAT), the International Energy Agency (IEA) and Climate Resource (CR), an Australia-based climate analysis group)的估计,比起各国现有的政策,气候峰会还是有成就的,但1.5°C肯定是没戏
 
拜登当局不论口头上唱得多高,本质上还是争霸
 
“I don’t see anybody thinking about global cooperation seriously.”
美国能接受这种以一个更大的世界为视觉,自己只是其中一个成员,而不是独一无二的领袖的安排吗?
 
美国喉舌还倒打一耙
Russia, China or America would help one another in the face of an invasion of space aliens threatening us all.可是
The Washington Post reported last week that some in the Chinese leadership want to resist any substantial cooperation with America on climate issues until the United States dials down its pressure on China “over human rights, Hong Kong, Taiwan, trade and a range of other issues.”基本上对美国自己的责任、无为缄口不言,对美国的军事围堵置若罔闻,责任全在他人(战狼是王毅所为?)
What we need instead of an arms race or a space race is an Earth race 这正是美国所做的,傻帽
Myself, I am going to declare America’s intention to win the Earth race瞎扯
佛里德曼用一个想象中的“白等”来形容一个现实中的美国,以此攻击中国

 

 

 

习近平强调,中方愿本着相互尊重、和平共处、合作共赢的原则,同美方加强各领域交流合作,共同应对重大国际和地区问题、全球性挑战,同时妥善管控分歧,推动中美关系重回健康稳定发展的正确轨道。希望美中关系全国委员会及关心支持中美关系发展的各界朋友坚定信心、继续努力,为中美友好事业贡献更多智慧和力量,更好造福两国人民和世界各国人民
习近平说的,比拜登更诚恳,这都不是说习近平更善良,而是和平对中国有利,中国不需要争第一,因为中国的“自信”,只要沿着目前的速度,中国肯定会超过美国,美国不允许中国按现有的途径发展,某种程度是心虚,所以抛出“不公平竞争”之类的借口,而其实美国对中国的限制,已经没什么自由贸易的意思了,一个不高兴,就以“国安”为理由加以限制(而且这都是非法的,U.S. trade chief Tai says getting 'traction' with China in 'Phase 1' deal talks | Reuters),但美国这还觉得不够,巴不得一战把中国炸回旧石器时代
哈佛经济学家把这解释得很清楚,美国要争霸,所以把一切看成零和,而中国还觉得有点共赢
 
没人否认中国是个专制的国家,老百姓放个屁,政府都胆战心惊,要把人抓起来,而美国自由是多多了,但美国的罪孽和成就一般大,可以说过去几十年世界上最大的罪都是美国犯的,所谓自由与专制,民主对集权,看上去很有理由,实际上大家都是混蛋,所以如果美国把这些招牌拿出来,实际上是掩盖不可告人的目的:争霸
 
又卖国了
China used backroom negotiating to make itself a player, though far from a leader, at the global climate summit:美国人真的敢说
Wednesday's agreement is a first step more than a final deal, and rests on a shaky foundation — the friendship between U.S. climate envoy John Kerry and his Chinese counterpart, Xie Zhenhua
上面又是瞎扯了,是习近平和拜登在背后催的
Mr. Xi wants a less volatile relationship with Washington as he focuses on domestic politics—specifically, claiming an unprecedented third term at a party conclave set for late next year
 
 
 
This is Canada. We aren’t just failing to address the growing climate crisis to come; we’re unprepared even for the impacts already here — in part because they keep surprising us with their intensity and in part because, in places across the global north, we can’t seem to fathom our genuine vulnerability.
 
 
【材料】
 
 
 
 
 
 
中国
据群众反应,《纽时》这篇文章内容还是挺客观的,但小编把标题写成反华,(at a tremendous cost to the global effort to fight climate change)
2.2亿吨,比去年增加6%
Then stringent new legislation took effect on March 1. Mine managers who dig more coal than their government-approved capacity faced potentially long jail sentences
在中国,煤超产是要坐牢的(今年3月起),国企也没这打算,得等韩正亲自下令,大家才敢动手。
 
 
 
【2】世界各国都有私有机构继续给兴建新火力发电厂提供基金,也有这个需要。但是西方为了减排,公开暗地给中国使坏【3】,已经很难。
【3】似乎只是从2020年开始
 
 
 
 
 
残酷的现实:排气差距(emission gap)
 
 
 
 
美国:
欧盟(加英国,EU28):
中国:
 
印度:
 
 
美国的目标是2030年减排到2005年的一半。你可以问为什么选2005年?因为2005年是美国碳排的峰值,美国所谓的“王者”领导,其实是耍了诡计,美国今年就已经几乎比2005年降了20%了,本来这目标不怎么难,但美国都有力不从心的样子。
 
澳大利亚
 
 
拜登当局的外交政策基本上与川普无异,非常赤裸裸,就是一个反中,其他一切都是幌子,习近平在川普当政时没能利用,拜登时还是处处处于下风,唯一反映的,是中国外交政策的无能。中国在台湾问题上被美国逼得无处可退,却
前几天拜登在东盟峰会上拜登说美国马上要提出一个经济纲领,但谁都知道那是在大家对美国缺乏经济上的政策有意见,美国除了中国威胁论还是中国威胁论,到处比大家挑边,连东盟公开说不挑边,美国也假惺惺说不要大家挑边,最后还是在威逼大家挑边。大家都烦了,这次这么说,就是一句空话,只有美国党媒
今天拜登在20强(G20)峰会前跟法国总统马克龙会面,算是上次捅了法国一刀后首次碰头,为了给马克龙消气,但开口就说自己不知道法国被蒙在鼓里,这是世界第一强国的领袖说的,就是说整个“奥英美联盟”就像几个军师瞎折腾一番,领导脑子不好使,啥也不知道,就定下了。这就是21世纪大国决战的水平
Representatives of the very European Union nations that Biden would address in his upcoming conferences appear to be among those to have realized this
但是习近平这么臭,欧盟还是心甘情愿地站在美国一边痛打中国,中国的新疆、香港和台湾政策,台湾现在朋友多多(Taiwan’s charm offensive pits Europe against China – POLITICOTaiwan's Wu urges partners to step up South China Sea exercises - Nikkei Asia),大家抱团一起跟
中医边境冲突的原因外人不了解实情,双方各自有各自的说法,但中印冲突是习近平外交上的败笔,也许莫迪一直想跟中国摊牌,但把印度正是逼成敌人,是战略上的失败。
 
美国的策略是,如果美国能拉动其他国家,如印尼、印度、澳大利亚许诺,那么中国就显得很没脸,只能跟上,这就是说,
 
The six-hour meeting White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan had with his Chinese counterpart in Zurich on Wednesday may have done more to defrost the U.S.-China relationship than anything since President Biden took office
Yes, but: Asked for any single area in which the U.S. and China were currently able to work productively or had made any tangible progress, the official did not name one
美国的立场是绝对不会再任何领域让步,这就出问题了
Sullivan reiterated the U.S. position that cooperation on climate change must be separate from other issues in the relationship, such as the genocide in Xinjiang
 
 
 
美国投降派:
 
 
气温预测
在2015年的巴黎协议上,各国“口头”许诺要竭尽全力保证(本世纪)把全世界气温上升限制在2°C之内,尽量做到1.5°C之,但就目前的趋势,2030年至2032年之间,1.5°C肯定是到了,2°C则是2052年【气候科学有不准确的一部分,数据和目标有一定的估计程度,各种模型的预测也不尽相同】,这很难避免,因为现在气温比起工业革命之前已经上升了1.2ºC了,按照气候组织Carbon Brief用回归法推算,2024年就到了。
 
 
五种情景:
 
在1.5°C限度里,现在全世界还有420吉吨(十亿)的二氧化碳可排放(66%概率),相当于10年时间,但发展中国家还在增排,中国只答应了2030年封顶,发达国家的排放量是在下降,但不足以补偿发展中国家的增长
 
国内扯皮不能是借口,因为这是同一个国家,如果国内不能达成协议,那是国家的领导阶层不能达成协议,对于国外来说,“内斗”根本是无关的事儿。最高法院要考虑是不是限制环保局给污染制定规矩的权力,这是什么?
But his administration has also approved a flurry of new oil and gas drilling permits on public lands, urged oil-producing countries to ramp up production to help lower gasoline prices and declined to stop major fossil fuel projects such as Line 3, an oil pipeline expansion in Minnesota that has sparked violent clashes between police and those protesting against its construction.
没有碳税,只有奖励
 
责任全在他人
“There’s no legally binding mechanism,”
对于一个自己空话连篇的政府坐在那儿给他人训话,包括印度,真是
 
民主党岌岌可危,美国民主也岌岌可危,2024年共和党竞选人都将是小川普,一个比一个极端
 
 
 
For starters, the administration could revoke the permits for pipeline constructions (Line 3, Line 5, and Mountain Valley) and declare climate change a national emergency – which would open up vast federal resources and capabilities. Biden could also reinstate a ban on crude oil exports which was lifted in 2015 under Obama.
 
This is indicative of the administration refusing to directly confront the fossil fuel industry. “Biden could reinstate [the crude oil ban] as soon as he wants to, but we’ve seen consistently an unwillingness to meaningfully challenge the fossil fuel industry in really any way,”
 
 
 
 
 

 

 

 

 
补充
 
A power crunch forced factories to slow output, while sporadic coronavirus outbreaks and stringent measures to curb them have damped consumption.
但出口没受影响
China’s virus controls meant its factories won orders this year as large-scale outbreaks in countries such as Vietnam, India and Malaysia caused business closures
 
中国肯定觉得清零政策高明
Strong demand means China’s exporters have gained confidence to raise their prices by as much as 10%-20% from a year ago, partly to offset rising commodity costs, multiple Chinese factory owners told Bloomberg News recently.
 
Almost all of the increase in the value of exports in October may be due to rising prices rather than increasing volume, Guosen Securities Co. Ltd. economists wrote in a report Sunday.
 
While exports grew 23% trade in the first three quarters of the year, net exports contributed just over 20% of China’s GDP growth over the period, a fraction compared to government and household spending on goods and services, which accounted for 65% of the expansion.
 
 
large inequality and relied excessively on high investment rates and credit growth to hit robust growth targets
This growth model, they go on argue, "is far more state- and party-driven, critically meshing with and reinforcing the current autocratic and top-down centralised Xi administration
 
造势
 
 
文:中国隐瞒了多少冠毒死亡人数?
 
纽约、伦敦这么惨,武汉怎么能逃过?
 
 
【资料】
南非:很多死亡不算在政府死于冠毒的数字之内,不过南非自己的的医疗工作者则觉得大部分都跟冠毒有关,但经济学人觉得还不够
But the excess-mortality method has failed to provide useful or robust global figures for the simple reason that most countries, and in particular most poor countries, do not provide excess-mortality statistics in a timely fashion
 This work gives a 95% probability that the death toll to date is between 7.1m and 12.7m, with a central estimate of 10.2m.
All told we collected data on 121 indicators for more than 200 countries and territories. We next trained a machine-learning model which used a process called gradient boosting to find relationships between these indicators and data on excess deaths in places where they were available
The ranges for Africa and Asia are spectacularly wide. So they should be. The data from which to make strong predictions are not available, and in some places do not exist. Yet, wide as they are, they provide a more reliable picture than official tallies.
经济学人对自己的模型很有信心,比各国政府“准确多了”,“在亚洲非洲,估计的范围很广,说明模型的波动性,因为没数据,但没数据也比他们政府强”。
这个模型有120个参数,然后扔给“人工智能大数据‘学习’”,得出结论,非洲死亡率跟欧洲差不多,印度和英国差不多,
东南亚:官方和模型都很低
 
 
 
《经济学人》茶馆专栏:China will stick to a zero-covid policy, for now
 
这个想法是这样的:如果不知道共产党的动机是什么,但最终的结果是共产党保护了大家的生命,那么共产党是好还是坏?西方觉得共产党总是坏,是其性质决定的,结果是无关的,同样,西方的“民代”政府原则上总是“好的”,因为它们是“民意”,所以结果即使很坏,包括造成百万人丧命,也只是“瑕疵”,改了就好,就是不改,口头上表示难过一下就行。
 
 
似乎专制清零多么违反人性(新西兰澳大利亚也实行了清零)
 
 
满足的:
 
中国终于找到一个知音了
 
西方从不信,到谴责,到无奈,说你们自残还不知道
 
 
Max Fisher
So about that Atlantic cover story blaming global democratic decline on a handful of anti-American leaders
 
文:美国不是民主
英国的贵族民主
 
德克萨斯少数,乔治亚划分选取
民调
Klein interview,
美国的“保守派”通过宪法牢牢绑住了美国将能往哪个方向发展
 
 
James Q. Whitman’s “Hitler’s American Model: The United States and the Making of Nazi Race Law”
 
 
 
文:美国国际秩序
国际法,摔跤
 
aerial firepower is readily apparent in satellite imagery of eastern Syria
大家用到新疆的手段,这也用得上
No one doubts that the majority of those trapped at Baghouz at the end were civilians
Yet the alliance’s intelligence proved completely wrong. Thousands upon thousands of women and children—and hundreds of ISIS fighters—continued to pour out of the town during pauses in hostilities
即使是正义战,时间长了,大家都疲倦了,正义战也成了大屠杀,炸炸炸。夷为平地【死亡人数好像不多】,但肯定不分青红皂白
 
 
 
 
 
 
所谓的美国军工产业,其实是把美国的世界军事霸权融入到国民经济生活的一部分,美国第一是美国维护自己生活水平的必要条件,军事霸权是保证美国第一的关键,结果军工产业不是这个产业垄断、操纵了整个国民经济,而是它成了民众生活的一部分,深得人心,这是美国经济、外交军事化,万事诉诸军事解决,美国人从来不会对他人掉泪的原因
美国人从来不会觉得自己是个问题
 
 
文:“美国”作为上帝
Packer has maintained his belief in a liberalism capable of perfecting itself and in the United States’ exceptional role as the agent of this perfection
 
 “The so-called greatness of the Greatest Generation is a fiction,” she argues, “suffused with nostalgia and with a need to return to some finest hour.”
 
Samet dismisses Ambrose’s œuvre, including the nineteen-nineties best-sellers, “Band of Brothers” and “D-Day,” as “less historical analysis than comic-book thought bubble.” Obsessed with notions of masculinity and chivalry, Ambrose indulges in “a fantasy that American soldiers somehow preserved a boyish innocence amid the slaughter,” she writes. If anything, the boyish innocence may belong to Ambrose himself, who admits that he grew up venerating veterans of the Second World War, a youthful hero worship that, Samet notes, “tends to overwhelm the historian’s mandate.”
with its “explicitly messianic agenda” of showing us a cohort so packed with honor and honesty and self-sacrifice that it was, as the newsman writes, “birthmarked for greatness.”
 
文:美国会容忍一个什么样的中国?
 
在被问及美国是不是要“围堵”(遏制,containment)中国时,美国外长布林肯昨天在接受《纽时》采访时这么说
 
【资料】
【2】This is not about containing China. It’s not about holding China back...upholding the rules-based international order
【】So a couple of things here. First, from my perspective this is not about decoupling from China. Trade, investment in both directions and with other countries is important to all of us, and done the right way – with a level playing field, with playing by the rules – it’s a good thing. It’s a good thing for us. It’s a good thing for China. It’s a good thing for many other countries. So that’s not the issue...It’s not about decoupling. It’s not about stopping trade. It’s not about stopping investment. It is about making sure, as I said, that it’s done in a fair way: that we have a level playing field, that there is genuine reciprocity in the way China engages the world commercially and the way the rest of us engage China. And it is also about making sure that when it comes to particularly sensitive areas
 
 
不能提供技术用于迫害,强制劳工
【】美国能不能保证4年后不变卦?
【】So if we can start by showing results in making the right investments in ourselves可不就是说已经出问题了?
 
April 15, 2018
“My attitude toward China is, do well economically, but you cannot use your military to expand your power position in the region. Is that fair? No. Is there any justice to that? No. We get the Monroe Doctrine and you don’t. That’s just the way it is, I’m sorry. . . . We are containing China and the Chinese believe we are containing them.”
对美国来说,加入到美国主导的“国际秩序”不是任何一个世界成员的权力,而是恩赐,这种想法来自霸主的角度是非常好理解的,
因为霸主有特权,
China’s acceptance of rules for world trade drafted by the United States and its allies without Chinese participation
 
 
 
 
 
But on Thursday Jake Sullivan, the US national security adviser, signalled the US was working on a new “framework” for American economic engagement with other countries in the region, as part of the effort to compete with China’s economic might
美国的小圈子是很凶,很狠的,但是从经济的角度来看,美国一直没实质,这次有多少呢?
还是空头
 
ROBERT KAGAN: We have conflicting interests. At what point do those conflicting interests reach the point where there might be an armed conflict? I would say, I want China to flourish economically. Of course, we’re going to compete. We compete with Germany,
we compete with England, we compete with everybody economically because we want to have better products
and sell more than they do, but we also wish them to do well.
My attitude toward China is, do well economically, but you cannot use your military to expand your power
position in the region. Is that fair? No. Is there any justice to that? No. We get the Monroe Doctrine and you
don’t. That’s just the way it is, I’m sorry. But we cannot allow China to use its military power to establish
regional hegemony. There is nothing we can do about economic hegemony. That’s just a reality. I would say,
forget about that, cooperate, open the world to them, and wish them the best. The BRI, we’re not going to stop
it anyway.
14 FOREIGN POLICY at BROOKINGS
AVOIDING WAR: CONTAINMENT, COMPETITION, AND COOPERATION IN US-CHINA RELATIONS
But militarily, I believe that it has already been demonstrated by what everybody said, that if we are tough enough,
determined enough, and clear enough, they understand what the boundaries are. It cannot be a good outcome
for a Chinese leader to get into a war with the United States if only because, if it goes wrong, which it could, he’s
probably out of power. So, they’d have to be very confident either that we’re going to back down or that they can
win.
My final point is, we ought to make sure that we have the military capability so that they don’t believe that they’re
going to win, and the declaratory policies are clear enough so they don’t think we’re going to back down. If we can
do those two things, it’s going to be tense, but I think we can make it through this security dilemma and strategic
competition that we’re in
 
 
 
 
文:中国造船业对美国威胁有多大?
 
世界造船业是三分天下,中韩日
 
但中国并不总是“排第一”,韩国的造船业很强,政府支助很大,一直是名列前茅,但跟中企一样,韩国和中国的船企一直处于产能过剩的地步,连年亏损,勉强支撑着活下去,去年和今年因为窝家使得海航翻身,订单暴增,据说够3年的,但照样亏损
 
造船业为水上交通、海洋开发和国防建设等行业提供技术装备的现代综合性产业,也是劳动、资金、技术密集型产业,对机电、钢铁、化工、航运、海洋资源勘采等上、下游产业发展具有较强带动作用,对促进劳动力就业、发展出口贸易和保障海防安全意义重大
image
三大主流船型及特殊船型
干散货船,油船,集装箱
 
image
 
image
 
 
 
 
中国海军造船速度(Thomas Shugart)
今年3月估计:
11月预测:
 
有一个说法,中国的登陆船吨位远远不够攻台,但有人这么说:
中国类似的民用船只足以保证中国有足够的运兵能力
 
 
 
订单
 
市场份额
 
中韩日欧按船型市场份额
 
 
 
 
民主党和觉醒时代

一年前法轮功旗刊大纪元就坚定地指出川黑白左所推销的斯蒂尔卷宗「Steele Dossier」其实是冤案【1】,那时倒川阵营川黑轰轰烈烈已经快四年了,(第一次)弹劾刚刚过去,但其热情有增无减,各种声讨运动依旧此起彼伏,几天前,司法部终于把蒂尔卷宗主谋绳之以法,宣告了这场闹剧的终结,可是(美国)媒体和公知和美国整个体制,整个国安网,整个军工产业一样,对这一冤假错案认错、承担责任的不多,要么轻描淡写,要么不予理会,令有些(左)媒体脸红,到了实在不好意思了的地步【2】。闯王下台后,民主党失去了攻击的对象,美国左派和激进派转向觉醒(woke)思潮,以觉悟逼大家表态,从路线、立场逼大家站队,这也难怪拜登他老人家民意越来越低,从半年前的52%跌到39%【3】,还有几乎60%的人觉得拜登大政府太大了,70%觉得经济越来越糟,对经济的悲观到了2014年以来最差的地步。很少总统上任不到一年就这么惨的,拜登刚刚通过大撒币把钱送到大家手里,但大家照样不买账,因为工资都给通胀吃了【4】:

Figure 4 Adjusted for inflation, worker compensation is lower than it was before the pandemic

可以说民主党中期选举岌岌可危。

面对这一严峻的局面,民主党有什么对策呢?

有。加码觉醒。据说,民主党已经把眼光放在“后拜登时代”,把希望寄托在新一代身上,尤其以副总统贺锦丽和交通部长布蒂吉格为代表的新一代。稍微对美国政体有一点了解的人都知道,贺锦丽几乎是有史以来民望最低的副总统,但根正苗红,据党媒报道【5】,在气候峰会上贺锦丽和布蒂吉格风光远高于总统拜登,这点,民主党也清楚。

民主党对两位也不是完全拥抱,大家知道如果闯王重新出山(现在几乎是定局),拜登抵挡不住,两人肯定被血洗。

拜登给贺锦丽摊派了一些任务,没一样有成效的,贺锦丽说这不公平,她承担的,都是难题,而且拜登常常心不在焉,不知道自己的重点是什么,所以不能怪她,但党媒都不买账,据说她的整个班子都投降了【6】,这也有白宫的问题,没帮忙,也没把她当真,但贺锦丽本人总的就不是这个料,人缘也不行

She's perceived to be in such a weak position that top Democrats in and outside of Washington have begun to speculate privately, asking each other why

她的亲信觉得都是拜登圈子把她晾在一边,造成她什么样不成,但民主党内的对手已经悄悄串谋,一旦时机成熟,就把她赶下台

支持者则说本来副总统就是备胎,不是什么是角色,她已经行驶了她的使命了,不过,大家发现贺锦丽这个人一贯无能。据说她的班子通常都是无能之辈,不能帮她出力,而家里人经常在办公室左右一切,这估计是她笼络人手的原因,她本人还总是犹豫不决,不能成事。

尽管拜登也不把她排除在外,但拜登的班子觉得他那一套自己适用的办法在贺锦丽身上有没有用,大家也不尽力,如果贺锦丽将来有望入主白宫,这个与国会交往训练的机会就没了

Harris' staff has repeatedly failed her and left her exposed, and family members have often had an informal say within her office. Even some who have been asked for advice lament Harris' overly cautious tendencies and staff problems, which have been a feature of every office she's held, from San Francisco district attorney to US Senate.

贺锦丽对拜登班子也有意见,觉得没处出力,通过内幕透露出来,不知道是不是明智之举,但这也许是党内一种观点,因为拜登选副总统,就是给党指定将来的接班人,那么拜登自己就应当有责任保证她成为一个接班人,难道拜登要违背自己的初衷吗?贺锦丽帮里的还怀疑拜登班子里和党内有人要培养布蒂吉格来取代自己,这更反应民主党内部的派别斗争

That's different from when Harris has created problems for herself, White House aides believe, such as when she didn't push back on a student who accused Israel of "ethnic genocide." West Wing aides weren't going to clean up after that. 

可是小事一件又一件,慢慢积累就成小怨,新仇旧怨,贺锦丽自己班子里也人心动摇,

"It is unfortunate that after a productive trip to France in which we reaffirmed our relationship with America's oldest ally and demonstrated U.S. leadership on the world stage, and following passage of a historic, bipartisan infrastructure bill that will create jobs and strengthen our communities, some in the media are focused on gossip - not on the results that the President and the Vice President have delivered."

但贺锦丽本人、班子做事没头没尾,大家不能不有猜疑

最让贺锦丽丢脸的,是接手拜登难民潮那烂摊子,注定没戏,拜登还不给后盾,她干不下去,退下来消失了,大家就骂贺锦丽不行。结果这个政府不到一年内部就开始闹分歧。

跟踪拜登当局外交政策的人熟知,拜登的班子往往盯着一个目标,周围的事、物全视而不见,经常意外伤人,往往得不偿失,贺锦丽的待遇就是这么经历,与拜登班子人才济济的声誉完全相反,有自顾不暇的感觉。

如果单方面从政府班子运作所遇到的障碍,拜登的策略显得杂乱无章,缺乏战略性,没有长远的计划,好像除了排华反华政策畅通无阻之外,推行自己的政策很困难,民主党内部远比共和党不团结,因为共和党好说,什么都只要“反对:就行,而民主党要执政。但这没法掩盖民主党一个隐患,没什么领导,拜登就这个水平,贺锦丽有没有领导能力不说,群众基础很低,绝对不可能是个总统的料

共和党干脆躺平,不跟你玩:

 

【资料】

【1】美司法部公开密档 通俄门消息来源不可靠 | 通俄调查 | 斯蒂尔档案 | 美国司法部 | 大纪元

【】Anne Applebaum: Even if every single word in the Steele dossier was wrong, that would not change the fact that the Russians sought to manipulate the US election using hacked material and a disinformation campaign. Nor would it change the fact that the Trump family welcomed this intervention.Also, given the fact that the Russians sought to manipulate the US election campaign using hacked material and a disinformation campaign, it was not stupid for the FBI to take the Steele dossier seriously. Was a mistake to publish it, but that wasn't the FBI's fault

【2】Axios AM

【3】Post-ABC poll: Economic discontent rises, Biden approval declines - The Washington Post

【4】社会主义能不能救美国?

【5】Harris, Buttigieg in spotlight amid questions about Democrats' future - The Washington Post

【6】Exasperation and dysfunction: Inside Kamala Harris' frustrating start as vice president - CNNPolitics

【7】James Carville thinks the Democratic Party has a “wokeness” problem - Vox

【8】'Woke' discussion simmers for Democrats | TheHill

【】Biden and aides telling allies he is running in 2024 amid growing Democratic fears - The Washington Post

【】“Wokeness” Is Not the Democrats’ Problem

【9】How Republicans Have an Edge in the Emerging 2022 Congressional Maps - The New York Times

【10】Republican Consumer Sentiment Is Worse Today Than It Was During The Height Of The Financial Crisis

【】Biden’s Standing With Black Voters Hasn’t Bounced Back After Tough Summer - Morning Consult

Telegraph World News on Twitter: "????????Democrats desperately scrambling to find a potential successor to Joe Biden in 2024 are whispering about a potential nuclear option that could see Kamala Harris nominated to the Supreme Court" / Twitter

Columbia | SIPA on Twitter: "Kamala Harris and Pete Buttigieg could agree to run together in 2024 if Biden does not run again, giving the Democratic Party a very strong ticket that would seem like a natural continuation of Biden's first term, writes @LincolnMitchell. @CNNOpinion | https://t.co/VlBR3t2Ueg https://t.co/QMHz9rF2Sm" / Twitter

 

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兵团农工 回复 悄悄话 当谈论气候问题时,必须明白:
1,人类监测气象的历史不超过300年;
2,人类研究气候的论据依靠假设;
3,没有人能证明现在是不是间冰期;
4,气候是科学问题,不是选举总统,不是人多就是真理。
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