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默克尔这卖国贼

(2021-01-05 18:49:15) 下一个
这是默克尔为什么宁愿对中国绥靖 ？一文后见到时事中的反应所作的后记。
 
上文引用的主要线索来自纽约荣鼎资讯公司（Rhodium Group）欧洲分部的高管，他再次撰文表达自己的不满：
 
默克尔真给中国“送上大礼”，中国国际关系上重大胜利，别的不说，“你这不是让中国一眼看穿美欧之间的巨大隔阂”？【The EU’s strategy of calling China a partner, competitor, and systemic rival (all at once)】所以欧洲的“独立” （ strategic autonomy）是丧失原则。自由派和美国觉得欧洲不能记仇，淳朴（美国总统Donald Trump，人称特朗普或川普）的仇，难点。
The CAI does not change that, as numerous EU officials have emphasized in their briefings over the past weeks. Nor is “equidistance” between the United States and China the EU’s end game：这还不够吗？
 
这是一个更极端的观点，以往不论美国（淳朴当局）多么混蛋，给中国带来多少战略优势，今天西方再也不能为小便宜而丢失了大局，欧盟说美国在第一阶段谈判得到了那么多好处，欧盟只不过是从中国那儿拿到同样的条件，有什么大不了的？他说不行不行，美国是小节，你这是大节。
这些“大节”也不是不无道理，主要是香港，新疆，战狼外交和贸易恐吓手段。归根结底是价值问题，也是反的一方尽管意识到美国，尤其是当今美国政府很混蛋，但其他人不能因为美国混蛋自己也混蛋。
 
在这种观点里，中国问题就简单成了黑白，敌我问题，欧盟不仅不能给自己做主，也没做主的能力。
 
 
 
一个值得回顾的细节是中欧全面投资协定主要是中国让步，而且在12月中欧盟的态度是中国的方案没什么有价值的，希望不大，然而随后几天中方做出来出乎所有人预料的让步，欧盟意识到自己想要的中国基本都给了，实乃千载难逢，才决定拍板，黄平说“对于欧洲近年来面临的经济困境与挑战，中欧合作对于欧洲无疑是雪中送炭”。年底的期限是欧盟自己设的，如果欧盟不接受，中国会无止境等下去吗？
 
“有些人担心中国是不是让步太多了，我不这么认为。中欧投资协定谈判使得中国整个经济发展与外部世界融合度更高，更开放的同时也更规范，同时也有助于我们的高质量发展、提升我们的竞争力，使我们更具有活力。外部世界越不确定、竞争越激烈，我们恰恰应该要更加开放，而不是用封闭对待竞争。”
 
大家对默克尔意见大了：
Once again I would like to ask Americans to have some understanding for the European perspective on the Comprehensive Agrement on Investment (CAI) with China. I do so in stark language because a correction is in order to prevent worse. 
 
I myself find the political and moral arguments against it convincing, but that is no excuse to ignore European politics. Opinion pieces in the Anglophone press aren't comprehensive. The UK is no longer in the EU and those who work for US think-tanks and write in English are more likely to be Atlanticists than stem from the also influential Europeanist stream. Much of the pushback and moral outrage against this agreement coming from the US is counterproductive, because it does not engage with the European arguments for CAI. In his commentary, Dutch academic and former EU speech writer Luuk van Middelaar remarked about Jake Sullivan's intervention by tweet that "the new White House, too, sends marching orders via Twitter." 
 
There is the crux: Biden is bringing back many old hands who seem to act as if the US is already back at the head of a loyal Western alliance. That is not coming back. Europe does not want to be told to fall in line again as if the past four years did not occur. The past four years saw Trump lead a government containing several officials who prefer to see the European Union broken up, the very existential threat our leaders have been battling for more than a decade. The American ambassadors in The Hague, Berlin, and Brussels schemed with far-right fringe figures who condemn our governments. 
 
The US has made several deals with China and Europe feels pressured to catch up. But now it is told that deals with Beijing are actually useless, immoral and geopolitically a bad idea. Demands for loyalty to the US by Biden nominees who have not even had their confirmation hearing yet, let alone been sworn in, are extremely grating after four years of European leaders being treated like dirt by the White House. 
 
If the new US administration wants to restore the alliance, it needs to start with humility. The argument that things have changed since the start of the Sino-US trade war is fair. Merkel's focus on German economic interests ignore genocide in Xinjiang, oppression in Hong Kong, threats against Taiwan, increasingly clear contours of the entitled nationalist power China and the dangers of economic entanglement. But we are not there yet. The CAI has not even been signed yet. The chance that the European Parliament will vote against ratification is real. 
 
But to understand why we got here in the first place one first needs to make an attempt to understand Europe's reasons for pursuing CAI, rather than once again stereotype it as a continent of unprincipled sell-outs. Did the US selflessly consider Europe's interests with its Phase 1 deal as it was led by a president praising Xi Jinping's concentration camps? This whole campaign that EU should say no because of American upset is doomed to fail. The EU exists to defend its own interests, not those of the US. Besides reasons of triggered European chauvinism, Brussels cannot give the impression that DC can veto its foreign agreements. Moreover, the push for strategic autonomy will only seem more logical after the Capitol storming. 
 
Substantive arguments will work better for those seeking to derail it. Focus on 
unreliability of Chinese promises, the bad politics of the deal, German dominance, and so on. Do not think insulting Europeans as disloyal naifs will work. 
 
默克尔和马克隆出席了仪式，法国明年出任欧盟主席，习近平指望马克隆顶过去
 
美国对欧洲一巴掌过去，欧洲就会捂着脸，哭哭啼啼认错吗？人权原来并不是中欧全面投资协定的内容，现在以此为标准来做选取的准则，理智吗？
印度首先不服
中国信得过吗？
 
美国的对华政策也很难，主要是既不能完全孤立中国，也不可以完全孤立中国，还得要合作，怎么办呢？
 
今天中国大肆逮捕香港“民运”，会不会导致中欧翻船？
 
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nikecap53 2021-01-07 09:00:12 回复 悄悄话 欧盟迟早会发现中国在胡弄他们。
兵团农工 2021-01-06 16:54:05 回复 悄悄话 赞评论！
北美_原乡人 2021-01-06 08:05:54 回复 悄悄话 欧洲一直就人权这个问题在谈判中故意恶心中国，画风一般是这样的：
欧洲：你们那个香港问题，很不人权嘛......
中国：我们决定全面开放汽车制造业，以后你们可以百分百持股。
欧洲：行！那你们那个新疆问题，我们还要派人调查观察一下.......
中国：医疗服务业也可以开放，你们可以到中国办私人医院。
欧洲：成交！不过西藏那边宗教问题......
中国：金融业也全面开放，你们的银行和保险公司可以进来了。
欧洲：其实我们仔细分析过了，你们人权状况一直挺不错，至少比沙特要好，先做生意吧，这些事后面再说。
嗯，都是生意，不寒碜。
为了人权！为了自由！干他娘的！
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