笨狼发牢骚
发发牢骚，解解闷，消消愁
正文
傅高义去世
傅高义关于日本的研究在日本享有盛名，他也被认为是一名对中国颇有研究的学者。根据资料，傅高义（Ezra Vogel ），1930年出生。他是哈佛大学教授，曾任哈佛大学东亚研究中心主任、费正清中国研究中心主任等职。1993-1995年，他曾在美国国家情报委员会担任负责东亚事务的情报官。傅高义精通中文和日语，被认为是美国唯一一位对中日两国事务都精通的学者。
傅高义是倡导美中进行对话为数不多的主要声音之一，敌对没有什么好处
中国美国都缺乏对对方有充分的认识，误解甚多，结极可能是误判，导致冲突
中国出口业旺盛，月薪过万仍找不到工人
中国人对西方态度日益变冷，美国首当其冲
中欧全面投资协定基本成定局
川普当局不仅仅促成美国西方对中国的敌视，也使得中国精英权贵达成对美国肆意围堵扼杀中国的共识，中国国内的团结程度就会高于西方世界的团结程度
以前中国半导体行业不能起飞的原因之一是政府民间大企业都三心二意，因为与西方企业一样，第一是利润，保证产品质量就不能用国产，但美国过去几年的行为已经把中国全社会推到一个别无退路的地步，结果极其可能是中国半导体产业的翻身
New U.S. Restrictions Will Help Make China Great Again（U.S. Sanctions Against China Will Fuel Xi Jinping's Tech Ambitions - Bloomberg）
武汉的疯狂
《路透社》One night in Wuhan: COVID-19's original epicentre re-learns how to party | The Wider Image | Reuters
中国的集体与西方的个人
中国经济南北分离
【需求侧改革】
美国政治
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《路透社》One night in Wuhan: COVID-19's original epicentre re-learns how to party | The Wider Image | Reuters
今年中青年死亡人数比历史平均高25%
中国政府最近对资本的控制，只是一轮金融风控，还是政府对资本的全面管制的开端？
Despite the shipping disruptions, some companies that have kept their production in China throughout Mr. Trump’s trade wars are now feeling vindicated.
Mr. Foreman said he considered moving some operations to Vietnam or India, like many toymakers did amid the trade wars last year, but “staying in China ended up to be the best move.”
“China still has the best production supply chain of anybody in the world, and as it turned out, they were able to tackle the pandemic faster and more efficiently than anybody else,” he said. “China certainly has tested the boundaries and proven that they can weather the storm, as great as a storm as we’ve seen in a hundred years.”
China still has a long way to catch up with the case count of US sanctions
After pulling in $230 billion from foreign investors to its fixed-income market in the past five years, China will see about $770 billion more in the next five, Goldman analysts including Kenneth Ho estimated in October
The U.S. is in danger of losing its dominant leadership position in global financial services（ Henry M. Paulson）
（美国外交界元老沃尔特（Stephen M. Walt），哈佛教授）《外交政策》Biden Sees the A-Team. I See the Blob
（引用）“The Blob was Back and Ready for War.”
Both Biden and his closest advisors remain committed to an image of U.S. global leadership, that was never as successful as they believe and is badly outdated today. It is a vision that assumes the United States can still exert the same level of global influence it did when it constituted upwards of 30 percent of the world economy and it enjoyed a well-deserved reputation for administrative competence and diplomatic prowess. Although Biden et al may recognize that the unipolar era is over and that the United States cannot solve every global problem on its own, their own statements suggest that they would still like to try
拜登：“Why America Must Lead Again”，“his foreign policy “will place the United States back at the head of the table.” Not just at the table, mind you, but at the head.”“We are back”
Sullivan sought to reclaim the idea of American exceptionalism, “A nation’s foreign policy is the total of imperfect decisions made by imperfect people facing imperfect choices with imperfect information.” But then we are perfect.
Meanwhile, back on planet Earth, the claim that America doesn’t muscle small countries into compliance with its will would be greeted by laughter in small countries near and far. And even when U.S. muscle is about economic leverage and not American or proxy military forces, the amount of suffering can be considerable
中国对台湾的骚扰策略
一带一路崩溃？
去年年底，美国高官预测“一带一路”肯定会，很快会崩溃：
今天，预言成真？
That Boston University study that was quoted by the @ft last week can only be described as a joke. I just spent one hour looking at annual reports and the numbers don’t add up. They seem completely made up
— Bruno Ma??es (@MacaesBruno) December 13, 2020
By 2019, total federal R&D spend constituted just 2.8 per cent of all federal spending and just 0.6 per cent of GDP
战狼外交的民间根基：China’s Combative Nationalists See a World Turning Their Way - The New York Times (nytimes.com)
澳大利亚，中澳贸易战，铁矿石和焦煤
澳大利亚政治
“丢脸”是用于贬低中国人格的贬义词
魏玲灵的麻烦
【印度】
印度的感觉：Nor do they explain the timing of Chinese actions, or why China is simultaneously asserting herself across the board in Asia — in the Senkakus, on Taiwan, in Hong Kong, in the South China Sea, with Australia and so on, and her new “wolf warrior” diplomacy
中国今年的策略就是要教训印度。真的吗？
【需求侧改革】
【反垄断，阿里和马云】
2021.01.07
【中国经济】
理解了江湖，你就能理解普洱茶鱼龙混杂的现状（南方科技大学社会科学中心副教授张静红）
普世价值与普世价值的现实完全是两码事：
盗版《金融时报》？
中国政府和中国人给自己的辩护是咱不坏， 胖皮袄（美国外长蓬佩奥，Mike Pompeo）才坏【3】，这种说法的代表作之一《中国日报》驻欧盟办公室主任陈卫华与其说是反应中国国内一种偶广泛群众基础的反美思潮和气氛，不如说中国在单枪匹马胖皮袄的攻击性如丧家之犬，只能以恶对恶，你凶我更凶，你坏我更坏，你狠不如我狠。
《中国日报（英文）》If China's diplomats are 'wolf warriors', what is Pompeo? - Opinion - Chinadaily.com.cn（作者是《中国日报》驻欧盟办公室主任陈卫华，对美国一个州参议员骂中国5000年的偷强史，陈卫华会说的只是"她是我见过的最种族主义、最无知的美国参议员。真是个终身婊子。"）
拜登的民主阵营
NEW: For $1M, corporations can be listed as a "chair" of JOE BIDEN's inauguration ($500k for individuals).
— Kenneth P. Vogel (@kenvogel) December 16, 2020
Donor packages include "virtual signed photos" with Biden, @KamalaHarris & their spouses, plus virtual briefings with inaugural & campaign leaders. https://t.co/phbxMowD6u
韬光养晦时刻
Although China does not want to usurp the United States’ position as the leader of a global order, its actual aim is nearly as consequential. In the Indo-Pacific region, China wants complete dominance; it wants to force the United States out and become the region’s unchallenged political, economic, and military hegemon. And globally, even though it is happy to leave the United States in the driver’s seat, it wants to be powerful enough to counter Washington when needed
rather than fundamentally overturn the order in Asia and compete with U.S. influence globally：什么秩序？
make no mistake: the ultimate goal is to push the United States out of the Indo-Pacific and rival it on the global stage
To remain dominant, Washington will have to change course：美国就是要称霸
It will have to deepen its involvement in the liberal international order.
It will have to double down on its commitment to American values：是什么？
In the political realm, China has undertaken a combination of covert actions and public diplomacy to co-opt and neutralize foreign opposition
Beijing has been especially innovative in its use of economic power：（一带一路）绝对是任何都是负面，都质问中国是不是有动机，其实也不用问，因为中国就是坏蛋
What China does demand from recipients, however, is allegiance on a number of issues, including the nonrecognition of Taiwan：为什么这是个问题？
the Belt and Road Initiative “is intended to enable China to better use its growing economic clout to achieve its ultimate political aims without provoking a countervailing response or a military conflict.”为什么这是件坏事？
如果我这个主意大家觉得好，我也能给大家带来好处，还和和气气，自然受到大家爱戴，这难道就是别有用心要做什么鬼事，如抢走了美国的霸主位置？你也来好了。The key is that Beijing has left the military dimensions of this project ambiguous, 只有自己有鬼才会证明想：generating uncertainty within Washington about its true intentions
China could still use the economic and political influence generated by the project to limit the reach of American power
作者是空军出身的研究员，比较直接。整篇的立足点是大国争霸，也就是说大国一定争霸，必须争霸，恰似江湖。
Beijing has created uncertainty about its ultimate goals by supporting the order in some areas and undermining it in others.
Under Xi, China is unabashedly undermining the U.S. alliance system in Asia. It has encouraged the Philippines to distance itself from the United States, it has supported South Korea’s efforts to take a softer line toward North Korea, and it has backed Japan’s stance against American protectionism：有些有道理有意见，有些胡来
It is building offensive military systems capable of controlling the sea and airspace within the so-called first island chain and of projecting power past the second. It is blatantly militarizing the South China Sea, no longer relying on fishing vessels or domestic law enforcement agencies to exercise its conception of sovereignty
大部分都是错的，泛太协定不合符美国民意，大家为什么不懂？
But China has an Achilles’ heel: its leaders have failed to articulate a vision of global dominance that is beneficial for any country but China：发展才是硬道理
China Thinks America Is Losing（How to Avoid a War Between America and China (foreignaffairs.com)）
中国政府判断美国衰落已势不可挡，所以美国旨在遏制中国崛起，经川普政府过去四年的所为已经验证，所以中国政府所行必须围绕在摆脱美国的遏制。美国有能力影响中国政府的行为，但必须向中国政府证明美国并没有衰退，这是避免中国风误判，引发战争的必要手段。作者把中国的这种看法的起源归咎于马列主义历史决定论，但这是简单化了，如果这是历史决定论，那这些历史阶段可能几百年，不可能影响中国几个五年计划。
不过川普政府内外的极端分子可能真的把中国政府糊弄了，有点弄假成真的意思，另一方面，从今天两党达成共识的现状来看，中国政府的谨慎也不是弓杯蛇影，甚至无中生有，问题是除了那么激烈地反击，战狼似的，还有其他更有效的手段吗？真如有人所言，是个天赐良机吗？不太可能，中国不可能在几年之内夺取美国的地位，而且美国对中国的禁运是实实在在的，中国不可能不把它当成头一等国家大事，美国已经变成不仅仅不可靠，还是敌人，中国这边能做什么？
China’s behavior in these areas is often at odds with U.S. interests and a rules-based order, with Beijing flouting rules it dislikes and undermining liberal norms and values：美国精英是不会放弃美国优越论。淳朴上台，美国精英就像没看见一样。白等上台就是体制完好吗？51.3%比46.9%，4.4%胜出，那47%的人呢？他们多少还是不认输？
How should U.S. strategy toward China grapple with these changes? Given the dismal track record of the past several years, some may be tempted to try to undo these shifts by reassuring Beijing that the United States does not in fact intend to keep China down：承认美国政府是造成中国这一认识的主要因素，不过“To be sure, Xi would like to de-escalate the trade and technology conflicts with the United States to buy time”，不会觉得中国死好东西，“China’s rulers have built their strategy on a profound underestimation of the United States”。自强是警告中国的最佳途径，“The United States must also band together with allies and partners in Asia and Europe to push back”。“disentangling themselves entirely from supply chains that create unacceptable vulnerabilities to China”，这跟中国有什么区别？“such steps could also eventually create space for China’s leaders to decide that addressing these urgent shared problems is more important than believing their own paranoid visions of the United States”，好像中国无事生非似的。
首先选择，峰会首先要选择，一选，美国自己成了老大，选谁，就成了内讧的原因，难道为了遏制中国是任何愿意与中国为敌的国家？归根结底是“民主”表面光鲜，内容千差万别，而且不少美国“盟友”专制得很
To convene a summit for democracy is to take a manifestly ideological approach to the global agenda
Nor does common ideology make for fully shared interests with other democracies. It never has: not for the Iraq war, not for the Vietnam War...
同时掩盖了美国自己的内部矛盾
seat at the head of the democracies’ table has to be earned back
Americans may one day look back on China the way they now view the Soviet Union—as a dangerous rival whose evident strengths concealed stagnation and vulnerability：绝对的自信，自傲
FDD Report
Biden Can Forget About Making IPhones in the U.S.（U.S. Supply Chains Offer Biden a Way to Make Allies, Not Just Bring Jobs Home - Bloomberg）
这正是中国做的。
Overall, EU GDP is forecast to contract by 7.4% this year, before growing 4.1% in 2021 and 3.0% in 2022. For the euro area: -7.8% in 2020, 4.2% in 2021, 3.0% in 2022.
United States (USA) GDP
西方的小粉红一代
评论
cn_abcd
2020-12-10 09:30:11
回复
悄悄话
中国家庭负债率太高了，都是房地产
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