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最可恨,最不可信的美股牛市?

(2016-04-12 14:19:57) 下一个

美国人常说“美国最可恨的牛市",不但是“最可恨,最不可信”,而且是“有史以来”,比如见文学城此文“今天是美国最可恨的牛市七周年“,还有
《新浪》有史以来最不可信的美股牛市?
《moneydj》七年之癢:美股史上最不受投資者待見的牛市
7年1

7年4

都说是“联储印钱买来的牛市”。

是不是联储印钱买来的牛市,说来话长,联储关系重大,那是逃脱不了的。说是“最可恨,最不可信“,那是因为大家一直相信无数股民因为给2007-2008美国金融大危机导致的全球经济大危机吓着了,从来没有真心进入股市,从而失去了这一”有史以来“最大的”“发财致“的顺风车。

看看股市,你要是咬咬牙,一口气下定决心跟党走,你的资产几乎翻了两番,现在天天吃龙虾都游戏了。从(美国)全国来看,总财富大幅度增加,超越了危机以前的水平。相信党相信政府。

不过事实真的如此吗?

下文以简单的数据说非也,因为大家嘴里说不信、恨,但真正的资产都押在股市上了。

美国的财富大多在金融资产上,就是说股票,而且信心十足。熊市来了,大家一锅端。

【短评】
如果大家的股票都翻了两番,美国人不是都成了富翁了吗?那大家为啥还这么多怨言?
那是因为美国穷人基本上没有股票,越富,股票越多,《华尔街日报》的此图是例子之一:


盖勒普的调查
Americans Invested in Stock Market -- Selected Trend
由此你可见为什么美国贫富分化如此严重,无法解决。

The Felder Report
It’s Time To Put An End To The “Most Hated Bull Market” Meme

Jesse FelderMedia, Meme, Sentiment, Social Media, Stock Market, Wall Street

We’ve been hearing for years now how this is supposedly, “the most hated bull market in Wall Street history.” In fact, it’s become such a popular meme that even USA Today picked it up this week and ran with it. The trouble is there is absolutely no evidence at all to support this idea.

In fact, all the sentiment studies I look at suggest this has been one of the most beloved stock markets in Wall Street history. The Investors’ Intelligence survey is just coming off its longest sustained period of extreme bullishness ever recorded. Screen Shot 2016-04-07 at 9.26.55 AMChart via Yardeni.com

Surveys are fine but I prefer to look at what investors are actually doing with their money. Confirming the extreme bullishness in the II survey is mutual fund cash levels, which recently hit an all-time low as a percent of total assets.

Mutual_Fund_Cash_LevelChart via SentimenTrader.com

Another record-breaking extreme in bullishness witnessed recently can be seen in the positioning of traders in the Rydex family of mutual funds.

Rydex

Beyond this small group of mutual funds, we can also look at total household assets as reported by the Fed. There has never been a time in history when investors have allocated as much money to stocks relative to cash as they have today.

Screen Shot 2016-04-07 at 9.29.52 AM

Furthermore, investors aren’t just allocating a massive amount of money to stocks, they are borrowing money from their brokers to buy even more, and doing so in record amounts.

Screen Shot 2016-04-07 at 9.37.42 AM

Even when you adjust margin debt for the growth in the overall economy, it recently hit an all-time record high. (And, btw, this doesn’t bode well for the, “bull market.”)

Screen Shot 2016-04-07 at 9.37.53 AM

It may be hard to believe but the fact is every one of these measures shows more euphoria among investors than any other time in at least a generation or two, including the dotcom bubble. So if you could stop calling this, “the most hated bull market in history,” that’d be great.

 

【附录:研究资料、报告】
Household Wealth in China Yu Xie and Yongai Jin
The Great Housing Boom of China Kaiji Chen and Yi Wen
瑞信:Global Wealth in 2015: Underlying Trends Remain Positive

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