美国否决国际货币基金改革

大家对中国建立亚投行的原因、目标和对世界金融次序的影响，说多了，不掺乎什么了。直接的原因之一，可以说是导火索，在【1】解释了，是因为美国百般阻挠国际货币基金组织改革，不让中国和发展中国家在国际货币基金组织中有足够的代表，坚持美国、欧洲为主导（欧洲实际上已经意识到其结构的不合理性，愿意让步）。奥巴马在2010年也已经接受、答应改革了，后来国会阻挠是真，但奥巴马暗暗觉得不能允许中国有任何空间才是主要原因。

奥巴马自己食言。

结果亚投行势不可挡，不只是中国全胜，实际上全世界（包括欧洲、澳大利亚）都借中国出了口恶气。都觉得美国栽了个大跟头，就是美国自己不认，现在改口说美国其实“支持”。

不久前，值安倍访美，最可笑的，最有讽刺的，也是对中国最大侮辱的，是奥巴马说亚投行“我们是开玩笑了”（你误解了，没这意思）【2】。不过这叫自己给自己面子，找台阶下，世上有多少人相信呢？



人民币尽管没有取代美元的可能性，但是用于贸易结算的越来越多，尤其是中国贸易，人民币国际化，是李克强今年的主要目标，将为世界贸易以人民币结算打下基础。为此，李克强坚持不让人民币贬值【7】，同时周小川紧锣密鼓在国际货币基金组织做两件事儿：一是改革，改变国际货币基金组织目前的投票权结构，而是让人民币成为国际货币基金组织特别提款权的一部分（【3】【4】【5】【6】）。

国际货币基金组织总裁（前法国财长）拉加德也再三表示支持。中国此行，不仅仅是为自己争取应有的权力，也是代表发展中国家争取它们应有的权力。多年来，发展中国家对国际货币基金组织的结构，可以说是恨透了，除希腊乌克兰之类的，跟国际货币基金组织打交道的，当今还真没几个。

最近，周小川重复表示中国是不耐烦了【8】

"[We] are upset and deeply disappointed by the current progress in regard to the reform of the shareholding system in the IMF," China News Service quoted Zhou as saying on Sunday.

China and other major emerging economies have long been dissatisfied with the delay in the IMF reform to give them a greater say. They have also been hamstrung by their lack of influence in the institution. Although the BRICS leading emerging market economies account for more than one-fifth of the global economy, together they wield about 11 per cent of the votes at the IMF.

几周前世行国际货币基金组织年会，改革的话题再次成为主题，大家都盯着美国。

奥巴马大概觉得近来成就不少，泛太协议国内授权法基本通过，和日本谈判有突破性进展（其它小国都是砧板鱼肉），奥安二人都急于让泛太协议成为抵抗中国的柱石，极力压迫国内各派。一高兴，暗示国防部长放风说要派飞机军舰到南海跟中国撞一把，吓唬吓唬，试探一下。

这一来，奥巴马劲头来了，底气足了，周末放出风声，我们不干，国际货币基金组织改革，作废【9】(The Obama administration signaled it won’t jeopardize the U.S. power to veto IMF decisions to achieve its goal of giving China and other emerging markets more clout at the lender)。

看你中国怎么着？

美国从亚投行学到了什么？

老子老大地位，牢不可破，无人能撼，老子不怕得罪全世界，你们服也行，不服也行，随你。

美国不仅仅是顶住了中国，还得罪了所有发展中国家。记得以前听说过，农民解放，就是有一天农民把地主给解雇了。用不着把地主杀了宰了，就是不跟你玩儿了。



【1】中国为什么建亚投行？
【2】Obama on the Beijing-Led AIIB: All Just a Misunderstanding
【3】人民币与特别提款权
【4】人民币与特别提款权：为什么，缺什么？
【5】国际货币基金宣布人民币价值公平
【6】亚投行、亚发行、金砖银行、世行
【7】4月贸易看中国经济
【8】《南华早报》China frustrated by delayed reforms to increase its say at IMF
【9】彭博Obama Seeks to Keep IMF Veto as China Influence Is Expanded



《南华早报》2015.04.20
China frustrated by delayed reforms to increase its say at IMF


Zhou Xiaochuan says China is deeply disappointed by progress on reform of the IMF's shareholding system

Central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan said China was "more than frustrated" with the long delay in a 2010 reform package to increase China's say at the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

"[We] are upset and deeply disappointed by the current progress in regard to the reform of the shareholding system in the IMF," China News Service quoted Zhou as saying on Sunday.

Zhou made the remarks on the sidelines of the World Bank-IMF spring meetings and a gathering of G20 finance ministers and central bank chiefs at the IMF's headquarters last week.

Zhou was referring to the IMF's 2010 reform package, which calls for a 6 per cent shift in voting rights from developed economies to emerging ones.

Washington has a de facto veto and the reform has been stalled for five years by the US Congress. Under the present system, the changes require more than 85 per cent of the total voting rights of the IMF's members to pass; the US has 16.42 per cent of those rights.

China and other major emerging economies have long been dissatisfied with the delay in the IMF reform to give them a greater say. They have also been hamstrung by their lack of influence in the institution. Although the BRICS leading emerging market economies account for more than one-fifth of the global economy, together they wield about 11 per cent of the votes at the IMF.

Among the BRICS countries - Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa - China has been particularly shortchanged, as its voting share has failed to keep pace with its rapid economic development. China accounts for 15.4 per cent of global GDP but has only 3.8 per cent of the IMF vote.

The IMF members are discussing an interim solution that does not need the US congressional approval.

Zhou said an alternative to the original reform programme could be introduced as an interim solution. "While we are pushing for fully implementing the 2010 quota reform, we should actively consider all possible options as an interim solution," he said.

Zhou also called for faster progress on broader IMF reforms, including one on governance. "[We] should make progress in many areas, including one on the reform of the governance structure, in addition to our effort to push ahead with reform in the shareholding quota system," he said.

The IMF is also considering whether to include the yuan in the basket of the Special Drawing Rights (SDRs). In a meeting with US Treasury Secretary Jack Lew in Beijing last month, Premier Li Keqiang urged Washington to support the change.

The SDRs are international foreign exchange reserve assets. SDRs represent a claim to foreign currencies for which it may be exchanged in times of need. The nominal value of an SDR is derived from a basket of currencies, mainly the US dollar, with a fixed amount of Japanese yen, British pounds and euros.

The SDR basket is based on two criteria: the size of the country's exports and whether its currency is freely convertible. In the IMF's last review in 2010, the yuan met only the first condition.

This article appeared in the South China Morning Post print edition as Beijing frustrated by lack of progress in IMF reform