人民币与特别提款权

特别提款权(Special Drawing Rights，简称SDR)，据国际货币基金组织（International Monetary Fund，IMF）说：

The SDR is an international reserve asset, created by the IMF in 1969 to supplement its member countries’ official reserves. Its value is based on a basket of four key international currencies, and SDRs can be exchanged for freely usable currencies. As of March 17, 2015, 204 billion SDRs were created and allocated to members (equivalent to about $280 billion).

人民币目前还不是特别提款权的成分。中国一直打算将人民币纳入特别提款权，近来中国争取将人民币纳入特别提款权的愿望不断增加，相应的准备工作也密锣紧鼓：

2015.03.22周小川：今年将推三方面改革 努力实现资本项目可兑换
2015.03.23周小川：正准备修改外汇管理办法
2015.03.23周小川：为加入SDR做准备 中国今年努力实现 人民币资本项目可兑换


央行行长周小川

2015.03.23【中国发展高层论坛】周小川与拉加德大谈人民币和SDR

现年67岁的周小川说：“我觉得这个题目我个人还需要进一步研究领会才能说得好，今天恰好有拉加德女士参加这场讨论，而且国际货币基金又在今年对特别提款权(SDR)的篮子进行评估，因此我就借这个机会先说一下这个题目。”
周小川已经为推动人名币加入SDR努力了五年有余。加入SDR将为人民币成为储备货币奠定基础，有助于中国挑战美元在全球贸易与金融中的主导地位。中国成为世界第二大经济体，为周小川增添了砝码。
IMF每五年对SDR货币篮子进行一次评估。2010年，因认为人民币不能“自由使用”，IMF决定不将人民币纳入SDR。周小川借周日论坛的机会，向拉加德讲述了人民币的自由化进程。
周小川列举了沪港通与扩大股市、债市外资准入的例子，还表示中国居民个人海外投资及其他一些规定将于今年放宽，以提高人民币资本项下可兑换程度。
在周小川做完简短介绍后，拉加德称人民币“显然属于”SDR货币篮子，IMF将与中国一道为此努力。

2015.03.31拉加德煮茶论中美:人民币早晚加入SDR


国际货币基金组织总裁（前法国财长）拉加德

但要纳入，需要国际货币基金组织投票通过，美国多方阻挠，因为美国有否决权，美国不点头，没法子。不过霸主也得看众多喽啰的反应，如果怨恨多了，霸主也得让让步。

拉加德属于欧洲温和派，平衡各方厉害，也乐于借中国打压美国，增加欧洲的声音，故持支持态度。前几天见到华尔街日报的一文（见下），提到周小川说“We plan to make an all-out effort to achieve this，”在中文媒体里没见到这样的字眼。本周末世行、国际货币基金组织在华府（美国首都华盛顿）举行年会，这估计是话题之一，南华早报（其消息一向灵通）昨天说（见下），中国会力促特别提款权纳取人民币。

对不少人来说，这是中美既亚投行后的另一个较量，属于中国与美国竞争的招数之一，大家都会暗地出招，建天桥·几天前，美财长访华，大家忙着毕什么的闹剧，未必留意，不过美国当时

轻轻一句话，国际货币基金组织份额和治理权结构改革方案不了了之

所以这次美国难以让步。这一来，双方真较上劲了，大家都难下台。我判断是中国胜算大，美国又得难堪一次。



2015.04.06
华尔街日报博文：China Sets Its Sights on Joining the IMF’s Special Currency Club

Groucho Marx once famously said he didn’t want to belong to any club that would accept him as a member. China clearly holds a different view.

For China’s policy makers, if there’s a club, they probably don’t want to pass up the chance to join it – from the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Forum and the Caribbean Development Bank to the Group of 77 and the Zangger Committee. When that’s just not enough, Beijing looks to start its own clubs – such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, or more recently, the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank.



Beijing now has its eyes on yet another elite grouping – the IMF’s Special Drawing Rights – an exclusive collection of global currencies that form a special reserve asset. Every five years the International Monetary Fund is supposed to review the composition of the basket, which is currently comprised of the dollar, the euro, the yen and the pound sterling.

Chinese officials have been pressing their case that the yuan ought to be part of this arrangement. They see inclusion in the SDR as something that would expand the yuan’s role as a currency for international trade and investment. Beijing hopes that ultimately the yuan will be a reserve currency that rivals the dollar, and it has become more open about stating its ambitions of late.

The yuan has already taken on an expanded role in global trade. It ranked seventh as a currency for world payments in February, according to the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication, or Swift. China is already the world’s largest trading nation as measured by the sum of its exports and imports. But one obstacle hampering its goals for the currency is that the yuan is not entirely convertible.

China is working to address that issue. It has vowed to step up its efforts to remove most of the curbs on converting the currency under the capital account – which covers investments.

“People are paying a lot of attention to the issue of whether the yuan can be included in the IMF’s Special Drawing Rights,” said Zhou Xiaochuan, governor of the People’s Bank of China, speaking to a recent gathering of politicians and business executives.  He went on to say that China had already set a target of reaching that goal this year, adding: “We plan to make an all-out effort to achieve this.”

That line has been echoed by other Chinese officials.

Wang Yungui, a senior official of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, said recently that China is “actively seeking inclusion” in the IMF’s Special Drawing Rights.

He said that authorities will keep opening up the country’s capital account and easing restrictions on cross-border investments, though they will stay vigilant against any systemic risks and guard against significant capital outflows.

“I am confident the yuan will be included in the Special Drawing Rights,” he said, without specifying when he thinks such a goal might be achieved.

The IMF doesn’t say that currencies in the SDR have to be convertible, but it comes close, stating they need to be “freely usable.”

Richard Cooper, professor of international economics at Harvard University, said he doesn’t believe the yuan measures up on that score.

“No, in my view the rmb (yuan) is not now freely usable,” he said, noting that there are curbs on some outbound as well as inbound investments.

Mr. Cooper, former U.S. under-secretary of state for economic affairs said, however, that the IMF could change its requirements — or perhaps the yuan could meet the standard at some point in the future. But he added that inclusion in the SDR was not essential for the internationalization of the currency, citing the Swiss franc as an example of a smaller reserve currency that is not in the club.

Cornell University professor of trade policy Eswar Prasad argues that the case against the yuan’s admission to the SDR is less cut and dried.

“The notion of a freely usable currency seems to be distinct from that of a fully convertible currency. There is no accepted official definition, but the idea seems to be that the currency has to be widely used in international financial markets, a criterion the yuan arguably meets,” he said.

Inclusion in the SDR would have “huge symbolism in recognizing and pushing forward the currency’s rising role in global finance,”  Mr. Prasad said.  “The IMF’s imprimatur would help the yuan gain wider acceptance, although the immediate effects are likely to be limited as the currency’s use would remain constrained by its lack of free convertibility and the limited financial market development in China.”

Of course, getting into the SDR isn’t an all-consuming issue for the average comrade-on-the-street. And even among economists there are those who are less than convinced about the need for inclusion.

Asked recently for his response to the campaign to join, Li Yang, vice president of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, put it succinctly: “I don’t think it’s that important.”


2015.04.14
南华早报China seeks role for yuan in AIIB to extend currency’s global reach
Effort part of ongoing drive to extend the yuan’s international reach and challenge the greenback’s global dominance in finance

Beijing will push for the yuan to be included in a basket of currencies used to denominate and settle loans from the Chinese-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), according to think tank sources.

Beijing will also encourage the AIIB and the Silk Road Fund to set up special currency funds and issue yuan-denominated loans through both institutions, the sources said.
If the US dollar is used, it weakens China’s bid for the yuan to be a global currency
HAO HONG, BOCOM INTERNATIONAL

The efforts are part of a drive to internationalise the Chinese currency and come as the International Monetary Fund prepares to discuss the possible inclusion of the yuan as its fifth reserve currency and as part of the basket that forms the IMF's Special Drawing Rights.

The sources' claims appeared to be confirmed by a state media report, which said that a basket of currencies called the "AIIB currency" would most likely be adopted as the bank's currency of settlement.

In an article headlined "The five key questions facing the AIIB", the state-run Outlook magazine said yesterday that the biggest unanswered question about the bank was what currency - or currencies - would be used for settlement. The article said there were three options: the yuan, the US dollar or an AIIB currency basket.

It said that of the three the US dollar would be the most cost-efficient and convenient, and the yuan the most expensive and least convenient.

A currency basket was the most attractive option, it said, because it would be more resilient to market shocks.

Hao Hong, chief economist and managing director of research at Bocom International, said the AIIB's grand vision for infrastructure investment came with challenges but China should do its best to establish the yuan as a currency for settlement and denomination.

"If the US dollar is used instead, it weakens China's bid for the yuan to become a truly global currency and to challenge the hegemony of the US dollar," Hong said.

Yifan Hu, chief economist with Haitong Securities International, said it would be too hard to reach a consensus on an AIIB currency basket.

Hu said the Asian Development Bank had failed to set up its own currency basket despite years of negotiations.

"In my view, the US dollar will be used in the early stages of the AIIB, and then [the bank] will gradually move to a mix of the yuan and US dollar," Hu said.

The sources said China would push for broader use of the yuan at the AIIB and the Silk Road Fund, as part of efforts to promote the yuan as an international currency.

The US$40 billion Silk Road Fund is designed to invest in projects to boost infrastructure and businesses in countries from Asia to Europe.

The sources said that if founding members could not reach an initial consensus on a basket of currencies, Beijing would allow the AIIB and Silk Road Fund to use the US dollar as the currency of settlement.

But it would encourage the use of the yuan down the track as the organisation matured.

The sources said that there was still a long way to go in the internationalisation of the yuan and the greenback would continue to dominate the global financial system for the next few years.



李克强：中国无意挑战国际秩序
英国《金融时报》 莱昂内尔•巴伯 、 戴维•皮林 , 吉密欧 联合报道

曾经动力十足的中国经济正以25年来最慢的速度增长，而且增速预计将进一步放缓；执政的中国共产党正在展开大规模的反腐整肃；与此同时，中国领导人正在努力清理几十年来极为严重的工业污染。

在中国总理李克强在位于北京天安门广场西侧的人民大会堂会见英国《金融时报》同仁时，这位中国二号实权人物似乎对这些问题都抱着泰然处之的态度。

李克强直接负责管理这个全球最大的经济体（以购买力衡量），并领导中国经济从过去那种由信贷助推、由投资拉动的增长模式转向更可持续的未来。

这是李克强首次接受西方媒体机构采访。在长达一小时的问答过程中，他神情放松、谈笑风生、应对自如。这次采访是在人民大会堂香港厅进行的，选择这个场所接见一家英国报纸的主编，可谓极具象征意义。

李克强向世界传达的主要信息是，即便在中国发起创建亚洲基础设施投资银行（Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank，简称：亚投行）之后，中国对现有国际金融体系的承诺保持不变。

直到今年1月，似乎还没有任何一个西方国家打算加入亚投行，该行对现有的由美国主导的国际秩序构成了明显挑战。但此后，美国的多数盟友都已申请加入该行，突显出地缘政治实力重心正在以何种方式向东方转移。

尽管美国严肃表明了反对态度，英国还是于上月申请加入亚投行。这促使其他欧洲和西方盟友争先恐后地提交加入申请，让美国颇感孤立和举步维艰。就连美国高官也将此事形容为北京方面一个令人惊叹的外交胜利。

但在这次接受采访时，李克强自始至终没有表现出哪怕是一点点的得意。他多次坚称，中国无意打造新的国际秩序。

“中方愿意与各国一道，维护现行的国际金融体系，”李克强说。“（亚投行）应该是对国际金融体系的一个补充。”

他对英国申请加入亚投行明确表示欢迎，并强调该行以及由日本和美国主导的亚洲开发银行(ADB)可以“并行推动亚洲发展”。

中国有时抱怨称，布雷顿森林机构（Bretton Woods institutions，即国际货币基金组织(IMF)和世界银行(World Bank)）打造的战后自由国际秩序，初衷是为了遏制中国和其他社会主义国家。一些中国学者和官员辩称，这一体系已经过时，需要被取代。

谈到中国是否希望取代布雷顿森林机构这一具体问题时，李克强的回答十分明确。

“不存在打破现有秩序的问题，”他坚称。“我们和世界银行等机构合作，学习了很多先进理念；我们加入世界贸易组织，使中国企业懂得如何更好地按照国际规则参与竞争。无论是和平还是发展，中国都是现行国际体系的受益者。”

李克强甚至对美国主导的亚太贸易倡议《跨太平洋伙伴关系协定》(TPP)也表现出了谨慎的热情。由于刻意将中国这个世界最大的商品贸易国排除在外，TPP已被许多人视为一个“唯独禁止中国入内的俱乐部”。

中国领导人在言谈中喜欢使用比喻。李克强在阐述他对量化宽松政策和美联储(Fed)结束非常规货币政策的担忧时，措辞极其形象。

“实施量宽政策是比较容易的，无非是印票子，”他说。“在推动量宽政策的时候可能是鱼龙混杂，什么都能够在汪洋大海中生存下来，现在还很难预测一旦量宽政策退出会出现什么样的结果。”

他警告称，不少国家还没有实施结构性改革来解决全球金融危机的根源问题。他把世界经济比作一个“先得给他吊水，打抗生素”的病人，暂时无法靠自身免疫系统来使肌体正常恢复。

与不少对中国高级领导人的采访不同，李克强在这次采访中没用底稿，英国《金融时报》的问题也未事先提交给李克强或他手下的工作人员。

尽管这次会谈内容原定不记录在案，但李克强后来同意英国《金融时报》发表谈话的全部内容，前提是不对他的话作任何修改——这一点在中国的大环境下也是非同寻常的。

与李克强随意放松的举止形成对照的，是富丽堂皇的会谈场所，以及端上热毛巾、软饮料和大量茶水的发式考究的服务员。

今年59岁的李克强来自农业省份安徽，是一名中共基层干部的儿子。在1966年至1976年的文革结束前后，李克强有四年时间在农村的土地上辛苦劳作。1978年，他成为恢复高考后被北京大学法律系录取的首届学生。

李克强就读中国这所最著名高等学府时，正赶上中国版的“开放”(glasnost)期，那是一段向长期被禁的西方政治思想敞开大门的非凡岁月。他与其他学生一道翻译了已故英国资深法官丹宁勋爵(Lord Denning)所著的《法律的正当程序》(The Due Process of Law)。当时的同班同学说，李克强受到了一些自由派教授的影响，这些教授中的一些人笃信宪政民主。

1998年，李克强被派去管理贫困的河南省，成为中国最年轻的省长。他的河南任期曾被一桩丑闻蒙上阴影——数万农民在参加一个官方组织的献血计划时感染了艾滋病病毒(HIV)。

由于被视作前中国国家主席胡锦涛的门生，许多人曾认为李克强将成为胡锦涛最有可能的继任者，直到2007年，形势明朗起来：习近平将接任国家主席。

自2013年初出任总理以来，李克强的首要任务一直是大幅削减中国臃肿的官僚体系的规模和权力，同时推进更可持续的城镇化进程和金融改革，并“向污染宣战”。

中国一些政界人士认为，自习李上台以来，国家主席习近平巩固权力的行为，已使得总理办公室的重要性有所下降。

但在经济这个一直由总理主导的领域，李克强表现出了信心。他留给外界的印象是，在人们日益担忧经济增长放缓之际，他是政府政策的掌舵人。

中国国家统计局周三称，2015年首季度，中国国内生产总值(GDP)同比增长7.0%，是自2009年首季度全球金融危机达到巅峰以来最慢的季度增速。去年，中国经济增幅为7.4%，为24年来最低的全年增幅。多数分析师预计，中国经济今年将进一步放缓。

在两周前进行的这次会谈中，李克强承认中国政府在保就业和实现今年“7%左右”的官方增长率目标上面临困难。

“我们的确有经济下行压力，”他说，“今年再增长7%左右的速度应该说是不容易的。”

但他坚称，北京方面有能力实现这一目标，并实现“比较充分的就业，居民收入不断增长，环境有所改善”。

“我们有能力保持经济运行在合理区间，”他说。“从去年四季度到现在，我们在财政货币政策方面都采取了微调政策，当然不是量宽，而是定向调控，应该说是起作用的。”

今年2月底，中国在3个月内第二次降息，另外还宣布计划，拟彻底改革地方政府财政，并在国内经济增速放缓最严重的地区加大基础设施投资。

一些担任政府顾问的中国经济学家和学者向英国《金融时报》表示，对于中国增幅放缓，中国领导层的实际担忧要比他们公开表现出来的程度更甚。

许多人认为，中国经济增长面临的最大风险在于该国低迷的房地产市场。过去一年房价和房屋销量一直在下滑，而且这种局面还可能会大幅恶化。

十年来，中国的房地产市场、尤其是住宅市场的繁荣一直是中国经济增长的主要驱动力，直到这个市场去年陷入困境。

去年，尽管中国房地产行业总体投资继续以10.5%的增速增长，但房屋销售面积仍下滑7.6%。李克强承认，房地产市场的低迷是尤其值得关注。

他说：“我们将保持（房地产市场的）平稳健康发展，既要鼓励自主改善型需求，也要防止泡沫。坦率讲，这几者之间不是完全一致的，我们需要找到平衡点，进行调节，这不是一件容易的事情，但是我们会努力做，而且相信能做到。”

当被问及中国的物价问题时，李克强表现出了更多的信心。中国的生产价格指数(PPI)已连续37个月负增长，这是前所未有的。

李克强说：“国际大宗商品价格大幅下跌，给中国生产价格指数确实造成了很大压力。从一定意义上讲，我们‘被通缩’了。当然，我讲的这个‘被通缩’是打引号的，并不是说我们现在出现了通缩。”

3月份，中国消费价格指数(CPI)同比上涨1.4%，虽然远低于政府为今年设定的“3%左右”的上涨目标，但涨幅仍是正值。

随着日本和欧洲双双推出非常规货币政策，部分目的在于让本国货币贬值，许多国际投资者都想知道，中国是否会忍不住让严格管控下的人民币贬值，尤其是在经济增长放缓超出预期的情况下。

历史上看，中国政府能够抵御加入货币贬值大潮的诱惑，最显著的例子就是在1997-98年亚洲金融危机期间。在这个问题上，李克强与他的几位前任持类似观点，尽管他没有明确排除中国采取行动压低人民币汇率的可能性。

“我不希望看到人民币继续贬值，因为我们不能靠贬值来刺激出口，”他说。“我们不愿意看见货币竞相贬值的状态出现，那会出现货币大战，逼着人民币贬值，我觉得这对世界金融体系不是个好结果。”

李克强还深入探讨了从中日关系到正在进行的反腐行动等话题。他表示，“我们确实在加大反腐力度”。不过，反腐行动主要是由国家主席习近平领导的。

李克强说：“我们在通过约束政府依法行政、担负应有的职责，激发市场活力，打掉寻租空间，铲除腐败。”

公开数据显示，过去两年中，中国有数十万官员因涉嫌腐败或违反中共纪律而接受调查。

谈到中日关系，李克强的言论与中共官方口径保持了高度一致，称日本政府需要直面二战前和期间日本的侵华暴行。

“中日关系目前还处在比较困难的时期。双方有改善的愿望，但是改善要有基础，”他说。“这个基础的根子还是怎么正确认识二战这段历史，怎么能够汲取这段历史教训，不让战争重演。”

虽然李克强坚称中国并不打算挑战现有的国际秩序，但他也清楚地表明，国际秩序需要改革，以体现中国和其他发展中国家的崛起。

“中国要维护现行的国际金融体系，并且愿意做其中的建设者，”他说。“中方也愿意与各国一道，共同推动这个体系朝着更加公正、合理、均衡的方向发展。”

依据这种说法，中国建立亚投行和其他机构的举措，或许最好被视为北京方面的谈判筹码和杠杆，用来推动更快的改革，而不是用来取代或挑战现有国际秩序。

李克强的任务是让中国在国际舞台上的发言权与它日益提升的地位相称，同时确保国内经济不会脱离正轨。他是否能成功完成前一个任务，很可能要等到他卸任后才会见分晓。至于后一个任务的完成情况，几乎可以肯定，在2018年他第一个五年任期到期前，就会有定论。