中欧铁路：中西认识何其远

（文章内容见下）

中国：
马德里到义乌：一杯橙汁的中欧铁路梦
2015.02.01 第一财经日报 陈周锡

美国：
Spain to China by rail: A 21st Century Silk Road riddled with obstacles
2014.12.24 幸运杂志

双方的认识真是站在完全相反的方向。在2015中国经济预测一文里，说到西方常常用以推断中国经济陷入困境的最大问题，债务。幸运杂志还是这个想法，怀疑投资效益。

对此，我相信中国的投资是对的，简单用资金回报率是无法正确衡量一条连接两地带来的总体经济利益的。


【附录】
马德里到义乌：一杯橙汁的中欧铁路梦

义乌中远国际货代公司负责人林辉寰有一个习惯，他在西班牙马德里出差时，每天都要喝上一杯新鲜的橙汁。

“10个鲜红的大橙子，零售价也只要五六欧元（1欧元约合7元人民币），如果能运到中国，那肯定会有很大市场。”林辉寰告诉《第一财经日报》记者。

伴随着“义新欧”（义乌—马德里）铁路货运班列的启动，林辉寰或许会在不久的将来，坐在浙江义乌的办公室里喝着马德里的橙汁。

1月27日，首趟“义新欧”将从马德里启程返回，预计2月中旬到达义乌。60个标准集装箱，装载着西班牙特色红酒、橄榄油、火腿等产品，给中国农历春节拜年。与此同时，第二趟义新欧班列所有货物装载完毕，即将从义乌发车开往马德里。

在 我国已形成中欧铁路货运系列班列中，“义新欧”是首个县级市开通的线路。这背后是“一带一路”引擎启动的轰鸣声。10月份，浙江省省长李强在义乌座谈 召开“义新欧”班列建设情况会议时称，“义新欧”是实施“一带一路”重大战略的重要内容，是深化义乌国际贸易综合改革的重要抓手，符合国家、浙江发展战 略。

“义新欧”运营方表示，计划今后每月开通一列。

5年的准备
作为“义新欧”的运营方、义乌天盟实业投资有限公司（下称“天盟公司”）为开通这条线路准备了5年。早在2010年，该公司就启动申报设立义乌铁路海关监管场所，对中亚市场货运进行了调研、境外铁路运营商、物流商合作等。

天盟公司董事长冯旭斌在接受《第一财经日报》记者专访时说，仅2011年~2013年间，义乌出口中亚、俄罗斯的贸易额，年增长率均在150%以上，这还不包括周边港口报关出口的义乌货物，“有这样充足的货源支撑，坚定了我们做下去的决心。”

去年1月份，首趟“义新欧”连接中亚的班列开通，打通了义乌和中亚、俄罗斯的铁路运输通道，如今已实现每周一班常态化运行。冯旭斌说，由于市场化程度高，综合成本低，货物运输可持续，这趟班列还是有效益的。
在中亚班列货源稳定下，天盟公司开始筹备“义新欧”通往欧洲的铁路货运班列。冯旭斌调研发现，马德里与义乌商贸最为紧密，是义乌小商品在欧洲的集散中心。比如，马德里有一个客户，一个月在义乌的采购货物量达到近400个标准箱。

“当前，中欧货运班列发展势头良好，‘义新欧’铁路计划从浙江义乌出发，抵达终点马德里，中方欢迎西方积极参与建设和运营，共同提升两国经贸合作水平。”去年9月26日，国家主席习近平会见西班牙首相拉霍伊时表达了以上看法。

去年11月18日，首趟“义新欧”铁路货运班列开通，经新疆进入哈萨克斯坦，再经俄罗斯、白俄罗斯、波兰、德国、法国，最后到达西班牙马德里，穿越7个国家，全长13000多公里。

“义新欧运输成本，高出海运一倍左右，但运输时间却下降了一倍，在20天之内。”林辉寰对本报记者说，他们为首趟班列组织货源时，做了不少游说工作，一些老客户更多凭着信任关系参与。在客户得到良好反馈后，如今他们组织货运只要一份清单说明。

据杭州海关统计，去年浙江外贸出口额同比增长8.8%，对全国增长的贡献率18.3%。其中，义乌小商品出口同比增长30.3%，高出全省20多个百分点，对全省出口增长的贡献率高达19.7%。

“义新欧”的增收效应
“义新欧”首趟班列到马德里后，冯旭斌接到很多进口商的电话，包括西班牙的红酒、橄榄油厂家，温州、宁波的进口贸易商，上海的机械和红酒进口商，以及西班牙著名服饰品牌等。

“依托中欧班列，加大对中国的出口，这也是西班牙官员期望的。”冯旭斌说，以前义乌只注重商品输出，轮船空仓返回，成本太高，不利于国际贸易的平衡， “义新欧”开通有望改善这种局面。在冯旭斌看来，目前中欧班列整体处于“市场培育期”，但由此产生的中欧商贸“蝴蝶效应”已开始显现。

“义新欧”是继渝新欧（重庆）、汉新欧（武汉）、蓉欧（成都）、郑欧（郑州）、苏满欧（苏州）和合新欧（合肥）之后，浙江开通直达欧洲的首个货运班列。一名行业 知情人对《第一财经日报》记者说，如今郑新欧每周三列，运输补贴下降75%左右，带动铁路汽车整车口岸获批，顺丰、菜鸟、DHL、UPS在郑州设立中原总 部，以及正在筹备的德国工业园，都与郑新欧的开通有紧密关系。

同时，渝新欧开通后，富士康最近在重庆的投资，每年增加上亿税收和上百亿出口额。苏满欧运行，为太仓的德国工业园注入新的运输通道。这就是为什么这么多城市纷纷要开通“义新欧”的主要原因。


Spain to China by rail: A 21st Century Silk Road riddled with obstacles

The longest rail link in the world sent a cargo train from China to Spain in early December. Impressive, but does it make any economic sense?

When the cargo train from the Chinese manufacturing hub of Yiwu arrived in Madrid on December 9, it was welcomed with a celebration of superlatives.

This “21st-century Silk Road” was the “longest rail link in the world,” longer than the Trans-Siberian railway and the Orient Express combined. And after spending 21 days covering more than 8,000 miles through China, Kazakhstan, Russia, Belarus, Poland, Germany, France and Spain, it did set a distance record.

The question is, does a commercial cargo service from China to Spain – especially one whose maiden voyage to Madrid included a container filled with kids’ spinning tops – make economic sense?

While it may seem like a fanciful adventure, extreme long distance rail service is an important piece of the international shipping arsenal. Use of the so-called Eurasian Land Bridge between China and Europe is well established at least as far as Germany, which receives some five trains a week.

The recently arrived 30-container train of cutlery, toys, and other consumer goods will return to China after Christmas loaded with wine, ham, and olive oil. In the first half of 2014, international container traffic on the Trans-Siberian rail line rose 8%, to 865,600 teu (20-foot equivalent units).

Long distance rail cargo splits the difference between airplane and boat delivery in terms of price and speed. According to Miklós Kopp, director of freight at the International Union of Railways, sending a 10-ton 40-foot container from Chengdu, China, to Lodz, Poland, takes 12 to 14 days by train, compared to several days by plane (if you include customs and delivery on each end) and some six weeks or longer by boat. The price tag comes to some $40,000 by air, compared to $10,000 by train, and as low as $5,000 by boat, Kopp says.

“If you go from the center of China to the center of Europe, it’s [rail travel] a good decision, though not as cheap as by sea,” says Kopp.

Still, carrying rail freight across the Eurasian Land Bridge comes with many problems, says Jean-Paul Rodrigue, a professor of global studies and geography at Hofstra University and lead author of the textbook The Geography of Transport Systems.

For one, freight trains in Europe carry less than half the cargo of such trains in the U.S. because low bridges, tunnels, and other infrastructure problems prohibit the use of double-stack containers. Another problem, Rodrigue says, is that the trip from Germany to Spain adds another week to the journey, cutting out some of rail’s speed and cost advantages.

“Spain is the worst place in Europe to do a train trip. It’s as far as you can get in continental Europe from Asia,” he says. “I think it’s a bit for show, to demonstrate the technology and capability to put on these services. But I have some doubts that these services are commercially feasible.”

Added to these problems, notes Joan Jané, a lecturer in production, technology and operations at Barcelona’s IESE Business School, is that the average winter high temperature in Kazakhstan is 20 degrees Fahrenheit. Such cold temperatures require special containers for sensitive electronic goods, not to mention Spain’s big exports.

“The train can spend six to eight days in places with very low temperatures,” he says. “And you can’t have frozen wine or ham.”

The three operators of the Spain train – InterRail, DB Schenker Rail, and Transfesa – are still deciding whether to add twice monthly China-to-Spain service in spring 2015. If they do, the service will likely have to take a different form to be profitable.

Higher travel costs mean that this kind of train service will be best for high-value goods like electronics and medicines, not cheap toys, says Libor Lochman, executive director of the Community of European Railway and Infrastructure Companies (CER) trade association.

The service could also offer more competitive prices if it were regular and direct to Spain (instead of dropping off and picking up goods along the way), says Jané of IESE. And, he adds, operators could further lower costs by finding high-value goods to sell back to China, making sure containers do not return empty. That will be difficult, as Spain ran a €13 billion trade deficit with China in 2013. (Right now, many containers are sent back from Europe empty; others are filled with cars, car parts, and manufacturing equipment.)

Despite the hurdles, China-Europe rail trade will most likely grow in the coming years. The CER’s Lochman notes that, in the future, a new tunnel opened from the Asian to the European sides of Istanbul could be used for a new Eurasian Land Bridge. And, he says, while it will continue to be impossible to double stack containers, European rail freight authorities are trying to make rail more competitive by upgrading infrastructure to allow for longer, 1,000- to 1,500-meter trains, compared to the 600-meter trains used today.

Still, while traversing a gaggle of countries on the 21st-Century Silk Road may seem romantic (and perhaps even profitable), the method comes with geopolitical problems that planes and boats don’t have to contend with, says Rodrigue of Hoftra.

“You have a lot of border issues,” he says. “You have to think entering Russia with the embargo, that’s going to be a lot of fun.”