贸易战：只说三点看法---zt

Yong Zhao added 3 new photos — with Yan Xiong and 祝歧三.

· April 2 at 1:45am ·

 

【贸易战：只说三点看法】
（作者：清华大学社会学系教授孙立平）
1、贸易战是美国战略思维发生变化的产物，而国内的不明智的言行起了触发的作用。在特朗普上任最初的时候，基本是把恐怖主义作为主要对手的。到发表安全战 略报告的时候，才开始把中国作为头号对手。这个演变是如何发生的？在这当中，国内的不明智言行，起了触发的作用，至少是强化了其威胁感。
2、中国打不起，没法打。美国自然资源的禀赋可以使得其在闭关锁国的条件下也能发展相当一段时间，而我们的资源严重依赖外部市场；最尖端的技术大多掌握在 美国手里，而我们要严重依赖美国的技术；我们的外汇绝大部分来自于美国，没有这些外汇，必需的粮食、石油和芯片等都无法进口；美国有众多的盟友，离开中 国，虽然经济也会受沉重打击，但仍有广大的市场，而我们则没有这样的条件。如果贸易战打到极端，对于美国经济来说至多是重创的问题，而对我们来说则是生存 问题。
3、对企业的影响，让步后对外开放的影响大于贸易战本身。我相信，这次的贸易战会以妥协让步的方式来解决。当然，中国做出的让步会更大，或者主要是中国的 让步。最大的让步是履行加入世贸时的大部分承诺，实行更大力度的对外开放。我觉得，这个影响要比贸易战本身的影响大。对于企业来说，也许是意味着某种机 会。

[Trade War: only three points of view]
(Author: Professor Sun the, professor of sociology, University of China)
Trade warfare is a product of a change in the strategic thinking of the United States, and it has been a trigger for unwise behaviour in the country. At First, when trump took office, it was basically a major adversary. It was only when the security strategy report was released that China began to be the number one rival. How did this evolution happen? In this context, the country's ill-advised behaviour has played a catalytic role, at least by reinforcing its sense of threat.
2, China can't fight, can't fight. The Endowment of natural resources in the United States can enable it to develop for quite some time under closed-door conditions, and our resources are heavily dependent on external markets; most of the most sophisticated technologies are in the hands of the United States, and we have to rely heavily on the United States. Technology; the vast majority of our foreign exchange comes from the United States, without these foreign exchange, the necessary food, oil and chips, and so on; the United States has many allies, leaving China, although the economy will be hit hard, but there is still a lot of it. The Market, and we do not have such a condition. If trade warfare is to be extreme, it will be a problem for the United States economy, but for us it is a question of survival.
The impact on enterprises is greater than the trade war itself. I believe that this trade war will be resolved in a compromise way. Of course, the concessions made by China will be even greater, or mainly by China. The biggest concession is the implementation of most of the commitments made in the wto accession process, with a greater degree of external openness. I feel that this impact is much greater than the trade war itself. For an enterprise, it may mean some kind of opportunity.

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