有专家说:买房好,发财的都是买房的;
有学者道:租赁好,破财的都是买房的。
有大师说:通缩了!赶紧买房;
有高手道:通缩了!千万别买房。
有前辈云:买房是对付通涨的法宝;
有精英叫:一旦通涨,买房的全都死翘翘。
。。。。。
大家莫衷一是,不知如何是好。
其实,定量分析是法宝,
计算之后才知道。
既然是定量分析,先把参数搞全:
- home price
- annual propery/school taxes
- tax loss/benefit
- down payment
- length of mortgage
- monthly rent fee
- rent deposit
- ren broker\'s fee/management fee
- insurance fee
- condo fee/hoa fee/common charge
- deductibility of common charges
- costs of buying home
- costs of selling home
- annual renovation costs
- annual maintenance costs
- homeowner\'s insurance rate
- capital gains exclusion
- additional monthly utilites
- income tax rate
因为以上不是本文讨论重点,把它们固定化,下面是重点,做变量分析:
- mortgage rate
- annual home price appreciation/depreciation rate
- annual rent increase/decrease rate
- inflation rate
- alternative investment return rate
到底是买房,租房?是否应该买房出租?都取决于这些rates之间的关系和较量。
对买房,出租,投资房产的利多点是:
- annual home price appreciation higher
- rent increase rate higher
- mortgage rate lower
- inflation rate lower
- alternative investment rate lower
所以从表面看,通涨高,买房亏了,这是假定房价和租金不变。如果房价和租金之一能够追上通涨 (甚至追上60%),还是买房赚了。但是考虑到现在房价上涨空间无,租金还受3%的法律条令限制,所以通涨对投资房产是个危险的不定参数。同理,如果假定房价和租金不变,通缩对买房是好事,但是如果只要房价和租金之一随通缩下落,哪怕以半速,就是很头疼的事情了。
can you provide us the software that used to calculate % or direct us to the website to purchase it?
Thanks a lot! wish I can get two centts of your " wisdom"...
Sophie