美国战略家十年前制定的挑拨中日开战的计划

美国战略家十年前制定的挑拨中日开战的计划

危言

John J. Mearsheimer 是美国很有影响力的鹰派战略家.在他10年前所写的重要主要著作
The Tragedy of Great Power Politics
中认为,中国的强大是对美国的威胁.

page 400:

The second possible distribution of power would result if China\'s economy continues growing at a robust pace and it eventually becomes a potential hegemon. The United States would either remain in Northeast Asia or return someday to make sure that China does not become a peer competitor. ..... Northeast Asia would obviously be an unbalanced multipolar system if China threatened to dominate the entire regions; as such it would be a far more dangerous place than it is now. China, like all previous potential hegemons, would be strongly inclined to become a real hegemon, and all of its revials, including the United States, would encircle China to try to keep it from expanding. Engagement politicies and the like would not dull China\'s appetite for power, which would be considerable.

page 401
It is clear that the most dangerous scenario the United States might face in the early twenty-first century is one in which China becomes a potential hegemon in Northeast Asia. Of course, China\'s prospects of becoming a potential hegemon depend largely on whether its economy continues modernizing at a rapid pace.... it (China) would surely pursue regional hegemony, just as the United States did in the Western Hemisphere during the nineteenth century. So we would expect China to dominate Japan ...

What makes a future Chinese threat so worrisone is that it might be far more powerful and dangerous than any of the potential hegemons that the United States confronted in the twentieth centruy.

他对美国政府的建议是挑拨中日开战,美国从中渔利.这一点在他的书中通过暗示的方式讲出.美国其他学者对此作了通俗易懂的解释:

http://works.bepress.com/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1002&context=qerimqerimi
page 23

Mearsheimer offers a series of predictions for the twenty-first century, which he acknowledges will not be perfectly accurate, and issues recommendations for US policy. First, he predicts that the US will withdraw its troops from Northeast Asia and Europe. (footnote Matthew Foley, “The Tragedy of Great Power Politics by John J. Mearsheimer”, National Strategy Forum Review, Winter 2001.) Later, there will likely be wars in these regions as states struggle to contain the potential
hegemons of Germany, Japan, and China. Mearsheimer argues that the US should allow these wars to happen, first hanging back, then joining in near the end so it can win the war and have a part in dictating the terms of the peace. These actions would be suitable for a US with no economic interests or moral beliefs.


Mearsheimer的主要观点是大国之间战争不可避免,进攻是最好的防御,因此他要美国主动出击,在战略上抢先击垮世界其他大国(包括中国,俄国和联合起来的欧洲).布什的先发制人实质上是Mearsheimer理论的具体实施.美国在这一过程中遭到了惨败.但这并不等于美国放弃了Mearsheimer的战略思想.而且美国建立了有效的反导弹系统,以及通过首次核打击摧毁俄罗斯90%核力量的准备.两者的结合使美国人幻想一举摧毁俄国所有核力量.如果美国征服俄国,那么美国也不会放过中国.历史上重大经济危机常常伴随法西斯势力抬头,中国对此需要警惕.

希望奥巴马总统能够扭转美国军国主义分子的这些疯狂举动.

关于Mearsheimer理论的其他分析见后面的参考文献.

参考文献

http://www.fhy.net/index/gbidx02a.html

美国国际政治学中的鸽派与鹰派
　　　　　　　　－－《强权政治的悲剧》介绍与分析之一　
枫华园0205b

美中战争的理论依据－－
　　　　　　　　《强权政治的悲剧》介绍与分析之二
枫华园0205c
中华民族到了最危险的时候
　　　　　　《强权政治的悲剧》介绍与分析之三
http://www.fhy.net/On-line/2002/fhy0205e.html

人类文明受到美国极权主义的威胁
　　　　　　　　　　－－《强权政治的悲剧》介绍与分析之四
http://www.fhy.net/On-line/2002/fhy0206b.html

美欧战争的阴影
　　　　　　　　　　　－－《强权政治的悲剧》介绍与分析之五
http://www.fhy.net/On-line/2002/fhy0206c.html

中国应当成为世界和平的主导力量
　　　　　　　　　　　　　－－《强权政治的悲剧》介绍与分析之六
http://www.fhy.net/On-line/2002/fhy0206d.html