牛经沧海10/05/2008Whereisthemarketnow?Itisinanunknownterritory.Nodoubtsaboutit.LastFridayatclose,VXOwas52andQQV50.Thesereadingsputtheleveloffeartoamongthehighestinthelasttwentyyears.Suchnumberswerereachedpreviouslyonlyintheinfamous87crashes,the98financialstorm,theSept11panic,andtheSeptof2002.Ateachsuchoccurrence,themarketbouncedbacksmartly.ImagethatyouboughtsomeEBAYat13ashare,CSCOat10orDIAat8...[
阅读全文]
牛经沧海9/21/2008自称蠢女人者问东方之珠三期会否跌倒零，沧海试答之。本产品将募集而来的人民币资金转换成美元投资于开放式基金(包括股票型基金和债券型基金)和现金类资产。1.投资组合最多可保留不超过10%的人民币资金应对日常赎回需要，其他资金均转换为美元进行投资。人民币投资范围包括但不限于存放于境内托管人的银行存款。沧海:这部分基本安全。2.美元投资[
阅读全文]
牛经沧海
9/20/2008
华尔街五大投行，个个百年老店，久经危机洗礼，却被一手自创的金融衍生产品泡沫击倒，真是造化弄人。
巧的是，本人在最先倒下的全美第五大投资银行贝尔斯登任职，而太太就在全美第四大投资银行雷曼兄弟。前者拥有4000亿美元的资产，雇用18000员工，后者则拥有6000亿美元的资产，雇用28000员工。投行的员工可不是商行的出纳员。
金融衍生产品[
阅读全文]
ItsatisfiesmostofbottomdetectioncriteriaincludingtheVIXandQQVmetrics(pleasecheckmyoldpostingsin熊火烧不尽春风吹又生fordetailsifyouarecurious).
Mostimportantly,mypropitiatoryrulenumber7wasmet:
7.Nofundleftwhenarealbottomshowsup.
[
阅读全文]
Bothforshorttermflipandmid-termswingtrade.
[
阅读全文]
MSwrotedownandcutbackaggressivelylastyear.Thosepreventivemeasurespayoffnow.ThiscontraststoLEH,whichjuststartedbigwrite-downinitslastQtrlyreport.
MSwillsolidifyitsleaderposition(stillbehindGSthough)inthisroundoffinancialdebacles.
BestpositionedfinancialfirmsarestillWFC(bank),GS(Brokerage),JPM(financailsupermarket),BLK(assetmgmt),SCHW(discountretail).Watchtheleaderscloselytoidentifytrend.Once...[
阅读全文]
PayattentiontothestrengthofGSastheleaderofbrokerages,WFCastheleaderofbanksandJPMastheleaderoffinancialsuperpower.Theystillhaveroomtogoup.XLFmeetswithsomeresistanceatits50daySMA.Oncebreakingup,itwillendthisroundofbounceat24(100daySMA)to26(lowerboundofitsupperrangeceiling).
BTW,Iposted熊火烧不尽春风吹又生onedaythemarketbottom(http://blog.wenxuecity.com/blogview.php?date=200807&postID=15...[
阅读全文]
MichaelShedlocksummarizedthatthereare10phasesinabearmarket.Letusreviewwhereitstartedandwherearewenow.
1.Ahugebuy-the-dipmentalitysetsinduringtheinitialdecline.Mostpartygoerscannotfathomthatpartyhasended.
2.Moderateconcernsetsinwhenbuythedipstopsworking.
3.Initialpanic.(FebruarytoMarch2007)
4.Numerousbottomcallsaremade,allwrong.
5.Searchfortheguilty.
6.Punishmentoftheinnocen...[
阅读全文]
ThePainsandGainsinSpeculations
牛经沧海
IboughtSQNMat3.25on10/22/2003(before1for3reversesplit).Itwentuptoover$4onthenexttwomonths.BeforeIwasabletocelebratethemagicofjunkstockpicking,itdroppedtotheabyss$1duringthesummerdoldrumsof2004.Afteranotheryearofsuffering,itappearedtohavenohopeofrecovery.Ifinallydumpeditattheendof2005forataxsaleandtorealizedatotallossalmost.
...[
阅读全文]
1。牛极生熊，熊极牛起。
2。VIX与QQV达低点两倍以上易生牛。
3。熊如暴君，葬熊必得有影响之公司陪葬。
4。市场中较后转熊的板块或最先转牛，颇似STACK。
5。逐利资本必弃老牛而趋新牛。
6。股市中人不可太执著，更不可轻言放弃。持之以恒才有机会。
[
阅读全文]
