牛经沧海投资感悟生活点滴
吾言吾所思，君闻君所愿。【声明】仅供交流之用，不作投资建议。
10/05/2008
Where is the market now? It is in an unknown territory. No doubts about it.
Last Friday at close, VXO was 52and QQV 50. These readings put the level of fear to among the highest in the last twenty years. Such numbers were reached previously only in the infamous 87 crashes, the 98 financial storm, the Sept 11 panic, and the Sept of 2002. At each such occurrence, the market bounced back smartly. Image that you bought some EBAY at 13 a share, CSCO at 10 or DIA at 84. You did not make a fortune, but you should certainly be fine. These are no-brainers. You may pick much better names to make ease doubles.
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I suspect that the dumb money is fleeing the market. I experienced extremely small odd lots when my order to buy was filled last Friday. Institutions will not sell in such odd batches in general. By the way, mutual funds and pension funds are considered as dumb money by my standards. The people drive them with little or no insight about market. There are also politics and publicity involved.
Simply by reading the sentiment on the DQ board, it is not hard to see both bears and bulls were toasted last week. It was painful, but a good sign of bottom.
It is evident that smart money is creeping into the market. The most obvious example is that Warren Buffet accelerated his buying binge recently. Understandably, he claims that he does not time the market. Uh, do you really believe that? Yes, he cut preferred deals that are beyond the reach of you and me, yet it is another indicator he smells the blood and the opportunity won’t last forever.
Another evidence is that the fight to swallow up WB between C and WFC. If it is far from the end of a mess, why WFC bother to jump on the deal with $15B while the market only give half of that value, and C only offered $1 (but for banking part)? Not to mention other participators are sniffing around to get a bite.
I have checked the alpha readings of 200 sectors including the top 100 stock group and the bottom 100 stock group. There are three or four sectors, food, cleaning product etc, are still bearing a positive alpha reading. What delighted me is that the Top 100 group has weakened sharply in the last two months, while the bottom 100 batch did not deteriorate much further this year. The bottom 100’s strength or alpha readings are –81 on Jan 25, -86 on Jun 27, -83 on Aug 29 and –87 on Oct 3. The variations are smaller than 10%, which implies that the bad cannot get much worse. On contrast, the top 100’s strength are 130 on Jan 25, 178 on Jun 27, 131 on Aug 29 and 63 on Oct 3, respectively. Its variation is greater than 50%, which means the good were shot down at a blink.
The readings fit into the profile of a bottom very well. During a typical downturn cycle, investors at first flee to “good” stocks, which will make the top stocks even stronger than a go-go market. Such a concentration of hot money soon inflates the hot stocks to a mini-bubble. As all bubbles will burst, this elite group of names finally got busted in the last few weeks. Once the last oasis is gone, a new cycle will start from ashes.
Are we precisely at the dividing moment of the transition? I do not know, as laways. I only know that it is very, very likely.
[ 机器翻译版 ]
阿呆金钱逃亡，物有所值的进驻
牛经沧海
市场在哪里呢？它是在一个未知的领域。没有任何疑问。
上周五收盘时， VXO 是 52 ， QQV 是 50 。读了这些水平的恐惧中最高在过去的 20 年。这样的读数达到以前只在臭名昭著的 87 机， 98 金融风暴，在 9 月 11 日的恐慌，以及 2002 年 9 月。在每一个此类事件，市场反弹强劲。试想， EBAY 你买在 $13 ，思科在 $10 或 DIA 在 $84 。你没有发财，但你当然应该赚了。这些都是不费脑筋的买入 。您可以选择更好的公司，轻松翻番。
我怀疑是阿呆的钱逃离市场。我上周五购买时体验到非常散碎的卖单。机构一般不会出售这种奇怪的批次。顺便说一下，共同基金和养老基金被视为呆钱，由我的标准。他们很少或根本没有深入了解市场。也有政治和宣传参与。
只要通过阅读大千板的情绪，人们不难看到熊和牛队上周饱受煎烤。这是痛苦的，但一个良好的迹象的底部。
很显然，聪明的钱是悄悄进入市场。最明显的例子是，巴菲特加快他最近购买热潮。可以理解的是，他声称，他并不在市场的时间。嗯，你真的相信吗？是的，他的特权交易非你我能及，但却是他的另一个指标的血液嗅觉和机会不会永远持续下去。
另一个证据是，争斗吞掉 WB 之间的 C 和 WFC 。如非黎明即在，为什么 WFC 会拿 $15B 跳出来争 WB ，而市场只能提供一半的价值，和 C 只提供 1 美元的（但对银行的一部分） ？更不用提其他参与者都在虎视眈眈，垂涎分得一杯羹。
我已经检查了 200 部门 de 的 ALPHA 读数，包括前 100 名股票组和 100 的底部股票组。有三个或四个部门，食品，清洁生产等，尚为正值。我高兴的是，最强的 100 个小组的强度已在过去两个月里减弱，而底部 100 批次今年没有进一步恶化。 100 底部的强度读 : 1 月 25 日 -81 ， 6 月 27 日 -86 ， 8 月 29 日 -83, 10 月 3 日 -87 。这一变化小于 10 ％ ，这意味着坏得不能更糟。相反，排名前 100 位的是 1 月 25 日 130 ， 6 月 27 日 178 ， 8 月 29 日 131 和 10 月 3 日的 63 。它的变化大于 50 ％ ，这意味着好股票被击落。
上述读数非常好地切合股市的走低过程。在一个典型的衰退周期，投资者首先逃往“良好”的股市，这将使强股市更强。这样一个集中的热钱很快将热门股票膨胀起来，以形成一个小泡沫。正如所有的泡沫将会破裂，这个精英集团的名字终于在过去几个星期破裂。一旦最后的绿洲已经一去不复返了，一个新的周期将从灰烬开始。
我们正是在分裂的时刻过渡？我不知道。我只知道，这是非常，非常可能。
Disclaim: The author is not a Registered Investment Advisor or a Broker/Dealer. The author ’ s discussions do not serve as recommendations or suggestions for buying or selling any stocks or other instruments. The information contained in the blog is provided as is without warranty of any kind, expressed or implied, including, but not limited to, any implied warranties of merchantability and fitness for a particular purpose.
Thanks for comments. QQV and VXN are not the best indicator this time since the main concern is centered outside the NASDAQ. IMO, VXO is the best measurement since OEX covers the majority of the companies at issue.