博文
Back from the edge
(2008-03-04 20:04:38)
Justwhenyouthinkthemarketisattheedgeofbreakdown,theBullgetsomethingtheyneeded.1).csco'sCEOthoughttheeconomywillbeok.2).thebailoutplanismakingprogress.howtimely,andthenasdaqbackfromtheedgeofbeingbroken.Itisjustsofunnytoseethecoincidencehowthe"positive"newsandtechnicalsupportalignedsowell,andnowonderpeopleclaimtheconspiracy.
Itbasicallypointtwothingsout.1).themarketisstilltradingintherange.2).th...[阅读全文]
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Nasdaq needs attention
(2008-03-03 20:26:35)
TheArmageddondidnotcometodayasmanyhavefearedduringtheweekend,asamatteroffact,thebullactuallywagedanadmirablebattle,keepthemajorindexesvirtuallyflatattheendexceptNASDAQ,whichcouldbetheachille'sheelfortheBull.
Themarketisinatoughspot,thegeneraltrendisdown,allthemajorindexesareclosertothelowendthantothehighend.Thenasdaqisexactlyatthelowerend,anymoredownwardmovebynasdaqcouldtriggermoresellingsbeca...[阅读全文]
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Do Bull have a case ?
(2008-03-02 12:38:51)
WhatColumnbuswasthinkingin1492beforehisfirstvoyagetofindAsia?Faith,ofcourse,thatprobablyistheonlythinghehad.Onthesurface,apersonalitylikehisprobablywillnotlastlongintradingbecausehetooktoomuchrisk.However,ifyoulookdeep,youmayconcludethatthebiggestwinnersinthewallstreetarethecontraians,youhavetobedifferentfromwhatthemajoritiesaredoing,otherwise,youwillendupjustaverage.
Inthatregard,let'strytoma...[阅读全文]
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Winning or losing Febuary
(2008-02-28 20:36:25)
Sometimesyouwonderwhetherthemarketisdictatedbythenewsorbythetechnicals.Yes,therearebadnewsfromGDPandinitialclaimtoday,so,theycouldbeeasilythescalpgoatforthedownfallofthemarkettoday.Yet,therewereequallybadnewsMonday,Tuesday,butmarketchooseconvenientallytoignorethosebadnews.whyso?
Ithasbeenmypointofviewthatthetechnicaltradeisthetradeofcurrenttime,ifyoulookatthechart,itiseasytoseethemarkethitthe"...[阅读全文]
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In serach of Columbus :)
(2008-02-27 20:08:46)
ThefirstmanwhoreachedAmericaisaheronow.Buttherearemorepeoplesfailedintheprocessofbecomingthefirstthanthosewhosucceeded.That'swhyitishardtobethefirst.therisk/rewardisjusttoogreat.Thisisthesameinthewallstreet.Beingthefirsttobuy/sellmeansthereturnwouldbegreatwhenyouareright,butifyouarewrong,youcouldendupholdingthebag.
Understandthispsychology,thisisnotdifficulttoexplainmarketoftoday.Themarket,asw...[阅读全文]
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Test of Resistance
(2008-02-26 20:54:20)
ItisnosurprisingtoseeDJIAbacktothe12700level,now,thequestioniswhatcouldcomenext?
Afterfailingtoseefurtherdropoff,the"short"coveredtheirtrackinthelastcoupleofdays,thisisdemonstratedbythequickriseofalotofbeatendownstocks.forexample,AIG,BLK,CPLAandHOLX.theyhavebeendownquitealotfromtheirhighs,buthaverecoveredmorethan5%lasttwodays.Ifmyobservationisright,otherthansome"hot"sectorsand"hot"stocks,mosto...[阅读全文]
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Solid ground ?
(2008-02-25 20:54:39)
Thebondinsurerscankeeptheir"AAA"rating,andfinacialsectorsgetareliefandmarketrallied.Whatproblemdoesthisratingsolve?well,itallowsmanyinvestmentbankstokeepthosebondsontheirbook,thus,avoidinganotherroundofwritedownsoftheirassets.Asmatteroffact,themoneytobailouttheinsurnersareprovidedbythesamebanks.So,alltheseseemlikeafinancialgamesandundoubtlyraisedthequestionwhethertoday'srallyisonasolidground.
...[阅读全文]
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Technical difficulty?
(2008-02-24 18:06:08)
BylookingatVIXalone,itseemslikethesentimentalofmarketisimproving,theindexstandsatadbelowits50dayMAandmorethan30%offfromitshighof37setinJanuary.Yetthemarketwentnowherelastweek,andthechartpatternofmajorindexes(DJIAandSP500)isforminga"pennant".So,whotobelieve.
Thereisnodenyingthattheoverallmarketisinadowntrend.Otherthancommoditiesandbasicmaterial,thereisnoleaderstoleadthemarketoutofthisfunk.Asama...[阅读全文]
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Resistance Reaffirmed
(2008-02-21 19:35:48)
Itbecomeserrilypredicatablethatmarketfailyetagainwhenitapproachesits20dayMA.Itaffiremsthesuspectionthatthereislackofconvictiononthebuyers'side.Eventhoughthesellingissomewhathalfheartedbasedonthevolumn,itneverthelessshowedunwillingnessforinvestorstopushthismarkethigher.So,anypeopleonthe"long"sideofthismarketmayneedalittlemore"patient".
Assomepeoplespointedouthere,thechartpatternforDJIA/SP500isa...[阅读全文]
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Fed come to the rescue
(2008-02-20 20:17:09)
ItseemslikethesaviorofthemarketspellsasFED.AssoonasFEDreleaseditsmeetingminutesrevealingawillingFEDtocutinterestrate,stockshruggedoffinflationnewsandreversetohigh.Thevolumnroseacrosstheboard.Maybealotoftechnicianswerecaughtofftheguardandareforcedtocovertheirshortpositions.
Asthisblogisbeingwritten,DOW/SP500standsexactlyattheir20dayMA.asobservedbefore,the20dayMAisabighurdleforthemarkettoovercom...[阅读全文]
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