junqi的博客
just personal musing
The first man who reached America is a hero now. But there are more peoples failed in the process of becoming the first than those who succeeded. That's why it is hard to be the first. the risk/reward is just too great. This is the same in the wall street. Being the first to buy/sell means the return would be great when you are right, but if you are wrong, you could end up holding the bag.
Understand this psychology, this is not difficult to explain market of today. The market, as we pointed out before, is facing a resistance line, if it cross this line, we can say good bye to the January low for some time, but it is a difficult feat precisely because the line is called "resistance". However, who dare to be the first to eat the crab?
The DJIA traded up/down around 12700 the whole day today, and in the end, no conclusion is reached. we are still facing the resistance. and we have to renew tomorrow.
Overall though, Bulls can claim the moral victory. The market igored some bad economic data before market opened. Also, the Bears failed to muster enough force to beat back the Bull like they did several time not long ago.
The market could rejister a higher closing if energy did not fail. There are obviously senses that commodities (include oil) have risen too high and too fast, a critism always following a strong sectors. Given the fact that demand is strong on all raw materials, we could see more highs for the commodities.
One way to trade DBA is buy in the morning and sell in the afternoon. It has happened many times (almost daily) that DBA opened lower but by the end of day, it will overcome whatever the deficit it has and a little more. a clear sign that there are still buying exist. When this run will end is the question many people wonder, but enjoy while you can.
Tomorrow, we will see initial claim, but can any news really damp the enthusiasm of the investors ?
So, just like Columbus discovered that the whole world is a giant circle, we are back the square one again.
