Winning or losing Febuary

Sometimes you wonder whether the market is dictated by the news or by the technicals.   Yes, there are bad news from GDP and initial claim today,  so, they could be easily the scalp goat for the downfall of the market today.   Yet, there were equally bad news Monday, Tuesday, but market choose convenientally to ignore those bad news.    why so?

It has been my point of view that the technical trade is the trade of current time, if you look at the chart, it is easy to see the market hit the "resistance" now as we have been pointing out repeatly last few days.   It should be noted that this resistance/support give trader an rough view of "odds",  it is not a 100%, but it is very useful since it seems give trader an "edge".

It is hard to predicate whether the market will be up or down tomorrow, it is probably an futile effort anyway, but we know that Bulls are reluctant to push the market over the hurdle, thus, a falling market has a hight probability.   So, that is the direction we should "bet".

If you find a weaker stock to short. then, your successful rate probably could be even higher.   since you know a weak market could pull all the stocks down, and even if the market turns out against you, a weaker stock probably will go anywhere regardless.

The consolence of the day is that the volumn was visibly low, so, maybe there are still some momentum left. 

Febuary is draw to the close soon.   the market was down just a little (DJIA is only  -60 points). so, I will not be surprised to see if the bull want to make the month looks like a winner.   who knows, despite of bad news from AIG, dell etc after hour, the market could surprise us tomorrow yet again 

Anyways, be prepared both ways, this volatile market provides both chanllenge and opportunities.