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Solid ground ?

(2008-02-25 20:54:39) 下一个

The bond insurers can keep their "AAA" rating, and finacial sectors get a relief and market rallied. What problem does this rating solve?  well, it allows many investment banks to keep those bonds on their book, thus, avoiding another round of writedowns of their assets.  As matter of fact, the money to bail out the insurners are provided by the same banks.   So, all these seem like a financial games and undoubtly raised the question whether today's rally is on a solid ground.

Nevertheless, it is a good "excuse" for the traders to buy.   It is a "counter move" to pull the market out of those discouraging chart patterns, and it also follows the recent trend that "rally" before FED chairman speech and "sell" after the speech is done.  So, we may have at least one more day to go up before Thursday.

In a technical point of view, it certainly is an improvement.   but it is still in the trading range.  DJIA is just 150 points shy from the upper bound of the range and SP500 is less than 30 point to read 1400.  only NASDAQ is laging behind.   And based on the momentum seen lately, it is very likely the major indexes will try to touch their upper bound.

Tomorrow, we will see the PPI, and based on recent trend, it could be ugly, So, it will be interesting  to how the bull react to a possible negative news. 

The recent big swing provide both chanllenge and opportunities, So, just be prepared(long, short).  and I will not be surprised if this market surprise us yet one more time

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