By: Giorgio Provinciali
Live from Ukraine
Chernivtsi Regardless of the reactions it provoked, Russias recent violation of NATO-defended European airspace is indicative of Putins approach to the war he unleashed in Ukraine and his Western orientation.
Looking at the facts within the context of field experience helps us grasp significant details.
First and foremost, it wasa combined, large-scale attack the kind the Russians have been carrying out almost daily since the US administration led by Donald Trump stopped condemning and identifying the Russian invasion of Ukraine as such and stopped providing the necessary military support to counter it. Including Shahed, Geran, and other high-explosive drones, the Russians launched 415 UAVs, 42 cruise missiles (mostly X-101, Kalibr, and X-59), and one ballistic missile of the Iskander-M or North Korean KN-23 type against Ukrainian cities. Ukraine managed to neutralize 386 of the UAVs and 27 of the cruise and ballistic missiles, but failed to intercept the ballistic missile.
This caused five injuries and one death in Zhytomyr, 31 injuries, including three children, in Vinnytsia (where the Russians damaged 20 apartment buildings), a fire in an industrial area over 1,000 square meters in Volhynia, and the destruction of a textile factory in the Khmelnytskyi region.
All are clearly civilian targets.
As has been the case for nearly four years,a significant portion of those vectors came from Belarus, partially penetrating NATO airspace. Unlike many other times when NATO air forces have taken to the skies without hitting any Russian launchers, allowing them to claim victims in Ukraine,last night Polish F-16s, Dutch F-35s, and an Italian AWACS neutralized around twenty Russian drones(23, according to the Polish newspaper Rzeczpospolita).
A member of the European Parliament, Jacek Protas,publisheda photo of a drone that crashed in the Polish town of Olesno, hundreds of kilometers from the border with Ukraine. According to him, it was no coincidence but another chapter in Putins hybrid war against Poland and NATO as a whole. Other Russian drone debris was also found in Poland, in a field near the village of Mnishkow, located in the ?d? Voivodeship about 300 km from Ukraine, and in Chosnwka, about 50 km from the Polish-Belarusian border.
Boasting of having achieved all (civilian) targets of the attack on Ukraine, the Russian Ministry of Defense announced that it had attempted to target Ukrainian military-industrial complex companies and thatno targets to be destroyed on Polish territory were planned.
This latest, precise clarification does not exclude the possibility that the Russian Federation believes it can do so, andthe hardware found inside the drones shot down last night shows that it has been preparing similar attacks for some time.
Already in early July, a rumorcirculatedin Poland thatmodems capable of connecting to the Polish 4G network, with SIM cards from Polish operators, had been found among the wreckage of other similar Russian drones. A SIM card from a Lithuanian mobile operator was even found in one of those drones, definitively confirming thatthe Russian arsenal is already extensively organized to fly over those countries and connect to local mobile networks.
Since Russian long-range drones no longer carry satellite guidance modules (which are easily disrupted by electronic warfare devices, as has long been the case in Kharkiv and other regions of Ukraine bordering Russia or near the front, such as Dnipropetrovsk), but instead use inertial sensors and cellular interfaces capable of connecting to the telephone networks of the countries they pass over,Ukraine disables its mobile networks during airborne alerts.
As a result,Russian drones flying over western Ukraine have long been connecting to the networks of Polish operators.
Warsaw was not only aware of the attack but had already taken exceptional measures in the hours before it, such as closing its border with Belarus, fearing possible provocations, sabotage, and potential aggression related to the joint Russian and Belarusian armed forces exercise Запад 2025(West 2025, ed.),as Polish Army Chief of Staff General Wes?aw Kukulanoted. Also in anticipation of those exercises (which begin tomorrow and end on September 16), Polish special services arrested a spy and expelled a Belarusian diplomat.
As German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephulnoted, this isnot a mistake but an escalation.
Moscow was not targeting any specific location in Poland but is prepared and equipped to do soboth there and in Lithuania and other NATO countries.
The warm reception he received in Alaska and his recent meetings with China and other leaders of the so-called Axis of Evil nations have bolstered Vladimir Putins image on the world stage.
They portray him asa determined, even legitimate, player in carrying out Russias invasion of Ukraine, ergo of Europe.
Declaring thatthe Trump administration is not seeking Russias economic isolationand narrowing the focus toapproximately 6,000 square kilometers of territory not yet conquered by force, and security guarantees for Ukraine,US Vice President James David Vance dismissed the idea of American solidarity at such a critical time that NATOs Article 4 might be invokedforgetting that the only time the much more feared Article 5 was invoked, by the US, exactly 24 years ago today, no European country backed out.
俄羅斯入侵北約領空，不是無心之失，而是蓄意升級
作者：Giorgio Provinciali
來自烏克蘭的報導
Chernivtsi -無論它引發了何種反應，俄羅斯最近侵犯北約防禦的歐洲領空，都表明了普京對待在烏克蘭發動的戰爭及其他對西方的態度傾向。在實地考察查看事實，有助於我們掌握重要的細節。
首先，這是一次大規模的聯合攻擊自從以唐納德特朗普領導的美國政府停止譴責和將俄羅斯侵略烏克蘭的行為定性為入侵，並停止提供必要的軍事支持來反擊以來，俄羅斯人幾乎每天都在進行這種攻擊。包括沙赫德、格拉尼和其他高爆無人機在內，俄羅斯發射了415架無人機，42枚巡航導彈（主要是X-101、Kalibr和X-59），以及一枚伊斯坎德爾-M或朝鮮KN-23型彈道導彈，攻擊烏克蘭城市。烏克蘭設法擊落了386架無人機和27枚巡航導彈和彈道導彈，但未能攔截住彈道導彈。
這導致日托米爾有5人受傷，1人死亡；在文尼察有31人受傷，其中包括3名兒童，在那裡俄羅斯人還摧毀了20棟公寓樓；在沃倫地區，一個超過1000平方米的工業區發生火災；以及在赫梅利尼茨基地區，一家紡織廠被摧毀。
所有這些顯然都是民用目標。
近四年來情況類似，這些武器的載體很大一部分來自白俄羅斯，部分侵入北約領空。與其他許多時候不同，之前北約空軍起飛卻沒有擊中任何俄羅斯發射器，從而使他們能夠聲稱在烏克蘭境內造成了傷亡；而昨晚波蘭的F-16、荷蘭的F-35和一架意大利的AWACS擊落了大約20架俄羅斯無人機（根據波蘭報紙《共和國報》的說法，有23架）。
歐洲議會議員雅采克普羅塔斯發布了一張無人機墜毀在波蘭奧萊斯諾鎮的照片，該鎮距離烏克蘭邊境數百公里。他表示，這不是巧合，而是普京針對波蘭和整個北約的混合戰爭的又一章節。在波蘭，在距離烏克蘭約300公里的羅茲省的Mnishkow村附近的一片田野和距離波蘭-白俄羅斯邊境約50公里的Chosnwka也發現了其他俄羅斯無人機碎片。
俄羅斯國防部吹噓已經實現了對烏克蘭的所有（民用）目標的攻擊，它宣稱曾試圖瞄準烏克蘭軍工綜合企業，並且沒有計劃在波蘭領土上摧毀任何目標。
這一最新、精確的澄清並不排除俄羅斯聯邦認為可以這樣做的可能性，而且昨晚被擊落的無人機內部發現的硬件表明，它已經在準備類似的襲擊有一段時間了。
早在7月初，波蘭就有傳言，在其他類似的俄羅斯無人機的殘骸中發現了能夠連接到波蘭4G網絡的調製解調器，其中裝有波蘭運營商的SIM卡。甚至在其中一架無人機中發現了一張立陶宛移動運營商的SIM卡，這明確證實了俄羅斯武器庫已經在廣泛實施飛越這些國家並連接到本地移動網絡的操作。
由於俄羅斯遠程無人機不再攜帶衛星製導模塊（這些模塊很容易被電子戰設備干擾，正如長期以來在哈爾科夫和烏克蘭其他與俄羅斯接壤的地區或靠近前線的地區，如第聶伯羅彼得羅夫斯克，所發生的那樣），而是使用慣性傳感器和能夠連接到它們經過的國家的電話網絡的蜂窩接口，因此烏克蘭在空中警報期間禁用其移動網絡。
因此，在烏克蘭西部上空飛行的俄羅斯無人機長期以來一直與波蘭運營商的網絡連接。
正如波蘭陸軍總參謀長韋斯瓦夫庫庫拉鎖指出的，華沙不僅預知到了這次襲擊，而且已經在襲擊發生前的幾個小時採取了非常措施，例如關閉與白俄羅斯的邊境，擔心與俄羅斯和白俄羅斯武裝部隊聯合演習西方-2025（West 2025，編者註）有關的可能發生的挑釁、破壞和潛在侵略。此外，在預計的演習（從明天開始到9月16日結束）之前，波蘭特勤部門逮捕了一名間諜並驅逐了一名白俄羅斯外交官。
正如德國外交部長約翰瓦德普爾所說，這不是一個錯誤，而是一次升級。
莫斯科並沒有瞄準波蘭的任何特定地點，而是做好了準備並有能力在波蘭、立陶宛和其他北約國家這樣做。
他在阿拉斯加受到的熱情接待以及他最近與中國和其他所謂的邪惡軸心國家領導人的會晤，提升了弗拉基米爾普京在世界舞台上的形象。
他們將他描繪成一個堅定的，甚至是合法的入侵烏克蘭，也是歐洲，的操盤手。
美國副總統詹姆斯大衛萬斯宣稱特朗普政府不尋求俄羅斯的經濟孤立，並將關注點縮小到大約6000平方公里尚未被武力征服的領土，以及對烏克蘭的安全保障，在可能援引北約第4條款的關鍵時刻駁回了美國再次團結一致的理念，他忘記了正是恰好在24年前的今天，是美國唯一一次援引了更令人恐懼的第5條款，當時沒有一個歐洲國家退縮。
