狮山巡礼
投资杂谈
Timeless Lessons. Hi everyone. Warren Buffett loved to quote his mentor Ben Graham, who oncesaid: In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run it is a weighing machine.
The Oracle of Omaha often talked about how the stock market resembled a person with incurable emotional problems, going back and forth from euphoria to depression.
He hastalked about buyinghis first stock in 1942. Despite financial panics, costly wars, and high inflation, the market still rose.
The lesson is to filter out macro events, short-term headlines, and stock price volatility, focusing on the underlying fundamentals of a business. The market may ignore business success for a while, but eventually will confirm it, he said.
Buffetts lessons and parables remind me of the volatility in technology stocks this year. While the tech-laden Nasdaq Composite index is up a solid 18% year to date, the road here has been anything but smooth.
Earlier this year, the frenzy over the Chinese AI model DeepSeek led to worries that the large expenditures to train and run AI models were no longer needed. The market also tanked on fears around tariff policies from the Trump administration.
In February, Isuggestedthat investors should look beyond the political noise and take a longer term view, arguing that any overly onerous tariffs were likely to result in a significant market drop, pushing the administration to quickly backtrack. During the DeepSeek panic, I argued that fundamentals surrounding AI were strong and that reasoning models would lead to a substantial increase in demand for AI computing resources.
Both views turned out to be right. In early April, President Donald Trumps Liberation Day tariffs drove technology stocks lower but the market rebounded as many of the tariff rates were eventually rolled back. The DeepSeek fears turned out to be exaggerated, as the most advanced models still required significant resources to run.
, a stock weve written about positively throughout the year, is another case study on the importance of not panicking over short-term headlines.
At the beginning of the year, Ipredictedthat the growth drivers of reasoning, agents, and multimodal models would require more Nvidia GPU computing capacity. Companies would have to upgrade their infrastructure to keep pace in the modern AI-driven world, driving the share price higher.
Despite several negatives narrativesfrom bans on exports to China to rising competition from custom AI chipsNvidia shares are up 28% on the year. The chip makers strong financial results have shown that the growth story is far from over.
In recent months, AI sentiment has turned negative once again, as the AI payoff takes time to come together. As Iwrotelast week, I believe the underlying fundamentals for AI growth are sound. The market will climb the wall of worry. Taking the long view will likely work out, yet again.
