Ray Dalio? 世界脱钩美国 变革即将到来

Ray Dalio? 世界脱钩美国 变革即将到来

为时已晚：变革即将到来

It's Too Late: The Changes Are Coming 

Ray Dalio  https://x.com/RayDalio/status/1916967796065423688

为时已晚：变革即将到来
一些人认为，随着更多谈判的展开以及对如何合理安排关税机制的深入思考，关税问题将会逐渐平息。然而，我现在听到越来越多不得不应对这些问题的人说，现在已经太晚了。例如，许多对美出口商以及与美国有贸易往来的其他国家的进口商都表示，他们不得不大幅减少与美国的贸易往来，因为他们认识到，无论关税如何变化，这些问题都不会消失，大幅减少与美国的相互依存度是一个必须提前规划的现实。最明显的是，无论下一轮贸易谈判结果如何，在华的美国生产商和投资者、与美国人有业务往来的中国生产商和投资者、在美国与中国人有业务往来的美国生产商和投资者，以及在美国与美国人有业务往来的中国生产商和投资者，现在都必须制定替代计划。虽然现在人们普遍认识到，需要尽量减少美中之间的相互依存和对冲突的担忧，但这种观点正越来越被大多数国家中与美国打交道的大多数人所接受，他们正在处理与贸易关系、资本市场关系、地缘政治关系和军事关系相关的大多数问题。
尽管尚未完全意识到这一点，但人们也越来越意识到，美国作为世界上最大的制成品消费国和最大的债务资产生产国（为其过度消费提供资金）的地位是不可持续的，因此，假设人们可以出售和借给美国，并用其持有的美国债务以硬通货（即未贬值的美元）偿还，这是天真的想法，所以必须制定其他计划。
简单地说，巨大的贸易和资本失衡正在造成不可持续的条件和被切断的巨大风险，因此必须降低这种失衡——即过度失衡+去全球化=缩小贸易和资本失衡。
更广泛地说，我想说的是，根据我的许多指标，情况似乎如下：
1）我们正处于货币秩序、国内政治和国际秩序崩溃的边缘，原因是不可持续的、糟糕的基本面显而易见且难以衡量；
2）导致这些日益严重的混??乱局面的事件发展与历史上多次发生的事件发展相似，因此，这一次看起来像是货币、国内政治和社会以及国际地缘政治秩序如何演变的古老故事的当代版本；
3）美国面临着越来越大的风险，即美国将逐渐被其他各国所绕过，这些国家将适应与美国的这种分离，并围绕美国建立新的联系；
4）如果以最佳方式管理这些情况，结果将比以最坏的方式管理要好得多。
在我看来，最好的办法是冷静、分析和协调地进行设计和实施，将不平衡和自给自足的需求视为共同的挑战，从而产生需要进行“完美”的去杠杆和再平衡。例如，正如我在新书《国家如何破产：大周期》中所解释的那样，解决美国政府债务问题有一个“三部分，3%的解决方案”，这将带来比我们目前所走的道路好得多的结果。不幸的是，迄今为止，我们还没有看到更好的办法，反而看到了令人不安的争斗和动荡，这些正在吸取的教训正在导致不可逆转的不良后果。
出于这些原因，我担心我们已经错过了了解和妥善规划世界秩序重大变化的理想时机，并认为投资者、政策制定者和其他决策者需要停止根据日常市场波动和政策声明来改变他们的观点和立场，而是应该冷静、明智地，最好是合作地应对世界秩序的这些重大根本性变化。

It's Too Late: The Changes Are Coming 

Ray Dalio

https://x.com/RayDalio/status/1916967796065423688

Some people believe that the tariff disruptions will settle down as more negotiations happen and greater thought is given to how to structure them to work in a sensible way.  However, I am now hearing from a large and growing number of people who are having to deal with these issues that it is already too late.  For example, many exporters to the United States and importers from other countries that trade with the U.S. are saying they have to greatly reduce their dealings with the United States, recognizing that whatever happens with tariffs, these problems won't go away, and that radically reduced interdependencies with the U.S. is a reality that has to be planned for. Most obviously, American producers and investors in China, Chinese producers and investors in China that deal with Americans, American producers and investors in the United States that deal with Chinese, and Chinese producers and investors in United States that deal with Americans must now go about making alternative plans, regardless of what the next round of trade negotiations are like.  While this need to minimize U.S. - China interdependence and worry about conflict is now broadly recognized, this view is now becoming more commonly believed by most people in most countries who are dealing with most issues related to trade relations, capital markets relations, geopolitical relations, and military relations with the United States.

Though not yet fully realized, it is also increasingly being realized that the United States' role as the world's biggest consumer of manufactured goods and greatest producer of debt assets to finance its over-consumption is unsustainable, so assuming that one can sell and lend to the U.S. and get paid back with hard (i.e. not devalued) dollars on their U.S. debt holdings is naive thinking, so other plans have to be made.

Said more simply, enormous trade and capital imbalances are creating unsustainable conditions and major risks of being cut off, so they must come down -i.e., excessive imbalances + deglobalization = smaller trade and capital imbalances.

More broadly, what I am saying is that, based on many of my indicators, it appears that:

1) we are on the brink of the monetary order, the domestic political and the international world orders breaking down due to unsustainable, bad fundamentals that can be easily seen and measured,

2) the progression of events leading to these increasing disorders is similar to those that have progressed many times throughout history, so this one looks like a contemporary version of the old story of how monetary, domestic political and social, and international geopolitical orders change,

3) there is a growing risk that the United States, imposing these challenges to deal with, will increasingly be bypassed by a world of countries that will adapt to these separations from the United States and create new synapses that grow around it, and

4) if these circumstances are managed in the best ways, the outcomes will be much better than if they are managed in the worst ways

In my opinion, what would be best is calm, analytical, and coordinated engineering and implementation, with the imbalances and the needs for self-sufficiencies treated as shared challenges, to produce the “beautiful" deleveragings and rebalancings that need to take place. For example, as explained in my new book,

How Countries Go Broke: The Big Cycle

, there is a "3-Part, 3-Percent Solution" to dealing with the U.S. government debt problem that would lead to much better results than the path that we appear to be on. Unfortunately, thus far we haven’t seen the better ways and have instead seen disturbing fighting and volatility that are teaching lessons that are leading to irreversible bad consequences.

For these reasons, I fear that we are moving beyond the ideal time to be knowledgeable about and properly plan for these big changes in the world order, and believe that investors, policy makers, and other decision-makers need to stop undulating their views and positions in reaction to the day-to-day market moves and policy announcements and instead deal with these big fundamental changes in the world order calmly, intelligently, and, ideally, cooperatively.