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加拿大阿省省长造访海湖庄园 立即宣布独立公投
卡尼胜选将如何改变贸易战走向
How Carney's election win will change direction of trade war
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cgjlqwxevd0o
Faisal Islam May 3 2025 Economics editor•@faisalislam
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The Premier of the oil-rich Alberta province, who is a regular visitor to Mar-a-Lago, immediately announced moves to make separation referendums easier.
石油资源丰富的阿尔伯塔省省长普通访客造访了海湖庄园，他立即宣布了简化独立公投程序的举措。
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马克·卡尼在竞选地广人稀的加拿大总理的最后一天，我陪在他身边。
这是他最后的冲刺，不仅是为了赢得胜利，也是为了获得他所说的对抗“南方邻国”混乱的领土和贸易野心所需的多数席位。
对于十年前将卡尼视为一位理智的技术官僚、一位危机管理型央行行长的人来说，他能从一位公众演说家变成一位演讲家，实属不易。
我记得我曾无数次采访这位当时的行长，试图让他说一些有新闻价值的话，或者说一些能成为头条新闻的话。
虽然这次的马克·卡尼截然不同，但他在危机经济学方面的渊源也是他宣传策略的一部分。
卡尼身着当地油人队冰球衫，在艾伯塔省埃德蒙顿对听众说：“特朗普总统破坏了全球经济……美国在全球经济中的领导地位已经终结。它仍在发挥作用，但这是一场悲剧，也是我们的新现实……在这场贸易战中，就像在冰球比赛中一样，我们终将获胜。”
他的支持者高呼“肘部向上”（Elbows Up）并举起手，这指的是在偶尔激烈的冰球比赛中，人们会采取挺身而出、奋起反击的姿态。
“我们在全国各地看到的是，加拿大人正在为其他加拿大人挺身而出，互相支持，互相购买，来这里旅游……”
在他位于遥远西部的最后一站，温哥华岛维多利亚市，由于只允许半小时的竞选活动，卡尼在支持者中“断网”了。
“正如媒体报道的那样，我竞选时用的都是散文，”卡尼开玩笑说。“所以我要用计量经济学来治理国家，”他指的是经济学中那种枯燥乏味的数学公式。
在正常情况下，其中一些内容或许能让世界更广泛地关注。但在当前情况下，他赢得选举的根源、他的政策制定方式以及他的职权范围，可能变得至关重要。
周一投票结束之际，我接受BBC独家专访时，他显得充满信心，但并未掉以轻心。
对抗对主权的威胁
卡尼先生的核心论点始终如一。他说，他是应对唐纳德·特朗普“背叛”以及对加拿大经济和主权威胁的领导人。
他在美加边境举行的最后一次大型集会就是明证，身后是大使桥和标志性的底特律汽车公司的天际线。
这座桥是加美贸易的主干道。在世界上两个高度一体化的经济体之间双向贸易、如今关税水平高得令人难以想象的背景下，人们付出了巨大的努力。自由党领袖毫不掩饰地传递了这样一个信息：一个大陆已经发生了变化。
选举结果令人震惊。
进入2025年，民调显示，自由党的支持率低至16%，而反对党保守党的支持率则高达45%。
皮埃尔·波利耶夫领导的保守党不仅有望获胜，而且有望取得压倒性胜利。
但随后，随着特朗普总统以涉嫌参与芬太尼走私为借口，对加拿大征收国家安全关税，并随后提出加拿大应该加入美国，民调结果开始收紧。
就在八周前，马克·卡尼当选自由党领袖后，自由党在民调中持续领先，并凭借这一优势于上周赢得了胜利。
这场选举如同总统式的裁决，决定谁能应对特朗普。
此前对美国总统的示好及其执政风格，从根本上削弱了波利耶夫的影响力。
卡尼吸纳了左翼选民，他们害怕特朗普强化的保守党政府。
令人难以置信的是，在魁北克，自由党重新赢得了分离主义者的支持，而这些人更关心的是加拿大脱离美国的独立，而不是自身在加拿大的宪法地位。没有什么比可信的外部威胁更能凝聚人心。
卡尼的战略
盖蒂图片社 马克·卡尼在竞选集会上，2025年盖蒂图片社
卡尼在接受我的采访时透露了一些关于他战略的线索。他谈到了与美国的“双赢”伙伴关系，并提醒总统，加拿大是美国50个州中40个州的“最大客户”，也是重要的能源和化肥供应国。
他还告诉我，他“有可能向他们提供关键的矿产资源”。在我看来，这是一种针对特朗普在其他领域所关注问题的谈判策略。
加拿大拥有丰富的关键矿产资源，在西方国家将成为比许多其他国家更可靠的供应国。然而，卡尼含蓄地暗示，他的国家在这方面需要做出深刻的战略选择，例如，与欧洲而非美国共同开发这些资源。
无论如何，总理都会利用外部威胁的动力，试图改变加拿大经济。即使在
在接受BBC新闻采访时，他滔滔不绝地表示，他显然认为贸易和战略联盟多元化至关重要。国防伙伴关系现在已成定局。
他似乎承认，停滞不前的加英贸易协定可能会加快推进。
周五，他历史性地宣布，查尔斯国王将于本月底亲自主持加拿大议会复会。这自1977年以来从未发生过。这完全符合加拿大宪法，同时也是加拿大长期独立于白宫的惊人宣言。
现在，所有道路都通向卡尼将于6月中旬在阿尔伯塔省主持的七国集团峰会，届时将汇聚主导全球贸易和国际金融体系的世界七大经济体。
假设特朗普出席，这将在对全球大部分地区大规模所谓“互惠关税”暂停期结束后的几天内举行。
人们常常忘记，如果加拿大和墨西哥摆脱芬太尼关税，那么根据白宫顾问的说法，它们将发现自己受制于这一体系，至少要缴纳10%的关税。
所有这一切都发生在美国传统盟友对整个“贸易协议”进程日益不满的几天之内。
日本也越来越感到沮丧，其财务大臣现在公开指出，日本持有的美国国债是谈判中的一张“牌”。
欧盟的进展并不顺利。就连英国也暗示，与欧洲达成协议或许是提振经济的更有效途径。
与此同时，关税正开始对美国企业和消费者产生看得见摸得着的负面影响。
美国自身也开始感受到其行动不可避免的通胀后果，而美国几乎没有动力提供更多优惠。
空荡荡的中国货船和美国西海岸空荡荡的码头很快就会出现在本已萎缩的美国经济数据中。
卡尼深谙各国政府不确定的实验引发的经济危机，因此他或许对这些情况的走向有着独特的判断。最近几周，白宫派出顾问安抚投资者，但市场中许多人对此并不买账。
但卡尼也面临着自身的挑战。他刚刚错失了议会多数席位，却选择将此视为一种优势。
他将寻求与美国进行“加拿大队”式的谈判。
这位石油资源丰富的阿尔伯塔省省长经常造访海湖庄园，他立即宣布了简化独立公投程序的举措。
无论是在国内、欧洲大陆还是全球经济政治层面，这都是一个非常复杂的环境。很少有人能够准确预测事态走向。卡尼可能在其中扮演着非常重要的角色，而且不仅仅是为了他自己的国家。
How Carney's election win will change direction of trade war
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cgjlqwxevd0o
Faisal Islam May 3 2025 Economics editor•@faisalislam
It was his last push, not just to win, but also to get the majority he said he needed to stand up to the chaotic territorial and trade ambitions of his "neighbour to the south".
For someone who had got to see Carney as a cerebral technocrat, a crisis-managing central bank governor a decade ago, the transformation into public orator was quite something.
I recall endless interviews trying to get the then governor to say something newsworthy, or something that would make a good headline.
While this was a very different Mark Carney, the lineage in crisis economics was also part of his sell.
Carney told his audience in Edmonton, Alberta, sporting the local Oilers hockey shirt: "President Trump has ruptured the global economy... America's leadership of the global economy is over. It's still in play, but it is a tragedy, and our new reality… in this trade war, just like in hockey, we will win".
His supporters shouted "Elbows Up" and put them up, a reference to a stand up and fight back posture in the occasionally rough game of ice hockey.
"What we are seeing around the country is Canadians acting on behalf of other Canadians, standing up for each other, buying from each other, travelling here..."
At his very final stop in the far West, in the isolation of Victoria, Vancouver Island, with only half an hour of campaigning allowed, Carney went "unplugged" among supporters.
"As the assembled media will tell you, I campaigned in prose," Carney joked. "So I'm going to govern in econometrics," he said of the nerdy mathematical strain of economics.
In normal circumstances, some of this might be interesting to the wider world. In current circumstances, the origins of his election win, his approach to policy making, and the nature of his mandate, could assume critical importance.
When I caught up with him for the BBC exclusive interview, just as the polls were closing on Monday, he appeared confident but was taking nothing for granted.
Fighting threats to sovereignty
Mr Carney's central argument remained consistent. He said he was the leader to take on Donald Trump's "betrayal" and threats to Canada's economy and sovereignty.
It was exemplified by his final large rally on the US-Canada border, with the Ambassador Bridge and a skyline of iconic Detroit motoring firms behind him.
This bridge is the main artery of Canadian-US trade. A lot of effort went into this backdrop of the two-way trade of the most integrated economies in the world, now tariffed at unimaginable levels. An unsubtle message from the Liberal Party leader, about a changed continent.
The election result was staggering.
Entering 2025, the Liberal Party was as low as 16%, versus 45% for the opposition Conservatives, in opinion polls.
Pierre Poilievre's Conservatives were not just heading for victory, but for a total landslide.
But then following President Trump's imposition of national security tariffs on Canada, using the pretext of an alleged role in fentanyl traffic, and then his undiplomatic suggestion that Canada should join the USA, the polls tightened.
Then after Mark Carney was elected Liberal leader, just eight weeks ago, the Liberals achieved a consistent poll lead, which they rode to victory last week.
The election became a presidential-style verdict on who could cope with Trump.
Poilievre was fundamentally weakened by previous overtures to the US president and his style of government.
Carney incorporated voters on the left who were scared of a Conservative government amplified by Trump.
And incredibly, in Quebec, the Liberals won back support from separatists, who were more concerned about Canada's independence from the US, than their own constitutional status within Canada. There is nothing more unifying than a credible external threat.
Carney's strategy
Getty Images
Carney gave some clues to his strategy during his interview with me. He talked of a "win win" partnership with the US, and reminded the president that Canada was the "biggest client" of 40 of the 50 US states, and a key energy and fertiliser supplier.
He also told me he "potentially could supply them with critical minerals". This struck me as a negotiation tactic very targeted at what Trump has become fixated on elsewhere.
Canada has ample resources of critical minerals, and would be a much more dependable supplier across the West than many other nations. Carney is implicitly suggesting, however, that his country has deep strategic choices to make here, on for example, developing them with Europe rather than the US.
In any event, the PM will use the impetus of external threat to try to transform the Canadian economy. Even in the granting of an interview to BBC News, it was clear that he sees a critical need to diversify trade and strategic alliances. Defence partnerships are now on the cards.
He seemed to acknowledge that a stalled Canada-UK trade deal could be expedited.
On Friday he pulled off the historic announcement that King Charles would reopen the Canadian parliament in person at the end of the month. This has not happened since 1977. It is entirely in keeping with Canada's constitution, but it is also a stunning assertion of enduring independence from the White House.
All roads now lead to the G7 Summit hosted by Carney in the middle of June in Alberta, bringing together the world's seven largest economies, which dominate global trade and the international financial system.
Assuming that Trump comes, it will occur within days of the expiry of the pause in massive so-called "reciprocal tariffs" on most of the world.
It is often forgotten that if Canada and Mexico free themselves from the fentanyl tariffs, they will then, according to White House advisers, find themselves subject to this system, with a minimum of 10% tariffs.
All of this occurs within days of some growing frustration from America's traditional allies with the entire "trade deal" process.
Japan is increasingly frustrated, with its finance minister now openly pointing to Japan's unbeaten holding of US government debt as a "card" in negotiations.
The EU has not got very far. Even the UK has hinted that a deal with Europe may be a more effective way of boosting the economy.
It comes as tariffs are starting to have a visible and tangible negative impact on US businesses and consumers.
There is no great incentive to offer much up, while the US itself starts to feel the inevitable inflationary consequences of its actions.
The flotilla of empty Chinese cargo ships and empty docks on the US West Coast will soon be seen in the economic data of an already shrinking US economy.
As a veteran of economic crises arising from the uncertain experiments of governments, Carney might be uniquely placed on how these situations pan out. Many in the markets have been thoroughly unimpressed with the White House advisers sent out to reassure investors in recent weeks.
But Carney too has his own challenges. He just missed out on a majority in parliament, but has chosen to try to project this as a virtue.
He will reach across the aisle for a "Team Canada" approach to talks with the US.
The Premier of the oil-rich Alberta province, who is a regular visitor to Mar-a-Lago, immediately announced moves to make separation referendums easier.
This is a very complicated, domestic, continental and global environment economically and politically. Few would predict exactly where it goes. Carney may have a very large part in it, and not just for his own country.
