风萧萧_Frank
以文会友
不要误以为现在发生的事情主要与关税有关
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/dont-make-mistake-thinking-whats-now-happening-mostly-ray-dalio-w8dbe/
雷·达利奥 创始人、首席信息官导师、桥水基金董事会成员
2025年4月7日
目前，人们理所当然地将大量注意力放在已宣布的关税及其对市场和经济的巨大影响上，而很少关注导致这些关税的因素以及未来可能出现的最大混乱。请别误会，虽然这些关税声明是非常重要的事态发展，而且我们都知道是特朗普总统促成了这些事态，但大多数人忽视了促使他当选总统并实施这些关税的根本原因。他们也大多忽视了驱动几乎所有事情（包括关税）的更为重要的力量。
更大、更重要的一点是，我们正目睹主要货币、政治和地缘政治秩序的典型崩溃。这种崩溃一生中只会发生一次，但在历史上，当类似的不可持续状况存在时，它们曾多次发生。
更具体地说：
货币/经济秩序正在崩溃，因为现有债务过多，债务增加速度过快，而现有的资本市场和经济体正是靠着这种不可持续的巨额债务支撑起来的。债务不可持续的原因是，a) 债务借款国负债过多，并且由于依赖债务为其过度行为融资而背负过多债务（例如美国）；b) 贷款国债权国（例如中国），已经持有过多债务，并且依赖向借款国债务国（例如美国）出售其商品来维持其经济。这些失衡现象面临着巨大的压力，必须以某种方式得到纠正，而纠正将极大地改变货币秩序。例如，在一个去全球化的世界里，同时存在巨大的贸易失衡和巨大的资本失衡显然是不协调的，因为主要参与者无法相信其他主要参与者不会切断他们所需的物资供应（这是美国的担忧），也无法相信其他主要参与者不会偿还他们所欠的债务（这是中国的担忧）。这是因为各方正处于一种以自给自足为重的战争状态。任何研究过历史的人都知道，在这种情况下，此类风险曾反复导致我们现在看到的同类问题。因此，旧的货币/经济秩序——像中国这样的国家以低成本生产产品，向美国人销售，并收购美国债务资产，而美国人从像中国这样的国家借钱进行这些购买并积累巨额债务——必须改变。这些显然不可持续的状况，尤其因为其导致美国制造业衰退，不仅掏空了美国中产阶级的就业岗位，还迫使美国从日益被视为敌人的国家进口所需物资。在去全球化时代，这些反映贸易和资本互联互通的巨额贸易和资本失衡，无论如何都必须缩小。此外，显而易见的是，美国政府债务水平及其增长速度是不可持续的。（您可以在我的新书《国家如何破产：大周期》中找到我对此的分析。）显然，货币秩序必须进行重大的颠覆性变革，才能减少所有这些失衡和过度行为，而我们正处于这一变革过程的早期阶段。这将对资本市场产生巨大的影响，进而带来巨大的经济影响，我将另行深入探讨。
由于人们在教育水平、机会水平、生产力水平、收入和财富水平以及价值观方面存在巨大差距，以及现有政治秩序无法有效修复现状，国内政治秩序正在崩溃。这些情况体现在右翼民粹主义者和左翼民粹主义者之间不惜一切代价争夺权力和控制权的斗争中。这导致民主制度崩溃，因为民主制度需要妥协和遵守法治，而历史表明，在我们现在所处的时代，这两者都会崩溃。历史还表明，随着经典民主和经典法治作为专制领导的障碍被消除，强大的专制领导人就会出现。显然，当前不稳定的政治局势将受到我在此提到的其他四种力量的影响——例如，股市和经济问题可能会引发政治和地缘政治问题。
国际地缘政治世界秩序正在崩溃，因为
一国独大（美国）主导、其他国家遵循的时代已经结束。美国主导的多边合作世界秩序正在被单边的强权统治模式所取代。在这一新秩序中，美国仍然是世界第一大国，并且正在转向单边的“美国优先”模式。我们现在看到，这种趋势体现在美国主导的贸易战、地缘政治战、科技战，以及在某些情况下的军事战争中。
自然灾害（干旱、洪水和流行病）的破坏性日益增强，而且， 人工智能等技术的惊人变化将对生活的方方面面产生巨大影响，包括货币/债务/经济秩序、政治秩序、国际秩序（通过影响国家间经济和军事互动）以及自然灾害的代价。
这些力量的变化以及它们如何相互影响才是我们应该关注的。
因此，我敦促大家不要让像关税这样引人注目的剧烈变化分散对这五大力量及其相互关系的注意力，它们才是整体大周期变化的真正驱动力。如果你让自己被它们分散注意力，你将：a) 无法理解这些力量的条件和动态是如何引发这些引人注目的变化的；b) 无法思考这些引人注目的变化将如何影响这些力量；c) 无法专注于这个整体大周期及其驱动因素的典型运作方式，而这些因素将在很大程度上揭示未来可能发生的事情。
我还敦促大家思考至关重要的相互关系。例如，想想唐纳德·特朗普的关税行动将如何影响：1）货币/市场和经济秩序（它将对其造成破坏）；2）国内政治秩序（它可能会对其造成破坏，因为它可能会削弱特朗普的支持率）；3）国际地缘政治秩序（它将在金融、经济、政治和地缘政治等诸多方面对其造成破坏）；4）气候（它将在一定程度上削弱世界有效应对气候变化问题的能力）；以及5）技术发展（它将对美国造成一些积极的影响，例如为美国带来更多技术生产；也会带来一些有害的影响，例如破坏支持技术发展所需的资本市场，以及其他诸多方面，在此不一一列举。）
在这样做的同时，请记住，现在发生的事情只是历史上无数次发生的事情的当代版本。我强烈建议各位研究一下政策制定者在过去类似情况下采取的行动，以便列出他们可能采取的措施——例如暂停向“敌对”国家偿还债务，建立资本管制以防止资本自由流出，以及征收特别税。这些措施中的许多在不久前都是不可想象的，因此我们也应该研究这些政策是如何运作的。货币、政治和地缘政治秩序的崩溃，以经济萧条、内战和世界大战的形式出现，进而催生出新的货币和政治秩序来规范国家内部的互动，以及地缘政治秩序来规范国家之间的互动，直至其瓦解。这些都反复发生，是理解这些变化至关重要的因素。
我在我的著作《应对不断变化的世界秩序的原则》中对此进行了详细描述，以便各位能够清楚地看到其中的阐述。总体大周期被描述为六个清晰可辨的阶段，这些阶段随着一个秩序向下一个秩序的转变而展开。本书阐述得非常详细，很容易将当前情况与通常情况进行比较，从而确定周期处于哪个阶段以及接下来可能发生的事情。
当我撰写这本书和其他书籍时，我希望（现在仍然希望）能够：1）帮助政策制定者理解这些力量，并与之互动，制定更好的政策，从而获得更好的结果；2）帮助那些能够集体而非个人影响政策的个人妥善应对这些力量，从而为自己和他们关心的人争取更好的结果；3）鼓励与我持有不同观点的聪明人与我进行开放、深思熟虑的交流，以便我们都能努力弄清什么是真理，以及如何应对。
本文表达的观点仅代表我个人，并不一定代表桥水基金。
Don't Make the Mistake of Thinking That What's Now Happening is Mostly About Tariffs
At this moment, a huge amount of attention is being justifiably paid to the announced tariffs and their very big impacts on markets and economies while very little attention is being paid to the circumstances that caused them and the biggest disruptions that are likely still ahead. Don't get me wrong, while these tariff announcements are very important developments and we all know that President Trump caused them, most people are losing sight of the underlying circumstances that got him elected president and brought these tariffs about. They are also mostly overlooking the vastly more important forces that are driving just about everything, including the tariffs.
The far bigger, far more important thing to keep in mind is that we are seeing a classic breakdown of the major monetary, political, and geopolitical orders. This sort of breakdown occurs only about once in a lifetime, but they have happened many times in history when similar unsustainable conditions were in place.
More specifically:
- The monetary/economic order is breaking down because there is too much existing debt, the rates of adding to it are too fast, and existing capital markets and economies are supported by this unsustainably large debt. The debt is unsustainable because the of the large imbalance between a) debtor-borrowers who owe too much debt and are taking on too much debt because they are hooked on debt to finance their excesses (e.g., the United States) and b) lender-creditors (like China) who already hold too much of the debt and are hooked on selling their goods to the borrower-debtors (like the United States) to sustain their economies. There are big pressures for these imbalances to be corrected one way or another and doing so will change the monetary order in major ways. For example, it is obviously incongruous to have both large trade imbalances and large capital imbalances in a deglobalizing world in which the major players can't trust that the other major players won't cut them off from the items they need (which is an American worry) or pay them the money they are owed (which is a Chinese worry). This is a result of these parties being in a type of war in which self-sufficiency is of paramount importance. Anyone who has studied history knows that such risks under such circumstances have repeatedly led to the same sorts of problems we're seeing now. So, the old monetary/economic order in which countries like China manufacture inexpensively, sell to Americans, and acquire American debt assets, and Americans borrow money from countries like China to make those purchases and build up huge debt liabilities will have to change. These obviously unsustainable circumstances are made even more so by the fact that they have led to American manufacturing deteriorating, which both hollows out middle class jobs in the U.S. and requires America to import needed items from a country that it is increasingly seeing as an enemy. In an era of deglobalization, these big trade and capital imbalances, which reflect trade and capital interconnectedness, will have to shrink one way or another. Also, it should be obvious that the U.S. government debt level and the rate at which the government debt is being added to is unsustainable. (You can find my analysis of this in my new book How Countries Go Broke: The Big Cycle.) Clearly, the monetary order will have to change in big disruptive ways to reduce all these imbalances and excesses, and we are in the early part of the process of it changing. There are huge capital market implications to this that have huge economic implications, which I will delve into at another time.
- The domestic political order is breaking down due to huge gaps in people's education levels, opportunity levels, productivity levels, income and wealth levels, and values—and because of the ineffectiveness of the existing political order to fix things. These conditions are manifest in win-at-all-cost fights between populists of the right and populists of the left over which side will have the power and control to run things. This is leading to democracies breaking down because democracies require compromise and adherence to the rule of law, and history has shown that both break down at times like those we are now in. History also shows that strong autocratic leaders emerge as classic democracy and classic rule of law are removed as barriers to autocratic leadership. Obviously, the current unstable political situation will be affected by the other four forces I’m referring to here—e.g., problems in the stock market and economy will likely create political and geopolitical problems.
- The international geopolitical world order is breaking down because the era of one dominant power (the U.S.) that dictates the order that other countries follow is over. The multilateral, cooperative world order the U.S. led is being replaced by a unilateral, power-rules approach. In this new order, the U.S. is still largest power in the world and is shifting to a unilateral, "America first" approach. We are now seeing that manifest in the U.S. led trade-war, geopolitical war, technology war, and, in some cases, military wars.
- Acts of nature (droughts, floods and pandemics) are increasingly disruptive, and
- Amazing changes in technology such as AI will be highly impactful to all aspects of life, including the money/debt/economic order, the political order, the international order (by affecting interactions between countries economically and militarily), and the costs of acts of nature.
Changes in these forces and how they are affecting each other is what we should be focusing on.
For that reason, I urge you to not to let news-grabbing dramatic changes like the tariffs draw your attention away from these five big forces and their interrelationships, which are the real drivers of Overall Big Cycles changes. If you allow yourself to be distracted by them, you will a) miss how the conditions and the dynamics of these big forces are causing these news-making changes, b) fail to think through how these news-making changes will affect these big forces, and c) fail to keep focused on how this Overall Big Cycle and the parts that drive it typically transpire, which will tell you a lot about what is likely to happen.
I also urge you to think about the interrelationships that are critically important. For example, think about how Donald Trump's actions on tariffs will affect 1) the monetary/market, economy order (it will be disruptive to it), 2) the domestic political order (it will likely be disruptive to it as it will probably undermine his support), 3) the international geopolitical order (it will be disruptive to it in many obvious ways that are financial, economic, political, and geopolitical) 4) climate (it will somewhat undermine the world’s ability to deal with the climate change issue effectively), and 5) technology development (it will be disruptive in some positive ways to the U.S., like bringing more technology production into the U.S., and in some harmful ways, like being disruptive to the capital markets that are needed to support technology development and in too many other ways to innumerate here.)
As you do this, it’s helpful to keep in mind that what is happening now is just a contemporary version of what has happened innumerable times throughout history. I urge you to study the actions that policy makers took in analogous past cases in which they found themselves in similar positions to help you build a list of things that they might do—things like suspending debt service payments to "enemy" countries, establishing capital controls to prevent the free flow of capital out of the country, and imposing special taxes. Many of these things would’ve been unimaginable not long ago, so we should also study how these policies work. The breakdowns in the monetary, political, and geopolitical orders that take the forms of depressions, civil wars, and world wars, that then lead to the new monetary, political orders that govern interactions within countries, and the geopolitical orders that govern interactions between countries until they break down, have all happened repeatedly and are the most important things to understand well. I described them in detail in my book Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order so you can see it clearly laid out there. The Overall Big Cycle is described in six clearly identifiable stages that unfold as one order becomes the next. It is laid out in such detail that it is easy to compare what is now happening with what typically happens, so it is possible to identify what stage the cycle is in and what is likely to come next.
When I wrote that book and my other books, I hoped, as I still do, that I would be able 1) to help policy makers understand these forces and interact with them to produce better policies so we get better results, 2) to help individuals who can collectively but not individually affect policies to deal with these forces well so they could get better results for themselves and those they care about, and 3) to encourage smart people who have different views than mine to have open, thoughtful exchanges with me so that we can all try to get at what is true and what to do about it.
The views expressed in this article are mine and not necessarily Bridgewater's.
