中国正在扼杀波音

中国正在扼杀波音（第一部分）：作为客机制造商和中国商飞的竞争对手
《中国商业内幕 2025》4月25日

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vNZcXNc9yJs

波音和空客构成了全球大部分客机制造商的双头垄断。

然而，尽管波音公司（BA）积压的订单需要十多年才能清关，其产品单价超过1亿美元，并且是五角大楼第四大军事承包商，波音公司仍然每个季度亏损数十亿美元。

波音公司面临着严重的供应链问题和生产限制，此外，其安全记录也备受质疑。

中国商飞是波音和空客的强劲竞争对手，近期其主力机型C-919的产量有所提升，C-929宽体飞机的交付时间预计将在2027年。凭借数百架飞机的订单和强大的供应链，业内专家认为商飞是目前被波音蚕食的市场份额的有力竞争者。

在亚洲、非洲和南美洲这些增长最快的民航市场，情况尤其如此。在这些市场，商飞要么成为航空公司的默认首选，要么成为可接受的替代方案，因为英航和空客的订单积压和生产问题依然存在。

贸易战和航空业全球关税豁免的失效或许会短期内提振波音在美国市场的表现，但这将使其飞机在其他地方的价格高得令人望而却步。中国已指示其航空公司拒绝接收英航的飞机及其零部件。

闭幕式，辽宁大连沿海

资源和链接：

彭博社，《谁为航空航天关税买单？》或许没人会这么做 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsle...

《华尔街日报》：波音、空客即将失去45年的免税地位 https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/trum...

波音公司第四季度亏损38亿美元，自2019年发生致命空难以来已亏损超过350亿美元 https://www.king5.com/article/money/b...

波音公司的危机正在加剧。现在它正在借入数百亿美元 https://edition.cnn.com/2024/10/15/in...

《华尔街日报》，中国对波音公司采取行动，要求航空公司不要向这家美国飞机制造商订购新飞机 https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stoc...

彭博社，随着贸易战的扩大，中国下令暂停波音飞机交付 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...

彭博社，随着关税飙升，中国航空公司推迟波音飞机交付 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...

贸易战动荡：中国暂停向航空公司交付波音飞机 https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/tra...

中国商飞计划提升C919产能，加大对波音和空客的挑战 https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-ec...

中国商飞将生产75架C919飞机挑战空客和波音的主导地位 https://aviationa2z.com/index.php/202...

《福布斯》：飞机生产障碍导致订单积压创纪录，机队老旧 https://www.forbes.com/sites/oliverwy...

奥纬咨询：2025-2035 年全球机队和维护、修理和大修 (MRO) 市场预测 https://www.oliverwyman.com/our-exper...

路透社：文件显示，越南监管机构提议批准中国商飞的喷气式飞机 https://www.reuters.com/business/aero...

波音商用飞机市场展望，2024-2043 https://cmo.boeing.com/

《华尔街日报》：波音在特朗普的贸易战中遭受全方位打击 https://www.wsj.com/business/airlines...

排名：全球国防预算最高的 15 个国家https://www.visualcapitalist.com/larg...

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早上好，波音公司是美国一家商用客机制造商，同时也是一家主要的国防承包商。波音公司上个季度亏损了38亿美元，过去5年亏损超过350亿美元，这简直难以想象。一架客机的价格超过1亿美元，而波音公司积压的订单已经持续多年。换句话说，波音公司拥有数千架飞机的订单，价值数百亿美元。波音公司与五角大楼签订了巨额国防合同。五角大楼的支出超过了其后10个国家的总和，但这家公司仍然亏损。即使在相对景气的时期，波音公司也经营不善，无法盈利。尽管航空业是双头垄断的，但波音公司目前在该领域唯一真正的竞争对手是空客。但波音的好日子即将结束，双头垄断的局面也即将结束。comarmac是一家正在快速发展的中国公司。他们最终将接管目前由波音和空客服务的市场，但首先消失的将是波音。这是奥纬咨询对机队和 MRO 的预测。航空领域的 MRO 是指维护、修理和大修，因此，这是对全球飞机数量、部件数量和乘客数量的全面调查和预测。目前，该行业积压了 17,000 架飞机，创历史新高。按照目前的生产率，清理这些飞机需要 14 年时间。假设 2019 年没有人再订购飞机，订单积压时间为 7 年，现在是 14 年，因此航空公司需要延长飞机的飞行时间。飞机正在老化，这意味着更高的燃油成本，也意味着需要进行更多的维护和维修，并延长飞行时间，以弥补飞机数量不足的问题。预计到2035年，每年的飞行小时数将达到1.12亿小时，比现在高出39%，目前已创下历史新高。到2035年，中国的飞机队规模将再增长40%。这是波音公司的报告。这是一份CMO（商业市场展望）。波音和空客的CMO正在滚动更新，他们的展望是20年后，也就是到2043年。这是波音公司对各地区的预测。我们可以看到，空中交通的增长将主要集中在发展中国家和全球大多数国家，包括南亚、东南亚、非洲、中国和南美洲。
相比之下，北美的年增长率将是南亚和东南亚的一半。

换句话说，亚洲、非洲和南美洲将需要更多的飞机，而波音和空客目前无法交付他们订购的飞机。至于中国，它被认为是一个更加成熟的市场，但仍在快速增长。交付给中国市场的飞机中，40%将用于替换飞机，60%将用于服务新的航线和市场。这是中国市场的一个独特之处，中国拥有庞大的货运机队，专门用于电子商务。几乎所有机场都设有大型航站楼，专门为这些飞机和机组人员提供服务。这些飞机很容易识别，因为它们没有窗户。这些照片是我几天前在Shaman机场等待起飞时自己拍的。

全球70%的电子商务销售额来自中国和美国，所有这些行业的大多数工厂都在这里。回到奥纬咨询，他指出，飞机订单在增加，但飞机产量在下降。去年全年交付的飞机不到300架，比2018年少30%。客运量创历史新高，因此航空公司别无选择，只能延长飞机的飞行时间。就飞机的机龄而言，以及在相同时间内飞行时间更长而言，这是一个供应链问题，因为没有足够的原材料或设施来制造飞机，也没有足够的人员在这些设施中工作。

中国商飞是中国商用飞机有限责任公司，而中国商飞已经对波音和空客的双头垄断格局构成了挑战，因为商用飞机正在像其他所有制造业一样发展。中国拥有制造所有飞机的供应链，也拥有充足的设施和人员。中国商飞也将失去中国市场。也就是说，中国的航空公司和航空货运公司会从中国商飞购买飞机。南亚和东南亚市场就在附近，那里的买家会密切关注中国商飞。尤其是在波音和空客的订单积压问题持续发酵的情况下，中国商飞的消息对航空业中任何不知道所有飞机在哪里的人来说都是一个好消息。到2029年，Comarmac希望每年有200架C919喷气式飞机投入市场。这也很有意义，尤其是对于那些了解中国市场的人来说。中国市场在一月份，现在才四月份。就在几个月前，COMAX还表示他们每年将生产50架，现在产量增加了75%，也就是增加了50%。Comarmac的高管只有在已经实现之前的目标的情况下才会公开设定新的目标。这就是这里的运作方式，因此Comarmac的产量正在迅速扩大。COMAX的产能激增是航空业的深刻转变，波音和空客的双头垄断正在苟延残喘。Comarmac正在快速增长。Comarmac已经为他们生产的任何飞机准备好了市场和买家。Comarmac已经拥有数百份订单，主要来自国内航空公司。如果COMAX的飞机获得邻国监管机构的批准，就会有更多的需求。越南就是一个例子，监管机构正在推动COMAX飞机与美国标准等同。如果这种情况发生，市场份额就会上升。想想这对一家正在等待新飞机的航空公司意味着什么，尤其是一家较新的航空公司，你无法增加飞机数量或乘客，而且如果你今天订购一架飞机，你得等10年才能拿到。越南的做法将会在整个亚洲、南美和非洲重演。他们的国内航空公司无法从波音或空客获得新飞机，但Comarmac将能够供应这个市场。这将是另一个要么从中国购买，要么在没有关税的情况下生存的例子。这也会以复杂的方式扰乱供应链，但这对波音来说尤其糟糕。任何来自中国的产品都有高关税，而波音从中国购买大量零部件来制造飞机，而这一切都变得非常昂贵。反过来，波音的飞机价格却变得更加昂贵，因为互惠关税，订单甚至被取消。飞机完工交付后，航空公司迫切需要新飞机，但他们还是放弃了，因为现在成本太高了。俊亚航空是一家廉价航空公司，拥有超过100架飞机的机队，但即将交付一架新的787飞机。未来20年，20%的新增飞机需求将来自中国，

但波音公司自2019年以来，他们就没有从中国获得过大额订单，俊亚航空只是第一笔订单。现在，所有航空公司都面临着同样的问题。中国政府要求航空公司停止从美国公司购买飞机或零部件。报复性关税高达125%，是美国工厂生产的任何产品成本的两倍多。

目前有10架737 Max飞机准备交付，这对当时在737 Max问题上频频出问题的波音公司来说是一个好消息。《华尔街日报》很好地解释了用于制造飞机的零部件的免税状态，而这种状态似乎即将结束。除非中国允许，否则波音公司将面临又10亿美元的损失。波音计划在今年年底前恢复交付。今年迄今为止，波音已交付了130架飞机，其中18架交付给中国。737 Max的售价超过1亿美元。但这里存在一个关税豁免问题。许多国家的许多公司都需要生产商用客机的零部件。几十年来，这些零部件都没有征收关税。但随着新关税的实施，关税豁免消失了。现在，所有来自中国或其他地方的零部件的价格都高得多。空客在阿拉巴马州莫比尔设有组装厂，在法国和德国也设有工厂。所有这些针对零部件和材料的关税都将以各种奇怪的方式冲击空客飞机的成本结构。业内人士已经不知道任何东西的价格了，所以没有人再做任何事情。整个航空航天供应链正在被打乱。达美航空就是一个例子。他们的高管不知道新飞机和旧飞机零部件的价格，所以他们的首席执行官切断了新订单，并停止了所有的扩张计划。达美航空有大量空客飞机订单。这些飞机预计今年到货，而该公司表示，即使要征收高额关税，也不必担心。如果关税高达20%，突然之间，这笔账就算不通了。达美航空之前就经历过这种情况。在特朗普第一届政府执政期间，他们曾巧妙地绕过了这一关，在其他国家接收飞机，而不是将飞机租赁给美国境内航线提供服务。但没有人真正确定这次这招是否有效。《虚假申报法》是司法部可以针对这种显而易见的事情而采取的法律。
罚款是少付关税金额的三倍，而且这也是一种刑事违法行为，可能会导致航空公司高管入狱。所以，效仿达美航空的做法更容易，他们表示不会接收任何新飞机。
今年，在供应链的上游，其他公司也在做同样的事情。MET Aerospace生产紧固件，与发动机和机翼相比，这似乎无关紧要，但波音公司却宣布了不可抗力事件，并否认了履行合同的责任。

供应紧固件的所有其他问题都存在。又有一件事情摆在他们面前：供应链堵塞，波音公司无法获得制造飞机所需的零部件，只从Howmet Aerospace公司采购了一个螺母、螺栓或紧固件，供应链就无法正常运转。股票投资者忽略了全局，没有关注其他所有事情，因为波音公司股价在达美航空推迟空客订单后上涨，因为投资者认为这将为波音公司在美国市场抢占空客的销量铺平道路。所以高关税对波音公司在美国市场有利。但波音公司订购的大部分飞机都是为美国以外的航空公司制造的。空客更有可能在世界其他地区获得市场份额。恐怖分子的出现对空客公司有利。在美国以外的所有地区，波音公司都受益。

在中国，波音公司面临被永远拒之门外的风险，这将对空客和Comarmac公司有利。回到这张图表。Comarmac公司根本不在乎他们是否在美国卖不出一架飞机。欧洲或北美为什么要费心尝试，Comarmac 只需出现就能占领中国市场，对于这里所有有巨大增长计划的市场，除非波音和空客想出如何比现在更快地制造飞机，Comarmac 将出售他们制造的每架飞机，这些市场将属于能够制造飞机的公司，就这么简单，拥有飞机供应链的公司，拥有训练有素的机械师和技术人员，他们可以制造飞机并提供替换零件，行业能力可以提高产量以满足航空公司的需求，而波音和空客现在无法做到这一点，这是 Dalon Leon 的优点。

China is killing Boeing, Part I: As a builder of passenger jets and competitor to COMAC

 Inside China Business  2025年4月25日

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vNZcXNc9yJs

Boeing and Airbus form the duopoly of firms that manufacture most of the world's passenger jets.

But Boeing (BA) loses billions of dollars every quarter.  This, despite a backlog of orders that will take over a decade to clear, products that costs over $100 million each, and serving as the Pentagon's fourth largest military contractor.

Boeing faces severe supply chain issues and production constraints, in addition to well-documented concerns about its safety record.

China's COMAC is a serious rival to Boeing and Airbus, and recently ramped up production of its main offering, the C-919, and will have the C-929 widebody ready by 2027.  With an order book of hundreds of aircraft and robust supply chains, industry experts count COMAC as a strong contender for market share now owned by Boeing.

This will be especially true in the fastest-growing commercial markets in Asia, Africa, and South America, where COMAC will be either the default first choice for airlines, or an acceptable alternative as backlogs and production issues persist at BA and Airbus.

The trade war and the collapse of the aviation industry's global tariff exemptions may be a short-term boost for Boeing in the US market, but will make their planes prohibitively expensive everywhere else.  China has instructed its airlines to refuse deliveries of BA aircraft and parts.

Closing scene, Dalian coast, Liaoning

Resources and links:

Bloomberg, Who Pays for Aerospace Tariffs? Maybe No One https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsle...

Wall Street Journal, Boeing, Airbus Set to Lose 45-Year Duty-Free Status https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/trum...

Boeing posts $3.8 billion Q4 loss and has lost more than $35 billion since fatal crashes in 2019 https://www.king5.com/article/money/b...

Boeing’s crisis is getting worse. Now it’s borrowing tens of billions of dollars https://edition.cnn.com/2024/10/15/in...

Wall Street Journal, China Goes After Boeing, Tells Airlines Not to Order New Aircraft From U.S. Jet Maker https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stoc...

Bloomberg, China Orders Boeing Jet Delivery Halt as Trade War Expands https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...

Bloomberg, Chinese Airline Delays Boeing Jet Delivery as Tariffs Surge https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...

Trade War Turbulence: China Halts Boeing Jet Deliveries For Airlines https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/tra...

Comac ramps up challenge to Boeing and Airbus with plans to boost C919 production capacity https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-ec...

COMAC to Produce 75 C919 Jets to Challenge Airbus and Boeing Dominance https://aviationa2z.com/index.php/202...

Forbes, Aircraft Production Hurdles Create Record Order Backlog, Older Fleet https://www.forbes.com/sites/oliverwy...

Oliver Wyman, Global Fleet And MRO Market Forecast 2025-2035 https://www.oliverwyman.com/our-exper...

Reuters, Vietnam regulator proposes approval of Chinese COMAC jets, documents show https://www.reuters.com/business/aero...

Boeing Commercial Market Outlook, 2024-43 https://cmo.boeing.com/

Wall Street Journal, Boeing Hit From All Sides in Trump’s Trade War https://www.wsj.com/business/airlines...

Ranked: The 15 Largest Defense Budgets in the World https://www.visualcapitalist.com/larg...

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good morning boeing is an American
manufacturer of commercial airliners
jets as well as a major defense
contractor in the last quarter Boeing
lost $3.8 billion and the company has lost over $
35 billion in the last 5 years and it's
hard to imagine how that's even possible
an airliner costs over $100 million and
Boeing has a backlog of orders that goes
out for years in other words Boeing has
an order book of thousands of planes and
tens of billions of dollars and Boeing
has huge defense contracts with the
Pentagon the Pentagon spends more than
the next 10 countries combined and this
company still manages to lose money
boeing then is a poorlyrun company even
in relatively good times and cannot make
money even though the aircraft industry
is a duopoly their only real competition in
that space today is Airbus but the good
times are ending for Boeing and that
duopoly is also ending comarmac is a
Chinese company who is growing rapidly
and they will eventually take over the
markets that are served today by Boeing
and Airbus but it's going to be Boeing
that goes away first this is the fleet and MRO forecast
from Oliver Wyman mro in aviation is
maintenance repair and overhaul so it's
a comprehensive survey and forecast for
how many planes how many parts how many
passengers across the world today the
industry has backlog of 17,000 planes a
record high at current production rates
it will take 14 years to clear those
assuming nobody shows up to order
anymore in 2019 the order backlog was 7
years and now it's 14 so airlines need to fly their planes
for longer planes are getting older and
that means higher fuel costs that also
means much more maintenance and repairs
and longer flight times to compensate
for the fact that there aren't enough
planes 112 million flight hours per year are
forecast for 2035 which is 39% higher than now and
it's a record high right now china will grow its fleet of planes
by another 40% during that time out to
2035 here is Boeing's report this is a
CMO or commercial market outlook cmos
for Boeing and Airbus are rolling and
they look out for 20 years so in this
case through 2043 here is Boeing's
forecast by region and we can see that
the growth in air traffic is going to be
primarily in the developing world and in
the global south global majority
countries south Asia Southeast Asia
Africa China and South America all will
grow at 5% or more per year by
comparison North America will grow at
half the rate of South and Southeast
Asia in other words Asia Africa and South
America will need a lot more planes and
Boeing and Airbus can't deliver the
planes that they have on order
now as for China it's considered a much
more mature market but it's still
growing fast 40% of the planes delivered
to the Chinese market will be
replacement aircraft with 60% to serve
new routes and markets this is a unique feature to the Chinese
market that China has an enormous cargo
fleet that is dedicated to e-commerce
there are huge terminals at almost all
the airports here which only serve those
aircraft and crews these planes are easy
to spot because they don't have any
windows these are photos that I took
myself waiting for takeoff out of Shaman
a few days ago 70% of all the e-commerce
sales in the world are China and United
States and most of the factories for all
those industries are right
here back to Oliver Wyman who notes that
the order books for planes are rising
but aircraft production is falling fewer
than300 airplanes were delivered during
all of last year which is 30% below 2018
passenger traffic is booming all-time
highs so airlines have no choice but to
fly their planes for longer and longer
longer in terms of how old the planes
are and longer in terms of the time in
the air in the same amount of time it's
a supply chain problem there aren't
enough raw materials or facilities to
build them or people to work in those
facilities comarmac is the commercial
aircraft corporation of China and COMAC
already represents a challenge to the
duopoly of Boeing and Airbus because
commercial aircraft is already going the
way that all the other manufacturing
industries have gone china owns the
supply chains to make everything and
they also have plenty facilities and
they have plenty of people comarmac will
also have China's market to lose that's
to say that Chinese airlines and air
cargo carriers here they will buy planes
from Comarmac is a first choice south
Asia and Southeast Asia markets are
literally next door and buyers there
will be looking hard at Comarmac 2
especially as these backlogs at Boeing
and Airbus drag on and the news out of
Comarmac is encouraging to anyone in the
airline business who has no idea where
all the planes are going to come from by
2029 Comarmac hopes that 200 of their
C919 jets hit the market every
year this is telling too especially for
those who know China in January it's
only April now so just a few months ago
COMAX said they were going to build 50
per year now it's 75 or 50% more com
executives would only set that new goal
publicly if they had already met their
previous one that's how it works here so
production at Comarmac is scaling up and
quickly bottom line COMAX capacity boom
is a profound shift in aviation and the
Boeing and Airbus duopoly is living on
borrowed time comarmac is growing
aggressively and Comarmac has ready
markets and buyers for any plane they
build comarmac has hundreds of orders
mostly from domestic airlines and there
is more ready demand when COMAX planes
get approved by regulators in neighboring countries vietnam is an
example where regulators are pushing to
recognize COMAX planes as equivalent to
American standards when that happens the market share goes
up and consider what it means for an
airline who is waiting for new planes
especially if it's a newer airline you
can't add roots or passengers and you're
waiting 10 years to get a plane if you
order it today what Vietnam is doing will be
replayed all across Asia and South
America and Africa their domestic
airlines cannot get new planes from
Boeing or Airbus but Comarmac will be
able to supply this market it will be
another instance of either buying from
China or doing without the tariff situation is
scrambling up supply chains in complex
ways as well but it's especially bad for
Boeing anything coming from China has a
high tariff and Boeing buys a lot of
components from China to build their
planes that is all getting very
expensive going the other way Boeing
planes just became much more expensive
because of reciprocal tariffs orders are
being cancelled even after the planes
have been completed and delivered
airlines are desperate for new planes
but they're walking away anyway because
now they just cost too much junya is a
budget airline here with a fleet of over
a 100 planes but paws delivery of a new
787 20% of the new demand for planes in the
next 20 years will be here but Boeing
hasn't had large orders from China since
2019 and Junya was just the first it's
now all the airlines here china's
government requested that airlines halt
buys of planes or parts from US companies the retaliatory tariffs 125% more than double the cost of anything coming out of US factories
there are 10 737 Max planes which are
ready for delivery which at the time was
welcome relief for Boeing who had so
many problems with the 737 Max the Wall Street Journal does a good
job here of explaining the dutyfree
status of components that go into
building airplanes that seems to be
ending boeing is looking at another
billion in losses unless China resumes
deliveries by the end of this year and
of the 130 planes Boeing has delivered
so far this year 18 came to China the price of the 737 Max is over
$100 million but here is the tariff exemption
problem it takes a lot of companies in a
lot of countries to produce parts for a
commercial airliner and for decades
there were no tariffs applied on any of
it but with the new tariffs that
exemption goes away and everything
sourced from China or from anywhere now
costs a lot more airbus has an assembly
plant in Mobile Alabama other plants in France and
Germany so all these tariffs on
components and materials are going to
hit cost structures of Airbus planes in
a lot of weird ways nobody in the
industry has any idea what anything is
going to cost anymore and so nobody is
doing anything the entire supply chain
for aerospace is being blown
up delta Airlines is an example and
their executives don't know what
anything costs anymore either for new
planes or parts for their old ones so
their CEO cut off new orders and stopped
all their expansion plans delta had big
orders for Airbus planes that are
supposed to arrive this year and the
company said don't even bother if
they're going to have a high tariff on
them if the tariff is 20% suddenly the
math doesn't work delta went through this before
during the first Trump administration
and they had a clever workaround by
taking delivery in a different
country than leasing the plane to
service routes in the United States
but nobody is really sure if that'll
work this time the False Claims Act is a
law that the Justice Department could
employ here against something as obvious
as that and the fines are three times
the amount of underpaid tariffs and it's
also a criminal violation that might see
airline executives going to jail so it's
easier to do just what Delta did and say
they're not going to take any new planes
this year further up the supply chain other
companies are doing the same thing how
met aerospace makes fasteners and that
doesn't seem significant compared to
engines and wings but how declared a
force majure event and disclaimed their
responsibility to fulfill contracts to
supply fasteners with all the other problems
Boeing has got here's another one for
them the supply chain is getting jammed
up and Boeing doesn't get the parts it
needs to build their planes just one nut
or bolt or a fastener from Howmet
Aerospace and the supply chain doesn't
work stock investors are missing the big
picture here and not paying attention to
everything else going on because Boeing
stock went up after Delta pushed back
their Airbus order because investors
thought that would clear a path for
Boeing to take sales from Airbus in the
US market so the high tariffs are to
Boeing's benefit in the American market
but most of Boeing's planes on order are
for airlines outside the United States
and Airbus is much more likely to gain
market share in the rest of the world
the terrorist would be to Airbus's
benefit everywhere outside the United
States in China Boeing is at risk of
being locked out forever which would be
to Airbus's benefit and to the benefit
of Comarmac going back to this chart again Comarmac
doesn't care if they never sell a plane
in Europe or North America why bother to
even try comarmac will have the China
market just by showing up and for all
the markets here that have big growth
plans unless Boeing and Airbus figure
out how to build planes a lot faster
than they are now Comarmac will sell
every single plane they build these
markets will belong to the company that
can build planes it's as simple as that
the company that has the supply chains
for planes the highly trained machinists
and technicians who can build them and
the replacement parts for them the
industry capacity to ramp up production
to meet the demand from airlines and Boeing and Airbus can't do
those things now this is Dalon Leon be good.