风萧萧_Frank
以文会友
美国的新冷战：亚尼斯·瓦鲁法基斯谈保护美元霸权的斗争
2024 年 11 月 16 日
希腊前财政部长亚尼斯·瓦鲁法基斯在一次富有挑衅性的分析中，对他认为的美国与中国之间日益激烈的冷战的真正根源进行了清晰的阐述。瓦鲁法基斯认为，这场新的对抗绝非仅仅是军事实力或意识形态霸权的较量，而是围绕着一个经济战场：美元霸权。他认为，中国的技术和金融进步，特别是在金融科技和数字支付系统领域，是对美国全球霸权的直接威胁。
瓦鲁法基斯认为，美国发动这场经济战是为了遏制中国在金融技术方面的发展。中国的进步，包括其央行数字货币和金砖国家支付系统的建立，使贸易伙伴能够完全绕过美元，以当地货币结算国际贸易。他认为，这可能会削弱美元作为世界储备货币的地位——这一地位长期以来赋予了美国非凡的经济和地缘政治力量。
美元的主导地位植根于其作为法定货币的角色，这意味着它的价值不是由黄金等实物商品支撑，而是由美国政府的信任和信用支撑。这一体系在 1970 年代放弃金本位后得到巩固，使美国能够自由印钞、维持巨额贸易逆差并为其全球军事存在提供资金。然而，正如瓦鲁法基斯警告的那样，这种安排在很大程度上取决于其他国家继续依赖美元进行贸易和作为储备资产。如果中国的数字人民币或金砖国家多边货币体系等替代方案获得支持，美国经济秩序的基础可能会受到严重破坏。
瓦鲁法基斯的见解凸显了华盛顿日益增长的担忧。美国采取了旨在遏制中国崛起的措施，包括对中国科技公司的制裁、限制获取关键半导体技术的渠道，以及采取地缘政治手段来加强排除中国的联盟。但正如瓦鲁法基斯指出的那样，这些策略可能会被证明对全球向多极货币体系的协调转变无效。全球南方国家及其他地区的国家越来越多地被减少对美元依赖的金融体系的前景所吸引，这使它们能够绕过美国控制的网络的脆弱性和限制。
美国能否成功遏制这些发展的霸权努力？瓦鲁法基斯仍然持怀疑态度。他认为，美国的这些尝试是在一个日益互联互通和多极化的世界中维持不可持续的现状的绝望尝试。他认为，脱离美元不仅是对美国霸权的挑战，而且是新兴大国的经济抱负和数字时代的创新所推动的必然演变。
最后，瓦鲁法基斯的分析提出了一个令人警醒的现实：美国通过经济胁迫和技术压制来维持其主导地位的战略可能只会加速它试图阻止的变化。随着各国继续使其金融和技术生态系统多样化，世界可能确实会目睹以美元为中心的秩序的衰落——这一转变可能会重塑未来几代全球权力格局。
America's New Cold War: Yanis Varoufakis on the Battle to Protect Dollar Hegemony
November 16, 2024
In a provocative analysis, Yanis Varoufakis, Greece’s former finance minister, has cast a stark light on what he believes to be the true underpinnings of America’s burgeoning cold war with China. Far from being a mere contest of military might or ideological supremacy, Varoufakis argues that this new confrontation centers on an economic battlefield: the supremacy of the American dollar. He identifies China’s technological and financial advancements, particularly in the realm of fintech and digital payment systems, as a direct threat to U.S. global hegemony.
Varoufakis contends that the United States is waging this economic war to stifle China’s evolution in financial technology. China’s advancements, including its central bank digital currency and the establishment of the BRICS Pay system, allow trading partners to bypass the dollar altogether, settling international trade in their local currencies. This, he posits, could erode the dollar’s status as the world’s reserve currency—a position that has long granted the U.S. extraordinary economic and geopolitical power.
The dollar’s dominance is rooted in its role as a fiat currency, meaning its value is not backed by a physical commodity like gold but by the trust and credit of the U.S. government. This system, cemented after the abandonment of the gold standard in the 1970s, has enabled the U.S. to print money freely, sustain vast trade deficits, and fund its global military presence. However, as Varoufakis warns, this arrangement depends heavily on other nations continuing to rely on the dollar for trade and as a reserve asset. If alternatives like China’s digital yuan or BRICS’ multilateral currency systems gain traction, the foundation of the U.S. economic order could be severely undermined.
Varoufakis’s insights underline the growing apprehension in Washington. The U.S. has responded with measures aimed at containing China’s rise, including sanctions on Chinese tech firms, restrictions on access to critical semiconductor technologies, and geopolitical maneuvering to bolster alliances that exclude China. But as Varoufakis points out, such tactics may prove ineffective against a concerted global shift toward a multipolar currency system. Countries in the Global South and beyond are increasingly drawn to the prospect of financial systems that reduce dependence on the dollar, enabling them to bypass the vulnerabilities and constraints of U.S.-controlled networks.
Will the U.S. succeed in its hegemonic efforts to quash these developments? Varoufakis remains skeptical. He views America’s attempts as a desperate bid to preserve an unsustainable status quo in an increasingly interconnected and multipolar world. The shift away from the dollar, he suggests, is not just a challenge to U.S. hegemony but an inevitable evolution driven by the economic aspirations of emerging powers and the innovations of the digital age.
In the end, Varoufakis’s analysis presents a sobering reality: America’s strategy to maintain its dominance through economic coercion and technological suppression may only accelerate the very changes it seeks to prevent. As nations continue to diversify their financial and technological ecosystems, the world may indeed witness the decline of the dollar-centric order—a transformation that could reshape global power dynamics for generations to come.
