Jim Sciutto 影子战争 俄罗斯和中国击败美国秘密行动

Jim Sciutto，《影子战争：揭秘俄罗斯和中国击败美国的秘密行动》。

美国对“影子战争”的看法

https://en.unav.edu/web/global-affairs/detalle/-/blogs/la-percepcion-americana-sobre-la-guerra-en-la-sombra-

Jim Sciutto，《影子战争：揭秘俄罗斯和中国击败美国的秘密行动》。哈斯珀柯林斯出版社。纽约，2019 年。308 页]

评论/Álvaro de Lecea

《影子战争：揭秘俄罗斯和中国击败美国的秘密行动》随着冷战的结束，前苏联与胜利的美国对立，国际体系从两极转向后者主导的霸权。在美国的领导下，西方专注于民主和商业全球化的传播，如果说西方的地缘战略关注点是什么的话，那就是 9/11 基地组织对双子塔的袭击，因此关注的焦点发生了变化，今天的俄罗斯被推到了幕后。然而，俄罗斯继续在旧敌的阴影下慢慢重建自己，而旧敌已不再表现出多大兴趣。中国加入了俄罗斯的行列，开始突飞猛进。此时，美国开始意识到，有两个大国紧随其后，它正在卷入一场它甚至不知道存在的战争：影子战争。

这是 CNN 首席国家安全记者 Jim Sciutto 用来描述他在整本书中详细描述的内容以及后来被称为混合战争或灰色地带战争的术语。修托更喜欢谈论影子战争，也可以翻译为暗中战争，因为这更能体现出它在公开或常规战争的雷达下的隐形性。

这场新战争是由俄罗斯和中国发起的，它们不是盟友，而是有共同敌人的国家：美国。这是一个混合战争主题，因此包含军事和非军事手段。另一方面，它并不设想两大集团之间发生直接的军事对抗。在《影子战争：俄罗斯和中国击败美国的秘密行动》一书中，修托解释了七种情况，在这些情况下，可以清楚地观察到中国和俄罗斯正在采取的击败美国的战略，从而成为世界主要大国并实施自己的国际规范。

首先，值得注意的是，俄罗斯和中国虽然采取了类似的战略，但却是不同类型的对手：一方面，中国是一个崛起的大国，而俄罗斯更像是一个正在衰落的大国，正在试图恢复昔日的自我。然而，两国都有许多相似之处。首先，两国都试图扩大其在各自地区的影响力。其次，两国都遭受着国内合法性危机。第三，两国都试图纠正历史错误，恢复其所认为的国家作为世界领导者的合法地位。最后，两国都具有高度的民族团结，因此大多数人口都会为国家做任何必要的事情。

在影子战争中，由于俄罗斯和中国制定的规则，任何主要参与者都可以获胜，无论其对其他国际参与者的权力或影响力如何。根据国际办公室的理论，这些规则可以被视为遵循了一个非常现实的守护神，因为在某种程度上，任何事情都可以取胜。谎言和欺骗的力量是当今的主流，人们认为不可想象的界限被跨越了。正如书中所解释和阐述的，中国在南海建造的人工岛屿军事化，而习近平本人曾承诺不会这样做；2016 年美国大选期间，俄罗斯黑客入侵民主党计算机系统，这可能帮助唐纳德·特朗普获胜，这些都是例子。

除此之外，还必须补充一个非传统战争背景下正在发生的事情的重要部分：美国对正在发生的一切都抱有特别错误的想法。首先，正如 Sciutto 所解释的那样，美国犯下的第一个错误是忽视了俄罗斯作为国际舞台上的一个相关焦点。它认为，在冷战中击败俄罗斯后，俄罗斯将不再重新成为一个大国，因此没有看到俄罗斯在总统弗拉基米尔·普京的领导下正在缓慢成长的明显迹象。同样，它也没有理解中国政府在南海或潜艇学位课程等情况下的真实意图。所有这些可以总结为，美国认为所有国际行为者都会遵守华盛顿在冷战后制定的规则，而没有想到他们会创造一个新的局面。总之，美国不了解自己的对手。

在他的最新一章中，Sciutto 明确表示，美国目前正在输掉这场战争。它最大的错误是没有意识到

直到它领先于我们，现在它发现自己处于不利地位。确实，美国在许多方面仍处于世界领先地位，但俄罗斯和中国正在其他方面超越它，遵循它们自己制定的新规则。然而，美国政策态度的改变可能会扭转局势。作者提出了一些可以帮助美国重新领先的解决方案。

他提出的解决方案首先侧重于对敌人及其战略的全面了解。这一直是他最大的劣势，也是开始控制地位的第一步。同样，它建议盟军集团内部更加团结，并改善自身的防御。他还建议更好地了解整个冲突发生的新情景，因此一系列规范这些新空间（如网络空间）的国际条约将大有帮助。此外，他建议对敌人的行动设定明确的限制，提高此类行动的成本和后果。最后，它鼓励美国发挥明确的领导作用。

总之，Sciutto 的论点是，美国发现自己正在打一场它刚刚才发现其存在的战争。这是一场它不习惯的战争，其规则也与它所宣扬的完全不同。虽然它仍然是当前国际体系的领导者，但它发现自己正在输掉这场游戏，因为中国和俄罗斯已经能够发现其对手的弱点并加以利用。美国最大的错误就是忽视这场影子战争的所有迹象，不采取任何行动。作者认为，新的场景已经出现，游戏规则也发生了变化，因此，如果美国想扭转局面，再次成为胜利者，就必须比以往任何时候都更加团结，加强联盟，比以往任何时候都更了解敌人及其意图。

就对这本书的评价而言，可以说它成功地简明扼要地传达了这场新竞赛中最相关的要点。它设法明确每个参与者的优势和劣势，并评估当前状况。然而，作者并没有过于客观地判断。在承认美国失败的同时，他对其竞争对手进行了负面评价，理所当然地认为谁是好人，谁是坏人。在某些情况下缺乏客观性，因为好人并不总是那么好，坏人也并不总是那么坏。话虽如此，Sciutto 对世界主要大国目前所处的国际地位进行了很好的分析。

Jim Sciutto, The Shadow War: Inside Russia's and China's Secret Operations to Defeat America.

America's perception of the 'Shadow War

https://en.unav.edu/web/global-affairs/detalle/-/blogs/la-percepcion-americana-sobre-la-guerra-en-la-sombra-

Jim Sciutto, The Shadow War: Inside Russia's and China's Secret Operations to Defeat America. Hasper-Collins. New York, 2019. 308 p.]

review / Álvaro de Lecea

With the end of the Cold War, which pitted the former Soviet Union against the victorious United States of America, the international system shifted from bipolar to a hegemony led by the latter. With the United States in the lead, the West focused on the spread of democracy and commercial globalisation, and if anything the geo-strategic preoccupation of the West was focused on the Al-Qaeda attacks on the Twin Towers on 9/11, so the focus of attention shifted and today's Russia was pushed into the background. However, Russia continued to slowly reconstitute itself in the shadow of its old enemy, which no longer showed much interest. Russia was joined by China, which began to grow by leaps and bounds. At this point, the United States began to realise that it had two major powers on its heels and that it was engaged in a war it did not even know existed: the Shadow War.

This is the term used by Jim Sciutto, CNN's chief national security correspondent, to describe what he describes in detail throughout his book and what has largely come to be known as hybrid or grey zone warfare. Sciutto prefers to speak of Shadow War, which could be translated as war in the shadows, because this better denotes its character of invisibility under the radar of open or conventional warfare.

This new war was started by Russia and China, not as allies, but as powers with a common enemy: the United States. It is a hybrid war subject and therefore contains both military and non-military methods. On the other hand, it does not envisage a direct military confrontation between the two blocs. In The Shadow War: Inside Russia's and China's Secret Operations to Defeat America, Sciutto explains seven situations in which the strategies being pursued by China and Russia to defeat the United States in order to become the world's major powers and impose their own international norms can be clearly observed.

First, it is important to note that Russia and China, while pursuing similar strategies, are different types of adversaries: on the one hand, China is a rising power, while Russia is more of a declining power that is trying to return to its former self. Nevertheless, both share a number of similarities. First, both seek to expand their influence in their own regions. Second, both are suffering from a crisis of legitimacy within their borders. Third, both seek to right the wrongs of history and restore what they perceive as their countries' legitimate positions as world leaders. And finally, they possess great national unity, so that the majority of their populations would do whatever is necessary for their nation.

In the shadow war, thanks to the rules established by Russia and China, any major actor can win, regardless of its power or influence over other international actors. Following the theories of International Office, these rules could be considered to follow a very realistic patron saint , since, in a way, anything goes to win. The power of lies and deception is the order of the day, and lines that were thought unthinkable are crossed. Examples of this, as the book explains and elaborates, are the militarisation of the artificial islands built by China in the South China Sea when Xi Jinping himself had promised not to do so, or the hacking of the Democratic Party's computer system in the 2016 US election campaign by Russian hackers, which may have helped Donald Trump emerge victorious.

To all this must be added an essential part of what is happening in this context of non-traditional warfare: the particularly mistaken idea that the United States has about everything that is happening. To begin with, the first mistake the US made, as Sciutto explains, was to neglect Russia as a relevant focus in the international arena. It believed that, having defeated it in the Cold War, the country would no longer re-emerge as a power, and so failed to see the clear clues that it was slowly growing, led by President Vladimir Putin. Similarly, it failed to understand the Chinese government's true intentions in situations such as the South China Sea or the degree program submarines. All of this can be summed up as the US believing that all international actors would play by the rules established by Washington after the Cold War, without imagining that they would create a new scenario. In conclusion, the US did not understand its opponents.

In his latest chapter, Sciutto makes it clear that the US is currently losing the war. Its biggest mistake was not realising status until it was in front of it and it now finds itself playing on a disadvantaged stage. It is true that the US remains the world leader in many respects, but Russia and China are overtaking it in others, following the new rules they themselves have set. However, a change of attitude in US policies could turn the tide. The author proposes a number of solutions that could help the US get back in the lead.

The solutions he proposes focus, in the first place, on the total knowledge of the enemy and its strategy. This has always been his great disadvantage and would be the first step to begin to control status. Similarly, it recommends greater unity within the Allied bloc, as well as an improvement of its own defences. He also recommends a better understanding of the new scenario in which the whole conflict is taking place, and therefore a series of international treaties regulating these new spaces, such as cyberspace, would be of great help financial aid. Further on, he proposes setting clear limits on enemy actions, raising the costs and consequences of such actions. Finally, it encourages the US to exercise clear leadership.

In conclusion, Sciutto's thesis is that the United States finds itself fighting a war whose existence it has only just discovered. It is a subject war that it is not used to and with a set of rules that are alien to what it preaches. While it is still the leader of the current international system, it finds itself losing the game because China and Russia have been able to discover its rival's weaknesses and use them to its advantage. America's biggest mistake was to ignore all the signs of this shadow war and do nothing about it. New scenarios have been introduced and the rules of the game have been changed, so the US, if it wants to turn status around and once again emerge as the victor, the author argues, will have to unite more than ever internally as a nation and strengthen its alliances, and know its enemies and their intentions better than ever before.

In terms of a evaluation of the book, it can be said that it succeeds in concisely and clearly conveying the most relevant points of this new contest. It manages to make clear the strengths and weaknesses of each actor and to take stock of the current status . However, the author does not manage to be too goal judgemental. While admitting the failings of the US, he gives a negative picture of its rivals, taking for granted who are the good guys and who are the bad guys. Objectivity is lacking in some cases, as the good guys are not always so good and the bad guys are not always so bad. That said, Sciutto provides a great analysis of the current international status in which the world's major powers find themselves.