Jayant Bhandari 印度没有未来

Jayant Bhandari 印度没有未来

YouTube视频：

中英 贾杨特班达里海外高印看印度：这个国家没有未来Jayant Bhandari Indian looking at India: no future for this country

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FrIelllFjM8

YouTube  2024年7月9日

问

你最初来自印度，你现在住在哪里?

答

我主要在旧金山，我住在那里。

问

我看过你的一些采访，我看过你的一些采访，你对印度的看法，所以告诉我一些关于印度文化、商业、这个国家商业方面的情况，因为你知道，作为投资者，我们听说了来自中国的重大转变，你知道很多公司正在将制造业转移到印度，告诉我们为什么会这样，告诉我们你对这种趋势的看法？

答

总的来说，总有公司从中国转移到印度，但几乎没有人真正完成这个过程，他们谈论它，但他们做不到，他们很快受到伤害，他们意识到他们错过了一些东西，他们改变了他们的行动速度非常快，所以显然人们对印度抱有极大的热情，现在国际媒体、很多基金、很多公司都认为印度是如今应该去的地方，因为他们认为印??度为他们提供了非常高的增长机会，而大多数人会受到严重伤害，他们会失去资金，他们会自食恶果，因为没有什么比在印度投资更好的了，我看到数十家公司在印度开设业务和办事处，我也参与过其中的几家，他们几乎总是亏损，因为印度是一个极其困难的地方，出于许多原因，该国完全缺乏职业道德，技能的缺乏显而易见，政府从最顶层到最底层都是贪婪和腐败的，唯一有效的办法是政府就是关系和金钱，呃，没有基础设施，基础设施状况很糟糕，他们应该建造大量的基础设施，但后来桥梁倒塌，火车事故频发，因为一切都有缺陷，50% 到 80% 的资金本应该投入基础设施，却流进了官僚和政客的口袋，所以我完全看不到那个国家的未来，布莱克，我发现现在这么多人如此迷恋印度，这真的很有趣。

问

是的，所以你知道，我花了很多年时间，我们在香港有一个办公室，我亲眼目睹了中国过去 20 多年的发展，从投资的角度，通过市场观察它，看到它的发展，那么，你知道，两者之间的脱节在哪里中国和印度的相似之处是，它真的只是从政治上层开始的，

答

你知道政府运作良好的方式是问题的征兆，真正的问题是印度人自己，正如你所看到的，这种脱节在 70 年代末 80 年代初开始出现在金融经济方面，当时印度的人均 GDP 可能高于中国，所以印度是当时更倾向于向印度靠拢的国家，当时印度人说英语，也听得懂英语，而中国人当时真的不懂英语，所以世界在 80 年代初认为下一个新兴市场将是印度，然后你看到了从 80 年代初到今天发生了什么，中国人均经济大约是印度的 5.5 倍，所以中国在过去三十年左右发展迅速，而印度却未能嗯，现在任何意义上的中国都赶不上世界了，布莱克，说实话，谁拿中国和印度比较，谁就对这两个国家一无所知，嗯，从印度的角度来看，中国是第一世界国家，嗯，中国有基础设施，中国有大量高质量的高技能制造单位，那里的人们有职业道德，我最近在中国待了大约两个半星期，我每年都会去中国好几次，我爱那个国家，我总是可以想象自己在中国生活，实际上，我实际上正在考虑每年在中国呆几个月，而你可以给我十亿美元，却不能说服我住在印度，这就是印度的彻底地狱和洞穴，我用第二个词，嗯，不只是比喻，而是字面意思，因为一半的印度人口实际上把露天用作厕所，所以这就是印度的情况是这样的，你总是要问自己，为什么印度未能从所有这些向中国转让的技术中获益，为什么印度完全未能从中获益，除非你理解这一点，我再说一遍，理解为什么印度在过去 30 年里失败了，如果你不能解释为什么印度在过去 30 年里未能赶上中国， 实际上超过或打赌会比中国更好，你真的不明白印度的未来是什么，

问

你的说法很迷人，所以我想问你，那么你知道客观地说，你认为印度还有未来吗？根据你的观点，在印度投资目前还有未来吗？

答

所以我不投资印度，我曾经关注过一位基金经理的印度投资组合，我卖掉了那只基金里的所有东西，我卖掉了我在那个国家拥有的所有东西，我完全看不到印度的未来，印度在过去的近三四年五年里一直停滞不前，如果你忽略他们一直在大规模建设基础设施的事实，增加国内生产总值，而政府实际上却陷入了巨额债务和基础设施，而这些基础设施实际上并没有为公民创造经济价值，所以如果你把所有这些加在一起，印度在过去三年里实际上一直停滞不前四五年了，我完全看不出印度会做得更好的理由，事实上，我有理由相信印度正在成为下一个巴基斯坦，所以忘掉中国吧，印度正在成为下一个巴基斯坦，也就是说，它现在正走向内爆，如果你愿意的话，我可以很高兴地向你解释为什么国际媒体如此兴奋，但事实是，任何客观地走在印度街头的人都知道，印度没有未来，除非这个人政治正确，在这种情况下，他无法把这些点联系起来，即使他把这些点联系起来，他也拒绝在回到西方后发表他的观点，因为他不想抱怨世界上最大的民主国家，也不想抱怨棕色人种

well and so you originally from India
and and where do you where do you reside
nowadays well I'm mostly in San
Francisco that's where my I live in okay
all right and and um you you know I've
seen some of your interviews and I I've
seen some of your interviews into your
opinions about India so tell me a little
bit about India the culture the business
uh business side of the the country
because you know as in investors we've
heard this big shift from from China and
uh you know a lot of companies are
moving manufacturing over to India tell
us why that is and tell us what your
opinion is of that as a as a trend as a
whole well there are always companies
moving shifting from China to India but
hardly anyone ever actually completes
the process they talk about it but they
don't do it when they do it they get
hurt very quickly and they realize that
there's something that they missed out
on and they revers their action very
quickly as well so there is clearly a
huge amount of euphoria about India
right now the international media a lot
of funds a lot of companies think that
India is the place to move to these days
because they think India offers them a
very high growth rate opportunity and
most of these people will get bad hurt
they will lose their monies and they
they will burn themselves because
there's nothing like investing in India
I have seen tens and tens of companies
opening their operations and offices uh
in India and I have been involved in a
few of those and virtually always they
lose money because India is an
extraordinarily difficult Place uh from
many for many many reasons there is a
complete lack of work ethic in that
country skills are conspicuous by their
absence U the government is uh from the
very top the very very top to the very
very bottom um utterly venal and corrupt
the only thing that works in the
government is connections and money uh
there is no infrastruct infrastructure
is in a horrible shape they are
supposedly constructing a huge amount of
infrastructure but then bridges are
falling apart train accident are
happening because everything has a
shorty equality with 50 to 80% of the
money that was that is supposed to go
into the infrastructure going into the
back pocket of bureaucrats and
politicians so the the I see absolutely
no future in that country and I find it
truly amusing Blake that so many people
are so enamored by India these days yeah
so you know I I I I spent a many years
um we had an office in in in Hong Kong
and I got to watch single-handedly or
personally rather uh you know the the
evolution of China over the last 20
years plus um from a investment
standpoint from watching it uh via the
markets and seeing it evolve so where is
the disconnect between you know the the
the the parallels between China and and
India is it really it just starts from
the top politically you know the way
that the government has
run well government is a symptom of the
problem the real problem is Indians
themselves um and the disconnect as you
can see it started happening in
financial economic terms in the in the
late 70s early 80s when uh GDP of GDP
per capita of India was likely higher
than that of China so India was the
country to move to those days a lot more
Indians spoke English and understood
English those days Chinese did not
really understand English at that point
of time so the world thought in um early
80s that the next Emerging Market would
be India uh and then you saw what
happened U from early 80s to today
Chinese economy on per capita basis is
about 5.5 times that of India so China
has grown rapidly over the last three
decades or so whereas India has failed
to um to catch up with China in any
sense of the world now anyone Blake to
be very honest who Compares China with
India is clueless about the two
countries uh China is a first world
country when you look at it from the
perspective of India um China has
infrastructure China has a massive good
quality High Skilled Manufacturing units
it has people who have work ethic and I
have recently been in China for about
two and a half weeks and I go multiple
times a year to China I love that
country and I can always um imagine
living myself in China actually I was
I'm actually thinking of spending a
couple of months every year in China
whereas you can give me a billion
dollars and cannot convince me to live
in India that is how utterly
um utter hellhole and a hole India
is and I'm using the second word uh not
just figuratively but literally because
half of the Indian population actually
uses the open as toilets so that's the
the kind of U situation India has you
always have to ask yourself why did
India fail to um benefit from all these
lwh hanging fruit all the technology
transfer that was happening to China why
did India completely fail to benefit
from it and unless you have understood
that and and I repeat understand why
India failed in the last 30 years and if
you cannot explain why India failed in
the last 30 years to catch up with China
or actually exceed or bet be better than
China you don't really understand what
the future is for for for India that is
uh fascinating so I I'm G to ask you
then um you know
objectively uh do do you think there is
any future for India and investment in
India at this point in time based on
your views so I don't invest in India I
I used to follow the Indian portfolio of
a of a fund manager at one point of time
and I sold everything in that fund I
sold I I sold everything I owned in that
country I see absolutely no future of
India I India has been stagnating for
the last Almost 3 four five years uh if
you ignore
the if you ignore the fact that they
have been building infrastructure at a
massive Pace adding to the GDP while the
government is actually getting into into
massive debt and infrastructure that
actually does not produce economic value
for the citizenry so if you add all
these things together India is actually
stagnating for the last three four five
years and I see absolutely no reason why
India will do better in fact I'm
reasonably confident that India is
becoming the next Pakistan so forget
about China India is becoming the next
Pakistan which is that it is marching
towards an implosion now if you want I
can happily explain to you why there's
so much Euphoria in the international
media but the fact remains that anyone
who has objectively walked the street in
India knows that India has no future ex
except if that person is politically
correct in which case he fails to
connect the dots and if even if he
connects the dots refuses to uh give his
views after returning to the West
because he does not want to be
complaining about the biggest democracy
in the world and complain about brown
people