John Mearsheimer 对富裕国家 必须杀戮

印度富了可能成為最強大國家?! 改變中美俄關係?!【國際360】20240730??

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V69qnTK-s3s

YouTube 2024年7月30日

John Mearsheimer and Peter Varghese speak at the Centre for Independent Studies on In Depth Q&A: Mearsheimer and Varghese disagree on US Grand Strategy, Ukraine, Russia and China.

完整影片來源 The Centre for Independent Studies ?@CISAus? Video source: The Centre for Independent Studies ?@CISAus?

非常感谢今晚的活动，非常精彩，我只是想听听你的看法，约翰，你经常谈论人口数量之类的事情，彼得，这也是为你准备的，印度如何开始改变力量平衡，预计其人口将超过中国，其经济增长强劲，你知道这会如何改变，你知道你谈到了美国、中国、俄罗斯的秩序，印度如何开始改变这一点，然后如果亚洲是主要焦点，印度的崛起将如何改变该地区的力量平衡，非常感谢.

约翰·米尔斯海默

权力的两个主要根源是人口规模和财富，如果你看看中国，中国一直拥有庞大的人口规模，但我们在冷战期间并不认为中国是一个大国，记得当时是一个两极体系，美国和苏联，而不是中国，我们在单极时代并不认为中国是一个大国。我们现在认为中国是一个大国，发生了什么，人口规模基本保持不变，变化的是中国变得富裕了。

这又回到了关于印度尼西亚的问题，印度尼西亚不是一个富裕的国家，不像今天的中国或美国那样，如果印度尼西亚突然变成了一个新的中国，变得非常富裕，澳大利亚人会非常担心印度尼西亚，因为根据我的计算，每个澳大利亚人对应大约 10 个印度尼西亚人，甚至更多，他们就在隔壁，但他们并不富裕，这对你有好处，这就是为什么当中国不富裕时，这对我们有好处，但我们帮助它富裕起来，这又回到了印度，印度还不够富裕，不足以成为一个大国，如果它真的变得富裕，拥有那样的人口规模，哦，天哪，它可能是地球上最强大的国家。

thanks so much for tonight's event it's
been fantastic I just wanted to get your
perspective John you talk so much about
population numbers and things like that
and Peter this will be for you as well
how does India start to change the
balance of power its population is
projected to be larger than China its
economic growth is you know strong how
will that change you know you spoke
about that order United States China
Russia how does India begin to change
that and then if Asia is the primary
focus how does India's emergence change
that balance of power in that area
thanks so much 
<<<<<>>>>>>
John Mearsheimer
the two principal tap roots of Power are
population size and wealth and if you
look at China China has always had a
huge population size but we did not
consider China a great power during the
Cold War remember it was a bipolar
system the United States and the Soviet
Union not China we did not consider
China a great power during the unipolar
moment there was only one great power
the United States we now consider China
a great power what happened the
population size remained basically
constant what changed was China became
wealthy this gets back to the question
about Indonesia Indonesia is not a
wealthy country the way that China is
today or the way that the United States
is if Indonesia all of a sudden turns
into uh a new China and it gets very
wealthy you are Australians will worry
greatly about Indonesia cuz according to
my calculations there are about 10
Indonesians for every Australian more if
not more and they're right next door but
they're not wealthy and that's good for
you right and that's why it was good for
us when China was not wealthy but we
helped make it wealthy and this gets
back to India just very quickly India is
not wealthy enough to to to qualify as a
great power if it does get wealthy with
that population size oh boy it'll
probably be the most powerful State on
the planet