John Mearsheimer 尼克森和季辛吉是對的

米爾斯海默精闢道從頭 尼克森和季辛吉是對的

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luVDOZi3lFA&ab_channel=

如果你看看美國自2017年以來如何應對中國，當時唐納川普拋棄了接觸政策並將美國轉向遏制政策。如果你看看自那時以來我們的表現，與1945年後美國政策制定者對蘇聯作為歐洲威脅的反應方式非常相似，我不認為40年代後期和50年代初期掌權的那些政策制定者在每個轉折點都是正確的，但總的來說他們在遏制蘇聯方面做得非常出色，他們創建了北約，建立了必要的軍事力量來遏制蘇聯。

正如我之前所說 他們避免了美國和蘇聯在歐洲之間的衝突，這將是一場徹底的災難。所以他們做得很好， 但不是完美無缺，如果你看看美國自2017年以來的表現當然也存在一些問題。

但總的來說，美國在應對中國方面做得很好，我們將繼續做好這一點。烏克蘭和俄羅斯是非常不同的問題，我傾向於認為，如果40年代後期和50年代初期，掌權的政策制定者當時在場，當我們越來越深地捲入烏克蘭時，他們會避免問題發生。我們就不會陷入今天這種困境，非常重要的是要理解中國對美國的威脅遠遠大於俄羅斯，在這樣世界裡，最重要的是美國全面轉向亞洲，而不是在東歐陷入一場對戰略力量平衡影響甚微的戰爭。

此外，從美國的角度來看，從現實主義的角度來看，你希望俄羅斯人站在你這邊對抗中國人，你不希望把俄羅斯人推向中國人的懷抱，記住，在當前體系中，你有三個大國，美國、中國和俄羅斯。如果你是美國，你的主要競爭對手是中國，你希望俄羅斯人站在你這邊，但烏克蘭戰爭把俄羅斯人推向了中國人的懷抱，這使得美國很難全面轉向亞洲應對其主要競爭對手。

在冷戰初期 你應該記得美國同時把中國和蘇聯視為對手，我們從1972年尼克森總統開始做的是把中國從蘇聯那裡拉開，中國成為美國對抗蘇聯的盟友，這在戰略上非常有意義。我們本應該早在1972年之前，就與中國建立良好關係，這樣我們就不會幫助推動中國和俄羅斯或中國和蘇聯更加親近，這是我對烏克蘭的基本想法，我傾向於以非常不同的方式來看待它，與美國自2017年以來對中國的政策不同。
I think if you look at how the United
States has dealt with China since
2017 When Donald Trump jettison the
policy of Engagement and moved the
United States towards a policy of
containment if you look at how we have
behaved since then I think it is
remarkably similar uh to how the policy
makers in the United States reacted to
the Soviet Union as threat in Europe
after
1945 uh I I don't think uh that those
policy makers who were in charge in the
late 40s and early 50s were right at
every turn I think by and large they did
an excellent job of containing the
Soviet Union they created NATO they
built the necessary military forces to
contain the Soviet Union and as I said
before they avoided a conflict uh
between the United States in and the
Soviet Union in Europe which would have
been a total disaster so they did a fine
job but not a perfect job and I think if
you look at the United States since 2017
there surely have been some bumps along
the road but uh I think by and large the
United States has done a good job of
dealing with China and I think we will
continue to do a good job Ukraine and
Russia is a very different isue very
different issue I tend to think that had
the policy makers who were in charge in
the late late 40s and early 50s been
around uh when we were getting deeper
and deeper into Ukraine they would have
avoided it and we would not be in the
mess that we're in today uh I think um
it's very important to understand that
China is a much greater threat to the
United States than Russia is and in a
world like that it's most important that
the United States pivot fully to Asia
and not get bogged down in a war in
Eastern Europe that matters little for
the Strategic balance of power right and
furthermore from an American point of
view from a realist point of view you
want the Russians on your side against
the Chinese you don't want to drive the
Russians into the arms of the Chinese
remember you have three great powers in
the present system the United States
China and Russia and in a world where
you're the United States and your
principal rival is China you want the
Russians on your side of the Ledger but
the Ukraine war has pushed the Russians
into the arms of the Chinese and it's
made it very difficult for the United
States to Pivot fully to Asia to deal
with its principal rival and to give you
an example John that I think illustrates
the problem here in the early part of
the cold War as you well remember the
United States had both China and the
Soviet Union as
adversaries what we did starting in 1972
under President Nixon was we peeled the
Chinese off from the Soviets and the
Chinese became allies of the United
States against the Soviet Union that
made eminently good strategic sense and
what we should have done long before 197
2 was worked to have decent relations
with the Chinese so we didn't help to
push the Chinese and the Russians or
Chinese and the Soviets closer together
so that's my basic thinking about
Ukraine which I tend to look at in a
very different way than American policy
towards China since 2017