米爾斯海默精闢道從頭 尼克森和季辛吉是對的 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luVDOZi3lFA&ab_channel= 如果你看看美國自2017年以來如何應對中國,當時唐納川普拋棄了接觸政策並將美國轉向遏制政策。如果你看看自那時以來我們的表現,與1945年後美國政策制定者對蘇聯作為歐洲威脅的反應方式非常相似,我不認為40年代後期和50年代初期掌權的那些政策制定者在每個轉折點都是正確的,但總的來說他們在遏制蘇聯方面做得非常出色,他們創建了北約,建立了必要的軍事力量來遏制蘇聯。 正如我之前所說 他們避免了美國和蘇聯在歐洲之間的衝突,這將是一場徹底的災難。所以他們做得很好, 但不是完美無缺,如果你看看美國自2017年以來的表現當然也存在一些問題。 但總的來說,美國在應對中國方面做得很好,我們將繼續做好這一點。烏克蘭和俄羅斯是非常不同的問題,我傾向於認為,如果40年代後期和50年代初期,掌權的政策制定者當時在場,當我們越來越深地捲入烏克蘭時,他們會避免問題發生。我們就不會陷入今天這種困境,非常重要的是要理解中國對美國的威脅遠遠大於俄羅斯,在這樣世界裡,最重要的是美國全面轉向亞洲,而不是在東歐陷入一場對戰略力量平衡影響甚微的戰爭。 此外,從美國的角度來看,從現實主義的角度來看,你希望俄羅斯人站在你這邊對抗中國人,你不希望把俄羅斯人推向中國人的懷抱,記住,在當前體系中,你有三個大國,美國、中國和俄羅斯。如果你是美國,你的主要競爭對手是中國,你希望俄羅斯人站在你這邊,但烏克蘭戰爭把俄羅斯人推向了中國人的懷抱,這使得美國很難全面轉向亞洲應對其主要競爭對手。 在冷戰初期 你應該記得美國同時把中國和蘇聯視為對手,我們從1972年尼克森總統開始做的是把中國從蘇聯那裡拉開,中國成為美國對抗蘇聯的盟友,這在戰略上非常有意義。我們本應該早在1972年之前,就與中國建立良好關係,這樣我們就不會幫助推動中國和俄羅斯或中國和蘇聯更加親近,這是我對烏克蘭的基本想法,我傾向於以非常不同的方式來看待它,與美國自2017年以來對中國的政策不同。 I think if you look at how the United States has dealt with China since 2017 When Donald Trump jettison the policy of Engagement and moved the United States towards a policy of containment if you look at how we have behaved since then I think it is remarkably similar uh to how the policy makers in the United States reacted to the Soviet Union as threat in Europe after 1945 uh I I don't think uh that those policy makers who were in charge in the late 40s and early 50s were right at every turn I think by and large they did an excellent job of containing the Soviet Union they created NATO they built the necessary military forces to contain the Soviet Union and as I said before they avoided a conflict uh between the United States in and the Soviet Union in Europe which would have been a total disaster so they did a fine job but not a perfect job and I think if you look at the United States since 2017 there surely have been some bumps along the road but uh I think by and large the United States has done a good job of dealing with China and I think we will continue to do a good job Ukraine and Russia is a very different isue very different issue I tend to think that had the policy makers who were in charge in the late late 40s and early 50s been around uh when we were getting deeper and deeper into Ukraine they would have avoided it and we would not be in the mess that we're in today uh I think um it's very important to understand that China is a much greater threat to the United States than Russia is and in a world like that it's most important that the United States pivot fully to Asia and not get bogged down in a war in Eastern Europe that matters little for the Strategic balance of power right and furthermore from an American point of view from a realist point of view you want the Russians on your side against the Chinese you don't want to drive the Russians into the arms of the Chinese remember you have three great powers in the present system the United States China and Russia and in a world where you're the United States and your principal rival is China you want the Russians on your side of the Ledger but the Ukraine war has pushed the Russians into the arms of the Chinese and it's made it very difficult for the United States to Pivot fully to Asia to deal with its principal rival and to give you an example John that I think illustrates the problem here in the early part of the cold War as you well remember the United States had both China and the Soviet Union as adversaries what we did starting in 1972 under President Nixon was we peeled the Chinese off from the Soviets and the Chinese became allies of the United States against the Soviet Union that made eminently good strategic sense and what we should have done long before 197 2 was worked to have decent relations with the Chinese so we didn't help to push the Chinese and the Russians or Chinese and the Soviets closer together so that's my basic thinking about Ukraine which I tend to look at in a very different way than American policy towards China since 2017 |