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杰弗里·萨克斯：“美国和欧洲从来都不是非洲可靠的合作伙伴”
https://www.classfmonline.com/business/Jeffrey-Sachs-US-Europe-never-been-reliable-partners-for-Africa-48525
杰弗里·萨克斯 2024 年 1 月 10 日
杰弗里·萨克斯
以“宏观经济休克疗法”而闻名的美国经济学家杰弗里·萨克斯在一本关于可持续发展目标的新书中转向伦理学。
在此，他阐述了非洲联盟、金砖四国和其他大陆机构必须如何引领发展中国家建立新的金融架构。
以4%的相对较低利率重新安排非洲国家的债务期限30年； 向富裕国家征税，不仅因为它们“对气候变化的历史责任”，而且还因为“窃取非洲的资源”：美国经济学家、哥伦比亚大学教授杰弗里·萨克斯（Jeffrey Sachs）在哥伦比亚大学担任可持续发展中心的负责人。 国际经济界以其直接且往往大胆的公式而闻名。
前联合国秘书长特别顾问（2001 年至 2018 年）、畅销书《贫困的终结》（2005 年）的作者，因其在发展中国家实施宏观经济休克疗法中的作用而闻名。
他也是对抗世界饥饿、文盲以及最近的环境退化问题的专家。
萨克斯于 2022 年 12 月出版了他与几位学者合着的最新著作《可持续发展的伦理实践》，书中提供了不同信仰的宗教领袖与跨学科研究人员和实践者之间的深入对话，以寻求一种伦理道德。 就如何实现可持续发展目标（SDG）达成共识。
在这次采访中，这位市场经济的捍卫者对非洲大陆的现状及其前景做出了诊断——非洲在全球化世界中，并应对其自身的挑战。
杰弗里·萨克斯：世界在实现可持续发展目标方面远远落后。 主要问题是财务问题之一。 可持续发展目标是教育、医疗保健、零碳能源、可持续农业、城市基础设施和数字经济领域的投资议程。 这六种投资类别需要花钱，但世界上较贫穷的一半国家（低收入和中低收入国家）需要更多的融资来实现可持续发展目标。
我们需要对全球金融架构进行根本性改革。 非洲联盟在 G21 中的成员身份（于 2023 年被接纳为新成员）对于新金融架构的谈判非常重要，金砖国家（主要新兴市场和发展中国家的伙伴关系）也将如此。
那么，金砖国家决定于2023年在约翰内斯堡扩大国家范围，您认为这是积极的吗？
我是金砖国家的坚定支持者。 我确实希望他们能够很好地合作，特别是中国和印度，因为如果这样的话，金砖国家将有助于建立一个更加公平的世界。
非洲国家如何平衡经济发展与环境可持续性的需求，特别是面对气候变化的挑战？
非洲需要大量资金来应对损失和损害以及适应。 这应该以富裕国家支付的形式出现，资金来源是对富裕国家碳排放征收的全球税。 损失和损害赔偿基金现已设立。 美国投入了 1750 万美元，相当于五角大楼 9 分钟的开支。 美国的傲慢无边无际。 美国每年应缴纳约 250 亿美元的税，即每吨二氧化碳排放量约 5 美元。
您认为外国援助在促进非洲经济发展方面发挥了什么作用？
对外援助发挥的作用不大。 富裕国家提供的财政支持太少。 这些富裕国家不应该称之为援助，而应该根据其对气候变化和滥用全球体系的历史责任来征税——例如窃取非洲的资源和殖民主义的罪恶、政权更迭行动、政治暗杀等。 美国和欧洲列强对卢蒙巴、卡扎菲等人的制裁。
据世界银行统计，自 1960 年以来，已有 1.5 万亿美元的公共发展援助流向非洲。如何优化这些援助以获得更有效的成果？
正如我所说，全球金融架构需要大规模革新，以便资本从富国流向穷国。 部分原因是降低美元在全球交易中的主导地位。 金砖国家将帮助实现这一目标。
非洲主要需要两件事：作为非洲联盟的内部团结，以及与中国、印度、阿拉伯国家和拉丁美洲的良好外交关系。
您因在 20 世纪 90 年代末在布雷顿森林机构中的不妥协立场而闻名。 您认为世界银行和国际货币基金组织 2023 年 10 月在马拉喀什表达的变革意愿是真诚的吗？
美国正在抵制国际货币基金组织和世界银行的真正改革
因为真正的改革意味着中国、印度、俄罗斯和其他国家将获得更多的投票权。 欧洲将失去投票权，美国将失去否决权。 这些变化将以某种方式影响国际体系。
您如何看待越来越多的非洲国家正在摆脱与西方（主要是美国和欧洲）的历史联系，例如为了俄罗斯的利益？
我认为非洲需要两件主要的事情。 首先，非洲联盟内部团结，拥有单一市场和在内部连接非洲所有地区的实体基础设施（公路、铁路、光纤、电网）。 其次，非洲需要与中国、印度、阿拉伯国家和拉美地区建立良好的外交关系。
美国和欧洲从来都不是非洲可靠和强有力的合作伙伴。 太多的贪婪、自私和帝国遗产的玷污。 也许这会改变。 它需要改变。
债务是 2024 年非洲面临的最大挑战之一。您建议采取哪些可持续债务管理和减免战略，以促进经济稳定和增长？
陷入债务困境的国家账上的所有债务都应以 4% 的固定利率（以美元计）延长 30 年。 这应该适用于欠世界银行、国际货币基金组织、区域开发银行和双边债权人的债务。 只要有可能（取决于集体行动条款的条款），各国还应重组其 30 年期私人债券。 未来，所有开发融资的期限应至少为30年。
您是否像世界银行那样认为 2024 年将是非洲债务违约之年？ 继赞比亚、加纳之后……埃及、索马里、突尼斯等地也存在一些风险。
正如我所说，所有这些国家的债务重组都应该持续至少30年。
与此同时，撒哈拉以南非洲地区正在为今年经济增长的小幅增长做准备。 非洲经济如何利用技术和创新来刺激增长并解决失业和收入不平等等问题？
每个还没有国家科学技术基金的非洲国家都应立即设立国家科学技术基金，支持至少占国内生产总值1%的研究和开发。 无论是最贫穷的国家还是最富裕的国家都应该如此。
非洲需要教育复兴。 这首先是为每个孩子提供公费的教育机会。
非盟一开始也应该在联盟层面设立一项基金，规模至少为每年250亿美元。 非洲需要在人工智能、疾病、生态、气候、农业等广泛的主题上进行自己的研发。
鉴于最近 Covid-19 大流行的经验，非洲国家应采取哪些步骤来加强其医疗保健系统并加强大流行病的防备？
非洲的医疗保健系统应以社区卫生服务为基础，并由人工智能和数字系统支持社区卫生工作者。
远程医疗可以极大地加强服务提供。 欧洲和中东的外籍医生应该在一年中的部分时间返回非洲提供公共服务。
这不是太理想化了吗？
我想更进一步：他们在美国、欧洲和中东缴纳的税款应该汇到非洲，以帮助支付医疗费用。
教育在经济转型中发挥什么作用？非洲国家如何改进教育体系以满足快速变化的全球经济的需求？
教育是非洲最重要的投资。 基本标准应该是：100%的儿童完成高中教育。 至少 30% 完成高中教育的儿童应该继续攻读学士学位。 非洲需要教育复兴。 这首先是为每个孩子提供公费的教育机会。 如有必要，非洲国家应承担新的长期债务，以确保普及中等教育。
青年失业是许多非洲国家面临的重大挑战。 您建议采取哪些策略来为年轻人创造有意义的就业机会？
教育和技能，然后是充满活力的经济，在公共和私营部门雇用受过良好教育和高技能的年轻人。 不过，关键是技能。
私营部门也应该参与非洲大陆的经济发展。 哪些政策可以鼓励非洲大陆负责任的商业行为？
私营部门将在四个条件下快速、动态地扩张：训练有素的劳动力； 良好的基础设施，特别是电力、数字、水利、铁路和公路； 单一的非洲市场，货物可以在整个非洲快速且免关税运输； 与中国、印度、拉丁美洲、土耳其、阿拉伯国家以及金砖国家开放投资关系。
您在多大程度上相信区域一体化和合作
非洲国家间的合作对于可持续经济发展至关重要？
非洲团结至关重要。 非洲有 14 亿人口，到 2050 年将达到 25 亿左右。这是一个巨大、年轻、充满活力的市场。 单一市场将是非洲未来发展的巨大 — — 实际上是至关重要的 — — 推动力。
在此背景下，非洲经济如何确保经济增长的包容性，惠及广大人民并减少收入不平等？
同样，这里有几个关键条件：普遍获得优质教育； 普遍获得公共医疗保健； 普遍获得优质城市基础设施； 健全的退休金制度以保障退休收入； 和平; 结束对妇女和少数群体的歧视； 为有幼儿、残疾人、贫困人口和老年人的家庭提供社会保护。
非洲2023-2063年的发展轨迹可以像中国1980-2020年的发展轨迹一样。 非洲具备快速增长时期的条件。
所有这一切都需要强有力的预算和可靠的税收，以及富裕国家与其历史义务相称的付款。
数字经济难道不能在促进非洲的金融包容性和经济赋权方面发挥作用吗？ 哪些政策可以促进这一转变？
数字经济是全球发展的重要均衡器。 印度随着在支付、政府服务、教育、医疗保健和其他活动中部署数字技术而蓬勃发展。
非洲需要坚实的光纤网络、与全球骨干网的强大连接、5G以及大力支持数字经济的非盟领导力。
您建议非洲国家采取哪些战略来从 Covid-19 大流行的影响中恢复经济并增强抵御未来危机的能力？
非洲需要一个40年计划，即2023-2063年，以便到2063年成为高收入地区，并成为世界经济的主要组成部分。 这个有可能。 非洲2023-2063年的发展轨迹可以像中国1980-2020年的发展轨迹一样。 非洲具备快速增长时期的条件。 为了实现这一目标，非洲需要沿着我之前概述的六个优先领域转向高投资模式。 教育和技能将成为非洲经济活力最重要的引擎。
农业也是许多非洲经济体的重要部门。 这些国家如何实现农业转型，以加强粮食安全并促进经济增长？
农业现在是一个高技能、资本密集、信息密集的部门。 非洲需要部署机械化、人工智能、大数据、灌溉、农作物新品种等，实现农业升级。 随着机器和人工智能取代低技能农业工人，农业劳动力的比例将大幅下降。 没关系。 大多数工作的未来都在城市，而不是农村地区。 未来非洲的城市化将会非常迅速。
非洲国家如何解决腐败问题并改善治理，创造有利于经济可持续发展的环境？
腐败的关键是透明度、在线政府系统、数字经济和训练有素的公务员队伍。 此外，跨国公司需要诚实纳税。 大部分腐败发生在采矿和碳氢化合物行业。 应特别关注这些国际部门，因为它们非常滥用权力，并向政府官员行贿。
Jeffrey Sachs: 'US, Europe never been reliable partners for Africa'
Jeffrey Sachs January 10, 2024
Jeffrey SachsHere, he expounds on how the African Union, the BRICs and other continental bodies must lead the push towards a new financial architecture for developing countries.
Reschedule the debts of African countries over a period of 30 years, at a relatively low rate of 4%; tax rich countries for their “historical responsibility for climate change”, but also for “stealing Africa’s resources”: The American economist Jeffrey Sachs, a professor at Columbia University, where he heads the Center for Sustainable Development, has made a name for himself in the international economic community with his direct and often bold formulas.
The former special adviser to the secretaries-general of the United Nations (from 2001 to 2018) and author of the best-selling The End of Poverty (2005) is renowned for his role in implementing macroeconomic shock therapy in developing countries.
He is also a specialist in the fight against world hunger, illiteracy and, more recently, environmental degradation.
In his latest book, published in December 2022, Ethics in Action for Sustainable Development, which he co-wrote with several academics, Sachs offers an in-depth conversation between religious leaders of different faiths and interdisciplinary researchers and practitioners, in search of an ethical consensus on how to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).
In this interview, the champion of the market economy gives his diagnosis of the state of the continent and its prospects – for Africa in a globalised world, and tackling its own challenges.
Jeffrey Sachs: The world is lagging far behind in achieving the SDGs. The main question is one of finance. The SDGs are an investment agenda, in education, healthcare, zero-carbon energy, sustainable agriculture, urban infrastructure and the digital economy. These six investment categories cost money, but the poorer half of the world – the low-income and lower-middle income countries – needs much more financing to achieve the SDGs.
We need a fundamental overhaul of the global financial architecture. The African Union’s membership in the G21 [it was admitted as a new member in 2023] will be very important in negotiating a new financial architecture, so too will be the BRICS [a partnership of leading emerging markets and developing countries].
You see it as positive, then, that the BRICS decided to enlarge its sphere of countries in Johannesburg in 2023?
I’m a strong supporter of the BRICS. I do hope that they can work well together, especially China and India, because if so, the BRICS will help to make a much fairer world.
How can African?nations balance economic?development?with?the need?for environmental?sustainability, especially?in the face of climate-change challenges??
Africa needs substantial financing for losses and damages and for adaptation. This should come in the form of payments from the rich countries, funded by global taxes on carbon emissions of the rich countries. The Losses and Damages Fund has now been established. The US put in $17.5m, equal to nine minutes of Pentagon spending. The US arrogance knows no bounds. The US should be taxed for around $25bn per year, roughly $5 per ton of CO2 emission.
In your view, what?role?does?foreign?aid?play?in fostering?economic?development?in Africa?
Foreign aid plays a modest role. There is far too little financial support from rich countries. Rather than call it aid, these rich countries should be taxed in line with their historical responsibility for climate change and for the abuses of the global system – such as stealing Africa’s resources and the sins of colonialism, regime-change operations, political assassinations such as those of Lumumba, Gaddafi, etc., by the US and European powers.
According to the World Bank, $1.5trn of public development aid has gone to Africa since 1960. How can this aid be?optimised?for more effective outcomes??
As I was saying, the global financial architecture needs a massive renovation so that capital flows from rich to poor countries. Part of this will be to reduce the dominant role of the US dollar in global transactions. BRICS will help make that happen.
Africa needs two main things: internal unity as the African Union, and good diplomatic relations with China, India, the Arab states and Latin America.
You are known for your uncompromising position on the Bretton Woods institutions, in which you worked at the end of the 1990s. Do you think the will to change that the World Bank and IMF expressed in Marrakech in October 2023 is genuine?
The US is resisting real reform of the IMF and the World Bank because real reform would mean that China, India, Russia and other countries would gain much more voting weight. Europe would lose its voting weight, the US would lose its veto power. These changes will come to the international system, one way or another.
What do you think of the fact?that?more and more African?countries are breaking off their?historical?attachments?to?the West (the US and Europe mostly),?to the benefit?of Russia,?for example?
I think that Africa needs two main things. First, internal unity as the African Union, with a single market and with physical infrastructure (roads, rail, fibre, power grid) that connects all parts of Africa internally. Second, Africa needs good diplomatic relations with China, India, the Arab states and Latin America.
The US and Europe have never been reliable and robust partners for Africa. Too much greed, self-interest, and taint of imperial legacy. Perhaps that will change. It needs to change.
Debt is one of the greatest challenges for Africa in 2024. What?strategies?do you?recommend?for sustainable?debt?management and relief to promote?economic?stability?and growth??
All debts on the books of debt-distressed countries should be extended for 30 years at a 4% fixed interest rate (in USD). This should apply to debts owed to the World Bank, IMF, regional development banks, and bilateral creditors. Wherever possible (depending on the terms of collective action clauses) countries should also restructure their private bonds for 30-year maturities. In the future, all development finance should be at maturities of at least 30 years.
Do you?think, as the World Bank does?for example, that?2024 will?be?the year?of debt?default in Africa? After?Zambia, Ghana… There are some?risks?in Egypt, Somalia, Tunisia?etc.?
As I have said, all of these countries should have their debts restructured for at least 30 years.
At the same time, sub-Saharan Africa is preparing for a slight uptick in economic growth this year. How can African?economies?leverage?technology?and innovation to spur?growth?and address?issues such?as unemployment?and income?inequality??
Every African country that does not yet have one should immediately establish a National Science and Technology Fund to support at least 1% of GDP in research and development. That should be true in the poorest as well as the richest countries.
Africa needs an education renaissance. This starts with educational opportunity – at public expense – for every child.
The African Union should establish a fund at the union level also at the scale of at least $25bn per year at the start. Africa needs to undertake its own R&D on a wide range of topics: AI, disease, ecology, climate, agriculture, and more.
Given?the recent?experience with the Covid-19 pandemic, what?steps?should?African?nations take?to strengthen?their?healthcare?systems?and enhance?pandemic?preparedness??
Africa’s healthcare system should be based on community health delivery, with community health workers bolstered by AI and digital systems.
Telemedicine can greatly strengthen service delivery. Expatriate doctors in Europe and the Middle East should come back to Africa part of the year for public service.
Isn’t that rather idealistic?
I’d go even further: the taxes they pay in the US, Europe, and Middle East should be remitted to Africa to help cover healthcare costs.
What?role?does?education?play?in economic?transformation, and how can African?nations improve?their?education?systems?to meet?the demands?of a rapidly?changing?global economy??
Education is the single most important investment for Africa. The basic standard should be this: 100% of children should complete upper-secondary education. At least 30% of children finishing upper-secondary education should go on for a bachelor’s degree. Africa needs an education renaissance. This starts with educational opportunity – at public expense – for every child. African countries should take on new long-term debt if necessary to ensure universal secondary education.
Youth?unemployment?is?a significant?challenge in many?African?countries. What?strategies?do you?recommend?to create?meaningful?employment?opportunities?for the youth??
Education and skills and then a dynamic economy to hire well-educated and high-skilled youth in both public and private sectors. The key, though, is skilling.
The private sector should also participate in the continent’s economic development. What?policies?would?encourage responsible?business practices on the continent??
The private sector will expand rapidly and dynamically under four conditions: a well-trained labour force; good infrastructure, notably power, digital, water, rail, and roads; a single African market, in which goods can be shipped quickly and tariff-free across Africa; and open investment relations with China, India, Latin America, Turkey, and the Arab Nations and with the BRICS.
To what?extent?do you?believe?regional?integration?and cooperation?among?African?nations are critical?for sustainable?economic?development??
African unity is essential. Africa is 1.4 billion people, and will be around 2.5 billion people by 2050. This is an enormous, young, dynamic market. A single market will be a great – indeed vital – propellant of Africa’s development in the future.
In this context, how can African?economies?ensure?that?economic?growth?is?inclusive, benefiting?a broad?spectrum?of the population and reducing?income?inequality??
Here again, there are several key conditions: universal access to quality education; universal access to public healthcare; universal access to quality urban infrastructure; a robust pension system for retirement income; peace; an end to discrimination against women and against minority groups; and social protection for families with young children, disabled, indigent, and elderly populations.
Africa’s trajectory during 2023-2063 can be like China’s during 1980-2020. Africa has the makings of a fast-growth period.
All of this requires a robust budget and solid tax collections, as well as payments by the rich countries commensurate with their historical obligations.
Doesn’t the digital economy?also have a role to play?in fostering?financial?inclusion and economic?empowerment?in Africa? What?policies?can facilitate?this?transition??
The digital economy is the great equaliser in global development. India is booming as it deploys digital technologies – for payments, government services, education, healthcare and other activities.
Africa needs a solid fibre network, strong connectivity with the global backbone, 5G and an AU leadership that strongly supports the digital economy.
What?strategies?do you?recommend for African?nations to recover?economically?from?the impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic?and build?resilience?against?future crises??
Africa needs a 40-year plan, 2023-2063 to become a high-income region by 2063, and a major part of the world economy. This is possible. Africa’s trajectory during 2023-2063 can be like China’s during 1980-2020. Africa has the makings of a fast-growth period. To achieve this, Africa needs to move to a high-investment mode along the six priority areas that I outlined earlier. Education and skills will be the most important engines of Africa’s economic dynamics.
Agriculture is?also an important sector?for many?African?economies. How can these?nations achieve?agricultural transformation to enhance?food?security?and contribute?to economic?growth??
Agriculture is now a high-skill, capital-intensive, information-intensive, sector. Africa needs to deploy mechanisation, artificial intelligence, big data, irrigation, new crop varieties, etc., to upgrade agriculture. The share of the workforce that is in agriculture will plummet as machines and AI replace low-skilled agricultural workers. That’s okay. The future of most jobs is in cities, not in rural areas. Africa will urbanise very rapidly in the future.
How can African?nations address?issues of corruption and improve?governance?to create?an environment?conducive?to sustainable?economic?development??
The key to corruption is transparency, online government systems, digital economy, and trained civil services. Also, the multinational companies need to pay their taxes honestly. Much of the corruption is in the mining and hydrocarbons sector. Special attention should be paid to these international sectors as they are very abusive and pay large bribes to government officials.
