德国作为工业超级大国的日子已经屈指可数了

德国作为工业超级大国的日子已经屈指可数了

https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/biz/archives/2024/02/12/2003813420?

作者：Wilfried Eckl-Dorna、Jana Randow、Carolynn Look 和 Petra So

2024 年 2 月 12 日

去年秋天，在杜塞尔多夫一个巨大的生产车间里，号角演奏者阴沉的音调伴随着一家百年工厂的最后一幕。

在闪烁的照明弹和火把中，1,600 名失业人员中的许多人面无表情地站着，看着工厂最后一个产品——钢管——在轧机上被磨平成完美的圆柱体。 该仪式结束了德国工业化鼎盛时期开始的长达 124 年的运行，并经历了两次世界大战，但未能在能源危机的余波中幸存下来。

在过去的一年里，这样的结局已经多次重复，凸显了德国面临的痛苦现实：它作为工业超级大国的日子可能即将结束。

1 月 17 日，通勤者穿过德国斯图加特中央车站建筑工地附近的道路。随着许多公司参与每周工作四天的试点，德国振兴疲软经济的努力即将出现实验性转变。 工会表示，这不仅可以让员工更健康、更快乐，而且还能提高工作效率。

自2017年以来，欧洲最大经济体的制造业产出一直呈下降趋势，并且随着竞争力的削弱，下降速度正在加快。

“老实说，希望不大，”GEA Group AG 首席执行官 Stefan Klebert 说，GEA Group AG 是一家制造机械供应商，其历史可追溯至 1800 年代末期。 “我真的不确定我们能否阻止这种趋势。 许多事情必须很快改变。”

德国工业机器的基础已经像多米诺骨牌一样倒塌了。 美国正在远离欧洲，并寻求与跨大西洋盟友竞争气候投资。 中国正在成为一个更大的竞争对手，并且不再是德国商品的贪得无厌的买家。 对一些重型制造商来说，最后的打击是俄罗斯大量廉价天然气的终结。

去年7月13日的鸟瞰图显示了位于德国西部杜伊斯堡港的DIT杜伊斯堡联运码头的集装箱。 上周周一官方数据显示，由于欧元区国家需求疲软，德国12月份出口大幅下滑，为欧洲最大经济体令人失望的一年外贸画上句号。

除了全球动荡之外，柏林的政治瘫痪也加剧了长期存在的国内问题，例如破旧的基础设施、劳动力老龄化和繁琐的官僚作风。

德国的教育体系曾经是一个优势，但却是长期缺乏公共服务投资的象征。 Ifo 研究所估计，到本世纪末，数学技能的下降将使经济损失约 14 万亿欧元（15 万亿美元）。

在某些情况下，工业减速是小步进行的，例如缩减扩张和投资计划。 其他的则更为明显，例如转移生产线和裁员。 在极端情况下——比如瓦卢瑞克 SACA 的管道厂，曾经是倒闭的工业巨头曼内斯曼股份公司的一部分——结果是永久关闭。

德国仍然拥有一批令人羡慕的小型敏捷制造商，德国央行和其他机构拒绝接受全面去工业化即将到来的观点。 但随着改革陷入停滞，尚不清楚什么会减缓衰退。

德国财政部长克里斯蒂安·林德纳在本月早些时候的彭博社活动中表示：“我们不再具有竞争力。” “我们变得越来越穷，因为我们没有增长。 我们正在落后。”

米其林 SCA 北欧负责人玛丽亚·罗特格 (Maria Rottger) 表示，工业竞争力的衰退可能使德国陷入螺旋式下降。 这家法国轮胎制造商将关闭其两家德国工厂，并在明年底之前缩小第三家工厂的规模，此举将影响超过 1,500 名工人。 美国竞争对手固特异轮胎橡胶公司也有类似的两个工厂计划。

她在最近的一次采访中表示：“尽管我们的员工积极主动，但我们已经无法以有竞争力的价格从德国出口卡车轮胎了。” “如果德国不能在国际环境中具有竞争力的出口，该国就会失去其最大的优势之一。”

其他经常出现下降的例子。 GEA 集团将关闭美因茨附近的一家泵厂，转而在波兰建立一个新工厂。 汽车零部件制造商大陆集团去年 7 月宣布计划放弃一家生产安全和制动系统零部件的工厂。 其竞争对手罗伯特博世有限公司正在裁员数千名。

2022 年夏季的能源危机是一个主要催化剂。 尽管避免了冻结房屋和配给等最坏的情况，但价格仍然高于其他经济体，这增加了工资上涨和监管复杂性带来的成本。

德国呆滞的官僚机构也未能保持经济增长

王牌，即使公司准备投资。 GEA 在德国西部小镇厄尔德的一家工厂安装了太阳能发电设备，生产可将奶油与牛奶分离的设备。 去年一月，即开工前两个月，该公司申请了供电许可证，目前仍在等待批准——距该项目启动已近两年。

此外，中国现在还在多方面给德国制造麻烦。 除了向先进制造业的战略转移之外，这个亚洲超级大国经济放缓进一步削弱了对德国商品的需求。 与此同时，来自中国的廉价竞争令德国气候转型的关键行业感到担忧——而不仅仅是电动汽车。

德国面临的逆风需要适应。 对于风扇和通风机生产商 EBM-Papst 来说，工业危机意味着收购一家陷入困境的供应商。 为了保持灵活性，该公司将生产从汽车行业转向热泵和数据中心零部件。 它还希望将一些管理任务转移到东欧或印度。

“这不仅仅是能源，”EBM-Papst 首席执行官 Klaus Geisdorfer 在接受采访时表示。 “这也是德国员工数量的问题，目前德国的员工情况非常紧张。”

他补充说，十年之内，劳动年龄人口将太少，无法保持经济像今天一样运转。

Germany's days as an industrial superpower are numbered

https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/biz/archives/2024/02/12/2003813420?

By Wilfried Eckl-Dorna, Jana Randow, Carolynn Look, and Petra So

Feb 12, 2024 

In a cavernous production hall in Dusseldorf last fall, the somber tones of a horn player accompanied the final act of a century-old factory.

Amid the flickering of flares and torches, many of the 1,600 people losing their jobs stood stone-faced as the glowing metal of the plant’s last product — a steel pipe — was smoothed to a perfect cylinder on a rolling mill. The ceremony ended a 124-year run that began in the heyday of German industrialization and weathered two world wars, but could not survive the aftermath of the energy crisis.

There have been numerous iterations of such finales over the past year, underscoring the painful reality facing Germany: its days as an industrial superpower might be coming to an end.

Commuters cross a road near construction work at Stuttgart Central Station in Germany on Jan. 17. Germany’s struggle to revive its sluggish economy is about to take an experimental turn as a host of companies take part in a pilot to work a four-day week, with labor unions saying it could not only leave staff healthier and happier, but also more productive.

Manufacturing output in Europe’s biggest economy has been trending downward since 2017, and the decline is accelerating as competitiveness erodes.

“There’s not a lot of hope, if I’m honest,” said Stefan Klebert, chief executive officer of GEA Group AG, a supplier of manufacturing machinery that traces its roots to the late 1800s. “I am really uncertain that we can halt this trend. Many things would have to change very quickly.”

The underpinnings of Germany’s industrial machine have fallen like dominoes. The US is drifting away from Europe and is seeking to compete with its transatlantic allies for climate investment. China is becoming a bigger rival and is no longer an insatiable buyer of German goods. The final blow for some heavy manufacturers was the end of huge volumes of cheap Russian natural gas.

An aerial view on July 13 last year shows containers at the DIT Duisburg Intermodal Terminal at Duisburg harbor in western Germany. German exports fell sharply in December on weaker demand from eurozone countries, official data showed on Monday last week, capping a disappointing year in foreign trade for Europe’s largest economy.

Alongside global volatility, political paralysis in Berlin is intensifying long-standing domestic issues such as creaking infrastructure, an aging workforce and the snarl of red tape.

Germany’s education system, once a strength, is emblematic of a long-term lack of investment in public services. The Ifo research institute estimates that declining math skills will cost the economy about 14 trillion euros (US$15 trillion) in output by the end of the century.

In some cases, the industrial downshift is taking place in small steps like scaling back expansion and investment plans. Others are more evident like shifting production lines and trimming staff. In extreme instances — like Vallourec SACA’s pipe plant, once part of fallen industrial giant Mannesmann AG — the consequence is permanent closure.

Germany still has an enviable roster of small, agile manufacturers, and the Bundesbank and others reject the notion that full-blown deindustrialization is anywhere close. But with reforms stalled, it’s unclear what will slow the decline.

“We are no longer competitive,” German Minister of Finance Christian Lindner said at a Bloomberg event earlier this month. “We are getting poorer because we have no growth. We are falling behind.”

Fading industrial competitiveness threatens to plunge Germany into a downward spiral, Michelin SCA northern Europe head Maria Rottger said. The French tiremaker is shutting two of its German plants and downsizing a third by the end of next year in a move that will affect more than 1,500 workers. US rival Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co has similar plans for two facilities.

“Despite the motivation of our employees, we have arrived at a point where we can’t export truck tires from Germany at competitive prices,” she said in a recent interview. “If Germany can’t export competitively in the international context, the country loses one of its biggest strengths.”

Other examples of decline surface regularly. GEA Group is closing a pump factory near Mainz in favor of a newer site in Poland. Autoparts maker Continental AG announced plans in July last year to abandon a plant that makes components for safety and brake systems. Rival Robert Bosch GmbH is in the process of slashing thousands of workers.

The energy crisis in the summer of 2022 was a major catalyst. While worst-case scenarios like freezing homes and rationing were avoided, prices remain higher than in other economies, which adds to costs from higher wages and regulatory complexity.

Germany’s sluggish bureaucracy also is not keeping pace, even when companies are prepared to invest. GEA installed solar capacity at a factory in the western German town of Oelde, where it makes equipment that can separate cream from milk. It applied for permits to feed in the power in January last year, two months before starting construction and is still waiting for approval — nearly two years after initiating the project.

Furthermore, China is now causing trouble for Germany in a number of ways. On top of its strategic shift into advanced manufacturing, a slowdown of the Asian superpower’s economy is sapping demand for German goods even further. At the same time, cheap competition from China is worrying industries key for Germany’s climate transition — and not just electric cars.

Germany’s headwinds require adaptation. For EBM-Papst, a producer of fans and ventilators, the industrial crisis meant acquiring a struggling supplier. And to stay nimble, the company shifted production to components for heat pumps and data centers and away from the auto sector. It’s also looking to move some administrative tasks to eastern Europe or India.

“It’s not just energy,” EBM-Papst CEO Klaus Geisdorfer said in an interview. “It’s also staff availability in Germany, which is now very tense.”

Within a decade, the working-age population will be too small to keep the economy functioning as it does today, he added.