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黑天鹅作者：美国正面临债务膨胀的「死亡螺旋」
彭博资讯报导，他在29日晚间在避险基金Universa Investments的一个活动上说，「（美国）国会害怕承担做正确事情的后果，只要他们继续延长举债上限并达成协议，最终将看到债务螺旋上升，就像死亡螺旋（death spiral）一样。」
塔雷伯将不断膨胀的债务负担形容成是「白天鹅」，显然会对市场构成风险，有别于可能没什么预警就发生的「黑天鹅」事件。
虽然他没有详述市场可能遭遇的后果，但他认为，除了债务膨胀之外，美国经济比前几年更容易受冲击也是「白天鹅」事件。塔雷伯表示，因为全球化使世界各地区的联系比过往更加紧密，单一地区的问题可能波及全球。
当被问及美国经济的「螺旋」最终将如何发展时，塔雷伯说，「我们需要外部的一些东西出现，可能是某种奇迹。」「这让我对西方世界的整个政治体系感到有点悲观」。
担心美国债务问题的可不止塔雷伯一人。本月稍早，美国前财长鲁宾（Robert Rubin）称联邦赤字使美国经济陷入糟糕境地；贝莱德副董事长席德布兰德（Philipp Hildebrand）也警告，任何债务违约都可能威胁到美元表现。
《黑天鹅》作者纳西姆·塔勒布表示，美国正走向债务“死亡螺旋”
詹妮弗·索尔 2024 年 1 月 30 日
《黑天鹅》作者纳西姆·塔勒布表示，如果政客们不控制支出，美国将陷入债务“死亡螺旋"，“债务螺旋就像死亡螺旋，”塔勒布在周一的一次活动中表示。
《黑天鹅》作者纳西姆·塔勒布表示，由于债务不断增加以及政客无力应对这一问题，美国正面临“死亡螺旋”。
据彭博社报道，正确预测了 2008 年金融危机的 Universa Investments 顾问对美国债务状况发出了可怕的警告，今年年初联邦债务余额首次突破 34 万亿美元。
塔勒布本周在Universa Investments举办的一次活动中表示，只要国会保持快速支出步伐，这些债务就会继续堆积，这可能给美国经济带来灾难性后果。
塔勒布表示，事实上，美国债务上升是一只“白天鹅”，与“黑天鹅”事件相比，这种事件对市场构成了明显的风险，“黑天鹅”事件可能在没有太多预警的情况下发生。 塔勒布表示，尽管美国的债务负担早在成为真正问题之前就已向专家通报过，但与前几年相比，美国的债务负担正使经济更容易受到冲击。
“只要国会继续延长债务上限并进行交易，因为他们害怕做正确事情的后果，这就是政治体系的政治结构，最终就会出现债务螺旋式上升。” 据彭博社报道，塔勒布周一在 Universa Investments 的一次活动上表示。 “债务螺旋就像死亡螺旋，”他补充道。
当被问及冲击将如何发挥时，塔勒布表示，这种死亡螺旋需要“从外部引入一些东西，或者可能是某种奇迹”，并补充说，这种情况让他对西方的政治体系更加悲观 。
一段时间以来，专家们对美国过快的举债步伐敲响了警钟，但最近在美联储开始于2022年大举加息后，他们的担忧更加强烈。联邦基金利率已上调至5.25%-5.5，为历史最高水平。 自 2001 年以来，借贷成本不断上升。这意味着偿债成本也有所上升，美国为政府融资而发行的债券要支付更多利息。
投资者预计美联储今年将降息，但由于央行官员密切关注通胀，利率仍可能在较长时间内保持在较高水平。 高盛此前预测，这可能有助于到 2025 年将美国债务成本推至新高。
专家表示，借贷本质上会引发通货膨胀，这意味着美国的高债务负担可能会与美联储的通胀斗争发生“冲突”。 华尔街一些最悲观的评论员警告称，存在滞胀债务危机的风险，这是一种最坏的情况，即高债务和高通胀导致经济增长停滞。
由于立法者继续在支出问题上争论不休，国会尚未批准 10 月份开始的财年预算。 国会领导人上周批准了另一项推迟政府关门的法案，要求政策制定者在 3 月 1 日之前制定预算细节。
'Black Swan' author Nassim Taleb says the US is heading for a debt 'death spiral'
Jennifer Sor Jan 30, 2024
- The US is headed for a debt "death spiral" if politicians don't rein in spending, Nassim Taleb said.
- "The Black Swan" author said debt troubles will continue if Congress can't
- "A debt spiral is like a death spiral," Taleb said at an event on Monday.
Per Bloomberg, the Universa Investments advisor who correctly called the 2008 financial crash cast a dire warning about the US debt situation, which has seen the federal debt balance notch $34 trillion for the first time ever to start the year.
As long as Congress keeps up its rapid pace of spending, those debts are going to continue to pile up, which could have disastrous consequences for the US economy, Taleb said this week at an event held by Universa Investments.
In fact, rising debt in the US is a "white swan," Taleb said, and is an event that poses an obvious risk to markets versus a "black swan" event, which can occur without much warning. Despite being broadcast to experts well before it becomes a true problem, the US debt load is making the economy more vulnerable to shocks than it has been in previous years, Taleb said.
"So long as you have Congress keep extending the debt limit and doing deals because they're afraid of the consequences of doing the right thing, that's the political structure of the political system, eventually you're going to have a debt spiral," Taleb said at an event for Universa Investments on Monday, per Bloomberg's report. "A debt spiral is like a death spiral," he added.
That death spiral would necessitate "something to come in from the outside, or maybe some kind of miracle," Taleb said, when asked how the shock would play out, adding that the situation has made him more pessimistic about the political system in the West.
Experts have been sounding the alarm on the US's rapid pace of borrowing for a while, but have voiced louder concerns recently after the Fed began to aggressively raise interest rates in 2022. The Fed funds rate has been raised to 5.25%-5.5, the highest cost of borrowing since 2001. That means that debt service costs have also risen, and the US is paying more interest on the bonds it's issuing to finance the government.
Investors are anticipating the Fed to cut rates this year, but interest rates are still likely to stay higher-for-longer as central bankers keep an eye on inflation. That could help push US debt costs to a new record by 2025, Goldman Sachs previously predicted.
Borrowing is inherently inflationary, experts say, meaning the US's high debt load could "collide" with the Fed's inflation fight. Some of Wall Street's most bearish commentators are warning of the risk of a stagflationary debt-crisis, a worst-case scenario where high debt and high inflation result in stagnant economic growth.
Congress has yet to approve a budget for the fiscal year that began in October as lawmakers continue to spar over spending. Congressional leaders last week approved another bill to delay a government shutdown, giving policymakers until March 1 to work out details on the budget.
