风萧萧_Frank
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哥伦比亚大学经济学家：2023年世界可以信赖中国经济的强劲增长
https://www.jeffsachs.org/interviewsandmedia/28239b48x54zs8rthm7lgl533s2aac
环球时报2023年3月13日
编者注：
面对持续的地缘政治冲突和政治干扰正常经贸合作带来的外部巨大不确定性，中国将今年经济增长目标定为5%。 这一温和的目标反映了中国对实现经济稳定增长、推动转型、实现高质量发展的信心。 美国错误政策可能对全球经济造成更严重影响，今年中国经济能否实现强劲复苏？ 中国应如何继续发挥世界经济稳定力量和贡献者的重要作用？ 美国著名经济学家、哥伦比亚大学教授杰弗里·萨克斯（Jeffrey Sachs）在接受环球时报记者王毅采访时，分享了他对这些话题的看法。
GT：2023年中国经济复苏前景如何？ 会出现V型复苏吗？
萨克斯：基于5G、绿色能源和其他核心基础设施的持续建设，中国经济有望实现强劲增长。 中国也将成为东南亚、非洲和拉丁美洲技术和基础设施的主要出口国。 我认为我们可以指望强劲的增长。
环球时报：多年来，西方对中国经济的看法在两个极端之间交替：“中国崩溃论”或“中国威胁论”。 彭博社最近表示，中国经济复苏可能是“全球通胀的下一个重大威胁”。 您对这些叙述有何看法？
萨克斯：中国既不会崩溃，也不会威胁世界经济。 这些都是美国评论人士的过激反应。
GT：2023年全球经济低迷，面临的主要挑战是什么？ 世界主要经济体应如何共同应对这些挑战？ 如何避免将全球经济推向更加不稳定的境地？
萨克斯：全球复苏与繁荣的关键是和平。 不幸的是，美国非但没有解决地缘政治紧张局势，反而加剧了这些紧张局势。 美国故意试图将世界经济划分为美国主导的部分和中国主导的部分。 这是危险且具有破坏性的，包括对美国本身。 如果美国同意停止尝试将北约扩大到乌克兰和格鲁吉亚，乌克兰战争可能会迅速结束。 北约扩张的企图是美俄冲突的根本原因。
环球时报：在美国推动贸易与科技“脱钩”的背景下，中国经济在解决通胀、供应链中断等全球经济问题中发挥着怎样的作用？
萨克斯：中国应该注重与整个发展中国家保持良好的经济关系，并希望欧洲不要盲目追随美国的新保守主义政策，煽动对华冲突。
环球时报：您如何看待中国经济转型的进展以及中国推动高质量发展的努力？ “一带一路”倡议是否日益成为一项基于清洁能源、5G和其他先进技术的可持续发展计划？
萨克斯：中国正走在良好的道路上，但需要加快向绿色、数字化发展转型。 这是因为气候危机正在全球范围内迅速恶化。 未来几年内，我们的气温可能会比工业化前升高 1.4 摄氏度。 包括对中国在内的干扰将是非常大的。 幸运的是，中国可以帮助在光伏、先进数字技术、绿色氢、电动汽车、电池存储、绿色钢铁（使用氢而不是焦煤）和其他关键技术方面引领世界。
环球时报：您关注2022年10月召开的中国共产党第二十次全国代表大会吗？ 中国共产党在中国发展中发挥什么作用？ 中国政策的一致性和中国的稳定对世界意味着什么？
萨克斯：中国追求“共同繁荣”、基于中国古代伦理的21世纪解决方案、全球和谐与可持续发展，都是中国政策框架的重要组成部分。 我支持所有这些。 我特别希望中国继续推行绿色“一带一路”，帮助发展中国家建设和资助面向21世纪的现代化、绿色、数字基础设施。
GT：您认为另一场冷战是可以避免的吗？ 从短期和中长期来看，您如何看待美国对华遏制战略给世界带来的后果？
萨克斯：美国的政策完全是错误的，而且是基于对历史的无知。 美国政客认为，尽管美国人口只占世界人口的4%，但美国有权利领导世界。 美国政客对世界历史、地理或世界其他地区的利益知之甚少。
这一切都非常悲伤和危险，因为它引发了战争的可能性。 美国政治和大众媒体往往过于简单化复杂的问题，并提出严重偏见和自私的观点。 最重要的是，我们需要对话、相互理解、谈判、裁军和缓解紧张局势。
World can count on robust growth of China’s economy in 2023: economist at Columbia University
https://www.jeffsachs.org/interviewsandmedia/28239b48x54zs8rthm7lgl533s2aac
Editor's Note:
In the face of great external uncertainty caused by continued geopolitical conflicts and political interference in normal economic and trade cooperation, China has set its economic growth target at 5 percent this year. The modest target mirrors China's confidence in achieving steady economic growth while promoting transformation for quality growth. As the US' misguided policy stokes the possibility of more severe impacts on the global economy, will China realize a strong economic recovery this year? How should China continue to play the important role of a stabilizing force and contributor to the global economy? In an interview with the Global Times reporter Wang Yi (GT), Jeffrey Sachs (Sachs), renowned American economist, and professor at Columbia University, shared his views on these topics.
GT: What is China's economic recovery outlook in 2023? Will there be a V-shaped recovery?
Sachs: China can expect robust economic growth based on the continuing build-out of 5G, green energy, and other core infrastructure. China will be a major exporter of technology and infrastructure to Southeast Asia, Africa, and Latin America as well. I think we can count on robust growth.
GT: For years, the Western perception of the Chinese economy has alternated between two extremes: The "China collapse" theory, or the "China threat" theory. Bloomberg said recently that China's economic recovery could be the "next big threat to global inflation." What's your opinion on these narratives?
Sachs: China is neither about to collapse nor threaten the world economy. These are overheated reactions by US commentators.
GT: What are the major challenges to the gloomy global economy in 2023? How should major economies across the world jointly tackle these challenges? How can pushing the global economy toward a more precarious situation be avoided?
Sachs: The key to global recovery and prosperity is peace. Unfortunately, the US is exacerbating geopolitical tensions rather than solving them. The US is deliberately trying to divide the world economy between a US-led component and a China-led component. This is dangerous and destructive, including to the US itself. The war in Ukraine could end quickly if the US agreed to stop trying to expand NATO to Ukraine and Georgia. That attempt at NATO expansion is the underlying reason for the US-Russia conflict.
GT: Amid the US' push for trade and tech "decoupling," what is the role of China's economy in solving global economic problems, such as inflation and supply chain disruptions?
Sachs: China should focus on maintaining good economic relations with the entire developing world, and hope that Europe doesn't blindly follow the US neoconservative policy of stoking conflict with China.
GT: How do you view the progress of China's economic transformation and China's efforts to promote high-quality development? Is the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) increasingly becoming a sustainable development plan based on clean energy, 5G, and other advanced technologies?
Sachs: China is on a good course, but needs to accelerate the transformation of green, digital development. This is because the climate crisis is worsening globally very rapidly. We will likely reach the 1.4C warming above pre-industrial temperatures within the next few years. The disruptions, including to China, will be very large. Fortunately, China can help lead the world in photovoltaics, advanced digital technologies, green hydrogen, electric vehicles, battery storage, green steel (using hydrogen rather than coking coal), and other pivotal technologies.
GT: Did you follow the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China (CPC) held in October 2022? What is the role of the CPC in China's development? What does the consistency of China's policy as well as China's stability mean for the world?
Sachs: China's pursuit of "common prosperity," 21st-century solutions grounded in ancient Chinese ethics, and global harmony and sustainable development, are all notable parts of China's policy framework. I support all of these. I especially hope that China will continue with a Green BRI to help developing countries build and finance modern, green, digital infrastructure for the 21st century.
GT: Do you think another Cold War is avoidable? In the short and medium-to-long term, how do you see the consequences of the US containment strategy against China to the world?
Sachs: The US policy is completely misguided, and based on ignorance of history. American politicians believe that it is America's right to lead the world, even though the US represents a mere 4 percent of the world population. American politicians know very little about world history, geography, or the interests of other parts of the world. It's all very sad and dangerous, as it stokes the possibility of war. American politics and mass media tend to vastly oversimplify complex issues, and to present heavily biased and self-serving views. Most of all, we need dialogue, mutual understanding, negotiation, disarmament, and reduction of tensions.
