Douglas Macgregor Ukrainian offensvies are nonsense

Douglas Macgregor: Dead-end Road

Ukrainian offensvies are nonsense

Douglas Macgregor July 1, 2023
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xHDtOevaBm0

Today Russia is stronger, I would argue economically than it was before; the War Began our sanctions have been ultimately quite helpful to the Russians; they are not a part of our Western Financial system to the extent that they might have been hurt by us seriously how have the sanctions been helpful to Russia well;  they've managed to sell all of their Energy Products all of their minerals everything agricultural products through others at higher prices that have ultimately reached their target destination, in Europe and other parts of the world anyhow; so the amount of hard currency if you will from the West that's pouring in has actually increased, at the same time, they've discovered that they could sell
virtually everything if they needed to China and India to a lesser extent those two
countries these are over a billion people in each country enormous economies; they want to do business with Russia; so that the absence of the European Market Per Se has not churned out to be this terrible experience; that everyone in the west assumed it would be wasn't that a chess game a lot of people
saw coming; because both India and China cannot self or will never be self-sufficient on energy, well I suppose so uh you know I don't
know that anybody regarded as a chess
game because the difference between
Putin whatever mistakes he made
in terms of assumptions
shrink to insignificance next to the
mistakes that we've made I would argue
because we made assumptions about Russia
that were just completely wrong as just
like the rest of the world number one
Russia is a backward economy that will
collapse quickly if we sanction it in
other words that they're they're not a
true nation state in the western sense
they don't have a developed economy they
can't survive yeah we regarded it as
some sort of Mega Island yeah yeah they
don't have a real scientific industrial
base now suddenly we see all of these
factories
uh in Russia running 24 hours a day
seven days a week producing ammunition
weapons missiles all these things we
said they were going to run out of very
very quickly and couldn't replenish
we said that no one would support Russia
that Russia would be isolated well in
fact I I would argue that most of the
world actually backs Russia against us
that we and the Europeans are
increasingly on an island all by
ourselves
and Russia is not going to fall apart
Russia has become more cohesive this is
a state that rests on the foundation of
Orthodox Christianity and Russian
ethnicity now there are plenty of people
inside Russia who are not ethnic
Russians those people are treated very
well they are treated as equal Partners
inside Russia all you have to do is look
at the churches
you know and the chechens are brilliant
Soldiers by the way I keep hearing
people say Well they're not really that
good well you could not be more wrong
those people are superb and they are
fiercely loyal and by the way if you go
back to the czarist period every czarist
Army had contingents in it that were
kazakhs uzbeks chechens others turkic
peoples tartars working with them and
fighting with them against whomever the
enemy was whether it was the Ottomans or
the austrians or whomever
so the point is that Russia is more
cohesive than we are if you're looking
for internal unrest discontent divisive
forces you can find those in Spades
inside American society but that's not
the case in Russia at all so when you
when you look at the economy wise one
may say yeah they're doing better today
but even prior to the award they had a
big birth and death problem I don't know
if you've seen the numbers on their
birth and death rate if you want to pull
that out that's not a uh good luck the
closest thing you can compare that to as
a case study they're having more people
dying than being born there's only one
other country can compare this to and
you know who that is it's one of their
allies is China those guys have the
similar issue India is a complete
opposite
and we're not doing that great ourselves
but uh Russia is not a good place when
it goes it comes down to that but I want
to go back to the thought wait a minute
before you leave yeah Putin agrees with
you yeah and Putin has tried very very
hard to reverse that he the first thing
he tried to do is to prevent The Brain
Drain everybody with any Talent OR
ability had been getting out of Russia
since 1992. so he's tried to reverse
that I think he's had some success he's
tried to encourage people to have fun by
the way if you if you don't mind how did
he do the first one I'm curious
basically by finding employment for
scientists and Engineers that otherwise
had nowhere to go he said oh we've got
to find employment for these people so
that we can keep them here we have to
reward them for their talent I think
he's done reasonably well there when it
comes to the rest of the economy you
know turning around this attitude that
why should I bring two or three children
into a world that's dominated by
alcoholic men that are destroying
themselves and committing suicide has
turned out to be pretty tough I think
he's made some progress there I think
this war is going to help him enormously
because I think the war is Awakening A
sense of Russian identity that is far
far stronger and greater than anything
we thought existed all you have to do is
talk to the people that are inside
Russia and ask Russians what they think
everybody says well they're all afraid
of Putin so they're not going to tell
you the truth that's not true that's
just not true and we're hearing as
exactly what I said Russia is closer
United more today than I think it has
been in at least 30 years or 40 years
okay so so then as a as a competitor
whoever you go up against you're going
to do better
if you
put them as being overly calculating
meaning it's it's naive to just say it's
a simplistic War let's just do this this
is what's going to happen we're going to
be this right okay
you know for me sometimes you know how
an enemy
uh forces you to do something to come
out and say see I told you this is what
they wanted to do the entire time so for
example I want to get your feedback on
this so
I you know NATO is trying to do whatever
they can to get Ukraine to be part of
NATO no that's not what we're trying to
do no that's exactly what they're trying
to do and this is why they promised us
they would never do this and now they're
going to be doing this nope that's not
what they're doing so he's pushing
pushing pushing pushing pushing and then
all of a sudden you know the article
comes up from Guardian if you want to
show that article real quick I think
it's Guardian uh uh you know which one
I'm talking about NATO accelerating the
membership uh NATO allies back Fast
Track membership for Ukraine says
cleverly U.S foreign secretary says
Ukraine has evolved quickly as zelinski
tells Summit it can be engine of green
growth so all of this time that they're
talking about this this is now leading
to you you know we have to use this as
an opportunity to bring them into NATO
then Putin is going to come out and say
well I told you guys this was the entire
intention the entire you know this is
why I'm doing XYZ because I knew you
guys were doing this is he that
calculating of a guy that is forcing his
opponent and his enemy to expose their
hand or is it just accidentally that
this happened because he didn't think
the war was going to last this long
[Music]
yeah yeah I do and uh I think the man's
highly intelligent
and I there's no doubt in my mind that
he views what you just said as a welcome
development that the his opponent is
essentially revealing his hand saying
this is what we're really all about
but I do think at the beginning he still
thought there was a degree of Goodwill
in the west that he could exploit
and there is none that's what he's found
out unpacked on
I think because of his experience uh
watching various administrations
remember he met with bush
he is subsequently met with Obama and
and ultimately with Trump
each time he was be trying to understand
us trying to understand what we were
about and I think he listened to what
was said in private and he convinced
himself that these people really aren't
the enemy
you know that they are unreasonably
obsessed with or fascinated with NATO
which he doesn't see any reason for
I mean quite frankly he you know since
he had one of the things that's very
funny is people say well he was going to
invade Eastern Europe well wait a minute
you told me back in March that his army
was small and incapable
and now you're telling me he was always
going to invade I mean which which is
it's a bunch of nonsense so he wasn't
going to invade he wanted to do business
with everybody badly
because he knows that if Russia is to
continue to develop and grow he needs
technology
most of the technology that he wants is
in Germany so Germany is enormously
important to Russia and always has been
well now he's turning away because he's
trying to substitute uh Chinese Indian
and other economic powers for German
cooperation
but the bottom line is that I think uh
Putin miscalculated up front there was
no good will he thought there was
and now he knows it so what are you
going to do about it Mr Putin and I
think the Russians are all standing
around saying okay we like you you've
done a great job
uh you know the Army is ready it's up
and running it's now large enough and
strong enough to do what needs to be
done Mr Putin what are you going to do
yeah and you know makes sense we're
going to see how much of that was you
know wasn't expecting it he was just
kind of going in to do it and then now
all of a sudden the hands are being
shown but let's look at the other side
you know the other side is anytime uh it
happens in sports it happens in families
it happens in companies oh look what's
going on in Amazon six of Jeff Bezos
c-suite Executives all reasons on the
same day you know hey look at the Elon
Musk today with Twitter
1250 employees resigned that place is a
civil war today right and they'll say
things like this and us as readers we're
not in it we're like oh wow shit's
hitting the fan in right you know
Twitter shit's in the fan in this place
if you look at it where with a Wagner
group okay Wagner group or whatever they
want to call themselves
um these guys come out and he's a
billionaire himself he's done well for
himself and hey our goal is to do this
and our goal is to do that and then
story comes out saying Putin disappears
after Wagner uh uh cool chaos Daily Mail
Russian President Vladimir put has not
been seen publicly since he addressed
the nation regarding the Wagner group
failed
amidst rumors of Putin's flight to
tavare region U.S Secretary and state
Anthony blinken wonderful guy by the way
noted cracks emerging in the Russian
Administration Putin in a pre-recorded
message termed the Wagner troops move as
a staff in the back of our troops around
the people of Russia what we are facing
now is a treason okay
and then obviously talks about who
evgeny is and what he's in all the stuff
which I'd love for you to talk about
that as well
when that happens from the outset it's
very easy for the enemy to say look
what's going on over there even his
people don't support his decision he's
about to be replaced it's about to be
very quickly like the last time this
happened we saw this 25 years ago when
this took place within a week somebody
came in and took over Russia that's
exactly what's going to be happening
right uh opposing message of how you
said this thing's going to be done in
Ukraine very quickly the other side said
he's about to fall in the next week
watch this thing's gonna happen very
quickly that's not a good look when that
happens where the leader of a country
has to leave because they're worried
about what's going to happen to him so
one from the optic standpoint two from
he's got an 89 approval rating if he
does why are people going against him
and there's clips of people supporting
giveni saying hey thank you for doing
this Optics matter
well the people that were thinking uh
evgeny progression were not thanking him
for rising up in some sort of Uprising
they were thanking him and the Vagner
group for their
heroic performance on behalf of the
Russian people
and those same people that were doing
that also said you know we love Putin we
love our president
I I think people first of all made a
mistake of assuming that what was
happening was an uprising it never was
and Peter Goshen made that very clear
we'll learn more in the future
but what we know at this point is the
following first of all Putin didn't flee
anywhere Putin wasn't afraid of anything
as thirty thousand troops he did take
ten thousand in the ministry of interior
forces these are
very very heavily armed police and moved
them into various areas because they had
intelligence already on many Ukrainian
terrorist cells they simply went out
there and eliminated all of these that
was simply a case of let's go do it get
it over with in the event that there's
something going on between them and this
group in in the Wagner group
it turns out that uh Putin did talk
directly to a pregosian that came out
today
assuming that's true he he claimed that
he was talking to lukashenko who's the
president of Russia now if that's in
fact true and Putin talked to him then
the whole thing ended very quickly
and the argument for ending it according
to pregosian was we don't want to we'll
want to shed any Russian blood so then
the question is why did you do it
and one of the key reasons I think that
there are two possibilities one is
I think pagosian was speaking for a lot
of people who were very dissatisfied
with karasimov and shoigu because they
feel strongly that this Ukrainian War
should be brought to a close let's stop
it the only way to stop it is to advance
to attack and crush the enemy
and their view is that there's so little
left now on the Ukrainian side why are
we waiting let's get this done the
longer we wait the greater the
possibility that NATO and his friends
will find an excuse to intervene and we
don't want that to happen
Putin's taking a position while I'm
holding back just in case NATO
intervenes in other words I've got
hundreds of thousands of troops I've got
a huge strategic Reserve if they're dumb
enough to intervene then I've got that
you know on hand that I can employ
that's a debate that is unfolding we're
hearing about a shake-up in the Russian
high command you'll recall that Putin
had a meeting with some journalists a
small group of them and he talked to
them for three hours something you never
hear anybody in the United States do
any politician that is and he was very
straightforward and Frank we had the
transcripts and one of those things that
came up was a discussion about the
senior leadership
and one of the journalists said you know
we're we're concerned because we're
getting feedback from a lot of soldiers
that we can do better that we need more
aggressive more capable leaders and he
said you know I think there's something
to that and I've got to look into it
I've got to look at it I think we're
going to see a shake-up in the high
command now there's a an unsubstantiated
rumor out there that the
commander-in-chief of Russian Airborne
forces is now taking over the theater I
don't know
I haven't seen it confirmed anywhere
that could be the case also in the same
report garazimov is returning to his
essential duties as chief of the general
staff he's no longer going to run
anything in connection with the war in
Ukraine
shoigu seems to be shoigu he's Putin's
friend I don't think Putin holds him
because he's a civilian he's not a
professional Soldier directly
responsible for anything that's not
right
so I think we'll see some shake up in
the high command and that may foreshadow
some offensive action
now here's another theory that this was
a carefully constructed show for the
West to convince everybody that Russia
was falling apart and see who said what
and so forth I don't buy that I don't
either I buy the first argument yeah and
people say well you know my gosh how
could this happen
George Marshall relieved 32 core and
division commanders during less than
three years of fighting during World War
II
uh large numbers of senior officers were
removed and and changed and moved around
and given new commands
uh this is this is not unusual in war it
happens if it doesn't happen you're in a
lot of trouble I mean one of the
complaints that I've had about the U.S
military and the Army in particular is
no change
why no change well it's a stagnant pool
of people and talent you need fresh
blood fresh eyes and I'm sure that
Putin has discovered that's required in
the in the Russian military and I think
we'll see it happy Fourth of July too we
have a special event that's coming up
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there in Miami ball conference it'll be
August 30th to September 2nd this
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or above get registered looking forward
to spending three days with you in Miami
thank you what do you think are the
chances that Ukraine's eventually going
to be part of NATO non-existent
non-existent yes that's not going to
happen no and this is the problem we
don't seem to understand that if we
continue to insist at whatever remains
of Ukraine become part of NATO we're
going to see hundreds of thousands of
Russian troops on the Polish border
they're they're just going to roll right
across Ukraine it will not stop until
they hit the Polish border in the
Romanian border that's very clear
that's not what he wants and re and I
keep trying to explain this to people if
you know anything about Western Ukraine
I grew up with people from Western
Ukraine they do not want anything to do
with the Russians and Putin knows that
he doesn't want to run the place doesn't
want to govern it he just doesn't want
it to be a platform for attack against
Russia which is what we tried to turn it
into
I also think the majority of ukrainians
that are still there and maybe even the
majority of their way they may not like
Russians but I don't think they support
this war
and the reason I say that is if you go
back to the election that brought
solenski to power when he was picked up
from nowhere as a comedian and sponsored
by kolomoski who's a very powerful
oligarch in Ukraine
he ran on a peace platform he said if
I'm elected I'll make peace with Russia
well virtually everybody something
something like 89 percent went out and
voted for it they wanted peace with
Russia there were only a very few people
in the far west of Ukraine that that
didn't support that so I I don't think
uh zielinski is by any stretchy
imagination as widely supported as
people think and you know you talk about
their situation right now he has press
gangs press gangs or groups of people
that go out and forcibly drag ukrainians
into the Ukrainian military because they
need Manpower he's now doing that in the
Far Western portions of Ukraine where he
said he wouldn't do it in Galicia and in
the Carpathian what used to be called
the Carpathian military District
ukrainians are leaving ukrainians are
moving out there are reports now that
ukrainians are actually stoning and in
some cases shooting at these press gangs
from the Ukrainian Army in in Western
Ukraine that they don't want to go to
war they don't want to fight we're
getting reports that platoon and
company-sized elements down in southern
Ukraine are defecting they're simply
saying look we've had it we can't do
this anymore and they're coming across
and surrendering and very very smartly
the Russians from the beginning have
treated all of the Ukrainian prisoners
very very well
they have not harmed them they have not
abused them or brutalized them they
facilitated prisoner exchanges whereas
we've got videotape of Ukrainian
Soldiers kneecapping with with the
AK-47s Russians Russian knees of
soldiers that are in captivity we have
them we have video of them executing
because the Ukrainian soldiers that did
actually posted it
on YouTube
on the internet so
he he's run a very good campaign in the
sense that he's made it very clear we
don't want to kill you we're not really
the enemy we want this to end too
and it has had an effect inside Ukraine
that we are not hearing about these
things are not reported to us in the
western media because it undermines the
narrative did you see the Wall Street
Journal story about a few days ago of
Wagner Mutiny revives U.S fears over
control of Russia's nuclear weapons the
Wagner parliamentary party military uh
paramilitary group failed Insurrection
Russia led by evgeny has reignited
concerns over control of Russia's
nuclear Arsenal as U.S Secretary of
State Anthony blinken put it anytime you
have a major country like Russia that
has signs of instability that's
something of concern despite these
tensions U.S officials stated that they
detected no irregular activities or
changes in alert levels related to
Russia's nuclear forces is that a real
threat or is that just a you know story
to over
exaggerate what's really going on to put
fear in the American people absolutely
second one yes absolutely you're not
hearing anything truthful from this
Administration
and the media is conspiring with the
administration to misinform the public
it's simple truth the same thing's
happening in Western Europe nobody is
being told the truth the only way to get
the truth is to talk to people who are
over there on the ground fortunately I
have some people who are willing to do
that and pass me information and we
forget that there are people in Poland
that have grandparents who are
ukrainians living in eastern Ukraine we
forget that there are people who are
Slovakian some are check who actually
have brothers-in-law or cousins working
in banks in Moscow
in other words there are people over
there that are telling the truth
I just don't think uh we're getting it
and I don't see any evidence that that's
going to change anytime soon and that
worries me because if we continue to
push this false narrative and we make it
abundantly clear that there will be no
negotiation which is what we're
effectively saying right now Putin has
the following choice you can pull all
your forces out of Ukraine
you can prepare to commit suicide in
public and remove yourself from office
and then we'll talk
I mean that's absurd there's no chance
of any of that happening
so what where are we headed I think
we're headed to lots of Russian troops
on the Polish border unless someone
wakes up in Europe and I think it could
happen in Germany and it could happen in
France where those governments are very
fragile right now I think uh Schultz's
approval rating is about 32 or 33
percent if they get rid of him and you
get a new Coalition involving the
alternative for Germany and maybe even
the left uh on the far left those two
groups are all opposed to this war and
there is no support in the German
population for going to war with Russia
if you ask anybody in Germany are you
prepared to suit up and go to the
Eastern Front everybody says are you out
of your mind of course not
if that were to happen then Putin would
have someone he could talk to in Berlin
and Berlin then could conceivably lead
us out of this Dead End Road
but that hasn't happened yet and again I
think that's something else that Putin
is watching for I think that's another
reason why he's held back
Russia and Germany grown close over our
energy deals and pipelines and there was
this uh wasn't there a story narrative
that they you know thanks to the
Russians turning off the pipeline as
part of the Ukraine conflict these poor
Germans are going to be freezing in the
winter and so aren't they friendly to in
recent times fairly dependent on Russia
and probably you know uh in a position
where it might not be a bad idea to be
the to be the uh you know moderating
voice in 90 right in 1914
Russia and Germany were each other's
principal trading partners
in other words when the war broke out
they were already each other's principal
trading partners interestingly enough
the British were entirely dependent on
the Optics industry in Germany for all
of its military applications mom uh I
mean these things happen sometimes dumb
ideas become policy without anybody
Consulting the with on the wisdom of
doing something in 1941
Russia and Germany reach others
principal trading partners Germany could
not have launched any offensive in the
West in 1940 without copious amounts of
Steel and coal and iron and oil and gas
and so forth from Russia impossible
grain poured into Germany in other words
this is a symbiotic relationship that's
been there for a long time this existed
between Prussia and Russia and the
prussians were always pro-russian as a
result and worked to avoid any conflict
this was bismarck's argument
the austrians were were less open-minded
but they too sort of shut up and colored
because they were in a position to do
much my point is this is a natural
relationship it benefits both sides we
have looked at this and said this is
evil and bad because this makes Germany
dependent upon Russia but we forget that
Russia was also dependent upon Germany
and what happened in 1941 in July that
changed everything it's called Lend
Lease from the United States
we compensated Russia with everything
that had formally been receiving from
Germany technology Steel
locomotives you name it all the
resources aluminum all the precious
metals everything that the Communists in
Moscow needed to survive the German
assault we started providing immediately
in July 1941 and we were not even part
of the war it was illegal and FDR did
that now I'm not here to debate the
wisdom of that that's another subject
but my point is Russia also is dependent
on Germany just as Germany has been
dependent on Russia so the notion that
it's a one-way street is just inaccurate
and wrong happy Fourth of July too we
have a special event that's coming up
with Tom Brady Mike Tyson and we'll give
erra in Miami ball conference it'll be
August 30th to September 2nd this
weekend for Fourth of July we're running
a special buy one get one free bring
your spouse bring your business partner
bring your running mate if you haven't
yet registered click on the link below
or above get registered looking forward
to spending three days with you in Miami
foreign
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